The modern left’s strategy for doing class politics was put to the test in the 2020 primary. It failed. https://t.co/X36Z7qhR4z
— Zack Beauchamp (@zackbeauchamp) April 10, 2020
I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment
I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
I read the whole thing and I think not getting to establishment blacks really hurt him more than anything. Also with the attitude of fighting the Democratic establishment. I think he could have gotten his message across without attacking what people associated with Obama's legacy. Also they probably had misplaced confidence that crazy anti-Hillary vote in 2016 that made them think they could be so anti establishment
that's more or less the space warren tried to run in. progressive party-loyalist.
I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities. but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.
I think perceived electability was a pretty big primary issue that wasn't addressed in the article.
it's definitely way up on the list of people's priorities. but i think decision-making usually flows in the opposite direction - people decide who they want to vote for and then ascribe to that person the trait of electability.
I thought the article did a nice job of highlighting his traditional view of class and describing how it doesn't really have an audience right now.
But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?
But don't you think there was more to it than that this year? More value than usual on winning because the opponent is more hated than usual?
yeah, i think voters valued it more than normal, but i think when people try to determine who is electable they mostly do so by projecting their own preferences onto the electorate.
that's not to say they aren't sincere in the effort or desire.
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.
normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising. that's a progressive viewpoint.
I thought the wine cave and anti-PAC stuff was pretty aggressive anti-establishment messaging even if she didn't explicitly say she was up against the Democratic establishment.
normie dems don't consider the democratic party to be synonymous with pacs or fundraising. that's a progressive viewpoint.
If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?
If that's the case, I guess I don't understand what specific attacks Normie Dems took issue with from Bernie. Just the fact that he said he was going up against the establishment?
I've talked to TOO MANY black Southern voters this week (and during my life) I wanna stop and explain the concept of "the establishment" to some people and why a lot of black Southern voters will NEVER vote for Bernie.
— Your cousin’s friend (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020
This analysis by @DavidOAtkins is very good. The failure of Bernie to win doesn't show that a progressive candidate/agenda can't win, it shows that you can't win a Democratic primary by running against the party https://t.co/hRr6Rx0gOP
— Scott Lemieux (@LemieuxLGM) April 13, 2020
Many people believe that causes associated with the Democratic Party and its leaders have done a lot of good things for a lot of people. Many volunteer their time or money on behalf of these causes. When Sanders talks about leading a revolution against the Democratic establishment, he's dismissing these people. They are part of the Democratic establishment. They have an affinity for it. They've made an investment in it.That makes sense
another discussion of the left's place in the democratic party as illuminated by sanders 2020.I agreed with a lot of the points but I think progressives should absolutely use presidential primary campaigns to test progressive debates. It helped push the entire party left over the past couple of elections IMOThis analysis by @DavidOAtkins is very good. The failure of Bernie to win doesn't show that a progressive candidate/agenda can't win, it shows that you can't win a Democratic primary by running against the party https://t.co/hRr6Rx0gOP
— Scott Lemieux (@LemieuxLGM) April 13, 2020
I talked with @MikeGrunwald about why the future of the Democratic Party is progressive and why the left needs to build power downballot and think about policy implementation. https://t.co/C3BXOLf9M9
— a left-leaning but high-quality polling outlet (@SeanMcElwee) April 17, 2020
It was smart of AOC to identify as a Democrat, because most Democrats do believe the things that progressives believe.
I’d propose a focus on paid family leave and childcare; ambitious climate action and clean energy; and lowering drug prices.
Main finding: there is a disconnect between the donors and voters in each party, but it varies by party. Republican donors are fairly aligned with Republican voters on social issues, but *way* to their right on economic issues. pic.twitter.com/ZvuFC2D3pE
— David Broockman (@dbroockman) April 28, 2020
— Jane Coaston (@janecoaston) May 1, 2020
President Trump is seeing support slide among the demographic most vulnerable to Covid-19: America’s seniors.
— Michael C. Bender (@MichaelCBender) May 1, 2020
New reporting here w/ @KThomasDC: https://t.co/GTwP0XZPrz via @WSJ
It looks like the erosion in Trump's hard-core base is very real.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) May 1, 2020
His favorability has dropped 11 points among white evangelicals, from 77% in March to 66% now.
It's dropped 12 points among noncollege whites, from 66% to 54% now.
New @PRRIpoll:https://t.co/H6hSKd7PaR pic.twitter.com/wL6Rdm9GVg
President Trump is seeing support slide among the demographic most vulnerable to Covid-19: America’s seniors.
