goemaw.com
General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on April 11, 2020, 01:47:34 AM
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pretty good discussion of how the theoretical winning sanders coalition didn't materialize with observations on the broader democratic coalition as currently construed.
https://twitter.com/zackbeauchamp/status/1248630104139464704
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Hindsight:
If lots of non-college and rural whites support Trump, why would you expect their peers who might not to have completely different priorities? Like, "your three best friends want THE WALL, but I can tell that you're interested in hearing a detailed account of what people get wrong about socialism and how its policies can actually work in America!"
Attacking a party "establishment" is not a good way to get members of that party to vote for you - and ESPECIALLY so with Southern black Democrats.
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I read a quarter of that, skimmed another quarter and gave up on the rest. The entire premise of that article is flawed. Know how I know that? The column is about what the campaign sought to accomplish but ultimately failed to do. Unless I missed it, there is no sourcing from Sanders or his campaign to verify any of this. It's presented as a factual post-mortem, but it's total theory, of which he seems to have no particular insight outside of some cherry picked quotes from other sources stripped of context.
I don't know why this column, which is a testament to the vastness of the internet, deserved to be the basis of a new thread. This is the greatest example of your blindspot, sys, this is a flawed slice of confirmation bias that has no value greater than any other progressive think piece out there.
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ok, thanks mir.
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I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment
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I don't understand his messaging at all. Embracing an unpopular term like "socialism"??? Totally unnecessary.
I thought the article did a nice job of highlighting his traditional view of class and describing how it doesn't really have an audience right now.
I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
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I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment
that's more or less the space warren tried to run in. progressive party-loyalist.
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I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities. but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.
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I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment
that's more or less the space warren tried to run in. progressive party-loyalist.
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment. (Why did Bernie tweet that when he was in the lead?????)
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I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities. but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.
I don't think that's what was happening this time.
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I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.
normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising. that's a progressive viewpoint.
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I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities. but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.
Yeah, people don't want to think they're wasting their vote. But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?
If so, Sanders' divisiveness may have hurt him more than the article suggests.
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I thought the article did a nice job of highlighting his traditional view of class and describing how it doesn't really have an audience right now.
Further, I'm not sure many of his supporters view class in the way that he does. Some do. It's an interesting question.
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But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?
yeah, i think voters valued it more than normal, but i think when people try to determine who is electable they mostly do so by projecting their own preferences onto the electorate.
that's not to say they aren't sincere in the effort or desire.
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But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?
yeah, i think voters valued it more than normal, but i think when people try to determine who is electable they mostly do so by projecting their own preferences onto the electorate.
that's not to say they aren't sincere in the effort or desire.
I don't think you're giving people enough credit. We differentiate betwen our own desires and the desires of others literally all the time. We often sacrifice.
I've seen several examples of women on twitter who both hate Biden and still wanted him to be the nominee because they hate Trump WAY more and figure Biden has the best chance to beat him. It would be absurd to say they prefer Biden to other Democrats that they do not hate. That might seem strange to me in other years, but it does not in 2020.
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i think the approach i mentioned is much more common.
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I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.
normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising. that's a progressive viewpoint.
If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?
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not sure i follow.
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I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.
normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising. that's a progressive viewpoint.
If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?
The people who took exception to him saying he was taking the democratic party were
1. Not paying attention to the Sanders led progressives and the rest of the party going back to 2016, and not limited to the election.
2. Not reflective of the people who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary. Political junkies conflate how they behave with how most people vote. Nobody cares about any of this crap. Biden beat Sanders the same reason that Hillary did. People know the Obama tie and the electability resonates more with people who aren't consumed with politics than an old independent from Vermont. The messaging from any of the progressives didn't matter much because most voters aren't interested in drilling down that far.
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If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?
This is a great thread.
https://twitter.com/michaelharriot/status/1235747743005642753
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Many people believe that causes associated with the Democratic Party and its leaders have done a lot of good things for a lot of people. Many volunteer their time or money on behalf of these causes. When Sanders talks about leading a revolution against the Democratic establishment, he's dismissing these people. They are part of the Democratic establishment. They have an affinity for it. They've made an investment in it.
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another discussion of the left's place in the democratic party as illuminated by sanders 2020.
https://twitter.com/LemieuxLGM/status/1249533896850468865
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Many people believe that causes associated with the Democratic Party and its leaders have done a lot of good things for a lot of people. Many volunteer their time or money on behalf of these causes. When Sanders talks about leading a revolution against the Democratic establishment, he's dismissing these people. They are part of the Democratic establishment. They have an affinity for it. They've made an investment in it.
That makes sense
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That article helps shed some light for me on why Sanders and his supporters might have thought he could get more of the non college and rural white vote. And also their seeming reluctance to distinguish between Repiblicans and Democrats. Overcommitment to the idea of class distinctions/conflicts.
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another discussion of the left's place in the democratic party as illuminated by sanders 2020.
https://twitter.com/LemieuxLGM/status/1249533896850468865
I agreed with a lot of the points but I think progressives should absolutely use presidential primary campaigns to test progressive debates. It helped push the entire party left over the past couple of elections IMO
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good interview with mcelwee.
https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1250967897012305920
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That was a good interview and I agree with pretty much all of it. The only issue I have is they didn't really get into why Biden won instead of why the progressives lost. Grunwald kind of addressed an adjacent point early in the interview, but if your would have replaced Joe Biden with another sturdy, known moderate without a close tie to Obama, someone like Tim Kaine, one of the progressives win. I don't think the messaging was the issue. The exit polling data and Biden's move left prove that the country is ready to move left as well, but Biden being a comfortable, but well worn blanket, carried the day.
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It was smart of AOC to identify as a Democrat, because most Democrats do believe the things that progressives believe.
Exactly. The Democratic Party is full of progressive ideas (just like the Republican Party is full of backward looking ideas). It's part of the party identity. I don't understand how people could be completely unaware of that or not care about it or want to dismiss it.
I’d propose a focus on paid family leave and childcare; ambitious climate action and clean energy; and lowering drug prices.
Pollsters seem to think that two HUGE winning issues for Democrats in 2020 are climate and healthcare.
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we've gotta get money out of politics.
https://twitter.com/dbroockman/status/1254924462194974721
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I thought this was interesting. Seems like it could do long term damage if correct. The demographics of the changing polls might be informative.
https://twitter.com/cjane87/status/1256211789076930565
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https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1256216221877493767
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He's just down everywhere.
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1256178342052626432
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Well President T can rest assured he’ll always have his guy Dax
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https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1256216221877493767
Actually heard this concern today from the two office trump dudes!
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Do you all think these numbers will actually hold true in the general election? I would assume that a reduction in support for trump does not equal an increase in Democrat support.
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I think those favorability numbers will come back up like usual. My feeling is less that these people are thinking he sucks ass and more that they wish he'd stop saying crazy crap on camera, like usual.
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one of the predictions i'm most confident in for the 2020 election is that third party vote share will be down compared to 2016.
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shor is one of the more interesting people i've encountered on twitter and this is an interesting tweet.
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1258756577877725190
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yes.
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DC literally has "Taxation without Representation" on their license plates. It not being a state today is the dumbest rough ridin' thing ever.
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good thread, better essay.
In a nutshell, she finds that financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference. Instead, she writes, their votes were related to positions “on issues related to American global dominance and the rise of a majority-minority America.”
While racial status threat and global status threat are different issues, they can clearly be intertwined in the minds of whites who feel they are the prototypical Americans and therefore have the most to lose if their country is no longer dominant. Mutz makes clear that whites’ protecting their dominant status isn’t an act of old-fashioned racism that assumed minorities were morally and intellectually inferior. Indeed, in this case, whites are seeing threats coming from nonwhite domestic groups and foreign nations sufficiently capable of displacing them.
https://twitter.com/madrid_mike/status/1259870726854569985
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That quoted text is similar to stuff Bannon says.
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https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1260699639520649217
i have a couple of beto related thoughts on this:
1. this is one of a couple reasons i became convinced, posthoc, that beto would not have been as good of a general election candidate as i thought i year ago, and part of why biden is a better general election candidate than i thought a year ago.
2. a lot of people make a big deal about beto's outspoken rhetoric on guns being politically damaging to him, and i'm fairly convinced they're mostly wrong. but almost no one talks about his emphasis on race, which i think is a good bit more damaging (and conceivably may have cost him the senate race in 2018).
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https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1260699639520649217
i have a couple of beto related thoughts on this:
1. this is one of a couple reasons i became convinced, posthoc, that beto would not have been as good of a general election candidate as i thought i year ago, and part of why biden is a better general election candidate than i thought a year ago.
2. a lot of people make a big deal about beto's outspoken rhetoric on guns being politically damaging to him, and i'm fairly convinced they're mostly wrong. but almost no one talks about his emphasis on race, which i think is a good bit more damaging (and conceivably may have cost him the senate race in 2018).
I think talking about guns in that light is undoubtedly a net loss from a voter perspective, unless you are a far left candidate (and even then it might be)
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it might be a net loss (though i'm not sure of that), but if so, i think it's a small one in a place like texas. not many voters highly motivated on that issue that are gettable votes for a dem candidate. more of an alienating issue in places like the northeast or the upper midwest where there are still rural and exurban white male dems.
i also think it's an interesting issue because it's one of a fairly small number of issues that unifies disparate elements of the dem coalition. biden is somewhat quietly leaning into gun control because they think it's something that can motivate young dem voters for him.
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https://twitter.com/madrid_mike/status/1259870726854569985
Very interesting and insightful by Rodriguez.
Mutz makes clear that whites’ protecting their dominant status isn’t an act of old-fashioned racism that assumed minorities were morally and intellectually inferior. Indeed, in this case, whites are seeing threats coming from nonwhite domestic groups and foreign nations sufficiently capable of displacing them.
One quibble. I'm not sure there's ultimately much difference between old timey and modern day white supremacy/nativism. All of it has always been about protecting the dominant status of whites.
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https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1261784312187420672
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good article.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/why-the-uncle-joe-cant-internet-criticism-is-mostly-malarkey
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https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1246817195352641538
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cogent insights, the both.
https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1269648258713911296
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1269680963908521984
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Vox.com: DC statehood is closer now than it has ever been.
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/22/21293168/dc-statehood-vote-filibuster-supreme-court-joe-biden
Happy for my brothers and sisters.
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lots of implications for '22 and beyond. probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1280899352685359115
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Being out of The White House and in the minority in both chambers seems like it would go a long way toward bringing pubs back together. Their common hate of elite, libs, the media, etc. is very strong.
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Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution
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Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution
It is not a love, it is a rallying cry to motivate the base.
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shor is one of the more interesting people i've encountered on twitter and this is an interesting tweet.
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1258756577877725190
this is a fantastic, wide-ranging interview with shor. great for challenging your basic understanding about how politics in the united states functions (no matter where you are on the political spectrum, i think you'll find something where shor articulates that your understanding is incorrect).
https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1284107724284932099
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I definitely think that is an interesting point. But I would like to see some comparison on union membership.
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lots of implications for '22 and beyond. probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1280899352685359115
If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government. Trumpism doesn't stand for any conservative ideals but is about being against what's perceived as liberal and has unnecessarily put the Republican party at odds with conservatives. Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.
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If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government... Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.
i don't think there is much of a market for that brand of conservativism. it doesn't fulfill the policy desires of the majority of current republicans (christian social conservatism, nationalism) and it has been pretty broadly discredited by the empirical evidence of the 2010's where expansionary monetary policy undeniably produced better outcomes than that ideology predicted and tight fiscal policy produced worse.
i think there is more of a market for a sort of powerful state federalist ideology along the lines of what you mention. i think that would be a fundamentally crippled ideology because you divorce the branches of government charged with producing outcomes (state/local) from the branch of government with the capacity to address national challenges (federal). but i think there might be a market for it.
here is a semi-interesting interview with a conservative envisioning channeling nationalist urges into a healthier conservative party than the xenophobic, closed door ethnonationalism of trump. i don't think it's likely to get much traction either, but it's one vision of how a non-abhorrent republican party might rise from the ashes of trumpism.
https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1284184250623733760
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i think there is value to the realization that taxes and inflation aren't a zero sum equation. but, yeah, there seems to me to be some non-linearity in the danger of being mistaken in the durability of the deflationary environment.
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Is HR1 going to be priority number one if Democrats take the executive and legislative branches?
Yes, in the sense that many viable vaccines will be emerging.
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I'm about 7/8ths through this. I feel like I know most of the stories already, but some of the details and analysis gave me new perspective on a few things these days. Like, I feel like I can better understand how people like Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, etc. can always go out and play the part of the absurdly unreasonable bad person. It's not that they're simply speaking for their pos constituents. Rather, they view that role as an effective, proven strategy that is now a cherished part of late GOP history. Like they see themselves as modern day Newt Gingriches pushing the unreasonable bad person role further and further, no matter how absurd.
