Poll

how many people will have died from covid 19 by the end of july?

130-145k
4 (18.2%)
145-155k
9 (40.9%)
155-165k
6 (27.3%)
165-175k
1 (4.5%)
over 175k
2 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 22

Voting closed: July 04, 2020, 11:43:35 AM

Author Topic: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)  (Read 1913 times)

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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #50 on: July 28, 2020, 05:37:33 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks. 
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Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #51 on: July 28, 2020, 09:24:16 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.


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Offline bucket

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #52 on: July 28, 2020, 09:49:22 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Hard to tell what flu season will bring.

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #53 on: July 28, 2020, 10:08:31 PM »
Schools are a major wildcard

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #54 on: July 28, 2020, 11:12:05 PM »
yeah.  i think we have another 50k or so deaths baked in.  after that, who knows.  depends on how stupid we are.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #55 on: July 28, 2020, 11:14:41 PM »
yeah.  i think we have another 50k or so deaths baked in.  after that, who knows.  depends on how stupid we are.

We elected trump so....
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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #56 on: July 29, 2020, 06:48:07 AM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
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Online Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #57 on: July 30, 2020, 08:13:02 AM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
We go over 155K today.

The Sept Death Poll is going to be a challenge to get right.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #58 on: July 30, 2020, 06:31:16 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
We go over 155K today.

The Sept Death Poll is going to be a challenge to get right.

And it has happened
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Online sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #59 on: July 30, 2020, 08:06:00 PM »
we really accelerated into the finish line.  congratulations to the 155-165kers.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #60 on: July 30, 2020, 08:29:40 PM »
I finally won one!
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Offline steve dave

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #61 on: July 30, 2020, 08:45:05 PM »
Congrats lib


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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #62 on: July 30, 2020, 09:12:54 PM »
This crap has been as easy to predict as 2010's KSU football.

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #63 on: July 30, 2020, 10:43:48 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back.  When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:

300k by year's end is certainly possible.  I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.


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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #64 on: July 31, 2020, 07:25:18 AM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back.  When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:

300k by year's end is certainly possible.  I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.

Hey, I don't want it to happen either, but yeah, I can understand that it seems damn near impossible that this year still has over 150 days/5 months to more to go. Feels like the end of the year should happen like two months from now, but it was like when we crossed the "100 days to election!" a few days ago and I'm like, "100 days? holy crap this is still forever away"

That's just where my calcs (guess) came from, I will admit I think 300k is probably on the high end, but like, not that high. 
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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #65 on: July 31, 2020, 07:50:39 AM »
From a populous state viewpoint, who hasn't had a big spike above normal death rate? That will give some insight to what we can expect for the next few months.

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #66 on: July 31, 2020, 09:13:29 AM »
we really accelerated into the finish line.  congratulations to the 155-165kers.
Thanks, sys. I'm taking a [tragic] victory lap today.

What day/s does Death Poll 8.0 open / close?

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #67 on: July 31, 2020, 09:20:56 AM »
From a populous state viewpoint, who hasn't had a big spike above normal death rate? That will give some insight to what we can expect for the next few months.

I think Ohio? but it looks like a lot of states are slowly trending back up

https://rt.live/

Online sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #68 on: July 31, 2020, 12:16:47 PM »
What day/s does Death Poll 8.0 open / close?

i haven't thought of a question i'm excited to poll yet.  not really feeling a generic august poll, feels to me like those numbers are pretty set.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.