— Michael C. Bender (@MichaelCBender) May 1, 2020
New reporting here w/ @KThomasDC: https://t.co/GTwP0XZPrz via @WSJ
Here's a quick pass of my positive and negative surprises from the last five years. I think on net I'm a little more optimistic about the future than I was in 2015 but not by very much. pic.twitter.com/Zp9gbv9x8V
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) May 8, 2020
In a nutshell, she finds that financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference. Instead, she writes, their votes were related to positions “on issues related to American global dominance and the rise of a majority-minority America.”
While racial status threat and global status threat are different issues, they can clearly be intertwined in the minds of whites who feel they are the prototypical Americans and therefore have the most to lose if their country is no longer dominant. Mutz makes clear that whites’ protecting their dominant status isn’t an act of old-fashioned racism that assumed minorities were morally and intellectually inferior. Indeed, in this case, whites are seeing threats coming from nonwhite domestic groups and foreign nations sufficiently capable of displacing them.
This brilliant essay by Gregory Rodriguez, one of the nation’s premier thinkers on race and ethnicity, provides a new and uncomfortable perspective on what’s really driving Trumpism, and the despair and outrage of white voters. https://t.co/lp8YoIaS0r
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) May 11, 2020
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i have a couple of beto related thoughts on this:
1. this is one of a couple reasons i became convinced, posthoc, that beto would not have been as good of a general election candidate as i thought i year ago, and part of why biden is a better general election candidate than i thought a year ago.
2. a lot of people make a big deal about beto's outspoken rhetoric on guns being politically damaging to him, and i'm fairly convinced they're mostly wrong. but almost no one talks about his emphasis on race, which i think is a good bit more damaging (and conceivably may have cost him the senate race in 2018).
This brilliant essay by Gregory Rodriguez, one of the nation’s premier thinkers on race and ethnicity, provides a new and uncomfortable perspective on what’s really driving Trumpism, and the despair and outrage of white voters. https://t.co/lp8YoIaS0r
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) May 11, 2020
Mutz makes clear that whites’ protecting their dominant status isn’t an act of old-fashioned racism that assumed minorities were morally and intellectually inferior. Indeed, in this case, whites are seeing threats coming from nonwhite domestic groups and foreign nations sufficiently capable of displacing them.
Demographic change explains roughly only 0.9% of the district level change in Democratic vote share from 2012 to 2018.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) May 16, 2020
Changes in Democratic support *within* racial group explain literally 90X more of the variance of partisan shifts than changes in composition *between* groups. https://t.co/Qr7w1ELNor pic.twitter.com/72iQ1BuDK5
Controlling for age, income, education, and nativity, coefficients for 2016 presidential turnout in the CPS relative to Whites:
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) April 5, 2020
Black: 2.9%
Hispanic: -3.4%
Asian: -12.7%
Native American: -10.1%
Age effects were non-linear but very large, state effects exist but are not very big pic.twitter.com/YU4AtThJPZ
Signals have to be costly to be useful as signals. Floating an unpopular slogan does more to suss out which leaders are devoted to your cause. Anyone can repeat a popular slogan. https://t.co/YYig6tKePj
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) June 7, 2020
The root issue is that activists incorrectly think that the ideological beliefs of center-left politicians are the primary obstacle preventing their preferred policies from being implemented, which leads them to want costly signals to filter out the perceived closet sell-outs.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) June 7, 2020
Vox.com: DC statehood is closer now than it has ever been.
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/22/21293168/dc-statehood-vote-filibuster-supreme-court-joe-biden
Trump's margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs. 2016 vote margins ('16 CCES):
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 8, 2020
Non-college whites: +21 (+24)
Whites w/ college degrees: -22 (-9)
African-Americans: -78 (-80)
Latinos: -31 (-40)
Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution
shor is one of the more interesting people i've encountered on twitter and this is an interesting tweet.Here's a quick pass of my positive and negative surprises from the last five years. I think on net I'm a little more optimistic about the future than I was in 2015 but not by very much. pic.twitter.com/Zp9gbv9x8V
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) May 8, 2020
David Shor on Democrats’ modest erosion of support among non-college educated nonwhite voters, which is being obscured by the huge gains among white voters. https://t.co/XZpAXqlDjg pic.twitter.com/BzZrgECo5Q
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) July 17, 2020
lots of implications for '22 and beyond. probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.Trump's margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs. 2016 vote margins ('16 CCES):
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 8, 2020
Non-college whites: +21 (+24)
Whites w/ college degrees: -22 (-9)
African-Americans: -78 (-80)
Latinos: -31 (-40)
If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government... Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.
I talked with @Oren_Cass about his fight to change how the right thinks about economics, why he Republicans need to take a no-new-tax-policy pledge, how economic policy shapes culture, why GDP misses what matters, how power shapes policy, and more: https://t.co/Nic8Kmsgvh
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) July 17, 2020
Is HR1 going to be priority number one if Democrats take the executive and legislative branches?Yes, in the sense that many viable vaccines will be emerging.
