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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on April 11, 2020, 01:47:34 AM

Title: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 11, 2020, 01:47:34 AM
pretty good discussion of how the theoretical winning sanders coalition didn't materialize with observations on the broader democratic coalition as currently construed.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 11, 2020, 08:16:47 AM
Hindsight:

If lots of non-college and rural whites support Trump, why would you expect their peers who might not to have completely different priorities? Like, "your three best friends want THE WALL, but I can tell that you're interested in hearing a detailed account of what people get wrong about socialism and how its policies can actually work in America!"

Attacking a party "establishment" is not a good way to get members of that party to vote for you - and ESPECIALLY so with Southern black Democrats.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on April 11, 2020, 09:20:32 AM
Hindsight:

If lots of non-college and rural whites support Trump, why would you expect their peers who might not to have completely different priorities? Like, "your three best friends want THE WALL, but I can tell that you're interested in hearing a detailed account of what people get wrong about socialism and how its policies can actually work in America!"

Attacking a party "establishment" is not a good way to get members of that party to vote for you - and ESPECIALLY so with Southern black Democrats.

Part of it was explained that they didn't like Hillary and that's not policy driven.

Could Trump also have driven it himself? Outsider who wants to radically change a party probably looked worse after having Trump as president (again this isn't a policy or world view driven thing but hesitancy against rate of change/"revolution", but I guess it also underlines they don't respond to socialism inherently).
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on April 11, 2020, 07:15:14 PM
I read a quarter of that, skimmed another quarter and gave up on the rest. The entire premise of that article is flawed. Know how I know that? The column is about what the campaign sought to accomplish but ultimately failed to do. Unless I missed it, there is no sourcing from Sanders or his campaign to verify any of this. It's presented as a factual post-mortem, but it's total theory, of which he seems to have no particular insight outside of some cherry picked quotes from other sources stripped of context.

I don't know why this column, which is a testament to the vastness of the internet, deserved to be the basis of a new thread. This is the greatest example of your blindspot, sys, this is a flawed slice of confirmation bias that has no value greater than any other progressive think piece out there.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 11, 2020, 08:37:02 PM
ok, thanks mir.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on April 11, 2020, 09:05:31 PM
I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 11, 2020, 09:48:26 PM
I don't understand his messaging at all. Embracing an unpopular term like "socialism"??? Totally unnecessary.

I thought the article did a nice job of highlighting his traditional view of class and describing how it doesn't really have an audience right now.

I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 11, 2020, 10:32:34 PM
I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment

that's more or less the space warren tried to run in.  progressive party-loyalist.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 11, 2020, 10:34:30 PM
I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.

it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities.  but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on April 11, 2020, 10:49:59 PM


I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment

that's more or less the space warren tried to run in.  progressive party-loyalist.

I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment. (Why did Bernie tweet that when he was in the lead?????)
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on April 11, 2020, 10:52:28 PM


I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.

it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities.  but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.

I don't think that's what was happening this time.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 11, 2020, 11:07:49 PM
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.

normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising.  that's a progressive viewpoint.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 11, 2020, 11:10:27 PM
I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.

it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities.  but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.

Yeah, people don't want to think they're wasting their vote. But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?

If so, Sanders' divisiveness may have hurt him more than the article suggests.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 11, 2020, 11:20:08 PM
I thought the article did a nice job of highlighting his traditional view of class and describing how it doesn't really have an audience right now.

Further, I'm not sure many of his supporters view class in the way that he does. Some do. It's an interesting question.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 11, 2020, 11:47:46 PM
But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?

yeah, i think voters valued it more than normal, but i think when people try to determine who is electable they mostly do so by projecting their own preferences onto the electorate.

that's not to say they aren't sincere in the effort or desire.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 12, 2020, 12:33:47 AM
But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?

yeah, i think voters valued it more than normal, but i think when people try to determine who is electable they mostly do so by projecting their own preferences onto the electorate.

that's not to say they aren't sincere in the effort or desire.

I don't think you're giving people enough credit. We differentiate betwen our own desires and the desires of others literally all the time. We often sacrifice.

I've seen several examples of women on twitter who both hate Biden and still wanted him to be the nominee because they hate Trump WAY more and figure Biden has the best chance to beat him. It would be absurd to say they prefer Biden to other Democrats that they do not hate. That might seem strange to me in other years, but it does not in 2020.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 12, 2020, 02:20:00 AM
i think the approach i mentioned is much more common.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on April 12, 2020, 02:40:25 PM
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.

normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising.  that's a progressive viewpoint.

If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 12, 2020, 10:07:56 PM
not sure i follow.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on April 12, 2020, 11:17:23 PM
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.

normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising.  that's a progressive viewpoint.

If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?

The people who took exception to him saying he was taking the democratic party were
1. Not paying attention to the Sanders led progressives and the rest of the party going back to 2016, and not limited to the election.
2. Not reflective of the people who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary. Political junkies conflate how they behave with how most people vote. Nobody cares about any of this crap. Biden beat Sanders the same reason that Hillary did. People know the Obama tie and the electability resonates more with people who aren't consumed with politics than an old independent from Vermont. The messaging from any of the progressives didn't matter much because most voters aren't interested in drilling down that far.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 13, 2020, 07:05:29 AM
If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?

