Poll

how many people will have died from covid 19 by the end of july?

130-145k
4 (18.2%)
145-155k
9 (40.9%)
155-165k
6 (27.3%)
165-175k
1 (4.5%)
over 175k
2 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 22

Voting closed: July 04, 2020, 11:43:35 AM

Author Topic: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)  (Read 1914 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 35058
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« on: July 01, 2020, 11:43:35 AM »
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.


(Want to get rid of the ad? Register now for free!)
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 11:58:54 AM »
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Online Cire

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 14833
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 02:02:26 PM »
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths

Online michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 43379
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 02:21:55 PM »
I took a risk, thinking they'll start to rise soon.

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 02:25:41 PM »
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

  • smelly poor
  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1869
  • slide rule enthusiast
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 03:11:26 PM »
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covid

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2020, 03:24:38 PM »
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covid
Her dashboard shows ~100 more deaths than worldometers so yeah. 

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/newswire/2020/06/12/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Online Cire

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 14833
    • View Profile

Online Cire

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 14833
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2020, 04:19:34 PM »

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2020, 04:29:29 PM »
Yeah Cire, I don't think either of those is totally out of the ordinary.  The Miami Herald one notes a minor disparity in the death total (like ~60 I think without going back and opening it up again), and the WFTV one says that back in march, covid deaths don't match the excess deaths.  That happens quite a bit throughout the states.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

  • smelly poor
  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1869
  • slide rule enthusiast
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2020, 04:35:34 PM »
I don’t think it’s fair that Florida is lying their ass off about deaths
link?
probably that lady who worked for the florida department of health who got fired for revealing on twitter that she and others were being forced to lie and falsely record deaths that were because of covid
Her dashboard shows ~100 more deaths than worldometers so yeah. 

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/newswire/2020/06/12/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

after reading that article i'm having a hard time blaming the state of florida...they had the opportunity to post the number of cases at 69,069 and they went for it. nice. :gocho:

Offline Phil Titola

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 11501
  • He took it out!
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2020, 05:44:27 PM »
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.

What in your gut thinks the lagging indicator of deaths isn't going to rise given the rising case counts?  Age of those geting new infections?

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2020, 06:03:11 PM »
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.

What in your gut thinks the lagging indicator of deaths isn't going to rise given the rising case counts?  Age of those geting new infections?
Deaths seem to have been largely detached from case fluctuations for a while.  I know -- it doesn't make sense to me either, but the numbers are what the numbers are.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Online sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 35058
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2020, 11:48:31 PM »
i'm surprised to see how many are guessing on the lower end.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline wetwillie

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21467
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 06:10:32 AM »
Not sure what the over 175k crowd knows that I don’t but I’m a little concerned.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Online Sandstone Outcropping

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 2382
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 08:32:41 AM »
I can't decide how to vote here. I wish the deadline for voting was a bit later in July...


Ehh... I'm going with 155 - 165k. I think we stay between 800 - 1200 / day this month
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 08:41:10 AM by Sandstone Outcropping »

Offline steve dave

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 72573
  • Romantic Fist Attachment
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2020, 08:34:35 AM »
went with 145-155. I think we can get under that with our improved treatment. rise in hospitalizations kept me here though.

Offline passranch

  • Fan
  • *
  • Posts: 188
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2020, 11:07:25 AM »
It's gonna be within a few thousand of 145k IMO.

Online michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 43379
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2020, 11:10:44 AM »
I just did 600/day for 30 days which would put us right in 145-155

Online Trim

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 37180
  • "Tacky" -Kietz
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2020, 11:30:23 AM »
I factored in "lol america" and went 155-165.

Offline Spracne

  • Point Plank'r
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *
  • Posts: 12267
  • Distinguished Scholar/Gentleman
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2020, 04:36:49 PM »
I'm the only vote for 165-175  :gocho: You'll all see...  :driving:

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2020, 05:08:43 PM »
results determined from worldometers at midnight cst, july 31.

this one's pretty interesting again after a couple of polls that were mostly mere extrapolation.  there are genuinely conflicting data and its also long enough out that you have to guess at behavioral responses.
Went with what I think was a pretty safe guess, but not my gut.

Gut says 7 day average will continue to fall and we'll see an average daily number of <483 which we'd need to be less than 15k (we're at 547 rn).  Assumign we stay on the current trend, we'd be at 483 in the next 10 days or so.  Safe guess is we hit an average north of there accounting for BS backdating crap that messes up my data and also accounts for the possibility that the 7 day will be stagnant or slightly rise.
And we're there.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Online Cire

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 14833
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2020, 11:29:39 AM »
Still don’t believe maga states are reporting truthfully.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Online Sandstone Outcropping

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 2382
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2020, 09:07:08 AM »
Any guesses as to what day we hit 100K new cases reported in one day (before the virus magically disappears with the heat of summer)?

I'm going with 7/27/2020.

Offline DQ12

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 19862
  • #TeamChestHair
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 7.0 (the deaths of july)
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2020, 09:13:50 AM »
I'd like to change my vote please.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]