This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 26, 2020
Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.Yes
lol at this exchange b/t @ConorLambPA and @faiz
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) August 18, 2020
w/ @hollyotterbein https://t.co/SogkmgeC14 pic.twitter.com/3xUU2FOd4q
In practice the most popular governors are Republicans in blue states who don't do anything and the least popular governors are a mix of scandals and governors with ambitious legislative agendas. pic.twitter.com/zNw21t4Ri9
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) August 21, 2020
With Election Day just a few months away, I was genuinely surprised, in the course of recent conversations with a great many Republicans, at their inability to articulate a purpose, a designation, a raison d'être for their party.
“Trump’s party...represents no detailed vision for governing. Filling the vacuum is a lazy, identity-based populism.. ‘Owning the libs and pissing off the media,’ shrugs Brendan Buck, a longtime senior congressional aide. ‘That’s what we believe in now.’”
— Steve Inskeep (@NPRinskeep) August 24, 2020
https://t.co/3ntDnETE4Q
Fact: when Trump took office in 2017, Republicans controlled 41 of the 100 most college-educated House districts in the country.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 9, 2020
Today they control just 18, and eight of those are currently in @CookPolitical's Toss Up column or worse.
It is remarkable how thoroughly "repeal and replace Obamacare" has been exposed as a policy mirage, after hundreds of millions of dollars poured into an assault that shaped countless elections and helped define U.S. politics in the 2010s.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) September 12, 2020
¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://t.co/MnMZodJEhP
I count 15 higher-quality state polls since the weekend, including WI, MN, NH, ME, NC, NV, AZ, FL, SC, KY. Biden leads Trump w/college educated whites in all of them except SC & even there, he's crossed 40%. Rs can deny it, but the cost of Trump's stamp in suburbia is real & big.
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 17, 2020
Never have we seen such an extreme divergence between money/ads vs. in-person contact as we're seeing in 2020.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 22, 2020
.@sidney_b and I did a deep look at black voters. Most interesting dynamic is the generational differences. Older black voters are more partisan--they both like and trust the Democratic Party and dislike the GOP much more than younger black voters. https://t.co/zij8D72ndf pic.twitter.com/CSUxusY8WI
— Perry Bacon Jr. (@perrybaconjr) September 23, 2020
The majority of Hispanics..."preferred to see Hispanics as a group integrating into the American mainstream, one not overly bound by racial constraints, but instead able to get ahead through hard work."
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) September 23, 2020
The data bear this out. https://t.co/7jt71W5ILw pic.twitter.com/d9N39bmcPZ
Inequality does not lead the public to favor policies that reduce it. It makes racially biased citizens less egalitarian & more supportive of Republicans.
— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) September 25, 2020
More Republican control in Congress increases inequality, which in turn increases Republican control. pic.twitter.com/q9UmpHlaVY
unfortunate response.Inequality does not lead the public to favor policies that reduce it. It makes racially biased citizens less egalitarian & more supportive of Republicans.
— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) September 25, 2020
More Republican control in Congress increases inequality, which in turn increases Republican control. pic.twitter.com/q9UmpHlaVY
You surprised?
Republicans might have a 64–36 Senate majority now. Democrats would be locked out for a generation, and in Trump’s absence, the Senate would be sounding the loudest alarm bells in Dem HQ.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) September 29, 2020
House Democratic leaders Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn call for bringing back earmarks next year, saying a de facto prohibition on “congressionally directed spending” gives too much power to the executive branch https://t.co/u5S69TxtIm
— Roll Call (@rollcall) October 1, 2020
WOOOW. A Canadian research project gave homeless people $7,500 each — the results were 'beautifully surprising'.
— Rutger Bregman (@rcbregman) October 8, 2020
Turns out: basic income for the homeless pays for itself. It's free money, because 'the project saved the shelter system $8,100 per person'.
'https://t.co/mgaS0TIF4O
WOOOW. A Canadian research project gave homeless people $7,500 each — the results were 'beautifully surprising'.
— Rutger Bregman (@rcbregman) October 8, 2020
Turns out: basic income for the homeless pays for itself. It's free money, because 'the project saved the shelter system $8,100 per person'.
'https://t.co/mgaS0TIF4O
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?WOOOW. A Canadian research project gave homeless people $7,500 each — the results were 'beautifully surprising'.
— Rutger Bregman (@rcbregman) October 8, 2020
Turns out: basic income for the homeless pays for itself. It's free money, because 'the project saved the shelter system $8,100 per person'.
