Probably 8-8 or 9-7, but I could see 10 wins with that schedule. I'm an admitted optimist but I don't think there are any games that they have absolutely no shot at winning outside of @Denver
I can agree with that, but the real problem is that there isn't a single game on the schedule that you can point to and say "yeah, they're winning that game." It's hard to predict they will even go .500 when you consider how awful they were last year and their biggest upgrade over the off season was Alex Smith.
I agree with your sentiment based on the fact that the Chiefs went 2-14 last year and until they win some games it's impossible to have any reasonable expectations...but I think the Jaguars, Raiders and Titans are all going to be miserable football teams. Sprinkle in a few games against the Browns, Eagles and Bills (with Kevin Kolb at QB, not Chief killer Ryan Fitzpatrick) and I would say there are a handful of games that I am mostly confident about. I'm not predicting them to necessarily win all of those games (I only predicted 8-8 or 9-7), but I think the chances of going 5-2 against those teams is very realistic, leaving the hope for just a 3-6 record against the remaining schedule in order to go .500.
Against last year's schedule, this year's Chiefs probably win 4-6 games, but this schedule is very cupcake.