This is a great thread.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 13, 2020, 07:43:25 AM
Many people believe that causes associated with the Democratic Party and its leaders have done a lot of good things for a lot of people. Many volunteer their time or money on behalf of these causes. When Sanders talks about leading a revolution against the Democratic establishment, he's dismissing these people. They are part of the Democratic establishment. They have an affinity for it. They've made an investment in it.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 13, 2020, 08:45:57 AM
another discussion of the left's place in the democratic party as illuminated by sanders 2020.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on April 13, 2020, 09:29:28 AM
Many people believe that causes associated with the Democratic Party and its leaders have done a lot of good things for a lot of people. Many volunteer their time or money on behalf of these causes. When Sanders talks about leading a revolution against the Democratic establishment, he's dismissing these people. They are part of the Democratic establishment. They have an affinity for it. They've made an investment in it.
That makes sense
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 13, 2020, 09:32:32 AM
That article helps shed some light for me on why Sanders and his supporters might have thought he could get more of the non college and rural white vote. And also their seeming reluctance to distinguish between Repiblicans and Democrats. Overcommitment to the idea of class distinctions/conflicts.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on April 13, 2020, 09:37:17 AM
another discussion of the left's place in the democratic party as illuminated by sanders 2020.

I agreed with a lot of the points but I think progressives should absolutely use presidential primary campaigns to test progressive debates. It helped push the entire party left over the past couple of elections IMO
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 16, 2020, 09:35:28 PM
good interview with mcelwee.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on April 16, 2020, 09:50:16 PM
That was a good interview and I agree with pretty much all of it. The only issue I have is they didn't really get into why Biden won instead of why the progressives lost. Grunwald kind of addressed an adjacent point early in the interview, but if your would have replaced Joe Biden with another sturdy, known moderate without a close tie to Obama, someone like Tim Kaine, one of the progressives win. I don't think the messaging was the issue. The exit polling data and Biden's move left prove that the country is ready to move left as well, but Biden being a comfortable, but well worn blanket, carried the day.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on April 16, 2020, 10:21:57 PM
Quote
It was smart of AOC to identify as a Democrat, because most Democrats do believe the things that progressives believe.

Exactly. The Democratic Party is full of progressive ideas (just like the Republican Party is full of backward looking ideas). It's part of the party identity. I don't understand how people could be completely unaware of that or not care about it or want to dismiss it.

Quote
I’d propose a focus on paid family leave and childcare; ambitious climate action and clean energy; and lowering drug prices.

Pollsters seem to think that two HUGE winning issues for Democrats in 2020 are climate and healthcare.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on April 28, 2020, 09:26:46 PM
we've gotta get money out of politics.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on May 01, 2020, 09:25:12 AM
I thought this was interesting. Seems like it could do long term damage if correct. The demographics of the changing polls might be informative.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on May 01, 2020, 10:12:47 AM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on May 01, 2020, 10:17:06 AM
He's just down everywhere.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: SkinnyBenny on May 01, 2020, 10:29:45 AM
Well President T can rest assured he’ll always have his guy Dax
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: star seed 7 on May 01, 2020, 10:31:07 AM

Actually heard this concern today from the two office trump dudes!
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on May 01, 2020, 03:27:51 PM
Do you all think these numbers will actually hold true in the general election? I would assume that a reduction in support for trump does not equal an increase in Democrat support.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on May 01, 2020, 04:05:12 PM
I think those favorability numbers will come back up like usual. My feeling is less that these people are thinking he sucks ass and more that they wish he'd stop saying crazy crap on camera, like usual.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 01, 2020, 08:43:22 PM
one of the predictions i'm most confident in for the 2020 election is that third party vote share will be down compared to 2016.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 08, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
shor is one of the more interesting people i've encountered on twitter and this is an interesting tweet.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on May 09, 2020, 07:15:16 AM
I'm in for letting DC and PR decide if they want statehood. Of the two hasn't DCs residents been more consistent/enthusiastic about statehood?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 09, 2020, 04:47:50 PM
yes.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on May 09, 2020, 04:51:43 PM
DC literally has "Taxation without Representation" on their license plates. It not being a state today is the dumbest rough ridin' thing ever.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 11, 2020, 12:52:56 PM
good thread, better essay.

Quote
In a nutshell, she finds that financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference.  Instead, she writes, their votes were related to positions “on issues related to American global dominance and the rise of a majority-minority America.”

While racial status threat and global status threat are different issues, they can clearly be intertwined in the minds of whites who feel they are the prototypical Americans and therefore have the most to lose if their country is no longer dominant.  Mutz makes clear that whites’ protecting their dominant status isn’t an act of old-fashioned racism that assumed minorities were morally and intellectually inferior.  Indeed, in this case, whites are seeing threats coming from nonwhite domestic groups and foreign nations sufficiently capable of displacing them.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on May 11, 2020, 01:09:33 PM
That quoted text is similar to stuff Bannon says.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 13, 2020, 07:58:18 PM
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i have a couple of beto related thoughts on this:

1.  this is one of a couple reasons i became convinced, posthoc, that beto would not have been as good of a general election candidate as i thought i year ago, and part of why biden is a better general election candidate than i thought a year ago.