'https://t.co/mgaS0TIF4O
All 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
So are you changing your opinion of UBI or am I misunderstanding your view? You lost your crap at Markey proposing a handout for a fraction of that amount.
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.QuoteAll 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
Hasn't study after study shown straight cash to be the most effective anti-poverty measure?WOOOW. A Canadian research project gave homeless people $7,500 each — the results were 'beautifully surprising'.
— Rutger Bregman (@rcbregman) October 8, 2020
Turns out: basic income for the homeless pays for itself. It's free money, because 'the project saved the shelter system $8,100 per person'.
'https://t.co/mgaS0TIF4O
QuoteAll 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.QuoteAll 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
I should probs read the article before I comment, but I was wondering what the housing situation was there (I assume they had access to affordable housing if the results were really good).
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.QuoteAll 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
That's not exactly rare, depending on the source. Tons of homeless are just people that can't afford housing. And of course homelessness can make a minor mental health issue way more serious.QuoteAll 115 participants, ranging in age between 19 and 64, had been homeless for at least six months and were not struggling with serious substance use or mental health issues.
Sure, and for that type of homeless, this cash injection worked well. I'm not surprised. Now, on to addressing the more difficult problem.
Biden: "If elected, what I will do is I’ll put together a national commission – a bipartisan commission...and I will ask them to, over 180 days, come back to me with recommendations as to how to reform the court system...it’s not about court packing."
— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) October 22, 2020
Listen to his full answer: https://t.co/LojrftvOXW
the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.
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I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally.
Lending further evidence to the point that women are the smarter members of the species as a whole.the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.
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I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally. I obviously don't have data that shows this but colloquially it seems black men are becoming more conservative the more the patriarchy has collapsed.
If you look at *state polling averages* and compare to the 2016-replay estimates, here's how polls suggest each state has changed in terms of partisan lean.
— Will Jordan (@williamjordann) November 1, 2020
FL ⟶R+4
PA →R+1
NC →R+<1
GA ←D+<1
AZ ←D+<1
IA ←D+1
TX ←D+1
OH ←D+1
MI ⟵D+2
WI⟵D+3
Last night was an utter catastrophe for stopping GOP gerrymandering next year. GOP is poised to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, likely closer to the latter number. That's similar to the GOP's 5:1 advantage after 2010. AZ, MI, PA legislatures still uncalled https://t.co/zoyjP2IogZ pic.twitter.com/xij2w0IAqd
— Stephen Wolf (@PoliticsWolf) November 4, 2020
In Doral, home to the largest Venezuelan community in the United States as well as Trump’s golf resort, the swing in numbers was big.
— Ana Ceballos (@anaceballos_) November 6, 2020
Trump turned a 40% loss in 2016 into a 1.4% win, a 41.4% pro-Trump shift.https://t.co/ORwAioaQbA @alextdaugherty@NewsbySmiley @BiancaJoanie
biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.In Doral, home to the largest Venezuelan community in the United States as well as Trump’s golf resort, the swing in numbers was big.
— Ana Ceballos (@anaceballos_) November 6, 2020
Trump turned a 40% loss in 2016 into a 1.4% win, a 41.4% pro-Trump shift.https://t.co/ORwAioaQbA @alextdaugherty@NewsbySmiley @BiancaJoanie
With a lot of talk about Native voting in Arizona. I thought I would share 2 maps. The left is a map showcasing all 22 tribes in the state. The right an updated 2020 voting results maps by precinct. This give you an idea of how Indigenous communities voted in the 2020 election. pic.twitter.com/scrWENDVO2
— Shondiin Silversmith⁷ (@DiinSilversmith) November 6, 2020
The black share of the electorate is probably going to be a bit lower than it was in 2016 and as a group black voters trended toward Republicans. We’re winning Georgia because a bunch of affluent white people in the Atlanta suburbs switched from Trump to Biden.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) November 6, 2020
this is a cool map. the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.With a lot of talk about Native voting in Arizona. I thought I would share 2 maps. The left is a map showcasing all 22 tribes in the state. The right an updated 2020 voting results maps by precinct. This give you an idea of how Indigenous communities voted in the 2020 election. pic.twitter.com/scrWENDVO2
— Shondiin Silversmith⁷ (@DiinSilversmith) November 6, 2020
shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.The black share of the electorate is probably going to be a bit lower than it was in 2016 and as a group black voters trended toward Republicans. We’re winning Georgia because a bunch of affluent white people in the Atlanta suburbs switched from Trump to Biden.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) November 6, 2020
also is this really cancel worthy?
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?
i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger. rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.
my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.