(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51OX2AgVDTL._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)
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an interesting point. oth, i don't know if this is a problem anywhere besides ny and its largely a solvable problem. but it does highlight a choke point that might exist in some competitive states - and, if so, the party currently in control of election administration might not be incentivized to solve the problem.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1287418619044024327
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There are places where it will be complicated, for sure. For instance, here in Iowa you have to double apply for a mail in ballot. The SoS sends out a request to receive an application for a ballot. That request then goes to the county who sends out the application for the mail in ballot. If you reach those two deadlines then you get the ballot, which of course also has a deadline.
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conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.
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conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.
Yes
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couple good articles on polling and 2020 polling challenges.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-nbc-news-working-improve-its-state-polling-n1234716
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/05/key-things-to-know-about-election-polling-in-the-united-states/
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people really hate hillary clinton.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1295790954167898112
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Hate her entire guts
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good skills outta representative lamb here.
https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1295870479597580289
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LOL also wow @ having Shakir and Tanden on the same thing. I'll have to read it later
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https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1296808585989693440
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Although Republicans aren't always saying the same sorts of things they have over the past 30-40 years, I think there are PLENTY of general similarities between then and now. For example, they're concerned more with what they perceive benefits themselves personally than with anything else. They're very concerned with what they perceive to be people getting more than their fair share or what they're entitled. In one sense or another, they believe that whites are superior to non-whites and that men are superior to women. They're pro rich people. They're reluctant to change (they are the conservative party, after all). And so on.
With Election Day just a few months away, I was genuinely surprised, in the course of recent conversations with a great many Republicans, at their inability to articulate a purpose, a designation, a raison d'être for their party.
https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1297873116585234435
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That's worse than a minimum wage increase.
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Trump campaign's big law and order message is arguably not working. Are they going to stick with it or change things up? What else can they try? What are their options?
I don't think it will be a big message, but I'd guess we'll hear more about Burisma.
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this is at least somewhat, a worldwide trend. but the speed with which it reached breaking point and rolled on past in the united states under trump is still hard to appreciate.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1303843439247753218
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this is pretty amazing. the dog that caught the car.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1304892879886848001
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probably the most important question in u.s. politics is if these voters stick with dems for 2022.
https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1306395219542200321
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candidate effects probably make this data useless, but it could be an interesting natural experiment.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1308250822246047744
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this is an interesting dynamic. not likely to be of much immediate import, but farther out, it could.
https://twitter.com/perrybaconjr/status/1308815346602827776
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this is also relevant, although my anecdotal experience is that as latinos integrate into american society, they become increasingly racialized.
https://twitter.com/wesyang/status/1308814601107243009
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I still can't believe that guy's name is Perry Bacon Jr.
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unfortunate response.
https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1309333283436744704
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unfortunate response.
https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1309333283436744704
You surprised?
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Maybe the experience of seeing more billionaires in the world serves as an in your face reminder to middle class pubs that they don't want the government taking from the billions that they themselves will have one day in the future.
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You surprised?
the racial part, no. the deregulation part, yes.
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with regard to this and the discussion on another thread, i think people do not completely grasp the impact of this. it is not just that dems are less likely to hold a majority, it is that anytime that they do hold a majority it is with multiple senators beholden to republican leaning electorates.
i'll also add that dems trying to reform senate rules to ease passing legislation in the next two years should consider that in so doing, they'd be reducing the power of the minority power in the only government body they are unlikely to control in the near and intermediate future.
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1310792041060802561
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yes.
https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1311793020937875456
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i believe that makes sd goEMAW's most powerful voter in 2020.
https://twitter.com/craig_schwerin/status/1313270523644829697
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What was it
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a chart showing the electoral college leverage of a vote in different states/districts. nebraska 2 was third behind wisconsin and pennsylvania.
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https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1314214046560739328
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https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1314214046560739328
So are you changing your opinion of UBI or am I misunderstanding your view? You lost your crap at Markey proposing a handout for a fraction of that amount.
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https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1314214046560739328
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?
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All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
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So are you changing your opinion of UBI or am I misunderstanding your view? You lost your crap at Markey proposing a handout for a fraction of that amount.
i've been a proponent of some forms of what could be called a ubi for years.
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Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?
i think the data are a little messier than that, but basically.
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All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.
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https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1314214046560739328
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?
So it’s effective bc the shelter system wasted a lot of money? Makes sense.
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All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
fair point.
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Michigancat thinks he’s living in 3020 with his ideas. Wait til he hears about communism, the govt literally provides you with anything you could ever need. It is lit as crap and everybody has a good time.
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All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.
I should probs read the article before I comment, but I was wondering what the housing situation was there (I assume they had access to affordable housing if the results were really good).
I don't know how Canada handles affordable housing but I do know Vancouver ain't cheap
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All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.
Sure, and for that type of homeless, this cash injection worked well. I'm not surprised. Now, on to addressing the more difficult problem.
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All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.
Sure, and for that type of homeless, this cash injection worked well. I'm not surprised. Now, on to addressing the more difficult problem.
I don't think the findings of this program are insignificant or obvious to most people even with the population that participated, but OK
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This is a great (non) answer, politically. Justified since it's regarding a big, complex issue. And it doesn't commit him to anything right now.
Republicans have been willing to pay an electoral price for installing their judges. A case could be made that Democrats should go ahead and let them pay that price without potentially incurring one of their own by expanding the Supreme Court.
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1319244422790467586
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the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.
https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1319262929817079809
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https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1319265104538554368
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the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.
https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1319262929817079809
I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally. I obviously don't have data that shows this but colloquially it seems black men are becoming more conservative the more the patriarchy has collapsed.
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I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally.
yep, this is what has happened, at least vis a vis trump.
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the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.
https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1319262929817079809
I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally. I obviously don't have data that shows this but colloquially it seems black men are becoming more conservative the more the patriarchy has collapsed.
Lending further evidence to the point that women are the smarter members of the species as a whole.
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https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1322962269924478977
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Awful. Another instance of minority rule in our government.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1324044289660215297
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biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.
https://twitter.com/anaceballos_/status/1324523318356123649
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biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.
https://twitter.com/anaceballos_/status/1324523318356123649
I saw a long form television piece about Venezuelans in Florida and their voting habits, essentially he was in a no win situation there because the support for Guaido in Florida was only about 50/50. I think his bigger issue isn't that people though he was a socialist, that's been hanging around dems down there for a while and Obama and Hillary overcame it, he just didn't show up, he punted Florida.
Also if you haven't seen it yet, watch 537 Votes on HBO, it's a very well made doc, it's more about the history of politics and democrats in south Florida and less about the 2000 recount.
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this is a cool map. the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.
https://twitter.com/DiinSilversmith/status/1324752536121716736
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Very cool
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shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1324754227705663489
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this is a cool map. the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.
https://twitter.com/DiinSilversmith/status/1324752536121716736
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?
(https://i.imgur.com/k4c9rSk.png)
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shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1324754227705663489
I was going to say he should run some numbers on the value of keeping his own mouth shut but I bet his first cancellation was fairly lucrative overall. (also is this really cancel worthy?)
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also is this really cancel worthy?
nah, he just got a bunch of people to yell at him. for this and for criticizing aoc.
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Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?
i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger. rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.
my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.
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Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?
i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger. rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.
my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.
that makes sense. seems crazy how much they shifted to the right in TX
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oh, one other thing that might be relevant. rgv is like 90-95% mexican-american. it's pretty homogeneous. most az latinos live in phoenix or tucson, where while some may live in highly latino neighborhoods, the cities themselves are multicultural.
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hopefully dems can hold this. 2022 may be tough in nevada, though.
https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1324756523378118656
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florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.
the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.
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guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking).
i was being flippant, but not quite a joke. like, there's almost no cost to telling some group of immigrants that you liked whatever team they were on in their former country and it's meaningful to them. cuban-americans, seemingly, mostly just want to hear that castro sucked ass, and no one else in america gives a crap, so go ahead and say that.
mir indicated that guaido isn't viewed that favorably by venezuelan-americans, so maybe that's not the right message. but whatever it is - maduro sucks or maduro's great or chavez was great but maduro mumped it up or chavez, maduro and guaido are all crap, just say that, because it's very meaningful to this small group of electorally important people and no one else cares.
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florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.
the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.
I love you
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still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1325150805385601028
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when all the votes are in the magnitude of the electoral college bias is going to be safely larger than the magnitude of the error in thenational polling average.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1325146467938361345
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still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1325150805385601028
How is that defined, only 227 EC votes were from states with more than a 4-5% margin for Biden?
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difference btwn the national popular vote margin and the margin in the tipping point state.
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Would it cost less to relocate millions of progressives moderates than spend money on campaigns? :D
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for memphis (on 2020 poling bias):
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1325471130560368641
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1325477322078752770
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When Trump was first elected and people talked about lasting consequences, I wasn't exactly sure what those consequences might be. I share the concerns highlighted in this link. I worry that a rapidly increasing number of Republican leaders are more intersted in being in power than with having democratic elections.
https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1325944218120908801
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cohn with sorta the reverse of shor's non-response bias.
We know that politically engaged voters are more likely to respond to surveys. And so it may be that as the Trump Presidency has totally energized the Democratic base, it has also led those same kinds of voters to increase their propensity to respond to political surveys.
https://twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/1325991287439417344
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https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/
As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.
...
According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.
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https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/
As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.
The most telling thing isn't the discrepancy in the %'s, it's the fact that they are above 2-5% at all.
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David Shor - I mean, I’m not a robot.
Lol
Vox.com: Election results: Why the polls got it wrong.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor
:lol:
also, great article.
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that's exactly what a robot who wants you to think they are not a robot would say
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Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
Maybe there's two David Shors? The one I knew of was cancelled
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david shor? yeah, i like his early stuff.
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Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
but yeah interesting article though. I got to this and was like "WHAT?!?"
The average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.
something about that seems off
other thoughts
-crazy he can point to ONE MISTAKE costing the 2016 election
-The white college educated shift to dems is an interesting one, especially the idea that they're sort of shoving out minorities
-he's got a huge boner for non-college whites. I don't know how his numbers work out but should Dems maybe focus on minorities that are shifting away before being racist-friendly? dunno
-he was less like a robot but still kinda roboty
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that is actually a fantastic interview, though. the best i've seen. a person could read that and nothing else and understand 2020 american politics.
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kook
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a less data-driven perspective.
https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1326979780978208768
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It sounds like Shor is saying that dems need to do better with choosing policies to attract higher info voters and better propaganda to attract lower info voters, which rings true to me as an opportunity for improvement.
I'm not sure to what extent we should heed recent trends given the uniqueness of Trump. No one else has anything like his appeal.
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not sure how i feel about yglesias leaving vox, but this is a good blog post and worth reading. skipping over his reiteration of shor's concerns and moving right to the end - i think this really gets to a lot of the disconnect between what progressives think people should support, what polls show they support if the poll question is carefully worded and what people actually vote for.
yes, in theory, the american people probably would prefer some sort of state-mediated universal health care. they vote against efforts to install one because they are deeply doubtful of any level of american government's ability to produce an acceptable version. until governments can produce a track record of competence, this going to be a stumbling block for any ambitious policy.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1327279951607947267
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some of these voters are not going to be going back to dems post-trump. but also, these are small towns, small counties, small numbers of votes. i want to read the article talking to harris county mexican-americans that switched d to r in 2020, not these guys.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/south-texas-voters-donald-trump/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_content=1605275725&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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david shor is everywhere (and still worth reading).
https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1327264521245888512
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After reading a few of those Shor interviews there's a few things that would be interesting for him to address:
He keeps saying Dems need to go after non-college whites, but they choose the candidate who should have been the absolute best possible candidate with non-college whites (sys pointed this out with the Corvette video), and didn't make much ground.
He blames the Hillary loss on her immigration focus during the campaign, yet doesn't seem to mention that as a possible reason that Latinos swung right this year.
I also don't like his he uses absolutes, as if ONE SINGLE THING is the difference between winning and losing in this state or that one.
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good article with one congresswoman's views on the coming days.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/13/elissa-slotkin-braces-for-a-democratic-civil-war-436301
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Have ranked choice voting instead of first pass (winner take all) and interesting idea on House representation as well for proportional representation. Would take tho
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/23/21075960/polarization-parties-ranked-choice-voting-proportional-representation
Yeah that all sounds great. Would like to hear the counter argument
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heh.
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1330299310274211846
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he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
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he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
Does he clarify where he draws the line of "high profile"?
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not really.
just that it makes sense for like school board elections and doesn't for presidential elections, but if he's identified the point in between where the flip occurs, i haven't seen it.
