Poll

how many people will have died from covid 19 by the end of july?

130-145k
4 (18.2%)
145-155k
9 (40.9%)
155-165k
6 (27.3%)
165-175k
1 (4.5%)
over 175k
2 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: July 04, 2020, 11:43:35 AM

Author Topic: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)  (Read 5750 times)

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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2020, 10:58:36 AM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2020, 11:47:20 AM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2020, 12:01:52 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
What a fair-weather fan

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2020, 12:51:43 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
What a fair-weather fan
i'm devoted to the #data.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2020, 01:20:48 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #30 on: July 15, 2020, 04:59:21 PM »
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last.  doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1283517747377221632
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #31 on: July 15, 2020, 05:13:09 PM »
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last.  doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1283517747377221632
Yeah.  Tentatively optimistic about this week's numbers so far, at least relative to last week's heavy acceleration.


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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #32 on: July 21, 2020, 02:47:31 PM »
The US is now over 4,001,000 COVID cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #33 on: July 21, 2020, 03:11:23 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.

gonna be tight

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #34 on: July 21, 2020, 03:16:56 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.

gonna be tight
I don't think so. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2020, 03:24:40 PM »
gonna be tight
I don't think so.

i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.

we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go.  we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off).  so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #36 on: July 21, 2020, 03:29:39 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.

He grabbed me on the way off.  Thanks bro

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #37 on: July 21, 2020, 03:37:59 PM »
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll ranges

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #38 on: July 21, 2020, 05:19:07 PM »
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll ranges
He’s Nate Gold.

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2020, 09:33:39 PM »
gonna be tight
I don't think so.

i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.

we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go.  we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off).  so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
That's true.  I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #40 on: July 23, 2020, 07:12:48 PM »
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.

the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past.  starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #41 on: July 27, 2020, 08:25:14 AM »
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.

the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past.  starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
We go over 150K today. It is going to be very close.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #42 on: July 27, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #43 on: July 27, 2020, 10:21:06 AM »
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!
To be fair, deaths were going away.  Now they aren't.


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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #44 on: July 27, 2020, 02:20:17 PM »
Thanks, Texas.

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Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #45 on: July 27, 2020, 11:26:24 PM »
my guess is that we'll hit a peak/plateau at around 1500 deaths/day in two weeks.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1287881158382911490
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline waks

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #46 on: July 28, 2020, 04:04:53 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #47 on: July 28, 2020, 04:06:51 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

Wasn't he going to come back in May when this was all over?

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #48 on: July 28, 2020, 04:10:18 PM »
In his defense he could have meant May 2021.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #49 on: July 28, 2020, 05:37:33 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks. 
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