More stunning: Dems will have all eight Senate seats from AZ/CO/NV/NM for 1st time since 1941. And if Biden holds NV/AZ, as seems likely now, they will hold all 8 Senate seats & win all 4 for president for 1st time since 1936. https://t.co/o9kYaH3g1S
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) November 6, 2020
guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking).
florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.
the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.
Like, only 227 of Biden’s electoral votes are gonna come from states that voted to the left of the country.
— Ethan C7 (@ECaliberSeven) November 7, 2020
He had to win at least four states that were to the right of the country (some substantially) in order to win the electoral college: MI, NV, PA, WI/AZ
So it looks like the gap between Biden’s national popular vote margin and the electoral college tipping-point state is going to be about 4-5 percentage points once all the votes are counted. That will be the biggest partisan bias for the electoral college ever.
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 7, 2020
still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.Like, only 227 of Biden’s electoral votes are gonna come from states that voted to the left of the country.
— Ethan C7 (@ECaliberSeven) November 7, 2020
He had to win at least four states that were to the right of the country (some substantially) in order to win the electoral college: MI, NV, PA, WI/AZ
Would it cost less to relocate millions ofprogressivesmoderates than spend money on campaigns? :D
Almost entirely non-response from what I can tell.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) November 8, 2020
Yeah. Turnout seems like it was pretty uniformly up by party. The tell is comparing the early vote results with the already voted crosstabs in polls, they were pretty uniformly too low.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) November 8, 2020
If we saw the head of the ruling regime, and his party, react to the election results this way in any other country, we'd know exactly what we are looking at.
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) November 9, 2020
And I'd say here, too, it's time to be honest and say we know exactly what we are looking at. https://t.co/aLQetMNmjR
We know that politically engaged voters are more likely to respond to surveys. And so it may be that as the Trump Presidency has totally energized the Democratic base, it has also led those same kinds of voters to increase their propensity to respond to political surveys.
“And I would say that it has not been a central theme of this Presidency, and it was certainly not a central theme of the 2020 campaign.”
— Adrian Carrasquillo (@Carrasquillo) November 10, 2020
They get into this but I disagree. Immigration was a theme of his presidency, not the campaign tho.https://t.co/jMLwJMT1BO via @NewYorker
As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.
...
According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.
https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/QuoteAs figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.
QuoteDavid Shor - I mean, I’m not a robot.
Lol
Vox.com: Election results: Why the polls got it wrong.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor
Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?QuoteUltimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?QuoteUltimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
The average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.
I had a long chat with personal socialist, professional DNC shill @davidshor about the 2020 election.
— Eric Levitz (@EricLevitz) November 13, 2020
Among his takes: Democrats won through persuasion not base mobilization, and it's important not to pretend otherwise.https://t.co/IRb9oeU1Cr pic.twitter.com/h3hyRzYU4x
Have ranked choice voting instead of first pass (winner take all) and interesting idea on House representation as well for proportional representation. Would take thoYeah that all sounds great. Would like to hear the counter argument
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/23/21075960/polarization-parties-ranked-choice-voting-proportional-representation
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).Does he clarify where he draws the line of "high profile"?
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with thishe thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
My favorite part of this David Shor interview is when 43:12 in, Yascha Mounk starts doing the dishes. https://t.co/dPLLZ0Mm0O
— Wally Nowinski (@Nowooski) December 1, 2020
Who's right in the fight between AOC and moderate Dems? Election analyst @davidshor joins the podcast to discuss the 2020 election, including 2020's demographic shifts, why polls missed in the Midwest, & the message Democrats need to win future majoritieshttps://t.co/9sePL4LexO
— Neoliberal 🌐 (@ne0liberal) November 25, 2020
pointing out the asymmetry that republican politicos tend to be more moderate than their base voters while dem politicos tend to be more extreme than their base voters
fwiw from what I understand almost all of his opinions/conclusions are underpinned by research, polling and analysis (could probably question how he synthesizes different things to come to an opinion). For the most part I don't see citations tho in articles, he def shares some on twitter.
fwiw from what I understand almost all of his opinions/conclusions are underpinned by research, polling and analysis (could probably question how he synthesizes different things to come to an opinion). For the most part I don't see citations tho in articles, he def shares some on twitter.
i think he says the median voter, not the average voter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem
he must have misspoke. i've heard/read him say it enough times i can pretty much repeat it from memory - the median voter is a 50 year-old, white, non-college male that watches 5 hours of tv/day.
Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?QuoteUltimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
but yeah interesting article though. I got to this and was like "WHAT?!?"QuoteThe average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.
something about that seems off
other thoughts
-crazy he can point to ONE MISTAKE costing the 2016 election
-The white college educated shift to dems is an interesting one, especially the idea that they're sort of shoving out minorities
-he's got a huge boner for non-college whites. I don't know how his numbers work out but should Dems maybe focus on minorities that are shifting away before being racist-friendly? dunno
-he was less like a robot but still kinda roboty
i guess i couldn't quite recite it from memory.