2.  a lot of people make a big deal about beto's outspoken rhetoric on guns being politically damaging to him, and i'm fairly convinced they're mostly wrong.  but almost no one talks about his emphasis on race, which i think is a good bit more damaging (and conceivably may have cost him the senate race in 2018).
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: kim carnes on May 13, 2020, 08:12:23 PM
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i have a couple of beto related thoughts on this:

1.  this is one of a couple reasons i became convinced, posthoc, that beto would not have been as good of a general election candidate as i thought i year ago, and part of why biden is a better general election candidate than i thought a year ago.

2.  a lot of people make a big deal about beto's outspoken rhetoric on guns being politically damaging to him, and i'm fairly convinced they're mostly wrong.  but almost no one talks about his emphasis on race, which i think is a good bit more damaging (and conceivably may have cost him the senate race in 2018).

I think talking about guns in that light is undoubtedly a net loss from a voter perspective, unless you are a far left candidate (and even then it might be)
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 13, 2020, 08:26:10 PM
it might be a net loss (though i'm not sure of that), but if so, i think it's a small one in a place like texas.  not many voters highly motivated on that issue that are gettable votes for a dem candidate.  more of an alienating issue in places like the northeast or the upper midwest where there are still rural and exurban white male dems.

i also think it's an interesting issue because it's one of a fairly small number of issues that unifies disparate elements of the dem coalition.  biden is somewhat quietly leaning into gun control because they think it's something that can motivate young dem voters for him.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on May 16, 2020, 09:01:33 AM

Very interesting and insightful by Rodriguez.

Quote
Mutz makes clear that whites’ protecting their dominant status isn’t an act of old-fashioned racism that assumed minorities were morally and intellectually inferior.  Indeed, in this case, whites are seeing threats coming from nonwhite domestic groups and foreign nations sufficiently capable of displacing them.

One quibble. I'm not sure there's ultimately much difference between old timey and modern day white supremacy/nativism. All of it has always been about protecting the dominant status of whites.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 16, 2020, 06:45:36 PM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 18, 2020, 05:15:49 PM
good article.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/why-the-uncle-joe-cant-internet-criticism-is-mostly-malarkey
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on May 19, 2020, 04:29:11 PM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on May 20, 2020, 08:57:16 AM
Anyone expect a large deficit spending package on infrastructure in the next 4 years?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on June 07, 2020, 12:42:28 PM
cogent insights, the both.


Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on June 23, 2020, 08:21:09 PM
Vox.com: DC statehood is closer now than it has ever been.
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/22/21293168/dc-statehood-vote-filibuster-supreme-court-joe-biden
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on June 24, 2020, 02:01:28 AM
Vox.com: DC statehood is closer now than it has ever been.
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/22/21293168/dc-statehood-vote-filibuster-supreme-court-joe-biden

Happy for my brothers and sisters.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on July 04, 2020, 05:06:24 PM
Slate: Liberals around the world need to reclaim patriotism..
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/liberalism-narrative-national-greatness-patriotism.html
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on July 08, 2020, 01:03:03 PM
lots of implications for '22 and beyond.  probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on July 08, 2020, 01:15:19 PM
Being out of The White House and in the minority in both chambers seems like it would go a long way toward bringing pubs back together. Their common hate of elite, libs, the media, etc. is very strong.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: star seed 7 on July 08, 2020, 01:32:31 PM
Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Dugout DickStone on July 08, 2020, 01:37:18 PM
Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution

It is not a love, it is a rallying cry to motivate the base.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on July 17, 2020, 09:37:44 AM
shor is one of the more interesting people i've encountered on twitter and this is an interesting tweet.


this is a fantastic, wide-ranging interview with shor.  great for challenging your basic understanding about how politics in the united states functions (no matter where you are on the political spectrum, i think you'll find something where shor articulates that your understanding is incorrect).

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on July 17, 2020, 10:30:55 AM
That was v interesting Sys.  :thumbs:
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Kat Kid on July 17, 2020, 10:35:26 AM
I definitely think that is an interesting point. But I would like to see some comparison on union membership.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on July 17, 2020, 06:16:20 PM
lots of implications for '22 and beyond.  probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.