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The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with this
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
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The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with this
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
it was shor and he was saying that since he was cancelled already he isn't afraid to say it and possibly offend potential progressive customers. Apparently he IS worried about offending potential customers though
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tired of reading david shor interviews? here's a wonderful opportunity to listen to a david shor interview instead. couple of points i found interesting included that the media has more of an impact on a race than the candidates themselves (17ish minute mark) and pointing out the asymmetry that republican politicos tend to be more moderate than their base voters while dem politicos tend to be more extreme than their base voters (26ish minute mark).
https://twitter.com/Nowooski/status/1333663170255196160
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lol. HAAAAARRRDDDD PASS
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found another one. covers a lot of the same ground. if i was going to only listen to one, it'd probably be this one. more thoughtful, less pithy.
https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1331621743237214208
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My familiarity to this guy is limited to his tweets that you post. Is there any methodology or independent research to these opinions he gives? A lot of what I see here seems like opinion backed by confirmation bias. For instance there is a lot of polling and research that disputes this.
pointing out the asymmetry that republican politicos tend to be more moderate than their base voters while dem politicos tend to be more extreme than their base voters
Seems like a dude enjoying the smell of his own farts.
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fwiw from what I understand almost all of his opinions/conclusions are underpinned by research, polling and analysis (could probably question how he synthesizes different things to come to an opinion). For the most part I don't see citations tho in articles, he def shares some on twitter.
I'm sure there is some research and polling, I just wonder how much of it is independent.
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fwiw from what I understand almost all of his opinions/conclusions are underpinned by research, polling and analysis (could probably question how he synthesizes different things to come to an opinion). For the most part I don't see citations tho in articles, he def shares some on twitter.
I was listening to the last podcast sys shared and he brought up the "average voter spends 6 hours a day watching TV" and cited Nielsen analysis. I called that out as bullshit when I heard it a while back so I looked for Nielsen data.
(https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/09/multicultural-media-time-spent-q12020.png?w=1200)
https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2020/ballot-box-breakdown-looking-at-the-u-s-voter-and-media/
I suppose it's possible that the average voter spends over two and a half hours more watching TV than the average adult but that seems pretty unlikely and I don't want to spend all day looking for his data.
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I listened to the rest, I hated the host so goddam much.
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i think he says the median voter, not the average voter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem
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i think he says the median voter, not the average voter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem
well he clearly said "average voter" a little after the 19th minute.
I still think a "median voter" watching that much TV is unlikely based on the Nielsen data I saw.
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he must have misspoke. i've heard/read him say it enough times i can pretty much repeat it from memory - the median voter is a 50 year-old, white, non-college male that watches 5 hours of tv/day.
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he must have misspoke. i've heard/read him say it enough times i can pretty much repeat it from memory - the median voter is a 50 year-old, white, non-college male that watches 5 hours of tv/day.
He upped it to six and a half hours too!
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Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
but yeah interesting article though. I got to this and was like "WHAT?!?"
The average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.
something about that seems off
other thoughts
-crazy he can point to ONE MISTAKE costing the 2016 election
-The white college educated shift to dems is an interesting one, especially the idea that they're sort of shoving out minorities
-he's got a huge boner for non-college whites. I don't know how his numbers work out but should Dems maybe focus on minorities that are shifting away before being racist-friendly? dunno
-he was less like a robot but still kinda roboty
He said average voter here too
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Sounds like this Shor fella is a quack
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i guess i couldn't quite recite it from memory.
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i guess i couldn't quite recite it from memory.
It's OK, I don't think Shor can either
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I listened to the rest
(https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/31/23/klay-thompson-052715-vine-ftr_1b0zzq3uveg8z1mti5eezhb0vq.jpg?t=-1737297547&quality=100)
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Should probs Shor up this thread with a Hughes video interview :driving: (I think this is dated)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_a113OGaTg
Oh God
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Should probs Shor up this thread with a Hughes video interview :driving: (I think this is dated)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_a113OGaTg
Get all the way the eff out of here
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oh yeah, baby. got my listening schedule mapped out for tonight.
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Guess this is a good as place as any for this. If you enjoy reading rando snapshots of how people view the world/US politics.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/13/letter-to-washington-20-americans-explain-2020-election-433756
that was an interesting read.
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imo, the best shor interview yet. hayes is a good interviewer.
https://twitter.com/nbeaudrot/status/1339319287270440960
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imo, the best shor interview yet. hayes is a good interviewer.
https://twitter.com/nbeaudrot/status/1339319287270440960
better than Coleman Hughes? :Wha:
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https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1344098744321638401
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I love The Intercept, and I'm happy to see them getting more traction. It's very easy for the media to point out conservative grift, there seems to be very little appetite for the corporate media to point out liberal hypocrisy.
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not great.
https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1350912507053973505
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not great.
https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1350912507053973505
Yes, this is scary
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not great.
https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1350912507053973505
Yes, this is scary
Late to the party here but yes that is a big rough ridin' red flag.
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not great.
https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1350912507053973505
Yes, this is scary
This is a long read but it provides a much deeper look at the polling from the NBC article that sys posted.
https://twitter.com/maggiekb1/status/1353679320535998464
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good article.
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If you want to stop partisan hatred then ProgFascists would be wise to stop putting guys like Norm Eisen to work everytime you lose an election.
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Those exclamation points are pure kRusty :D
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https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1357063375679860736
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mechanically, it's two things: 1) the share of non-white voters that are black is decreasing, so the share of non-white voters that votes republican goes up (but shor says from 2012 to 2020, this effect is very small), and 2) in 2020 the electorate repolarized a little more on education and a little less on race/ethnicity.
leaving aside the why, that's basically the how. no college non-white voters voted for republicans a bit more and college white voters voted for them a bit less.
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https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1362946540013314053
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Counterpoint: political affiliations are religions
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Counterpoint: political affiliations are religions
oh, that's reassuring.
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Counterpoint: political affiliations are religions
oh, that's reassuring.
Lol
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finally transitioned from print and audio to video. i found smith's interview style a little offputting, but otherwise a solid addition to the shor compendium.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/video-interview-david-shor-political
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entire thread is interesting.
https://twitter.com/KSoltisAnderson/status/1364618088826740737/photo/1
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https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1366584336426926083
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https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1367157156219387904
A lot of talk about how white liberals are to the left of Hispanic and Black Democrats on a number of issues.
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Maternity leave was one good thing I thought trump might be able to get through but they pretty much instantly dropped that after the 16 campaign.
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I think we probably already do too much to subsidize having kids.
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I think we probably already do too much to subsidize having kids.
one good thing about the stimulus bill child subsidy is that it's just an unpredictable one time thing so it shouldn't provide much of an incentive to create more children.
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this is interesting.
https://twitter.com/dhopkins1776/status/1352252875393609729
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my man can twirl.
https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1368670408753446916
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He was on meet the press today, talking himself in circles. I honestly respect Mitch McConnell more than I do Manchin. He and to a lesser extent Susan Collins are the poster people for term limits, which I actually don't believe in. They are professional politicians whose only goal is seemingly to do nothing but to get re-elected. It's too bad the voters tolerate this behavior.
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Also belongs in MAGA thread. “No one deserves a hand out but me” is peak MAGA.
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Also belongs in MAGA thread. “No one deserves a hand out but me” is peak MAGA.
Big fans of socialism
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Maybe better in the post Trump GOP topic but interesting in regards to alignment and policy that the rest of the thread speaks towards
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1369701889978343424
i'm almost certain that's correct. it's a truism that is mostly true that voters don't punish lawmakers for voting against a bill that passes.
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Maybe better in the post Trump GOP topic but interesting in regards to alignment and policy that the rest of the thread speaks towards
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1369701889978343424
https://twitter.com/Thom_Hartmann/status/1369784679805558785?s=19
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that's probably part of why voters don't tend to punish lawmakers for votes.
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The Senate is separately working out an agreement to bring back earmarks. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would defer on the issue to Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Shelby has said he's supportive. But Senate Republicans have been generally more receptive to earmarks than their House counterparts.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/17/house-gop-ends-earmark-ban-476696
Honestly I think this is the most positive step towards the GOP saying they want to wheel and deal and be bipartisan in drafting legislation.
That's an acceptable cost to you?
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bringing back earmarks would be a positive step, but probably insufficient to much change the paradigm (partly because the earmarks to be allowed are pretty strictly limited).
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Earmarks aren't good governance, but they are certainly better than no governance. It's been all but impossible to fund major public works projects without them.
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Our democracy is a special kind of shitty. All of that is awful. Only in Washington could being forced to actually do your job could be wielded as a weapon.
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For some reason I'm enjoying the stupid twitter back and forth between Neolibs/libs with the DSA gov candidate in VA over housing affordability. California cats how long will this last before I hate it?
I'm numb to it but what side is each taking in VA?
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For some reason I'm enjoying the stupid twitter back and forth between Neolibs/libs with the DSA gov candidate in VA over housing affordability. California cats how long will this last before I hate it?
hmm, maybe 30 years?
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Zoning laws on their own, aren't an impediment to providing affordable housing, and I have no issue with zoning. How municipalities use zoning is very much problematic. Saying that you can't have affordable housing with zoning laws is like saying you can't have congressional districts without gerrymandering.
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I mean that's all kind of semantics to a degree imo.
I'm not in tune to this stuff all that much, but I don't get the idea that people want no, as in zero, regulation from zoning. What we have now is demonstratively bad if it makes it exceedingly difficult to build housing/apartments/whatever and denser housing in particular (I think with the idea that denser tends to give more relatively affordable options than mcmansions, plus potentially other social and environmental benefits).
yeah generally "no zoning" is really "no single family zoning". Single family zoning absolutely makes it more difficult to build affordable housing
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On continued observation got me thinking more about rent seeking/speculation and what personal property taxes or a LVT are. DSA guy believes very much that wealthy people are driving up prices by holding onto what is now valuable property and not allowing it to be put to use. Which is a thing that makes sense as being possible and I'm sure is occurring, but I have no idea of the magnitude or if this is another flavor of eating the rich as the simple solution/capitalism sux.
There is a lot of rich (and also foreign rich) money tied up in high rise condos that get little use in Chicago and NYC. I assume this is true in other large cities as well.
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On continued observation got me thinking more about rent seeking/speculation and what personal property taxes or a LVT are. DSA guy believes very much that wealthy people are driving up prices by holding onto what is now valuable property and not allowing it to be put to use. Which is a thing that makes sense as being possible and I'm sure is occurring, but I have no idea of the magnitude or if this is another flavor of eating the rich as the simple solution/capitalism sux.
There is a lot of rich (and also foreign rich) money tied up in high rise condos that get little use in Chicago and NYC. I assume this is true in other large cities as well.
you also see quite a few instances of ludicrous rent increase -> eviction -> property sits vacant for months for commercial storefronts in high-rent areas.
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The only thing standing between michigancat and a 5000 sq ft place in cow hollow is zoning laws
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i found this interesting. i'm not wholly convinced on the sort of catholic right's providence from, or convergence with, puritanism, but the sort of instinctual, individualistic libertarianishness of trump's base strikes me as both accurate and consequential.
https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1386386384123015174
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https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Neoreactionary_movement
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This has been brewing for a long time. The influence of Moldbug et al is quite significant these days.
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1392543897172291586
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No thanks.
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I'm kinda jealous of the Alaska final four elections. It's interesting that I've heard weaker political parties be the cause and solution to extreme partisanship.
https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1392605693342007306
Yes, I think that's right, however a meeting in the middle isn't ideal for people who are looking for transformative changes. For all of the partisanship of the last two decades or so, policy wise there has been very little difference on how the parties have governed and approached policy.
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White people in one of the most segregated states in America are scared of black people? NOWAY
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Despite it always being all over twitter, I do my best to ignore New York politics. However, the issue of whether or not Eric Adams lives in New Jersey has caught my attention for it silliness.
https://twitter.com/courtneycgross/status/1402641680688427008
vvv thread vvv
https://twitter.com/rafaelshimunov/status/1402804698973888512
https://twitter.com/courtneycgross/status/1402819852914548736
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Despite it always being all over twitter, I do my best to ignore New York politics. However, the issue of whether or not Eric Adams lives in New Jersey has caught my attention for it silliness.
https://twitter.com/courtneycgross/status/1402641680688427008
vvv thread vvv
https://twitter.com/rafaelshimunov/status/1402804698973888512
https://twitter.com/courtneycgross/status/1402819852914548736
That's wild. A while back two candidates thought the median home sale price on Brooklyn was under $100k, which was also pretty great.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/5/11/andrew-yang-nails-brooklyn-house-price-query-in-nyc-mayoral-race
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he lives in his office. i don't really get why this is being treated like a big mystery.
"it doesn't really look like this dude lives in this apt he owns that is his legal residence."
"yeah, he openly lives in his office. everyone knows about it."
"oh, yeah. :dunno:
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Is this considered an HR 1 compromise? If not, why bother.
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I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
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https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1412781418191675394
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America being the greatest country in the world is an interesting cultural question.
some good commentary on that by yglesias and @mattgrossmann.
