results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.
this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation. there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deathslink?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covidI don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deathslink?
Her dashboard shows ~100 more deaths than worldometers so yeah.probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covidI don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deathslink?
Her dashboard shows ~100 more deaths than worldometers so yeah.probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covidI don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deathslink?
https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/newswire/2020/06/12/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.
this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation. there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn). Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so. Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.
Deaths seem to have been largely detached from case fluctuations for a while. I know -- it doesn't make sense to me either, but the numbers are what the numbers are.results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.
this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation. there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn). Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so. Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.
What in your gut thinks the lagging indicator of deaths isn't going to rise given the rising case counts? Age of those geting new infections?
And we're there.results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.
this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation. there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn). Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so. Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.
I'd like to change my vote please.
I'd like to change my vote please.
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.I'd like to change my vote please.
Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
What a fair-weather fanI got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.I'd like to change my vote please.
Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
i'm devoted to the #data.What a fair-weather fanI got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.I'd like to change my vote please.
Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I'd like to change my vote please.
Our daily update is published. Both tests completed (758k) and new cases (65K) were near all-time highs. States reported 855 deaths, in line with the higher level we saw last week. pic.twitter.com/4T8GveVpMH
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) July 15, 2020
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last. doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.Yeah. Tentatively optimistic about this week's numbers so far, at least relative to last week's heavy acceleration.Our daily update is published. Both tests completed (758k) and new cases (65K) were near all-time highs. States reported 855 deaths, in line with the higher level we saw last week. pic.twitter.com/4T8GveVpMH
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) July 15, 2020
I'd like to change my vote please.
you voted 145-155k, iirc. that still has a decent shot of coming in.
I don't think so.I'd like to change my vote please.
you voted 145-155k, iirc. that still has a decent shot of coming in.
gonna be tight
gonna be tightI don't think so.
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.I'd like to change my vote please.
Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll rangesHe’s Nate Gold.
That's true. I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.gonna be tightI don't think so.
i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.
we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go. we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off). so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.
We go over 150K today. It is going to be very close.I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.
the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past. starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!To be fair, deaths were going away. Now they aren't.
Nationally, new case growth seems to be flattening, which would be very good news. Testing growth has also slowed, and reports of testing backlogs make the data harder to interpret, but we may really be seeing cases plateau again.
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) July 27, 2020
(Mondays highlighted.) pic.twitter.com/9ykk1dTNm3
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
yeah. i think we have another 50k or so deaths baked in. after that, who knows. depends on how stupid we are.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
We go over 155K today.“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
We go over 155K today.“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
The Sept Death Poll is going to be a challenge to get right.
Yeah I want to walk that back. When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back. When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
300k by year's end is certainly possible. I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.
we really accelerated into the finish line. congratulations to the 155-165kers.Thanks, sys. I'm taking a [tragic] victory lap today.
From a populous state viewpoint, who hasn't had a big spike above normal death rate? That will give some insight to what we can expect for the next few months.
What day/s does Death Poll 8.0 open / close?
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 5, 2020
Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,401
Yesterday: 1,176
One week ago (7/29): 1,447
Newly reported cases
T: 52K
Y: 52K
7/29: 67K
Newly reported tests
T: 664K
Y: 696K
7/29: 853K
Positive test rate
T: 7.8%
Y: 7.4%
7/29: 7.8%
“Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from Mar 15 to Jul 25, according to CDC estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags..54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period.” https://t.co/lOMirGxOTn
— Tom Inglesby (@T_Inglesby) August 8, 2020