If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government. Trumpism doesn't stand for any conservative ideals but is about being against what's perceived as liberal and has unnecessarily put the Republican party at odds with conservatives. Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on July 18, 2020, 09:10:11 AM
If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government... Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.

i don't think there is much of a market for that brand of conservativism.  it doesn't fulfill the policy desires of the majority of current republicans (christian social conservatism, nationalism) and it has been pretty broadly discredited by the empirical evidence of the 2010's where expansionary monetary policy undeniably produced better outcomes than that ideology predicted and tight fiscal policy produced worse.

i think there is more of a market for a sort of powerful state federalist ideology along the lines of what you mention.  i think that would be a fundamentally crippled ideology because you divorce the branches of government charged with producing outcomes (state/local) from the branch of government with the capacity to address national challenges (federal).  but i think there might be a market for it.

here is a semi-interesting interview with a conservative envisioning channeling nationalist urges into a healthier conservative party than the xenophobic, closed door ethnonationalism of trump.  i don't think it's likely to get much traction either, but it's one vision of how a non-abhorrent republican party might rise from the ashes of trumpism.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on July 18, 2020, 10:10:39 AM
Interesting hearing about industrial policy from conservatives, I still wonder if seeing value in deficit spending and being worried about future budgets and financing debt are going to come back into play.

As in deficit spending is a great tool, but hey let's not kid ourselves we can't do it forever at certain rates.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on July 18, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
i think there is value to the realization that taxes and inflation aren't a zero sum equation.  but, yeah, there seems to me to be some non-linearity in the danger of being mistaken in the durability of the deflationary environment.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on July 19, 2020, 10:34:30 PM
Is HR1 going to be priority number one if Democrats take the executive and legislative branches?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: catastrophe on July 19, 2020, 10:37:08 PM
Is HR1 going to be priority number one if Democrats take the executive and legislative branches?
Yes, in the sense that many viable vaccines will be emerging.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on July 21, 2020, 02:03:43 PM
I'm about 7/8ths through this. I feel like I know most of the stories already, but some of the details and analysis gave me new perspective on a few things these days. Like, I feel like I can better understand how people like Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, etc. can always go out and play the part of the absurdly unreasonable bad person. It's not that they're simply speaking for their pos constituents. Rather, they view that role as an effective, proven strategy that is now a cherished part of late GOP history. Like they see themselves as modern day Newt Gingriches pushing the unreasonable bad person role further and further, no matter how absurd.

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51OX2AgVDTL._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on July 26, 2020, 01:05:03 PM
an interesting point.  oth, i don't know if this is a problem anywhere besides ny and its largely a solvable problem.  but it does highlight a choke point that might exist in some competitive states - and, if so, the party currently in control of election administration might not be incentivized to solve the problem.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on July 26, 2020, 08:36:17 PM
There are places where it will be complicated, for sure. For instance, here in Iowa you have to double apply for a mail in ballot. The SoS sends out a request to receive an application for a ballot. That request then goes to the county who sends out the application for the mail in ballot. If you reach those two deadlines then you get the ballot, which of course also has a deadline.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on August 02, 2020, 07:20:31 AM
Quote
Americans' ideological bent has shifted in the first half of 2020 with fewer people self-identifying as politically conservative in May and June than at the start of the year. There has been a corresponding increase in self-described liberals while the percentage moderate has been fairly steady.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316094/conservatism-down-start-2020.aspx?utm_source=facebookbutton&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=sharing&fbclid=IwAR2nYu9QzfU4YuhdRsoKQLGUF_61lqvpY6pc2YS-PQlh5hEq6HAYZYT9VFU
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on August 02, 2020, 10:34:12 AM
conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: steve dave on August 02, 2020, 10:39:57 AM
conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.
Yes


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Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on August 05, 2020, 01:25:11 PM
couple good articles on polling and 2020 polling challenges.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-nbc-news-working-improve-its-state-polling-n1234716

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/05/key-things-to-know-about-election-polling-in-the-united-states/
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on August 18, 2020, 04:41:07 PM
people really hate hillary clinton.

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: steve dave on August 18, 2020, 04:43:10 PM
Hate her entire guts


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Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on August 18, 2020, 07:32:12 PM
good skills outta representative lamb here.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on August 18, 2020, 07:43:20 PM
LOL also wow @ having Shakir and Tanden on the same thing. I'll have to read it later
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on August 21, 2020, 06:13:13 PM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on August 21, 2020, 08:39:09 PM
Quote
Last month, Biden signaled an openness to ending the 60-vote filibuster rule, a practice President Barack Obama recently called a “Jim Crow relic.”
“The filibuster is gone,” said Harry Reid, the influential former Senate majority leader and a friend of Biden. “It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when it’s going to go … Next year at this time, it will be gone.”


POLITICO: Biden is already forming a government. Here's what his Cabinet could look like..
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/21/joe-biden-cabinet-picks-397905
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on August 24, 2020, 08:55:22 AM
Although Republicans aren't always saying the same sorts of things they have over the past 30-40 years, I think there are PLENTY of general similarities between then and now. For example, they're concerned more with what they perceive benefits themselves personally than with anything else. They're very concerned with what they perceive to be people getting more than their fair share or what they're entitled. In one sense or another, they believe that whites are superior to non-whites and that men are superior to women. They're pro rich people. They're reluctant to change (they are the conservative party, after all). And so on.