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I dunno what's another one like violence/sex in TV, music or video games?
i feel like we mostly just got tired of that as a political issue rather than people changing their minds on it, but i guess it's sort of the same thing.
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I'm not sure I completely agree with this account of the way things have changed. Or with the idea that there were two things and now there are four things. But there are some great reflections about the differing values of people today and how it is difficult for them to see eye to eye.
https://twitter.com/alexanderrusso/status/1413091857580580865
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that was very interesting.
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I'm not sure I completely agree with this account of the way things have changed. Or with the idea that there were two things and now there are four things. But there are some great reflections about the differing values of people today and how it is difficult for them to see eye to eye.
https://twitter.com/alexanderrusso/status/1413091857580580865
haven't read the article but listed to an interesting podcast talking about it last night.
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It's a pretty good representation of modern politically motivated white people.
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It's a pretty good representation of modern politically motivated white people.
Yeah, it seems like there would only be a handful of non-whites in any of those categories. Do other non-white views of America just not count here or what?
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Well politically motivated white people pretty much control politics in this country. I'm don't think the point was other views don't count, but they certainly do not have the amount of influence.
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What an enjoyable article.
Conservatives: Hollowed out evil!
Libs: Oh gosh, just a few ideological missteps along the way, but always on a correctable course
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Dax, it might be time for some self reflection if you think an accurate representation of conservatives (YOUR SIDE in daxspeak) comes across as hollowed out evil.
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I'm not sure I completely agree with this account of the way things have changed. Or with the idea that there were two things and now there are four things. But there are some great reflections about the differing values of people today and how it is difficult for them to see eye to eye.
https://twitter.com/alexanderrusso/status/1413091857580580865
Man, every Atlantic article is about 3 times as long as it should be.
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Dax, it might be time for some self reflection if you think an accurate representation of conservatives (YOUR SIDE in daxspeak) comes across as hollowed out evil.
There's an entire section of the article which in so many words paints the conservative movement from the 1980's to the 1990's as either vapid empty suits or hellbent to destroy the government mechanisms as we know them. It's complete tripe derived from partisan Lib dogma.
It then paints the Clinton and Obama years with a sort of white knuckle angst full of good intentions, but with some gut wrenching self congratulating over the top platitudinal missteps sprinkled with some gringe worthy political stump disenfranchisement.
The author correctly, but only superficially marks the turn of ProgLibs into ProgFacists and only slightly touches on the full assimilation of the Liberal movement into everything that they used to hate.
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It's a pretty good representation of modern politically motivated white people.
Yeah, it seems like there would only be a handful of non-whites in any of those categories. Do other non-white views of America just not count here or what?
i think most non-white, non-black americans would be decently accommodated by those categories. black americans are pretty unique and a fifth category is probably needed to accommodate a lot of black americans.
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This schedule sounds like Hell. Not worth the prestige or whatever you get out of that job.
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1415678908410695685
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interesting post. so many problems with construction/land use in this country, and not much political will to change anything.
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I thought it was interesting but the passage about the Yellow Vest protests in France being “mostly white supremacist” is an odd charge without any supporting evidence. Stanning for Macron that hard is pretty funny.
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i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
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I always wonder with the retire early thing (I'd assume this means 50's), is it like a sabbatical for like 5 years or are they just done and onto hobbies, leisure, vacations, visits ect. I'm sure some do other things in their community that are beneficial too or maybe not hoa lol
My dad retired early to play golf and eff around, it lasted for two months before he wanted a job.
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i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
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This sounds like the pre-MAGAfied GOP nightmare. Remember how they hated the lazy European work ethic of not working 40 hours per week and taking month long summer vacations?
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i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
You may not be able to buy happiness for yourself, but you sure as eff can for your kids.
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I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
you probably do work too much and should relax and spend more time with your family instead of making money for your kids to enjoy when you're dead, but not because of that tweet. that guy's an idiot.
https://twitter.com/laurenkmeow/status/1433686437824585736
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i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
This is something I’ve been thinking about every few weeks for the last 1-2 years
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/republicans-democrats-parties.html
https://twitter.com/ksusys/status/1435714956406575106
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No surprise here
(https://i.ibb.co/BG4KTPd/Screenshot-20210908-214602.png)
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Be careful making politics your hobby.
https://twitter.com/mamentalily/status/1437546213004427273
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How do you get pelted with two eggs, but at the same time they both miss?
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this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
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this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
No more so than Michael Tracey knows where the gym is
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this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.
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I wouldn't be interested in going to watch him speak. I would be open to going to an auditorium to watch him sit in a chair on stage and silently tweet from his phone.
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this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.
No he's not.
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this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.
No he's not.
Hey!!!
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I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
New congressional map for dallas
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210928/517119e6d892c0564ad63712552f132f.jpg)
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Seems like something like this would never happen, but they absolutely do hold a TON of political power.
The Civil War ended 156 years ago, but Mississippi did not remove the Confederate flag from its state flag until 2020, when it was threatened with losing access to college football championship games.
https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/1443301024186486784
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I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
New congressional map for dallas
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210928/517119e6d892c0564ad63712552f132f.jpg)
I think proportional representation would make a bigger impact on that than RCV
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Also lol Dallas
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I like the concept of RCV, never done it so I can't speak to the actual process or execution. It seems to me that RCV is more effective in local races, and maybe some state races. I don't know how it would help at all in gerrymandered house races, the point of gerrymandering is to get as many like minded, homogeneous voters in one race. RCV doesn't change that. Also with house and senate races the two parties will still coalesce around their chosen candidate.
New congressional map for dallas
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210928/517119e6d892c0564ad63712552f132f.jpg)
Yikes
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Not sure if I can get sys to respond to this, but Bruenig has a pretty good take down of Shor on the Child Tax Credit. I think most people have kind of come to realize that 538 and specifically Nate Silver has become a bit of a parody of himself, and I think Shor is mostly interesting to read, but this is pretty shoddy stuff and makes me hope he isn't headed to Nate Silver land.
https://mattbruenig.com/2021/10/10/popularism-and-the-child-tax-credit/ (https://mattbruenig.com/2021/10/10/popularism-and-the-child-tax-credit/)
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i don't want to be the board's designated shor apologist, and especially not on an issue where shor's opinion and mine are diametrically opposed (he thinks the ctc is good, i think it is bad). but briefly, i agree with bruenig in that i think shor offers a pretty compelling argument for things democrats did in 2016 and 2020 that did not work and for why they did those things, even though at least some people in the dem political world knew they weren't working, but a less compelling case that these issues will necessarily persist and at best an unconvincing and amorphous prescription for how to remedy or reverse trends not in their favor.
that said, the rest of bruenig's piece is pretty much complete bullshit. he misrepresents shor's argument for means testing, he misunderstands the data shor presented and last bit about permanency vs means testing is just lol stupid (or more likely dishonest). shor's data is for a permanent and means tested ctc.
here are a couple of tweets where shor addresses the first two of these points, but if you're interested i'd encourage you to go look through shor's tweets from that time period. he hasn't tweeted since, so it's easy to do and if you read through them you get a pretty decent idea of how he'd respond to bruenig's critique.
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1445035075859537923
https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1447264913215442953
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I read the Shor piece. I can't read the twitter stuff because it keeps re-directing me to login and I'm not going to, but I don't think I'm really missing much. Bruenig isn't claiming that it is his policy preference or even Shor's to not do the CTC, even though that is what the "polling says" and his point about Shor's case was that Shor acknowledges that he is talking strategy at the beginning and I agree with his strategic thinking for the most part at the top, but then he goes on to do that absurd bit about the polling data and that is where I part ways.
I think the more absurd part is Shor understands issue/policy polling to be almost universally b.s., subject to bias in the writing of polls etc. but then goes on to do it anyway while claiming he doesn't. The reason isn't simply the polling, is largely because the vast majority of the electorate simply does not think about policy questions in any logical/reasonable way that is recognizable or discernable to some egg head like shor.
The fact that he knows all that and still attempts to make a living on claiming that he has the key to overcome it is a pretty good living if you can keep it up, but my premise (and I'm pretty sure Bruenig's reading) is that the whole exercise of carefully sifting through the data on the minutiae on the CTC benefit level means testing is absurd on its face and the fact that he then makes some charts and acts like there is some clear policy preference by the electorate to be discerned is just fool's gold. That Shor then adds in the part about of the issues polled: "this version polls at 50% and another polls at 53% and we should re-design based on this" would be better if he just started out by acknowledging there just isn't much difference and so instead there is a strategic advantage or policy preference. I think there is a case to be made there, but the "data" just obscures this.
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I think the fact that the CTC is not just done through Social Security is the biggest problem as it has kept some of the poorest kids from receiving it for no real reason is way worse than the rest of the crap.
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I think the more absurd part is Shor understands issue/policy polling to be almost universally b.s., subject to bias in the writing of polls etc. but then goes on to do it anyway while claiming he doesn't. The reason isn't simply the polling, is largely because the vast majority of the electorate simply does not think about policy questions in any logical/reasonable way that is recognizable or discernable to some egg head like shor.
i'm pretty sure shor would disagree with both points.
i assume that he thinks that his own polling methodology is better than most and probably doesn't think it is universal bs. at the very least he'd think that comparisons between issues polled using the same methodology are internally valid.
i don't have to assume, because i've seen him express it a number of times, that he doesn't think that the majority of the electorate does not have policy preferences.
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I wouldn’t go so far as to say the public “doesn’t have policy preferences” but I think it is pretty difficult to measure it, Shor may do it better than others but as presented it looks shoddy as far as drawing the conclusions from it he does, and I think the underlying tendency of the polity is to pick a side and reverse engineer the policy positions. Didn’t we just see this pretty clearly with Trump? Not to over learn the lesson, but I think it is a high bar to claim that the American public has strong beliefs on the intricacies of the CTC and he doesn’t come close to clearing it.
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i don't think means testing the ctc, as polled and as generally processed by voters, is all that intricate. it's just like, do you think the govt should give most people money to help pay for their children or only give money to poor people with children?
the main point shor tries to make is not ctc specific, but that in general, many libs process opposition to social spending programs "as americans don't like to give poor people money" and this way of thinking about why people object to social spending programs is falsified (on average or perhaps on the margin - obviously individuals may have all sorts of divergent reasons) by the finding that means testing almost always increases support for a social spending program.
personally, i think this is very easy to understand and i find it weird that a lot of econ/policy types i follow on twitter struggle to understand it. trying to state it concisely, i'd put it as something like - for social spending programs that voters categorize as chiefly charitable rather than chiefly a form of communal insurance/annuity, voters prefer to see that recipients are both in need of, and deserving of, assistance rather than see that the benefit is available to a greater number of people.
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@sys
I think this article does a pretty good job in summing up why I think it is important for the Democrats to pass the CTC, not means test it to death and also if possible make it permanent as well as expanding Medicare coverage. These are direct, relatively uncomplicated benefits that come directly from the government (the CTC is very unnecessarily complicated and a worse policy because it is routed through the IRS but still).
I know you just don't like the CTC, but I wonder if you disagree with the article.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/)
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@sys
I think this article does a pretty good job in summing up why I think it is important for the Democrats to pass the CTC, not means test it to death and also if possible make it permanent as well as expanding Medicare coverage. These are direct, relatively uncomplicated benefits that come directly from the government (the CTC is very unnecessarily complicated and a worse policy because it is routed through the IRS but still).
I know you just don't like the CTC, but I wonder if you disagree with the article.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/)
my understanding is that the typical timeline for newly introduced benefits is that they decline in popularity following introduction for like 4-5 years, then gain popularity.
i don't agree on the ctc. i think ctc proponents are deliberately (or perhaps, genuinely, but incomprehensibly) blind to the fact that it is not a universal policy. it explicitly is only available to parents of minor children, and i think it is unlikely that individuals to whom this benefit is not offered will come to love that it is offered to others and not to them - especially if it is available to people with much higher incomes than most of the people to whom it is not available.
that said, it is not now a high salience issue (look no further than the lack of discussion on this board) and i don't expect it will suddenly become a high salience issue in 2022. if adopted permanently, it will at some point by perceived as status quo and most people will not consider it either way in electoral decisions unless it is forced up as an issue.
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@sys
I think this article does a pretty good job in summing up why I think it is important for the Democrats to pass the CTC, not means test it to death and also if possible make it permanent as well as expanding Medicare coverage. These are direct, relatively uncomplicated benefits that come directly from the government (the CTC is very unnecessarily complicated and a worse policy because it is routed through the IRS but still).
