Author Topic: political hobbyist thread  (Read 15926 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #250 on: August 31, 2021, 07:17:21 PM »
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #251 on: September 03, 2021, 10:59:10 PM »
I always wonder with the retire early thing (I'd assume this means 50's), is it like a sabbatical for like 5 years or are they just done and onto hobbies, leisure, vacations, visits ect. I'm sure some do other things in their community that are beneficial too or maybe not hoa lol

My dad retired early to play golf and eff around, it lasted for two months before he wanted a job.

Offline steve dave

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #252 on: September 04, 2021, 07:56:57 AM »
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?

Offline chum1

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #253 on: September 04, 2021, 08:33:48 AM »
This sounds like the pre-MAGAfied GOP nightmare. Remember how they hated the lazy European work ethic of not working 40 hours per week and taking month long summer vacations?

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #254 on: September 04, 2021, 09:37:35 AM »
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?

You may not be able to buy happiness for yourself, but you sure as eff can for your kids.

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #255 on: September 04, 2021, 03:05:03 PM »
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?

you probably do work too much and should relax and spend more time with your family instead of making money for your kids to enjoy when you're dead, but not because of that tweet.  that guy's an idiot.

"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline kim carnes

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #256 on: September 04, 2021, 03:10:53 PM »
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?

This is something I’ve been thinking about every few weeks for the last 1-2 years

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #257 on: September 08, 2021, 04:22:28 PM »
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #258 on: September 08, 2021, 09:50:43 PM »
No surprise here
« Last Edit: September 14, 2021, 08:44:16 PM by MakeItRain »

Offline steve dave

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #259 on: September 14, 2021, 06:25:32 AM »
Be careful making politics your hobby.


Offline WildcatNkilt

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #260 on: September 14, 2021, 10:50:02 AM »
How do you get pelted with two eggs, but at the same time they both miss? 
Kansas City Blue Barbecue fan.

Offline mocat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #261 on: September 14, 2021, 12:52:18 PM »
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #262 on: September 14, 2021, 01:09:00 PM »
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?

No more so than Michael Tracey knows where the gym is

Online michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #263 on: September 14, 2021, 01:20:38 PM »
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?

he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.

Offline chum1

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #264 on: September 14, 2021, 01:32:09 PM »
I wouldn't be interested in going to watch him speak. I would be open to going to an auditorium to watch him sit in a chair on stage and silently tweet from his phone.

Offline Spracne

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #265 on: September 14, 2021, 03:40:36 PM »
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?

he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.

No he's not.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #266 on: September 14, 2021, 03:55:26 PM »
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?

he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.

No he's not.
Hey!!!

Offline steve dave

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #267 on: September 27, 2021, 08:01:19 PM »
I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
New congressional map for dallas


Offline chum1

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #268 on: September 30, 2021, 06:53:58 AM »
Seems like something like this would never happen, but they absolutely do hold a TON of political power.

Quote
The Civil War ended 156 years ago, but Mississippi did not remove the Confederate flag from its state flag until 2020, when it was threatened with losing access to college football championship games.



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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #269 on: September 30, 2021, 08:23:52 PM »
I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
New congressional map for dallas


I think proportional representation would make a bigger impact on that than RCV

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #270 on: September 30, 2021, 08:24:09 PM »
Also lol Dallas

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #271 on: September 30, 2021, 08:44:03 PM »
I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
New congressional map for dallas



Yikes

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #272 on: October 20, 2021, 09:33:12 AM »
Not sure if I can get sys to respond to this, but Bruenig has a pretty good take down of Shor on the Child Tax Credit. I think most people have kind of come to realize that 538 and specifically Nate Silver has become a bit of a parody of himself, and I think Shor is mostly interesting to read, but this is pretty shoddy stuff and makes me hope he isn't headed to Nate Silver land.

https://mattbruenig.com/2021/10/10/popularism-and-the-child-tax-credit/
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Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #273 on: October 20, 2021, 09:52:10 PM »
i don't want to be the board's designated shor apologist, and especially not on an issue where shor's opinion and mine are diametrically opposed (he thinks the ctc is good, i think it is bad).  but briefly, i agree with bruenig in that i think shor offers a pretty compelling argument for things democrats did in 2016 and 2020 that did not work and for why they did those things, even though at least some people in the dem political world knew they weren't working, but a less compelling case that these issues will necessarily persist and at best an unconvincing and amorphous prescription for how to remedy or reverse trends not in their favor.

that said, the rest of bruenig's piece is pretty much complete bullshit.  he misrepresents shor's argument for means testing, he misunderstands the data shor presented and last bit about permanency vs means testing is just lol stupid (or more likely dishonest).  shor's data is for a permanent and means tested ctc.

here are a couple of tweets where shor addresses the first two of these points, but if you're interested i'd encourage you to go look through shor's tweets from that time period.  he hasn't tweeted since, so it's easy to do and if you read through them you get a pretty decent idea of how he'd respond to bruenig's critique.


"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #274 on: October 21, 2021, 09:03:32 AM »
I read the Shor piece. I can't read the twitter stuff because it keeps re-directing me to login and I'm not going to, but I don't think I'm really missing much. Bruenig isn't claiming that it is his policy preference or even Shor's to not do the CTC, even though that is what the "polling says" and his point about Shor's case was that Shor acknowledges that he is talking strategy at the beginning and I agree with his strategic thinking for the most part at the top, but then he goes on to do that absurd bit about the polling data and that is where I part ways.
 
I think the more absurd part is Shor understands issue/policy polling to be almost universally b.s., subject to bias in the writing of polls etc. but then goes on to do it anyway while claiming he doesn't. The reason isn't simply the polling, is largely because the vast majority of the electorate simply does not think about policy questions in any logical/reasonable way that is recognizable or discernable to some egg head like shor. 

The fact that he knows all that and still attempts to make a living on claiming that he has the key to overcome it is a pretty good living if you can keep it up, but my premise (and I'm pretty sure Bruenig's reading) is that the whole exercise of carefully sifting through the data on the minutiae on the CTC benefit level means testing is absurd on its face and the fact that he then makes some charts and acts like there is some clear policy preference by the electorate to be discerned is just fool's gold.  That Shor then adds in the part about of the issues polled: "this version polls at 50% and another polls at 53% and we should re-design based on this" would be better if he just started out by acknowledging there just isn't much difference and so instead there is a strategic advantage or policy preference. I think there is a case to be made there, but the "data" just obscures this.
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