Quote
With Election Day just a few months away, I was genuinely surprised, in the course of recent conversations with a great many Republicans, at their inability to articulate a purpose, a designation, a raison d'être for their party.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on August 24, 2020, 11:32:17 AM
Quote
“Trump’s party...represents no detailed vision for governing. Filling the vacuum is a lazy, identity-based populism. ‘Owning the libs and pissing off the media,’ shrugs Brendan Buck, a longtime senior congressional aide. ‘That’s what we believe in now.’”

This aligns pretty well with what we see posted here tbh.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on September 02, 2020, 10:38:07 PM

Kinda reminded me of the above tweet. Well makes sense Oren was in the Atlantic article. Better or worse than raising the minimum wage?

Quote
One of the policies he proposes is a wage subsidy for low-income workers—hardly standard Republican fare. The idea is that the government would provide a supplementary payment for each hour worked by a low-wage employee, based on a target hourly wage. The wage subsidy is, in a way, the opposite of a payroll tax.

The Atlantic: What Liberals Get Wrong About Work.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/contributive-justice-and-dignity-work/615919/?utm_source=feed
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on September 03, 2020, 08:44:46 AM
That's worse than a minimum wage increase.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on September 03, 2020, 09:10:18 AM
I was originally thinking it sounded better, but it's hard to compare without knowing the intended funding mechanism. I guess it depends on if you think some jobs should be automated away on some level (and govt intervention like this could just artificially keep people doing those jobs). At least that's where my head goes thinking about it.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on September 03, 2020, 09:46:58 AM
Trump campaign's big law and order message is arguably not working. Are they going to stick with it or change things up? What else can they try? What are their options?

I don't think it will be a big message, but I'd guess we'll hear more about Burisma.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 09, 2020, 08:41:33 PM
this is at least somewhat, a worldwide trend.  but the speed with which it reached breaking point and rolled on past in the united states under trump is still hard to appreciate.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 12, 2020, 06:42:35 PM
this is pretty amazing.  the dog that caught the car.



Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 16, 2020, 08:02:34 PM
probably the most important question in u.s. politics is if these voters stick with dems for 2022.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 21, 2020, 11:44:51 PM
candidate effects probably make this data useless, but it could be an interesting natural experiment.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 23, 2020, 08:06:08 PM
this is an interesting dynamic.  not likely to be of much immediate import, but farther out, it could.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 23, 2020, 08:11:08 PM
this is also relevant, although my anecdotal experience is that as latinos integrate into american society, they become increasingly racialized.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Kat Kid on September 23, 2020, 08:38:25 PM
I still can't believe that guy's name is Perry Bacon Jr.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 24, 2020, 10:39:01 PM
unfortunate response.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on September 24, 2020, 11:17:37 PM
unfortunate response.


You surprised?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on September 25, 2020, 09:16:06 AM
Maybe the experience of seeing more billionaires in the world serves as an in your face reminder to middle class pubs that they don't want the government taking from the billions that they themselves will have one day in the future.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 25, 2020, 09:09:12 PM
You surprised?

the racial part, no.  the deregulation part, yes.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on September 29, 2020, 12:59:56 AM
with regard to this and the discussion on another thread, i think people do not completely grasp the impact of this.  it is not just that dems are less likely to hold a majority, it is that anytime that they do hold a majority it is with multiple senators beholden to republican leaning electorates.

i'll also add that dems trying to reform senate rules to ease passing legislation in the next two years should consider that in so doing, they'd be reducing the power of the minority power in the only government body they are unlikely to control in the near and intermediate future.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 01, 2020, 09:24:07 PM
yes.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 05, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
i believe that makes sd goEMAW's most powerful voter in 2020.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on October 05, 2020, 07:57:45 PM
What was it
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 05, 2020, 08:21:22 PM
a chart showing the electoral college leverage of a vote in different states/districts.  nebraska 2 was third behind wisconsin and pennsylvania.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 08, 2020, 08:11:52 PM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on October 08, 2020, 08:50:42 PM

So are you changing your opinion of UBI or am I misunderstanding your view? You lost your crap at Markey proposing a handout for a fraction of that amount.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on October 08, 2020, 08:57:29 PM
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Trim on October 08, 2020, 09:01:01 PM
Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 08, 2020, 09:26:01 PM
So are you changing your opinion of UBI or am I misunderstanding your view? You lost your crap at Markey proposing a handout for a fraction of that amount.

i've been a proponent of some forms of what could be called a ubi for years.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 08, 2020, 09:26:53 PM
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?

i think the data are a little messier than that, but basically.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on October 08, 2020, 09:26:56 PM
Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: kim carnes on October 08, 2020, 09:27:03 PM
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?

So it’s effective bc the shelter system wasted a lot of money?  Makes sense.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 08, 2020, 09:28:16 PM
Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.

fair point.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: kim carnes on October 08, 2020, 09:37:29 PM
Michigancat thinks he’s living in 3020 with his ideas.  Wait til he hears about communism, the govt literally provides you with anything you could ever need.  It is lit as crap and everybody has a good time. 
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on October 08, 2020, 09:49:33 PM
Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.

I should probs read the article before I comment, but I was wondering what the housing situation was there (I assume they had access to affordable housing if the results were really good).
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on October 08, 2020, 10:21:03 PM


Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.