I know you just don't like the CTC, but I wonder if you disagree with the article.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/)
my understanding is that the typical timeline for newly introduced benefits is that they decline in popularity following introduction for like 4-5 years, then gain popularity.
i don't agree on the ctc. i think ctc proponents are deliberately (or perhaps, genuinely, but incomprehensibly) blind to the fact that it is not a universal policy. it explicitly is only available to parents of minor children, and i think it is unlikely that individuals to whom this benefit is not offered will come to love that it is offered to others and not to them - especially if it is available to people with much higher incomes than most of the people to whom it is not available.
that said, it is not now a high salience issue (look no further than the lack of discussion on this board) and i don't expect it will suddenly become a high salience issue in 2022. if adopted permanently, it will at some point by perceived as status quo and most people will not consider it either way in electoral decisions unless it is forced up as an issue.
Well by that standard Medicare and Social Security are not universal either, that is a dumb side step. I don't know the exact number, but a huge percentage of Americans have children at some point like 75% and 40% currently have children under 18. Are there people that will become enraged by this? Yes of course, but not that many and you are part of that minority.
As far as the actual point of the policy (poverty reduction) goes, Bruenig has talked about this a lot but there just isn't much poverty in households without non-workers and non-workers overwhelmingly fall in to one of the following categories: 1) Children 2) Disabled 3) Elderly 4) Caregivers 5) Students
We have Social Security benefits for the Elderly and Disabled categories, Caregivers had some benefits that were subsequently pulled from the infrastructure bill, Students are kind of a transitory category and we have federal subsidized student loans to target them and Children we have the CTC, which is not my ideal policy but addresses this group.
As for salience--A lack of discussion on this board of upper middle class white guys is not exactly a representative sample. I personally like having a good chunk of my hefty day care payments taken care of by Uncle Joe and absolutely think that while it could be branded and sold a little better, for millions of parents getting a check cut each month is a pretty big deal and can be pointed to and it would be a disaster to have it suddenly turned off on the democrat's watch.
As far as means testing it--the entire point of making it more universal is to make it more popular because the type of anti-poverty programs that are consistently cut, marginalized, demonized, and get way more hate are targeted, means tested, anti-poverty programs like SNAP, TANF, Section 8, Free and reduced lunches etc. I tend to think the reason why so many moderates/Republicans want to means test it is so they can kill it/demonize it as "welfare" for lazy/poor people like they do with our extremely weak welfare state already.
It is fine if you don't like it but it is a big improvement on the status quo and it is foolish to think that people won't miss it.
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf (https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf)
https://news.gallup.com/poll/164618/desire-children-norm.aspx (https://news.gallup.com/poll/164618/desire-children-norm.aspx)
https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2018/09/18/the-best-way-to-eradicate-poverty-welfare-not-jobs/ (https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2018/09/18/the-best-way-to-eradicate-poverty-welfare-not-jobs/)
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@sys
I think this article does a pretty good job in summing up why I think it is important for the Democrats to pass the CTC, not means test it to death and also if possible make it permanent as well as expanding Medicare coverage. These are direct, relatively uncomplicated benefits that come directly from the government (the CTC is very unnecessarily complicated and a worse policy because it is routed through the IRS but still).
I know you just don't like the CTC, but I wonder if you disagree with the article.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted/)
my understanding is that the typical timeline for newly introduced benefits is that they decline in popularity following introduction for like 4-5 years, then gain popularity.
i don't agree on the ctc. i think ctc proponents are deliberately (or perhaps, genuinely, but incomprehensibly) blind to the fact that it is not a universal policy. it explicitly is only available to parents of minor children, and i think it is unlikely that individuals to whom this benefit is not offered will come to love that it is offered to others and not to them - especially if it is available to people with much higher incomes than most of the people to whom it is not available.
that said, it is not now a high salience issue (look no further than the lack of discussion on this board) and i don't expect it will suddenly become a high salience issue in 2022. if adopted permanently, it will at some point by perceived as status quo and most people will not consider it either way in electoral decisions unless it is forced up as an issue.
People only support benefit programs that directly benefit themselves? I don't think any benefit program would exist if this were the cass?
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Well by that standard Medicare and Social Security are not universal either, that is a dumb side step. I don't know the exact number, but a huge percentage of Americans have children at some point like 75% and 40% currently have children under 18. Are there people that will become enraged by this? Yes of course, but not that many and you are part of that minority.
everyone either is old or expects to eventually be old. of people who do not currently have minor children, the large marjority of them do not expect to have minor children in the future. btw, i looked quickly and saw 40% as the number of us households with minor children. the % of voters would be lower, but i don't have good estimate for how much lower.
As far as the actual point of the policy (poverty reduction).
pretty laughable to say that the point of the ctc is poverty reduction. the expanded payments go out to households making up to 182k, which is about 300% of the median household income. and you're arguing against means testing!
As far as means testing it--the entire point of making it more universal is to make it more popular because the type of anti-poverty programs that are consistently cut, marginalized, demonized, and get way more hate are targeted, means tested, anti-poverty programs like SNAP, TANF, Section 8, Free and reduced lunches etc. I tend to think the reason why so many moderates/Republicans want to means test it is so they can kill it/demonize it as "welfare" for lazy/poor people like they do with our extremely weak welfare state already.
polling shows the exact opposite, and the empirical evidence that less broad benefits are more liable to be cut is sparse to nonexistent.
sorry if that conflicts with how you wish the world worked.
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I'd be more inclined to support eliminating the child tax credit than expanding it.
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I'd be more inclined to support eliminating the child tax credit than expanding it.
i'm pretty ok with the current version being discussed. i think the one year extension of the expanded credit will be seen as a coronavirus measure and not a permanent benefit. making the basic ctc refundable actually does only benefit persons that need it and at a fraction of the cost of also making the larger benefit available to wealthy households. paired with extending the eitc for childless adults helps make it more fair as well.
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The whole problem of the tax credits is it doesn’t even reach the most needy.
As for the “universal” thing the I am not very sensitive to the SALT caucus arguments about property taxes killing middle class families or the “death tax” ruining family farms, but being over $100K with 3 kids is pretty different than a TINK household and thats the whole point of the CTC. Kids can’t work and thus this benefit is to guarantee at least a basic standard of living.
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The whole problem of the tax credits is it doesn’t even reach the most needy.
As for the “universal” thing the I am not very sensitive to the SALT caucus arguments about property taxes killing middle class families or the “death tax” ruining family farms, but being over $100K with 3 kids is pretty different than a TINK household and thats the whole point of the CTC. Kids can’t work and thus this benefit is to guarantee at least a basic standard of living.
We talkin' bout throuples, here?
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Left, Right, and Center has both Bruenigs on this week if you can stomach it sys.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4lVBuR6cFZRywI9q23Harz?si=WuwIVtMiQCmg-oyNbc7hwQ
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under which label did they place each bruenig?
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They tagged team’d as the left
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211115/7cedfda5b524f4a525b78391bf5624ee.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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i don't get it.
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I just thought the image was funny and Perry Bacon is an amazing name. He used to be in the 538 podcast when I listened to it.
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it's a good name.
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Kind of an interesting juxtaposition in prospects of reelection.
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1484227488989466632
https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1484611366954569728
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Sinema should definitely get primaried and then she can go write a book and do the speaking circuit and be a well paid pharma shill or talking head on pharma boards. Win-win.
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Man, remember the good ol days in the summer of 2021 when I was called stupid for suggesting she was going to get primaried.
The censure is rough ridin' absurd and democrats everywhere should be embarrassed. Those idiots are just as crazy as the pubs who censured other pubs for various perceived anti Trump things last year.
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Man, remember the good ol days in the summer of 2021 when I was called stupid for suggesting she was going to get primaried.
The censure is rough ridin' absurd and democrats everywhere should be embarrassed. Those idiots are just as crazy as the pubs who censured other pubs for various perceived anti Trump things last year.
Agreed that the censure if stupid. Censured for ... not voting to eliminate the filibuster? Ok ...
I blame Trumpism in an indirect way. Trump polluted the political well, and they all drink the same water.
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https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1494117244636385282
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School board elections are now basically just partisan and it mostly sucks ass.
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this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.
I know him now as the dumbest ass person "reporting" from ukraine.
He's just trying to tweet his way through this one, pretty lol
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1505928987230490624?t=kHm6Mj4Wu3-hYpoWYI6L8Q&s=19
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https://twitter.com/Wilson__Valdez/status/1506073049216528388?t=JUP6QMpOtPliASebimvzXw&s=19
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I think he's buds with Greenwald.
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I think he's buds with Greenwald.
Canco, lol
https://twitter.com/zackbeauchamp/status/1506262273131692032?t=erbQDJFufqwl4PHCbr5tkA&s=19
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should have named it the horseshoe.
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Holy crap, lmao
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220323/9b5600e4063050ac8621a3c926c85e03.jpg)
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School board elections are now basically just partisan and it mostly sucks ass.
That's intentional. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2021/09/03/wisconsin-school-boards-crossfire-parents-aided-gop-groups/5702386001/
I live in WI. the stuff the Bradley Foundation(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Foundation) pilots here gets piped straight into the GOP and exported around the country:
https://projects.jsonline.com/news/2017/5/5/hacked-records-show-bradley-foundation-taking-wisconsin-model-national.html
They are basically the actual version of the boogieman that most liberals think the Koch Brothers are and have been focusing on schools for a long time.
List of what they've focused on recently-ish:
political focus on school board elections, privatizing schooling aka school choice/vouchers(https://archive.jsonline.com/newswatch/203790281.html), spreading fear about election fraud to push voter disenfranchisement(https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/08/09/the-big-money-behind-the-big-lie), stripping the office of Governor of power on your way out after you lose an election(https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/us/wisconsin-power-republicans.html), anti-vax/anti-mask/anti-social distancing efforts(https://upnorthnewswi.com/2020/07/17/bradley-foundation-bankrolled-groups-tied-to-reopen-movement-to-tune-of-2-million/).
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amaze
https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1507091569236660228
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For a second I thought Ronald was even saluting.
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What's the story on the Gitmo McD's flag? Lol.
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They have to lower it though right?
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For flag code, yes. No flag is supposed to fly higher or the same height as the American flag. It's why they dip the handheld non American flags during anthem ceremonies.
This is frequently ignored in the state of Texas.
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Yeah, if the Alamo had a McDonalds (and it really should have one), they would keep the golden arches at full mast.
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this is a good twitter account to follow
https://twitter.com/ampol_moment/status/1512100938059857929?s=20&t=jCy00_1KJ4gSg5-bUvlqjQ
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That was horrible and great at the same time.
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this is a good twitter account to follow
https://twitter.com/ampol_moment/status/1512100938059857929?s=20&t=jCy00_1KJ4gSg5-bUvlqjQ
I ... I can't ... just ... what???
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I think MFGA is going to elect France Trump.
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According to surveys, France somehow has way more conspiracy theorist types than we do.
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From what I read the french Bernie bros are mad that macron is too far right so they are going with french trump to get even.
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From what I read the french Bernie bros are mad that macron is too far right so they are going with french trump to get even.
Melenchonbros are sitting out. Also macron is a piece of crap but French politics is so far to the left of the us it isn’t even funny.
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I think MFGA is going to elect France Trump.
No she will lose and macron will make a big deal about how close France was to disaster so that’s why he needs to raise the retirement age.
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horseshoe theory takes a hit in France, maybe they ate the horse?
Hours after he fell short of making it into the final phase of France’s presidential election, the veteran leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon had a message for his supporters: they should not give “a single vote” to far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round in two weeks. Now the identity of France’s next president might depend on whether they listen.
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I think MFGA is going to elect France Trump.
No she will lose and macron will make a big deal about how close France was to disaster so that’s why he needs to raise the retirement age.
thankfully looks that way. also shocking how similar MFGA and MAGA are.
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1517552584457965568?s=20
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I will say this about Macron, at least he hasn't been working on overthrowing governments that he took money from for his campaigns. Unlike his predecessor.
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france trump and slovenia trump both go down. so that's good.
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primary sinema
https://www.businessinsider.com/kyrsten-sinema-build-back-better-plan-spending-book-2022-5?op=1&scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/kyrsten-sinema-build-back-better-plan-spending-book-2022-5?op=1&scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4)
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https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1520702154008403968
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If you sell riot gear: Consider France a prime long term customer
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https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1520702154008403968
Hmmm, weird
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I can see how the latter might be taken as more apolitical than the former.
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I can see that playing out that way. There are quite a few examples on this board who try to claim they are neither right now left but want everyone to stop arguing because they're really closet MAGA's
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i read the first group as "both sides make some good points" and the second group as "i hate both sides".
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i read the first group as "both sides make some good points" and the second group as "i hate both sides".
Yeah prolly right
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https://twitter.com/micsolana/status/1534667950342520832
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;)
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I thought this was an interesting read and I think I agree with it. TL;DR: Supreme Court and Presidential powers are expanding because Congress focuses on partisan warfare rather than doing it's job. This will not be sustainable.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/congress-inaction-partisanship/670486/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/congress-inaction-partisanship/670486/)
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I think that’s exactly why people are upset/concerned with Roe and similar cases getting overturned. If Congress actually seemed to represent the majority of Americans’ interest, most people wouldn’t really care.
