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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on July 01, 2020, 11:43:35 AM

Title: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 01, 2020, 11:43:35 AM
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 01, 2020, 11:58:54 AM
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Cire on July 01, 2020, 02:02:26 PM
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: michigancat on July 01, 2020, 02:21:55 PM
I took a risk, thinking they'll start to rise soon.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 01, 2020, 02:25:41 PM
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on July 01, 2020, 03:11:26 PM
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covid
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 01, 2020, 03:24:38 PM
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covid
Her dashboard shows ~100 more deaths than worldometers so yeah. 

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/newswire/2020/06/12/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Cire on July 01, 2020, 04:18:30 PM
crap this is from the middle of May


https://www.wftv.com/news/9investigates/unaccounted-deaths-could-increase-floridas-covid-19-death-toll-experts-say/GKE4C4327BDENMVVYSJ5NFN3HE/


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Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Cire on July 01, 2020, 04:19:34 PM
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242552796.html

May 6


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Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 01, 2020, 04:29:29 PM
Yeah Cire, I don't think either of those is totally out of the ordinary.  The Miami Herald one notes a minor disparity in the death total (like ~60 I think without going back and opening it up again), and the WFTV one says that back in march, covid deaths don't match the excess deaths.  That happens quite a bit throughout the states.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on July 01, 2020, 04:35:34 PM
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covid
Her dashboard shows ~100 more deaths than worldometers so yeah. 

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/newswire/2020/06/12/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

after reading that article i'm having a hard time blaming the state of florida...they had the opportunity to post the number of cases at 69,069 and they went for it. nice. :gocho:
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Phil Titola on July 01, 2020, 05:44:27 PM
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.

What in your gut thinks the lagging indicator of deaths isn't going to rise given the rising case counts?  Age of those geting new infections?
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 01, 2020, 06:03:11 PM
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.

What in your gut thinks the lagging indicator of deaths isn't going to rise given the rising case counts?  Age of those geting new infections?
Deaths seem to have been largely detached from case fluctuations for a while.  I know -- it doesn't make sense to me either, but the numbers are what the numbers are.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 01, 2020, 11:48:31 PM
i'm surprised to see how many are guessing on the lower end.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: wetwillie on July 02, 2020, 06:10:32 AM
Not sure what the over 175k crowd knows that I don’t but I’m a little concerned.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on July 02, 2020, 08:32:41 AM
I can't decide how to vote here. I wish the deadline for voting was a bit later in July...


Ehh... I'm going with 155 - 165k. I think we stay between 800 - 1200 / day this month
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: steve dave on July 02, 2020, 08:34:35 AM
went with 145-155. I think we can get under that with our improved treatment. rise in hospitalizations kept me here though.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: passranch on July 02, 2020, 11:07:25 AM
It's gonna be within a few thousand of 145k IMO.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: michigancat on July 02, 2020, 11:10:44 AM
I just did 600/day for 30 days which would put us right in 145-155
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Trim on July 02, 2020, 11:30:23 AM
I factored in "lol america" and went 155-165.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Spracne on July 02, 2020, 04:36:49 PM
I'm the only vote for 165-175  :gocho: You'll all see...  :driving:
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 06, 2020, 05:08:43 PM
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.
And we're there.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Cire on July 07, 2020, 11:29:39 AM
Still don’t believe maga states are reporting truthfully.


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Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on July 13, 2020, 09:07:08 AM
Any guesses as to what day we hit 100K new cases reported in one day (before the virus magically disappears with the heat of summer)?

I'm going with 7/27/2020.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 13, 2020, 09:13:50 AM
I'd like to change my vote please.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: memphis on July 13, 2020, 10:19:14 AM
I'd like to change my vote please.

  :horrorsurprise:
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Phil Titola on July 13, 2020, 10:58:36 AM
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 13, 2020, 11:47:20 AM
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Phil Titola on July 13, 2020, 12:01:52 PM
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
What a fair-weather fan
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 13, 2020, 12:51:43 PM
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
What a fair-weather fan
i'm devoted to the #data.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 13, 2020, 01:20:48 PM
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 15, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last.  doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.

Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 15, 2020, 05:13:09 PM
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last.  doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.

Yeah.  Tentatively optimistic about this week's numbers so far, at least relative to last week's heavy acceleration.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on July 21, 2020, 02:47:31 PM
The US is now over 4,001,000 COVID cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: michigancat on July 21, 2020, 03:11:23 PM
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.

gonna be tight
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 21, 2020, 03:16:56 PM
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.

gonna be tight
I don't think so. 
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 21, 2020, 03:24:40 PM
gonna be tight
I don't think so.

i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.

we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go.  we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off).  so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Dugout DickStone on July 21, 2020, 03:29:39 PM
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.