I should probs read the article before I comment, but I was wondering what the housing situation was there (I assume they had access to affordable housing if the results were really good).

I don't know how Canada handles affordable housing but I do know Vancouver ain't cheap
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Trim on October 08, 2020, 11:32:46 PM
Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.

Sure, and for that type of homeless, this cash injection worked well.  I'm not surprised.  Now, on to addressing the more difficult problem.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on October 08, 2020, 11:47:08 PM
Quote
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.

Sure, and for that type of homeless, this cash injection worked well.  I'm not surprised.  Now, on to addressing the more difficult problem.

I don't think the findings of this program are insignificant or obvious to most people even with the population that participated, but OK
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on October 17, 2020, 08:50:29 AM
Quote
Kumar: I think that in Florida it’s going to be neck and neck, but I think Biden is leading with the Latino community. In Texas, Houston has been flooding, and there are droughts all over. These are things that are very aligned with the progressive agenda. And I can share with you that Beto O’Rourke is about to release some numbers: He and four other organizations have collectively registered 145,000 folks. Voto Latino by itself has registered over 201,000 folks in Texas. [In 2018,] O’Rourke lost by less than 210,000 votes. And collectively, we will have registered more than 340,000 new voters. Together, we have exceeded his margin of loss. The Texas state House itself is very close to flipping this year. And if it flips—with the implications for redistricting—Texas would no longer be an artificially red state.

Some bold talk there.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/voto-latino-interview-2020-election-429857
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on October 19, 2020, 10:35:54 AM
So much data

https://www.prri.org/research/amid-multiple-crises-trump-and-biden-supporters-see-different-realities-and-futures-for-the-nation/
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on October 22, 2020, 10:03:33 AM
This is a great (non) answer, politically. Justified since it's regarding a big, complex issue. And it doesn't commit him to anything right now.

Republicans have been willing to pay an electoral price for installing their judges. A case could be made that Democrats should go ahead and let them pay that price without potentially incurring one of their own by expanding the Supreme Court.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on October 22, 2020, 04:45:25 PM
Quote
Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Thursday morning that he didn’t know “anything about it.” Informed of the parameters, he said: “There’s no reason to oppose it.”

“I’m sure that there are those that say, ‘We don’t need a commission, we know what to do.’ He’s a thoughtful person, he’s served as the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee,” Durbin said of Biden. “He’s trying to find a reasonable way to get people to talk to [one] another.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/22/biden-supreme-court-commission-response-431302
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 22, 2020, 07:41:05 PM
the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 22, 2020, 07:43:21 PM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on October 22, 2020, 08:25:03 PM
the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.


I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally. I obviously don't have data that shows this but colloquially it seems black men are becoming more conservative the more the patriarchy has collapsed.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on October 22, 2020, 08:27:12 PM
I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally.

yep, this is what has happened, at least vis a vis trump.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on October 27, 2020, 11:01:29 AM
Same cash infusion on homelessness. The one thing I thought Vox might delve deeper into as it relates to the research :cry:

Quote
“While I have no problem with providing cash to people who need money, the solution to homelessness is housing,” Bloch told me. “Especially in a city like Vancouver where housing supply is low and rents are astronomical, it will be very hard to sustain a homelessness intervention without offering long-term affordable housing. I would not want to see these findings used to take pressure off the critical need to provide both long-term affordable housing and long-term income security.”

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21528569/homeless-poverty-cash-transfer-canada-new-leaf-project
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 01, 2020, 07:43:41 AM
I enjoyed the historical content.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/27/how-democrats-can-learn-hardball-from-the-republicans-of-1861-432698
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: catastrophe on November 01, 2020, 11:30:08 AM
the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.


I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally. I obviously don't have data that shows this but colloquially it seems black men are becoming more conservative the more the patriarchy has collapsed.
Lending further evidence to the point that women are the smarter members of the species as a whole.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 01, 2020, 12:30:30 PM
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on November 04, 2020, 11:59:19 AM
Awful. Another instance of minority rule in our government.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 05, 2020, 09:36:55 PM
biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on November 06, 2020, 04:49:01 AM
biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.


I saw a long form television piece about Venezuelans in Florida and their voting habits, essentially he was in a no win situation there because the support for Guaido in Florida was only about 50/50. I think his bigger issue isn't that people though he was a socialist, that's been hanging around dems down there for a while and Obama and Hillary overcame it, he just didn't show up, he punted Florida.

Also if you haven't seen it yet, watch 537 Votes on HBO, it's a very well made doc, it's more about the history of politics and democrats in south Florida and less about the 2000 recount.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 06, 2020, 03:30:35 PM
this is a cool map.  the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: 8manpick on November 06, 2020, 03:47:36 PM
Very cool
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 06, 2020, 05:21:32 PM
shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 06, 2020, 06:18:09 PM
this is a cool map.  the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.


Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?

(https://i.imgur.com/k4c9rSk.png)
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 06, 2020, 06:20:55 PM
shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.