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I thought this was an interesting read and I think I agree with it. TL;DR: Supreme Court and Presidential powers are expanding because Congress focuses on partisan warfare rather than doing it's job. This will not be sustainable.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/congress-inaction-partisanship/670486/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/congress-inaction-partisanship/670486/)
Yeah, Congress has been derelict in its duties. And the Court can simply do what it wants and say, "this is a question for Congress to decide, not unelected judges," knowing full well Congress won't do crap about it.
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1547195716438728704
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the democrats have really mumped themselves
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the democrats have really mumped themselves
Bigtime
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the democrats have really mumped themselves
this sort of thing seems to me to pretty much just be switching the gun to auto and blasting away at your feet.
https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1547348750129156103
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Ugh, I hate defending Democrats, but how do you propose they speak to that? The professor who mushed Josh Hawley earlier this week handled it well, but anything short of trans erasure would make Republicans pounce.
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the democrats have really mumped themselves
this sort of thing seems to me to pretty much just be switching the gun to auto and blasting away at your feet.
https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1547348750129156103
They absolutely should get their crap together on how to message it better, but it is not really that difficult to say it is absolutely a women’s issue but it also is an issue for the trans community.
Saying “yes, and” is better.
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the democrats have really mumped themselves
this sort of thing seems to me to pretty much just be switching the gun to auto and blasting away at your feet.
https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1547348750129156103
They absolutely should get their crap together on how to message it better, but it is not really that difficult to say it is absolutely a women’s issue but it also is an issue for the trans community.
Saying “yes, and” is better.
For the people who actually care about that particular issue, that much nuance doesn't matter at all. The trans people who feel very strongly about erasure would be pissed by saying it's "absolutely a women's issue" and there are a faction of women who would actually be offended by any "and" that includes a trans person.
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I am by no means the ultimate judge here but if people have a problem with that they they can safely be told to eff off.
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What would the absolute master of this stuff Bill Clinton say? Maybe something like, "sometimes men do get pregnant, but only women are mothers."
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I am by no means the ultimate judge here but if people have a problem with that they they can safely be told to eff off.
That's the point. There's always going to be a problem with something that someone says, yet it's only Democrats that get hit with "bad messaging."
How absolutely awful have Republicans been with the messaging with this pregnant 10 year old girl? Every time they open their mouths about it they are either lying or saying something amazingly insensitive. It wouldn't be hard to say something to the effect of, " this is a very unique case and we aren't interested in legislating 10 year old rape victims, our focus on defending the right to life is greater than this specific case." They're aren't saying that because religious fundamentalists would go wild.
Republicans can cater to their extremists and people just chalk it up to business as usual. Democrats try to actual consider the feelings of their constituents and moderates lose their minds. They don't say anything and people cry, they defend trans people and their allies and people cry. I'd rather they err on the side of vocally defending the marginalized but I understand why they don't, even though they put themselves in this position.
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article further discussing some results from the nyt poll.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1547576438877855748
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Lol. Well done.
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547683652791717891
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snooki! :lol:
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article further discussing some results from the nyt poll.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1547576438877855748
Recent data from Echelon Insights provide an interesting window on this contrast. Their analysis breaks down the electorate into four quadrants (conservative, populist, libertarian and liberal) and further breaks out a “strong progressive” subset of the liberals who are highly liberal on most issues and also happen to be very highly-educated (and more likely to be white). They are about 10 percent of voters and bear some similarity in size, demographics and inclinations to the “progressive activists” group broken out in the More in Common study—a group with tremendous weight in current Democratic party politics who are described as "deeply concerned with issues concerning equity, fairness, and America's direction today. They tend to be more secular, cosmopolitan, and highly engaged with social media"
is this guy serious?
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is this guy serious?
yes, he's serious.
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Saager w/ a good (imo) monologue on the dems class divide/nyt poll stuff.
https://youtu.be/0uTqJl2OIhM
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He's basically saying pubs are stupid uneducated MAGAs'. Dems' are of a higher class in 'mercia. :ROFL:
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LMAO wow
Nearby stood a consultant, Nik Palomba, who has known Mr. Shor for more than a decade through a Facebook group for fans of the political writer Matthew Yglesias. Mr. Palomba is very tall. “When the Knicks aren’t in town,” Mr. Shor said, coming up to him, “there’s something like a 70 percent chance that he’s the tallest person in Manhattan. It’s actually very rare to be over seven feet.”
https://twitter.com/willystaley/status/1567917841478713344?s=20&t=YxTlb8gPH4AEJ3m_2GBwCQ
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I don't know anything about anything, but geez this SEEMS like it would ruin any chance he had.
https://twitter.com/patdennis/status/1585066053230809090
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I don't know anything about anything, but geez this SEEMS like it would ruin any chance he had.
https://twitter.com/patdennis/status/1585066053230809090
he already won the primary, chum1. they can't hurt him anymore.
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https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1588182079715827714
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https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1588182079715827714
I don't really understand the point here and I really don't understand why he attributes Democratic messaging on crime to "elites."
I can tell you, from first hand experience that a message of more cops absolutely wouldn't largely play in urban areas. Does this guy think black people forgot what the effect of more cop legislation has done to black communities? You could make the argument that more cops is why Hillary Clinton couldn't mobilize enough black male voters to beat Trump.
The whole premise of this seems flawed. Is he wanting Democrats to adopt talking points about crime that aren't accurate because they actually play better with pollsters? Democrats have never and will never beat Republicans on crime polling because they will not and should not stoke fear, and sensationalizing crime will always win, even in his article he cherry picked some crime stats that represents a snapshot instead of the larger picture.
Crime is one area that democrats actually seem to be interested in making substantive change in, something other than more cops, which we know does little to nothing to curb crime. They need to be patient with the reforms and stay consistent with their messaging and not throw everything away for marginal, at best, short term gains.
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I can tell you, from first hand experience that a message of more cops absolutely wouldn't largely play in urban areas. Does this guy think black people forgot what the effect of more cop legislation has done to black communities? You could make the argument that more cops is why Hillary Clinton couldn't mobilize enough black male voters to beat Trump.
i don't know if you're using "urban" to mean black and i haven't seen polling on urban vs people living elsewhere, but i have seen polling that black americans do not wish to reduce police forces.
https://twitter.com/DanKEberhart/status/1587127551100698627
something other than more cops, which we know does little to nothing to curb crime.
we do not know that (paywall, but i've found you can read it on a cell phone if you're willing to read just a few lines at a time).
https://www.slowboring.com/p/defund-police-biden
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interesting thread.
https://twitter.com/seanjwestwood/status/1587533920324661248
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I can tell you, from first hand experience that a message of more cops absolutely wouldn't largely play in urban areas. Does this guy think black people forgot what the effect of more cop legislation has done to black communities? You could make the argument that more cops is why Hillary Clinton couldn't mobilize enough black male voters to beat Trump.
i don't know if you're using "urban" to mean black and i haven't seen polling on urban vs people living elsewhere, but i have seen polling that black americans do not wish to reduce police forces.
https://twitter.com/DanKEberhart/status/1587127551100698627
something other than more cops, which we know does little to nothing to curb crime.
we do not know that (paywall, but i've found you can read it on a cell phone if you're willing to read just a few lines at a time).
https://www.slowboring.com/p/defund-police-biden
It is November 2022, and these asshats are still getting mileage out of the admittedly misguided phrasing of "defund the police," despite the police not actually getting defunded anywhere? And you, gE poster sys, are participating in spreading this bullshit to the Wackys of the world?
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It is November 2022, and these asshats are still getting mileage out of the admittedly misguided phrasing of "defund the police," despite the police not actually getting defunded anywhere? And you, gE poster sys, are participating in spreading this bullshit to the Wackys of the world?
i created this thread to discuss the the american electorate and the practitioning of politics.
as it happens, i don't agree with your assessment that it is bullshit that dems are still paying a price for having failed to distance themselves from defund the police, but even if i did, it would still be interesting to discuss how it was affecting them and this would be the correct thread in which to do so.
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It is November 2022, and these asshats are still getting mileage out of the admittedly misguided phrasing of "defund the police," despite the police not actually getting defunded anywhere? And you, gE poster sys, are participating in spreading this bullshit to the Wackys of the world?
i created this thread to discuss the the american electorate and the practitioning of politics.
as it happens, i don't agree with your assessment that it is bullshit that dems are still paying a price for having failed to distance themselves from defund the police, but even if i did, it would still be interesting to discuss how it was affecting them and this would be the correct thread in which to do so.
Despite the dem President repeatedly saying he wants to fund the police instead of defund them? That's not enough distance for you?
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no, not at all.
it's also dumb because it's oblivious to pretend that what people are discussing is how much money should be allocated to police budgets.
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no, not at all.
it's also dumb because it's oblivious to pretend that what people are discussing is how much money should be allocated to police budgets.
I agree with you but I'm sure for very different reasons. I agree in that I don't think the conversation is about how much money is allocated for police budgets. I think the good faith discussion is how those dollars are spent, now much much of them are being spent. There are a lot of very intelligent and reasonable people who think police budgets should spend less money on further militarizing the police, and would instead like to see those dollars spent on things like meaningful and effective training for the police on handling high stress situations, especially training specific to the local communities they “serve”. To have social workers and crisis counselors available to help de-escalate situations that would otherwise be exacerbated by some racist bad person with a god complex drawing a gun on them and barking commands.
And maybe some of those afore mentioned dollars being set aside for actual accountability of the police officers, as in unaffiliated panels to review incidents like alleged police brutality and unjustified uses of force, rather than just blanket qualified immunity for anyone with a badge.
But that conversation can’t happen bc bad actors know that “defund the police” is a dirty word so they’ll just deflect to that bc they don’t want to have an earnest conversation about much needed police reform and they’ll just say OH SO WHAT? YOU WANT TOTAL LAWLESSNESS??!?
But sys I’m sure you don’t agree with my stance so wtf are you even on about bc I’m trying to guess and for the life of me I have no idea what point you’re trying to make?
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I can tell you, from first hand experience that a message of more cops absolutely wouldn't largely play in urban areas. Does this guy think black people forgot what the effect of more cop legislation has done to black communities? You could make the argument that more cops is why Hillary Clinton couldn't mobilize enough black male voters to beat Trump.
i don't know if you're using "urban" to mean black and i haven't seen polling on urban vs people living elsewhere, but i have seen polling that black americans do not wish to reduce police forces.
https://twitter.com/DanKEberhart/status/1587127551100698627
something other than more cops, which we know does little to nothing to curb crime.
we do not know that (paywall, but i've found you can read it on a cell phone if you're willing to read just a few lines at a time).
https://www.slowboring.com/p/defund-police-biden
People are good with more money spent on making cops better at their jobs, not as good with more cops who are shitty at their jobs. The distinction isn't that difficult to comprehend yet people, mostly acting in bad faith, continue to ignore it.
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i mean that police having too much funding, too little funding or just the right amount of funding is completely orthogonal to police being abusive and to any reforms to introduce accountability.
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Sure, but isn't that the point to be made while rebutting bad faith defund the police discussions instead of acting as if anyone is pushing that as a policy position?
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Sure, but isn't that the point to be made while rebutting bad faith defund the police discussions instead of acting as if anyone is pushing that as a policy position?
people did push that as a policy position, it was just a stupid policy position.
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Sure, but isn't that the point to be made while rebutting bad faith defund the police discussions instead of acting as if anyone is pushing that as a policy position?
people did push that as a policy position, it was just a stupid policy position.
What do you think is a smart policy position regarding police funding?
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This is fascinating. I thought police reform - like gun control from - was one of those issues where there was like 92% consensus from both sides but unfortunately that 8% is comprised of pos ghouls who, unfortunately, have a tremendous amount of influence on legislation.
But here we have sys, holding the (thin blue) line, and I cannot wait to hear why he thinks it’s a stupid policy. I sincerely have not heard a good faith counter argument and I’m ready for sys to rock my world
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This is fascinating. I thought police reform - like gun control from - was one of those issues where there was like 92% consensus from both sides but unfortunately that 8% is comprised of pos ghouls who, unfortunately, have a tremendous amount of influence on legislation.
But here we have sys, holding the (thin blue) line, and I cannot wait to hear why he thinks it’s a stupid policy. I sincerely have not heard a good faith counter argument and I’m ready for sys to rock my world
In my opinion "defund the police" was such a bad slogan that the actual merits of associated policies are irrelevant
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This is fascinating. I thought police reform - like gun control from - was one of those issues where there was like 92% consensus from both sides but unfortunately that 8% is comprised of pos ghouls who, unfortunately, have a tremendous amount of influence on legislation.