I listened to the rest
Should probs Shor up this thread with a Hughes video interview :driving: (I think this is dated)Oh God
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_a113OGaTg
Should probs Shor up this thread with a Hughes video interview :driving: (I think this is dated)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_a113OGaTg
Guess this is a good as place as any for this. If you enjoy reading rando snapshots of how people view the world/US politics.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/13/letter-to-washington-20-americans-explain-2020-election-433756
The @chrislhayes / @davidshor #WITHPod episode is probably as close as we'll get to "The 2020 election in one hour, explained" https://t.co/2KUbtesPmU
— Mr. Nick Beaudrot (3 years of Summer School) (@nbeaudrot) December 16, 2020
imo, the best shor interview yet. hayes is a good interviewer.The @chrislhayes / @davidshor #WITHPod episode is probably as close as we'll get to "The 2020 election in one hour, explained" https://t.co/2KUbtesPmU
— Mr. Nick Beaudrot (3 years of Summer School) (@nbeaudrot) December 16, 2020
Here's the swing in Orange County between 2016 and 2020.
— Vance Ulrich (@VanceUlrich) December 30, 2020
I created overhead layers that show where majority-Latino, majority-Vietnamese, and precincts that are more than 30% Chinese/Korean.
Vietnamese Precincts swung 40+ points toward Trump. pic.twitter.com/DKZ8LEXw9r
Survey ”asked partisans whether their opponents ‘lack the traits to be considered fully human - they behave like animals’” Between 2017 and 2020, the proportion of partisans who agreed rose from around 18 percent to 35 percent.” https://t.co/VYup1vm4tL
— Omar Wasow (@owasow) January 17, 2021
not great.Survey ”asked partisans whether their opponents ‘lack the traits to be considered fully human - they behave like animals’” Between 2017 and 2020, the proportion of partisans who agreed rose from around 18 percent to 35 percent.” https://t.co/VYup1vm4tL
— Omar Wasow (@owasow) January 17, 2021
Late to the party here but yes that is a big rough ridin' red flag.not great.Survey ”asked partisans whether their opponents ‘lack the traits to be considered fully human - they behave like animals’” Between 2017 and 2020, the proportion of partisans who agreed rose from around 18 percent to 35 percent.” https://t.co/VYup1vm4tL
— Omar Wasow (@owasow) January 17, 2021
Yes, this is scary
not great.Survey ”asked partisans whether their opponents ‘lack the traits to be considered fully human - they behave like animals’” Between 2017 and 2020, the proportion of partisans who agreed rose from around 18 percent to 35 percent.” https://t.co/VYup1vm4tL
— Omar Wasow (@owasow) January 17, 2021
Yes, this is scary
There are sociopolitical trends that researchers can trace across countries and time as destabilizing democracies and leading to violence. Any one of these trends happening is bad. We are currently dealing with six. https://t.co/RITnAKZLkt
— Maggie Koerth (@maggiekb1) January 25, 2021
Thought it'd be interesting to update this graph with the past five years of data.
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) February 3, 2021
Since 2012, white voters have become ~3.5% more Democratic and non-white voters have become ~3.8% more Republican. Trump presided over the largest decrease in racial polarization in decades! https://t.co/zyXEJ2IGnp pic.twitter.com/1lYRq8FYAm
American Twitter users are increasingly adding political words to their bios, at a higher rate than any other social identity; they are now more likely to describe themselves by their political affiliation than their religious affiliation#SocSciResearch
— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) February 20, 2021
https://t.co/8PFxbihHQF
Counterpoint: political affiliations are religions
Counterpoint: political affiliations are religions
oh, that's reassuring.
/photo/1When we look at the likely GOP primary issue concern broken out by whether people see themselves as "Trump supporters" or "Republican party supporters", we see Trump supporters more concerned about pretty much everything, but especially election fraud. pic.twitter.com/WW1GQQBha3
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) February 24, 2021
Republicans are more optimistic about (relative & absolute) social mobility, but no less accurate. Democrats (public & officials) understate social mobility. Dems think mobility is constrained by race & parent wealth; Reps think it’s hard work.https://t.co/6t3tVmwTAX https://t.co/ropHCKTuAb
— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) March 2, 2021
David Shor’s (Updated) 2020 Autopsy and 2022 Forecast https://t.co/7NGZAmYLtH
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) March 3, 2021
I think we probably already do too much to subsidize having kids.
Short answer: yes.