I was going to say he should run some numbers on the value of keeping his own mouth shut but I bet his first cancellation was fairly lucrative overall. (also is this really cancel worthy?)
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 06, 2020, 06:24:50 PM
also is this really cancel worthy?

nah, he just got a bunch of people to yell at him.  for this and for criticizing aoc.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 06, 2020, 06:32:05 PM
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?

i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger.  rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.

my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 06, 2020, 06:36:27 PM
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?

i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger.  rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.

my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.

that makes sense. seems crazy how much they shifted to the right in TX
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 06, 2020, 06:59:19 PM
oh, one other thing that might be relevant.  rgv is like 90-95% mexican-american.  it's pretty homogeneous.  most az latinos live in phoenix or tucson, where while some may live in highly latino neighborhoods, the cities themselves are multicultural.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 06, 2020, 07:04:20 PM
hopefully dems can hold this.  2022 may be tough in nevada, though.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Kat Kid on November 06, 2020, 10:06:12 PM
florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.

the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 07, 2020, 01:21:21 AM
guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking).

i was being flippant, but not quite a joke.  like, there's almost no cost to telling some group of immigrants that you liked whatever team they were on in their former country and it's meaningful to them.  cuban-americans, seemingly, mostly just want to hear that castro sucked ass, and no one else in america gives a crap, so go ahead and say that.

mir indicated that guaido isn't viewed that favorably by venezuelan-americans, so maybe that's not the right message.  but whatever it is - maduro sucks or maduro's great or chavez was great but maduro mumped it up or chavez, maduro and guaido are all crap, just say that, because it's very meaningful to this small group of electorally important people and no one else cares.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on November 07, 2020, 09:36:16 AM
florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.

the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.

I love you
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 07, 2020, 01:28:11 PM
still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 07, 2020, 03:44:14 PM
when all the votes are in the magnitude of the electoral college bias is going to be safely larger than the magnitude of the error in thenational polling average.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 07, 2020, 03:54:07 PM


still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.


How is that defined, only 227 EC votes were from states with more than a 4-5% margin for Biden?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 07, 2020, 03:56:54 PM
difference btwn the national popular vote margin and the margin in the tipping point state.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 07, 2020, 04:26:39 PM
Would it cost less to relocate millions of progressives than spend money on campaigns?  :D
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 07, 2020, 07:12:15 PM
lol

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on November 07, 2020, 08:38:58 PM
Would it cost less to relocate millions of progressives moderates than spend money on campaigns?  :D
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 08, 2020, 04:12:55 PM
for memphis (on 2020 poling bias):



Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 08, 2020, 05:39:14 PM
 :thumbs: Thank You and interesting.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on November 09, 2020, 07:15:30 PM
When Trump was first elected and people talked about lasting consequences, I wasn't exactly sure what those consequences might be. I share the concerns highlighted in this link. I worry that a rapidly increasing number of Republican leaders are more intersted in being in power than with having democratic elections.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 09, 2020, 08:59:14 PM
cohn with sorta the reverse of shor's non-response bias.

Quote
We know that politically engaged voters are more likely to respond to surveys. And so it may be that as the Trump Presidency has totally energized the Democratic base, it has also led those same kinds of voters to increase their propensity to respond to political surveys.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: Justwin on November 09, 2020, 09:35:23 PM
https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/

Quote
As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

...

According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’

The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 10, 2020, 08:03:42 AM
This seems to be a different data set, similar topic. Can't say whether it disagrees entirely.

Quote
While President Donald Trump managed to pull in more support from his core constituency—rural, non-college-educated voters—than he had four years earlier in some key swing states, he lost his re-election bid because urban, college-educated voters swung toward Joe Biden in overwhelming numbers. And in a country that is steadily becoming more diverse, urban and better educated, the data sends a clear warning to a Republican party that seems unlikely to separate itself from Trump and his populist brand of politics anytime soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-election-swing-state-biden-trump-coalition/
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 10, 2020, 10:45:31 AM
Quote
David Shor - I mean, I’m not a robot. 

Lol

Vox.com: Election results: Why the polls got it wrong.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: treysolid on November 10, 2020, 11:04:57 AM
https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/

Quote
As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

The most telling thing isn't the discrepancy in the %'s, it's the fact that they are above 2-5% at all.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 10, 2020, 03:46:33 PM
Quote
David Shor - I mean, I’m not a robot. 

Lol

Vox.com: Election results: Why the polls got it wrong.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor

 :lol:

also, great article.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 10, 2020, 03:50:37 PM
that's exactly what a robot who wants you to think they are not a robot would say
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 12, 2020, 09:45:12 AM
Kinda meh article, but I think the below is true.

Quote
The crossfire between the Democratic Party’s left and moderate wings, each blaming the other for the party’s flaccid performance in congressional races, has been diverting enough that it has obscured a striking point of commonality.

Both sides have similar descriptions of Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill — arrogant, bereft of creativity, generationally obsolete.

POLITICO: What Planet Is AOC On?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/what-planet-is-aoc-on-436258
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 12, 2020, 10:23:01 PM
Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?

Quote
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 12, 2020, 10:45:13 PM
Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?