But here we have sys, holding the (thin blue) line, and I cannot wait to hear why he thinks it’s a stupid policy. I sincerely have not heard a good faith counter argument and I’m ready for sys to rock my world
In my opinion "defund the police" was such a bad slogan that the actual merits of associated policies are irrelevant
Absolutely it was a terrible slogan, which especially sucks bc it felt like we actually had a brief window where public outcry was such that police reform could actually have been taken on by pretty much any elected official, and maybe some kind of meaningful change could happen.
But I don’t think sys is talking about the slogan. If I’m reading his words correctly he’s saying the substance of the policy itself is stupid, and I really hope he well elaborate on why
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Most people do agree on police reform but conservatives publicly are more interested in virtue signaling. Most people who say back the blue are just as scared of a police interaction going sideways as everyone else.
I'm convinced there is no good polling data on this issue simply because bad faith actors have completely hijacked the issue. Asking someone how they feel about defending the police is a really stupid question and premise. Despite cops and cop lovers trying to act like it was ever a policy position, it wasn't, it was an activist slogan born in the heat of a very intense moment and in the eyes of democratic policy makers, it's never gone past that.
The way you know it was never a policy position is that it has not come close to happening anywhere in America, even in places with complete Democrat control. Everyone talks about Camden, NJ. You know what their "defending" looks like? They fired their entire force in 2014, restructured and rehired. Their current police budget is $70 million annually, bigger than similarly sized cities in the region. The city closest to a defending, since that term became popular in the summer of 2020 is Austin. Their defunding took the form of the police budget going from 40% of their total budget to 26%. Their budget before the defunding was $434 million, after $292 million. Of the $153 million cut, $76 million remained in public safety $77 was reallocated. To recap, Austin's defunding took the form of a mere $77 million cut from the $434 public safety budget.
It's not, nor has it ever been a policy position and those who keep talking about it are intentionally clouding up needed reforms.
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What do you think is a smart policy position regarding police funding?
i think funding is irrelevant to the problem, so talking about changing funding in any way as a solution to police brutality is inherently stupid.
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here we have sys, holding the (thin blue) line, and I cannot wait to hear why he thinks it’s a stupid policy.
i already told you why last night. if you didn't notice, then i doubt you are waiting as anxiously as you say you are.
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In my opinion "defund the police" was such a bad slogan that the actual merits of associated policies are irrelevant
i don't recall that you thought that two years ago.
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In my opinion "defund the police" was such a bad slogan that the actual merits of associated policies are irrelevant
i don't recall that you thought that two years ago.
I didn't think it was as bad two years ago as I do now.
I still support many of the associated policies but don't know the best way to move them forward.
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I didn't think it was as bad two years ago as I do now.
i've always appreciated how willing you are to change your mind when circumstances warrant.
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I didn't think it was as bad two years ago as I do now.
i've always appreciated how willing you are to change your mind when circumstances warrant.
...but regret that it is so often necessary.
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here we have sys, holding the (thin blue) line, and I cannot wait to hear why he thinks it’s a stupid policy.
i already told you why last night. if you didn't notice, then i doubt you are waiting as anxiously as you say you are.
tell me again slowly like i'm a child. I only saw you saying how much or how little money was irrlevant. Not really much of a stance on the substantive aspect of the "stupid policy", which is what i was anxiously awaiting.
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tell me again slowly like i'm a child. I only saw you saying how much or how little money was irrlevant. Not really much of a stance on the substantive aspect of the "stupid policy", which is what i was anxiously awaiting.
with all due respect, i don't think me saying that the level of funding is completely irrelevant to the problem to explain why i think the policy of defunding the police as a way to decrease police abuses is stupid needs a whole lot of additional explanation.
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You should defund yourself for constructing your sentence that way.
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The police do get way too much funding. It's not like taking their tanks away will do anything to get them to stop killing people, but police tank money would still be better spent elsewhere.
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You should defund yourself for constructing your sentence that way.
i can't help myself.
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What do you think is a smart policy position regarding police funding?
i think funding is irrelevant to the problem, so talking about changing funding in any way as a solution to police brutality is inherently stupid.
ok what is a smart policy position regarding police brutality
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tell me again slowly like i'm a child. I only saw you saying how much or how little money was irrlevant. Not really much of a stance on the substantive aspect of the "stupid policy", which is what i was anxiously awaiting.
with all due respect, i don't think me saying that the level of funding is completely irrelevant to the problem to explain why i think the policy of defunding the police as a way to decrease police abuses is stupid needs a whole lot of additional explanation.
With all due respect, I have no idea what any of that meant. But based on that beauty of a response, the only thing that has become more clear is your intention to remain opaque. So we can just leave it alone. Unless of course you want to bust out more of that meaty prose, in which case have at ‘er.
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I have no idea what any of that meant.
i don't believe that you can't figure out why someone would think it is stupid to suggest a solution that does not address the problem.
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ok what is a smart policy position regarding police brutality
accountability. liability.
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ok what is a smart policy position regarding police brutality
accountability. liability.
does this mean eliminating qualified immunity or something else?
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ok what is a smart policy position regarding police brutality
accountability. liability.
does this mean eliminating qualified immunity or something else?
I would be in favor of funding the police more if we did away with qualified immunity. It's only fair, as qualified immunity is roughly 40% of their compensation.
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does this mean eliminating qualified immunity or something else?
ending qualified immunity and killing police unions are necessary but not sufficient.
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I have no idea what any of that meant.
i don't believe that you can't figure out why someone would think it is stupid to suggest a solution that does not address the problem.
Ok I can work with this. So as was stated and restated several times, nobody is suggesting that more money or less money is going to fix the problem. The poorly named policy is about police reform. I outlined several examples but it was by no means an exhaustive list.
So to circle back to your point, those examples I outlined would be some of the “solutions”. These are not uniquely my ideas they are very clearly laid out by those advocating for it.
I’m not sure how or why you think those “solutions” don’t address the problem?
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nobody is suggesting that more money or less money is going to fix the problem.
this isn't true. it's selective amnesia by people choosing to believe the futile attempts to sanewash the original demands, which were plainly understood to be something along a continuum between police abolition and having less police/few police responsibilities. there's no way to make any sense of "defund" as describing anything else.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/505307-ocasio-cortez-dismisses-proposed-1b-cut-defunding-police-means-defunding/
I’m not sure how or why you think those “solutions” don’t address the problem?
i think "training" can be anything from a fig leaf to an effective way to improve practices. i think outlawing some specific practices like the use of force in some instances, or choke holds or no-knock warrants can make some limited improvements. i think shifting police responsibilities to other agencies or reducing policing of some crimes or non-criminal infractions is ineffective to counterproductive with the possible exception of traffic stops.
accountability is the key and imo accountability without micromanaging training or practices is likely to produce far superior outcomes to mandated training and changes in practice without accountability.
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nobody is suggesting that more money or less money is going to fix the problem.
this isn't true. it's selective amnesia by people choosing to believe the futile attempts to sanewash the original demands, which were plainly understood to be something along a continuum between police abolition and having less police/few police responsibilities. there's no way to make any sense of "defund" as describing anything else.
is any significant Democratic politician suggesting that we reduce funding now? (a full election cycle later)
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ok see that wasn't so hard.
As with most things, i wholeheartedly disagree with you on most of your points, but nevertheless thank you for at least finally stating your thoughts when pressed repeatedly.
I know i'm not going to change your mind just as much as you won't change mine, but i'm still just going to leave it here for the record that I think the police are expected to be able to respond appropriately to too many situations. And quite frankly there are several circumstances where a guy with a gun that he is looking for an excuse to fire is not the person you want handling those circumstances. But when you only have one tool in the toolbox you get what you get.
Last thing, i'm not sure how you define accountability but its pretty meaningless if nothing happens as a result. Like when a cop says "i know the bodycam footage as well as several eye witnesses who were recording will show that i did, in fact, shoot and kill that 12 year old (non white) boy because i believed his nerf gun was an actual gun. In hindsight, rather than ambushing him and yelling loudly before opening fire after less than 3 seconds, I recognize that this approach was perhaps not the most effective in avoiding killing innocent civilians that aren't breaking any laws. And you know what? that's on me. I own that mistake. I also am protected by qualified immunity so, after a couple weeks of paid administrative leave, the department is going to conduct an investigation that will conclude all of the things I just said and then i will be back patrolling the fine streets of this city. I want you all to know that I've prayed on it, and that i've learned my lesson, and that I will never make this mistake again unless I do, in which case, qualified immunity...so, ya know. Thank you for respecting my privacy during this difficult time"
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is any significant Democratic politician suggesting that we reduce funding now? (a full election cycle later)
nationally, i think it's just cori bush left.
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thank you for at least finally stating your thoughts when pressed repeatedly.
dude, shut the eff up.
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i'm not sure how you define accountability but its pretty meaningless if nothing happens as a result.
the eff do you think accountability means?
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The police do get way too much funding. It's not like taking their tanks away will do anything to get them to stop killing people, but police tank money would still be better spent elsewhere.
This is not at all a controversial stance but republicans use this talking point to make white folks scared of the negroes running amok and so called policy and polling wonks are more than happy to enable this line of thought.
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I can’t imagine this country ever getting to a point where the people that would be good cops want to be cops, no matter how much money is in it for them.
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i'm not sure how you define accountability but its pretty meaningless if nothing happens as a result.
the eff do you think accountability means?
for cops? not a damn thing. They can do pretty much whatever they want in broad daylight with unimpeachable evidence of their wrong doing, and they can do so with impunity. The instances of police being held to account for their actions is statistically insignificant.
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Qualified immunity protects police from lawsuits, but not criminal prosecution. It's mostly public sentiment toward the police that prevents them from facing consequences for crimes. I do think that juries would be a lot more willing to award financial compensation to victims than place cops in prison, though, so eliminating qualified immunity would be great.
Derek Schmidt has an ad on tv with a lady crying about how Laura Kelly's woke commission wants to allow criminals to sue police, so at least we know that our governor supports the idea.
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it's hard to know how this will all settle out, and i for one very much doubt that i would like the politics of a multiracial, working-class party, but it probably is a little bit healthy for the country if our politics become less divided by race/ethnicity (though perhaps not great if parties instead become even more ideologically consistent).
https://twitter.com/Halalcoholism/status/1590164375398416385
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I personally think it would be great if politics became less racially oriented like that tweet described. Although I’m a little nervous as to what it would take to get there (e.g., Herschel Walker).
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there could be some benefits to removing florida from battleground state status, if dems let themselves admit that it's gone.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1590209264177807360
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there could be some benefits to removing florida from battleground state status, if dems let themselves admit that it's gone.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1590209264177807360
I wonder if repopulation will put Florida back in play, soon. New York is the only place nationwide where the democrats underperformed, and they grossly underperformed there, they should have already secured the house majority but won't because of all the seats they lost in New York. The population in the state has completely stalled, those people are going somewhere.
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it's hard to know how this will all settle out, and i for one very much doubt that i would like the politics of a multiracial, working-class party, but it probably is a little bit healthy for the country if our politics become less divided by race/ethnicity (though perhaps not great if parties instead become even more ideologically consistent).
https://twitter.com/Halalcoholism/status/1590164375398416385
What's keeping you from becoming a Republican now? (Serious question)
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https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1590213966999216128
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What's keeping you from becoming a Republican now? (Serious question)
not agreeing with them on a lot of stuff.
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What's keeping you from becoming a Republican now? (Serious question)
not agreeing with them on a lot of stuff.
you don't agree with dems on a lot of stuff
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What's keeping you from becoming a Republican now? (Serious question)
not agreeing with them on a lot of stuff.
you don't agree with dems on a lot of stuff
that's true. i tried to agree with dems more during the trump years, but dems winning power has helped remind me why i wasn't a dem before 2016.
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Not agreeing with either party on varying stuff is good imo
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https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1590213966999216128
Damn I love some snappy analysis over stupid fear porn. I would have voted for that guy so hard.
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https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1590213966999216128
Yet Caruso is going to will the mayoral election, make it make sense.
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Yet Caruso is going to will the mayoral election, make it make sense.
well that's easy. bass is going to win.
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feels true.
https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic/status/1590261735289937920
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4chan lingo infiltrating politics is just the worst
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Yet Caruso is going to will the mayoral election, make it make sense.
well that's easy. bass is going to win.
She's been consistently down 3 points since they've started counting ballots
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She's been consistently down 3 points since they've started counting ballots
there's still at least 50% of the vote left to count, probably more and i can't recall any ca election that hasn't moved left as you get to the later ballots.
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Ends justify the means, I guess.
https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1590238360534413317
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She's been consistently down 3 points since they've started counting ballots
there's still at least 50% of the vote left to count, probably more and i can't recall any ca election that hasn't moved left as you get to the later ballots.
:thumbs:
The only la race I really cared about was getting Villanueva the eff out of the LASD, mission accomplished.
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Ends justify the means, I guess.
https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1590238360534413317
Rare smart strategic play from the Dems, still think it was bullshit. Blame the republicans for turning over such a large part of their party to the deplorables. We'll in 18 months if they learned a lesson.