— Dan Hopkins (@dhopkins1776) January 21, 2021
In our 2016 waves, Latino respondents surveyed in Spanish were *much* cooler on Trump than either Asian American respondents or Latino respondents answering in English.
But by October 2018, the gap is gone. Still net negative, but not by as much.
4/ pic.twitter.com/PqmF3rEljV
West Virginia is a complicated state pic.twitter.com/AyjQGrkYU4
— Dylan Burns🕊️🏳️🌈 (@DylanBurns1776) March 7, 2021
Also belongs in MAGA thread. “No one deserves a hand out but me” is peak MAGA.
Maybe better in the post Trump GOP topic but interesting in regards to alignment and policy that the rest of the thread speaks towardsI have a theory that a lot of GOP voters will support getting the checks and other benefits of the bill while *not* holding GOP lawmakers accountable for voting against it. They'll see those lawmakers as fighting against the socialist excesses invented in right wing media.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) March 10, 2021
Maybe better in the post Trump GOP topic but interesting in regards to alignment and policy that the rest of the thread speaks towardsI have a theory that a lot of GOP voters will support getting the checks and other benefits of the bill while *not* holding GOP lawmakers accountable for voting against it. They'll see those lawmakers as fighting against the socialist excesses invented in right wing media.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) March 10, 2021
?s=19This is hysterical:
— Thom Hartmann (@Thom_Hartmann) March 10, 2021
GOP @SenatorWicker specifically OPPOSED the Covid Rescue Package, saying the economy was "already coming back" and it "wasn't necessary."
He voted AGAINST it, along w/ALL GOP Sen's.
Now he's BRAGGING on it?
I'm rolling on the floor laughing...or puking... https://t.co/PPoClIbDGN
QuoteThe Senate is separately working out an agreement to bring back earmarks. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would defer on the issue to Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Shelby has said he's supportive. But Senate Republicans have been generally more receptive to earmarks than their House counterparts.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/17/house-gop-ends-earmark-ban-476696
Honestly I think this is the most positive step towards the GOP saying they want to wheel and deal and be bipartisan in drafting legislation.
For some reason I'm enjoying the stupid twitter back and forth between Neolibs/libs with the DSA gov candidate in VA over housing affordability. California cats how long will this last before I hate it?I'm numb to it but what side is each taking in VA?
For some reason I'm enjoying the stupid twitter back and forth between Neolibs/libs with the DSA gov candidate in VA over housing affordability. California cats how long will this last before I hate it?
I mean that's all kind of semantics to a degree imo.
I'm not in tune to this stuff all that much, but I don't get the idea that people want no, as in zero, regulation from zoning. What we have now is demonstratively bad if it makes it exceedingly difficult to build housing/apartments/whatever and denser housing in particular (I think with the idea that denser tends to give more relatively affordable options than mcmansions, plus potentially other social and environmental benefits).
On continued observation got me thinking more about rent seeking/speculation and what personal property taxes or a LVT are. DSA guy believes very much that wealthy people are driving up prices by holding onto what is now valuable property and not allowing it to be put to use. Which is a thing that makes sense as being possible and I'm sure is occurring, but I have no idea of the magnitude or if this is another flavor of eating the rich as the simple solution/capitalism sux.There is a lot of rich (and also foreign rich) money tied up in high rise condos that get little use in Chicago and NYC. I assume this is true in other large cities as well.
On continued observation got me thinking more about rent seeking/speculation and what personal property taxes or a LVT are. DSA guy believes very much that wealthy people are driving up prices by holding onto what is now valuable property and not allowing it to be put to use. Which is a thing that makes sense as being possible and I'm sure is occurring, but I have no idea of the magnitude or if this is another flavor of eating the rich as the simple solution/capitalism sux.There is a lot of rich (and also foreign rich) money tied up in high rise condos that get little use in Chicago and NYC. I assume this is true in other large cities as well.
Fact: of the 23 House/Senate Rs from states w/ nonpartisan primaries (AK, CA, LA, WA), 22% voted to impeach/convict Trump. But only 5% of the 238 Rs from all other states did so.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 12, 2021
Rs from those four states were also 12% less likely than others to object to AZ/PA electors.
I'm kinda jealous of the Alaska final four elections. It's interesting that I've heard weaker political parties be the cause and solution to extreme partisanship.Lately I've been thinking a lot about what you might call "useless compromises": deals that in a more functional political system would get you places, but are basically dead in the water now.
