Poll

how many people will have died from covid 19 by the end of july?

130-145k
4 (18.2%)
145-155k
9 (40.9%)
155-165k
6 (27.3%)
165-175k
1 (4.5%)
over 175k
2 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 22

Voting closed: July 04, 2020, 11:43:35 AM

Author Topic: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)  (Read 1919 times)

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Offline memphis

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2020, 10:19:14 AM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

  :horrorsurprise:

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2020, 10:58:36 AM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2020, 11:47:20 AM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2020, 12:01:52 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
What a fair-weather fan

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2020, 12:51:43 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.
What a fair-weather fan
i'm devoted to the #data.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2020, 01:20:48 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #31 on: July 15, 2020, 04:59:21 PM »
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last.  doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.

we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #32 on: July 15, 2020, 05:13:09 PM »
so far, pretty much no evidence of acceleration in any metric this week compared to last.  doesn't fit an easy explanation, at least for deaths.

Yeah.  Tentatively optimistic about this week's numbers so far, at least relative to last week's heavy acceleration.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #33 on: July 21, 2020, 02:47:31 PM »
The US is now over 4,001,000 COVID cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Offline michigancat

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #34 on: July 21, 2020, 03:11:23 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.

gonna be tight

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2020, 03:16:56 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

you voted 145-155k, iirc.  that still has a decent shot of coming in.

gonna be tight
I don't think so. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #36 on: July 21, 2020, 03:24:40 PM »
gonna be tight
I don't think so.

i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.

we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go.  we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off).  so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #37 on: July 21, 2020, 03:29:39 PM »
I'd like to change my vote please.

Are you off the deaths will continue to drop bandwagon?
I got off that bandwagon last week when deaths stopped dropping.

He grabbed me on the way off.  Thanks bro

Offline michigancat

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #38 on: July 21, 2020, 03:37:59 PM »
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll ranges

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2020, 05:19:07 PM »
sys it's really impressive how good you are at making these poll ranges
He’s Nate Gold.
@bentren

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #40 on: July 21, 2020, 09:33:39 PM »
gonna be tight
I don't think so.

i'm probably betraying my agreement with michigancat by saying that i don't know if you think it is going to go well past 155 or stay well under it.

we'll hit 145 today or tomorrow, with 9-10 days to go.  we haven't been averaging 1k/day yet, but there is some evidence for acceleration in today's numbers (but one day could totally just be a one off).  so, yeah, looks to me like there are pretty good arguments for either side of 155k.
That's true.  I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #41 on: July 23, 2020, 07:12:48 PM »
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.

the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past.  starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #42 on: July 27, 2020, 08:25:14 AM »
I think we're going over but it'll be pretty close.

the hiatus in acceleration last week seems to be a thing of the past.  starting to look pretty unlikely that we'll finish the month under 155k.
We go over 150K today. It is going to be very close.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #43 on: July 27, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #44 on: July 27, 2020, 10:21:06 AM »
I followed the DQ(deaths are going away)12 piped piper and now I'm looking like a bewb!
To be fair, deaths were going away.  Now they aren't.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #45 on: July 27, 2020, 02:20:17 PM »
Thanks, Texas.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk


Offline sys

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #46 on: July 27, 2020, 11:26:24 PM »
my guess is that we'll hit a peak/plateau at around 1500 deaths/day in two weeks.

we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline waks

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #47 on: July 28, 2020, 04:04:53 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #48 on: July 28, 2020, 04:06:51 PM »
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

Wasn't he going to come back in May when this was all over?

Offline waks

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Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #49 on: July 28, 2020, 04:10:18 PM »
In his defense he could have meant May 2021.