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Killing MAGA; good for the country longterm, but prob bad dems, especially mods. Such self sacrifice should be applauded.
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1609535038726496257?s=46&t=gkQd3hMYtmBfDNpgFNptKg
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Good for us.
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Millennials have always been late bloomers, many still haven’t even bought a house. Just give it time.
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Good for us.
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/iHyVaHfEYXZos8qPX2/giphy.gif)
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1609535038726496257?s=46&t=gkQd3hMYtmBfDNpgFNptKg
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https://twitter.com/scottwalker/status/1614306091726143488?s=46&t=0ULQHV0fvEFlqSOj4-CnMg
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/12/12/young-voters-support-for-democrats-slipped-this-year-poll-finds/?sh=7e03e4e27a2d (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/12/12/young-voters-support-for-democrats-slipped-this-year-poll-finds/?sh=7e03e4e27a2d)
They're a fickle bunch.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/12/12/young-voters-support-for-democrats-slipped-this-year-poll-finds/?sh=7e03e4e27a2d (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/12/12/young-voters-support-for-democrats-slipped-this-year-poll-finds/?sh=7e03e4e27a2d)
They're a fickle bunch.
Voters under 30 aren't millennials, assuming this is a response to the above post.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/12/12/young-voters-support-for-democrats-slipped-this-year-poll-finds/?sh=7e03e4e27a2d (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/12/12/young-voters-support-for-democrats-slipped-this-year-poll-finds/?sh=7e03e4e27a2d)
They're a fickle bunch.
Voters under 30 aren't millennials, assuming this is a response to the above post.
It wasn't but I think you can apply to that group if you want. They won't stick with the dem party if inflation continues to be such a problem.
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1609535038726496257?s=46&t=gkQd3hMYtmBfDNpgFNptKg
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https://twitter.com/scottwalker/status/1614306091726143488?s=46&t=0ULQHV0fvEFlqSOj4-CnMg
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He's right. Something tells me that he and I don't see eye to eye as to which legal age should be adjusted.
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kinda interesting.
https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1620851950224035840
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Wouldn't this make more sense to see the data from minority groups also split by college and no college?
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Wouldn't this make more sense to see the data from minority groups also split by college and no college?
they probably didn't have the sample size, but it'd be interesting.
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https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1622651591848230933
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good article on how inflation has impacted people. it highlights how unusual it was that democrats held ground in 2022. given the economic conditions republicans should have had a banner year. speaks to how toxic their brand has become for much of the country.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1640374333389303810
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyiVs1WXgAI9UEH?format=jpg&name=large)
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it pretty much is exactly what you would think it would be. lmao at oblivious suburban infiniti mom suvs.
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who are you voting for? bro, I drive a mitsubishi.
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Toyota has been run by some very smart mother fuckers for the last 30 years or so.
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Toyota has been run by some very smart mother fuckers for the last 30 years or so.
they've kinda had their had up their ass on ev's, but maybe that pays out somehow.
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actually came for this thread to post this, which i thought was pretty interesting. been 7-8 years since muslim immigration was the panic de jour, but it feels from another age.
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1668746731243151361
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I’m so out of the car game, I didn’t know that ram was now distinct from dodge.
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I’m so out of the car game, I didn’t know that ram was now distinct from dodge.
They're not. Ram makes trucks, Dodge makes sedans and SUVs. There are a couple of others that are owned by the same company and are model differentiators more than make. There is also an unlabeled make high on the lib side.
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Toyota has been run by some very smart mother fuckers for the last 30 years or so.
they've kinda had their had up their ass on ev's, but maybe that pays out somehow.
They have the most reliable and time tested hybrid technology on the market tho.
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actually came for this thread to post this, which i thought was pretty interesting. been 7-8 years since muslim immigration was the panic de jour, but it feels from another age.
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1668746731243151361
Was the Muslim ban that long ago? But yeah
https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1654487360502128640
It reminds me of an article I saw at a Mormon in-law's years ago about BYU being an ok place for Muslim students because of its "clean living".
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Picture of my MAGA ass driving my GMC
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230614/2e785b4cf8dc616e34a90af7080a4165.jpg)
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Toyota has been run by some very smart mother fuckers for the last 30 years or so.
they've kinda had their had up their ass on ev's, but maybe that pays out somehow.
They have the most reliable and time tested hybrid technology on the market tho.
Hell yeah they do
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surprised Saturn didn't have more representation
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Toyota has been run by some very smart mother fuckers for the last 30 years or so.
being able to simultaneously dominate the coexist market (Prius) and the punisher cop flag in the rear window market (4Runner) is an incredible feat
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I think them not diving dick first into the EV space like everyone else will pay off long term for them too.
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EV may get replaced by other alternative fuels as the next great thing :dunno:
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Like anything, moderation and balance is the best approach. I know this from having little natural ability for either (cautionary tales)
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lmao
https://twitter.com/crulge/status/1671686958735839232
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https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1673488619418398721
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Your boy Vivek is staying above the fray, well relative to main stream Republicans.
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Your boy Vivek is staying above the fray, well relative to main stream Republicans.
Do you mean staying on message and out of the mudslinging? If so, he's definitely doing that. If you mean he's not playing the populist, conspiratorial, infotainment BS that sys posted in the Riedl tweet, he's definitely not doing that. Outside of trump and desantis, he's a pretty clear third in playing these bullshit games, although Nimrata is giving him a run. He's just not getting attention because he's not a national candidate, but he's in Iowa a lot and trust me, he's talking about trans kids, indoctrination, and CRT more than every candidate other than desantis.
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I'm just baiting sys.
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https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1673488619418398721
I really hate to concur with this, but I do…as was said in political terms after 2012 “why are we so going after the MBA when the trailer park vote counts just as much”
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That guy is a pretty great example of what went wrong and can’t see it. He is a former Rob Portman economist, current Manhattan Institute fellow and has Ukrainian and pride flags in his bio.
He appeals to approximately no one in the electorate except some east coast moderate dems and he is having a sad about it.
He is of course correct that politics is a spectacle but he appeals back to some bygone era when the “adults” and “experts” were left to run the world. While it is true that the forces that have arisen and taken center stage have de-stabilized the order, that order previously was not a force for good for many people and has increasingly become incapable of addressing concerns of working people.
Inequality and the breakdown of faith in the institutions and elites that are running things are enormous problems. While he is looking at electoral politics and “the crazies” he should also pause to consider whether things like people seeing Supreme Court justices openly flaunt ethics rules that essentially every other worker public or private cannot violate is driving people to put that rage somewhere. It is not going to magically come out as a coherent critique of the system, just like when I locked the keys in the car my dad didn’t calmly explain that was dumb.
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Your boy Vivek is staying above the fray, well relative to main stream Republicans.
i don't know if ramaswamy or kennedy is a better example of the width of lanes for nonsensical populist candidates. the existence of nonzero levels of support for both bodes poorly for the country's future.
if i was going to vote now i'd probably go for christie or hurd. but hopefully my vote choice will be constrained by viability when the actual election comes around.
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ramaswamy or kennedy
a little more from the same thread that applies to these guys. i think kennedy really believes the idiocy that he spews. no idea about ramaswamy.
in a slightly related vein, i think it's fairly obvious from the sources of his support that republican pundits think that desantis is just saying what he thinks he has to, but i don't know why they think he's going to be able to fool trump-friendly voters but not also fool anti-trump voters. i think christie has the better campaign plan - you just have to make your case plainly and either voters will accept it or they won't.
https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1673488621532315649
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I'm just baiting sys.
Oops, my bad
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I thought this interview was interesting. Includes some discussion of the "democracy vs republic" issue.
https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux/status/1674084761441124355?s=20
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LMAO wow
Nearby stood a consultant, Nik Palomba, who has known Mr. Shor for more than a decade through a Facebook group for fans of the political writer Matthew Yglesias. Mr. Palomba is very tall. “When the Knicks aren’t in town,” Mr. Shor said, coming up to him, “there’s something like a 70 percent chance that he’s the tallest person in Manhattan. It’s actually very rare to be over seven feet.”
https://twitter.com/willystaley/status/1567917841478713344?s=20&t=YxTlb8gPH4AEJ3m_2GBwCQ
just the first yglesias that came up when I searched so you're getting a quote.
https://twitter.com/JuniorMinton/status/1677838822435098626
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LMAO wow
Nearby stood a consultant, Nik Palomba, who has known Mr. Shor for more than a decade through a Facebook group for fans of the political writer Matthew Yglesias. Mr. Palomba is very tall. “When the Knicks aren’t in town,” Mr. Shor said, coming up to him, “there’s something like a 70 percent chance that he’s the tallest person in Manhattan. It’s actually very rare to be over seven feet.”
https://twitter.com/willystaley/status/1567917841478713344?s=20&t=YxTlb8gPH4AEJ3m_2GBwCQ
just the first yglesias that came up when I searched so you're getting a quote.
https://twitter.com/JuniorMinton/status/1677838822435098626
:ROFL: SD! My fellow comrade!
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Interesting thread
https://twitter.com/wpmarble/status/1703798638693212364?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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very cool thread.
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interesting article.
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1704799556209168604
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I thought this was an interesting conversation with Kevin Williamson and Mike Duncan (from Revolutions Podcast) about comparisons between the Roman Republic and the US. Discussing the question of whether the "toothpaste can be put back in the tube" vis a vis political violence. Good to listen to Mike again after the end of Revolutions.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/theres-no-place-like-rome/id1291144720?i=1000630144145 (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/theres-no-place-like-rome/id1291144720?i=1000630144145)
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https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1720790841172594918
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does a pretty good job of defining some of the ideological divisions within the dem coalition and how those may be increasingly in conflict if the trump threat ever recedes.
https://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/1734716829950419124
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entertaining conversation with Tim Miller and James Carville. I have no idea if Carville knows what he is talking about. Also, cannot believe that Carville is only 79 yo and was basically my age when he worked with Clinton back in the 90's
https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/james-carville-mock-him/ (https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/james-carville-mock-him/)
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James Carville: Modern day frontier gibberish with a Louisiana lilt
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fair assessment from a known gibberish peddler
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does a pretty good job of defining some of the ideological divisions within the dem coalition and how those may be increasingly in conflict if the trump threat ever recedes.
https://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/1734716829950419124
I read the silver essay. It is definitely true that cultural grievance is the main engine of "mass politics" and not materialist concerns. But I have another triangle/pyramid that would suggest it is pretty naïve to think that it is what is actually the engine of people's lives.
There is just an incredibly strong consensus about preserving the base, even with Trump and Biden's turn against the "neoliberal free trade consensus" that Douthat was talking about today and everyone exercises themselves up about.
(https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/courses-images/wp-content/uploads/sites/120/2016/04/15204208/Figure_04_02_02a.jpg)
As for the electoral side:
The Democrats were willing to basically take on the Stephen Miller/Trump immigration program for some money for Ukraine and Israel shows how out of touch they are with their voters and the general public but even this too is just pure theatre.
The song remains the same...
Biden will find a way to get weapons and money to Ukraine and Israel. For instance, Pakistan got $1 billion of their IMF loan forgiven by the US because they made ammunition and bombs for Ukraine, the US also helped the Pakistani military depose Khan who then miraculously won a majority of the parliament seats because the military was too overconfident about their ability to control the election) https://theintercept.com/2023/09/17/pakistan-ukraine-arms-imf/#:~:text=Sipa%20via%20AP-,U.S.%20Helped%20Pakistan%20Get%20IMF%20Bailout%20With%20Secret%20Arms%20Deal,former%20Prime%20Minister%20Imran%20Khan. (https://theintercept.com/2023/09/17/pakistan-ukraine-arms-imf/#:~:text=Sipa%20via%20AP-,U.S.%20Helped%20Pakistan%20Get%20IMF%20Bailout%20With%20Secret%20Arms%20Deal,former%20Prime%20Minister%20Imran%20Khan.)
What was Trump's big accomplishment? A tax cut. People are kidding themselves if they think the story is about drag queen story time or anything happening on a college campus.
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Outstanding
https://x.com/BabsVan/status/1845666257921794418
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I think it's very important that all of us stay fixated on Trump right now, because he is the POTUS, and for better or worse, his office is consequential. It cannot be denied at this point that this administration is lawless. They've straight up said so a bunch. Including today. History would suggest that now is not the time to whistle past the graveyard.
Totally unrelated, but I listened to the new Common Sense episode today--aptly titled "Good for the Goose." I'm glad Dan Carlin ain't skeeered.
Sprance mentioned this in another thread. It is very good. Basically, discusses how presidential powers have become totally bloated to include any powers the president wants to claim under the umbrella of "declaring war" or "national emergencies."
https://www.dancarlin.com/product/common-sense-324-whats-good-for-the-goose/ (https://www.dancarlin.com/product/common-sense-324-whats-good-for-the-goose/)