— dylan matthews (@dylanmatt) May 12, 2021
.@ericadamsfornyc shows us his home in #brooklyn after @politicony story raised questions about his residency pic.twitter.com/xL0EEZJ8Oz
— Courtney Gross (@courtneycgross) June 9, 2021
With Eric Adams' mayoral campaign panicking about revelations that he might live in New Jersey, Adams invited journalists to his NYC home and showed them this perfectly normal bed that wasn't just moved into the perfectly normal middle of this room. pic.twitter.com/yVnb6wb6lr
— raf (@rafaelshimunov) June 10, 2021
.@ericadamsfornyc commits to releasing his E-Zpass records “right away.” He said @AndrewYang can come to borough hall tomorrow to get them
— Courtney Gross (@courtneycgross) June 10, 2021
Despite it always being all over twitter, I do my best to ignore New York politics. However, the issue of whether or not Eric Adams lives in New Jersey has caught my attention for it silliness.That's wild. A while back two candidates thought the median home sale price on Brooklyn was under $100k, which was also pretty great..@ericadamsfornyc shows us his home in #brooklyn after @politicony story raised questions about his residency pic.twitter.com/xL0EEZJ8Oz
— Courtney Gross (@courtneycgross) June 9, 2021
vvv thread vvvWith Eric Adams' mayoral campaign panicking about revelations that he might live in New Jersey, Adams invited journalists to his NYC home and showed them this perfectly normal bed that wasn't just moved into the perfectly normal middle of this room. pic.twitter.com/yVnb6wb6lr
— raf (@rafaelshimunov) June 10, 2021.@ericadamsfornyc commits to releasing his E-Zpass records “right away.” He said @AndrewYang can come to borough hall tomorrow to get them
— Courtney Gross (@courtneycgross) June 10, 2021
Populists - voters who are culturally conservative, economically liberal, make up 14% of the electorate. In contrast, Libertarians - voters who are economically conservative, culturally liberal - make up 6% of the electorate. pic.twitter.com/sYyNCAEnEt
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) July 7, 2021
America being the greatest country in the world is an interesting cultural question.
I dunno what's another one like violence/sex in TV, music or video games?
"School, once the most universal and influential of our democratic institutions, now walls them off."
— Alexander (@alexanderrusso) July 8, 2021
George Packer: The Four Americas - The Atlantic https://t.co/C3BxXLiUcO
I'm not sure I completely agree with this account of the way things have changed. Or with the idea that there were two things and now there are four things. But there are some great reflections about the differing values of people today and how it is difficult for them to see eye to eye.haven't read the article but listed to an interesting podcast talking about it last night."School, once the most universal and influential of our democratic institutions, now walls them off."
— Alexander (@alexanderrusso) July 8, 2021
George Packer: The Four Americas - The Atlantic https://t.co/C3BxXLiUcO
It's a pretty good representation of modern politically motivated white people.
I'm not sure I completely agree with this account of the way things have changed. Or with the idea that there were two things and now there are four things. But there are some great reflections about the differing values of people today and how it is difficult for them to see eye to eye.Man, every Atlantic article is about 3 times as long as it should be."School, once the most universal and influential of our democratic institutions, now walls them off."
— Alexander (@alexanderrusso) July 8, 2021
George Packer: The Four Americas - The Atlantic https://t.co/C3BxXLiUcO
Dax, it might be time for some self reflection if you think an accurate representation of conservatives (YOUR SIDE in daxspeak) comes across as hollowed out evil.
It's a pretty good representation of modern politically motivated white people.
Yeah, it seems like there would only be a handful of non-whites in any of those categories. Do other non-white views of America just not count here or what?
>@GOPLeader will have lunch with Trump at Bedminster, and dinner with @JoeBiden and Angela Merkel at the White House.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 15, 2021
I always wonder with the retire early thing (I'd assume this means 50's), is it like a sabbatical for like 5 years or are they just done and onto hobbies, leisure, vacations, visits ect. I'm sure some do other things in their community that are beneficial too or maybe not hoa lol
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
Yeah this guy’s predictions don’t have the best track record for accuracy at this point pic.twitter.com/ElWFt8cFIB
— lauren meow 🌻 (@laurenkmeow) September 3, 2021
i'm sure my sampling is biased, but i see tons more people planning on retiring asap than planning on working forever.I saw someone say the other day that they were talking to a climate scientist and they were like, “dude, it’s over. Go enjoy your time with your family and do what you love” and that was really scary to me but also made me think about not just the climate but how much energy I put into work and crap and is that really worth it?
i'd have thought i would have landed farther to the right. pic.twitter.com/usGfNiW6jT
— sys (@ksusys) September 8, 2021
Exclusive footage of the discourse from today pic.twitter.com/VVEdQWN1eH
— Lily (@MamentaLily) September 13, 2021
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.
Hey!!!this was everywhere yesterday. am i supposed to know who michael tracey is?
he's a fairly major political contrarian on twitter.
No he's not.