He grabbed me on the way off.  Thanks bro
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: michigancat on July 21, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll ranges
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Kat Kid on July 21, 2020, 05:19:07 PM
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll ranges
He’s Nate Gold.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 21, 2020, 09:33:39 PM
gonna be tight
I don't think so.

i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.

we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go.  we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off).  so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
That's true.  I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close. 
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 23, 2020, 07:12:48 PM
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.

the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past.  starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on July 27, 2020, 08:25:14 AM
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.

the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past.  starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
We go over 150K today. It is going to be very close.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Phil Titola on July 27, 2020, 09:09:39 AM
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 27, 2020, 10:21:06 AM
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!
To be fair, deaths were going away.  Now they aren't.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: IPA4Me on July 27, 2020, 02:20:17 PM
Thanks, Texas.

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Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 27, 2020, 11:26:24 PM
my guess is that we'll hit a peak/plateau at around 1500 deaths/day in two weeks.

Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: waks on July 28, 2020, 04:04:53 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Phil Titola on July 28, 2020, 04:06:51 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

Wasn't he going to come back in May when this was all over?
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: waks on July 28, 2020, 04:10:18 PM
In his defense he could have meant May 2021.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: cfbandyman on July 28, 2020, 05:37:33 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks. 
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 28, 2020, 09:24:16 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: bucket on July 28, 2020, 09:49:22 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Hard to tell what flu season will bring.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: michigancat on July 28, 2020, 10:08:31 PM
Schools are a major wildcard
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 28, 2020, 11:12:05 PM
yeah.  i think we have another 50k or so deaths baked in.  after that, who knows.  depends on how stupid we are.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: star seed 7 on July 28, 2020, 11:14:41 PM
yeah.  i think we have another 50k or so deaths baked in.  after that, who knows.  depends on how stupid we are.

We elected trump so....
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: cfbandyman on July 29, 2020, 06:48:07 AM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on July 30, 2020, 08:13:02 AM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
We go over 155K today.

The Sept Death Poll is going to be a challenge to get right.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: cfbandyman on July 30, 2020, 06:31:16 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
We go over 155K today.

The Sept Death Poll is going to be a challenge to get right.

And it has happened
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 30, 2020, 08:06:00 PM
we really accelerated into the finish line.  congratulations to the 155-165kers.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: star seed 7 on July 30, 2020, 08:29:40 PM
I finally won one!
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: steve dave on July 30, 2020, 08:45:05 PM
Congrats lib


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Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Trim on July 30, 2020, 09:12:54 PM
This crap has been as easy to predict as 2010's KSU football.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: DQ12 on July 30, 2020, 10:43:48 PM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back.  When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:

300k by year's end is certainly possible.  I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: cfbandyman on July 31, 2020, 07:25:18 AM
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back.  When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:

300k by year's end is certainly possible.  I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.

Hey, I don't want it to happen either, but yeah, I can understand that it seems damn near impossible that this year still has over 150 days/5 months to more to go. Feels like the end of the year should happen like two months from now, but it was like when we crossed the "100 days to election!" a few days ago and I'm like, "100 days? holy crap this is still forever away"

That's just where my calcs (guess) came from, I will admit I think 300k is probably on the high end, but like, not that high. 
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: IPA4Me on July 31, 2020, 07:50:39 AM
From a populous state viewpoint, who hasn't had a big spike above normal death rate? That will give some insight to what we can expect for the next few months.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on July 31, 2020, 09:13:29 AM
we really accelerated into the finish line.  congratulations to the 155-165kers.
Thanks, sys. I'm taking a [tragic] victory lap today.

What day/s does Death Poll 8.0 open / close?
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: michigancat on July 31, 2020, 09:20:56 AM
From a populous state viewpoint, who hasn't had a big spike above normal death rate? That will give some insight to what we can expect for the next few months.

I think Ohio? but it looks like a lot of states are slowly trending back up

https://rt.live/
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on July 31, 2020, 12:16:47 PM
What day/s does Death Poll 8.0 open / close?

i haven't thought of a question i'm excited to poll yet.  not really feeling a generic august poll, feels to me like those numbers are pretty set.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on August 05, 2020, 05:35:41 PM
two days into the new cov2 stats week (which starts on tuesdays), deaths aren't up this week over last.  not what i'd have expected.

Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: bucket on August 05, 2020, 05:44:33 PM
I heard on the national news today that positive cases were down this week, but that total testing was also down. I wasn't sure why that would be the case.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: sys on August 05, 2020, 05:49:26 PM
i think testing is down because of inclement weather in florida and texas along with reporting delays in california.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on August 07, 2020, 08:11:49 PM
California becomes the third state to go over 10k deaths.
Title: Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
Post by: chum1 on August 08, 2020, 05:59:28 AM