Quote
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334

Maybe there's two David Shors? The one I knew of was cancelled
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 12, 2020, 10:56:14 PM
david shor?  yeah, i like his early stuff.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 12, 2020, 11:09:55 PM
Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?

Quote
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334

but yeah interesting article though.  I got to this and was like "WHAT?!?"

Quote
The average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.

something about that seems off

other thoughts

-crazy he can point to ONE MISTAKE costing the 2016 election
-The white college educated shift to dems is an interesting one, especially the idea that they're sort of shoving out minorities
-he's got a huge boner for non-college whites. I don't know how his numbers work out but should Dems maybe focus on minorities that are shifting away before being racist-friendly? dunno
-he was less like a robot but still kinda roboty
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 12, 2020, 11:13:16 PM
that is actually a fantastic interview, though.  the best i've seen.  a person could read that and nothing else and understand 2020 american politics.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on November 12, 2020, 11:14:26 PM
kook
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 13, 2020, 01:56:50 AM
a less data-driven perspective.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: chum1 on November 13, 2020, 07:11:49 AM
It sounds like Shor is saying that dems need to do better with choosing policies to attract higher info voters and better propaganda to attract lower info voters, which rings true to me as an opportunity for improvement.

I'm not sure to what extent we should heed recent trends given the uniqueness of Trump. No one else has anything like his appeal.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 13, 2020, 05:26:35 PM
not sure how i feel about yglesias leaving vox, but this is a good blog post and worth reading.  skipping over his reiteration of shor's concerns and moving right to the end - i think this really gets to a lot of the disconnect between what progressives think people should support, what polls show they support if the poll question is carefully worded and what people actually vote for.

yes, in theory, the american people probably would prefer some sort of state-mediated universal health care.  they vote against efforts to install one because they are deeply doubtful of any level of american government's ability to produce an acceptable version.  until governments can produce a track record of competence, this going to be a stumbling block for any ambitious policy.

Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 13, 2020, 06:13:05 PM
Quote
Quick favor: could you update the billing receipt to contain ONLYFANS so I'm less embarrassed when my wife asks about the credit card statement?

lol, at least Matt will keep doing some podcasting there tho.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 13, 2020, 07:02:52 PM
some of these voters are not going to be going back to dems post-trump.  but also, these are small towns, small counties, small numbers of votes.  i want to read the article talking to harris county mexican-americans that switched d to r in 2020, not these guys.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/south-texas-voters-donald-trump/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_content=1605275725&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 13, 2020, 11:05:25 PM
david shor is everywhere (and still worth reading).




Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 14, 2020, 07:57:41 AM
He really does respond with fantastic interviews.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 14, 2020, 01:35:25 PM
After reading a few of those Shor interviews there's a few things that would be interesting for him to address:

He keeps saying Dems need to go after non-college whites, but they choose the candidate who should have been the absolute best possible candidate with non-college whites (sys pointed this out with the Corvette video), and didn't make much ground.

He blames the Hillary loss on her immigration focus during the campaign, yet doesn't seem to mention that as a possible reason that Latinos swung right this year.

I also don't like his he uses absolutes, as if ONE SINGLE THING is the difference between winning and losing in this state or that one.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 14, 2020, 06:45:01 PM
Have ranked choice voting instead of first pass (winner take all) and interesting idea on House representation as well for proportional representation. Would take tho

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/23/21075960/polarization-parties-ranked-choice-voting-proportional-representation
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 14, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
good article with one congresswoman's views on the coming days.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/13/elissa-slotkin-braces-for-a-democratic-civil-war-436301
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 14, 2020, 07:22:41 PM
Have ranked choice voting instead of first pass (winner take all) and interesting idea on House representation as well for proportional representation. Would take tho

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/23/21075960/polarization-parties-ranked-choice-voting-proportional-representation
Yeah that all sounds great. Would like to hear the counter argument
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 14, 2020, 07:41:09 PM
Ezra tried to play that role (counter arguments) in this podcast, mostly along the lines of why wouldn't the structure of our democracy cancel this out (large impediments in our gov't for majority passing policy).

"A radical — or obvious? — plan to save American democracy"

https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 21, 2020, 06:54:01 PM
heh.

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: memphis on November 21, 2020, 07:25:04 PM
Was trying to find the context, sounded like he doesn't believe in canvassing (as a way to win elections), wonder if he sees a distinction between canvassing and door knocking for voter turnout.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 21, 2020, 08:31:55 PM
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 21, 2020, 08:38:06 PM
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
Does he clarify where he draws the line of "high profile"?
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: sys on November 21, 2020, 09:00:04 PM
not really.

just that it makes sense for like school board elections and doesn't for presidential elections, but if he's identified the point in between where the flip occurs, i haven't seen it.
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: MakeItRain on November 21, 2020, 10:18:52 PM
The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with this

he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
Title: Re: political hobbyist thread
Post by: michigancat on November 21, 2020, 10:27:15 PM
The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with this

he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).

it was shor and he was saying that since he was cancelled already he isn't afraid to say it and possibly offend potential progressive customers. Apparently he IS worried about offending potential customers though