I think it's foolish to look at 1 year's data set to try and predict how this will affect recruiting forever.
Of course schools that pay the most are going to increase their recruiting prowess. It's absurd to think otherwise.
I'm willing to bet that after five years, there will be no power shift due to NIL. You'll see the little guys get one offs, like Jackson State did yesterday. But 150 years of college football tradition isn't going to get flipped on it's head because of this. The powers have not changed and won't change. I think NIL will do what the scholarship reduction did and that's expanding the middle class, it didn't change who the elites are.
If Carl Ice decided to dedicate his millions exclusively to NIL, it might pull us out of the 50s into the fringes of the top 25 classes. If we were able to match Carl's millions with a top 5 coach with a dynamite recruiting staff, we might have a great year or two, until a school with 8 Carl Ice's comes and take that coach.
This thought that a booster could pull a program into something they aren't, without consideration of all the other things that make a program elite is a fantasy. We have all the evidence you want to see already out there. Oregon has now lost two straight pedestrian head coaches to programs who were currently terrible but are historical powers with built in advantages that Oregon doesn't have. Ole Miss had the #1 recruiting class with a dude perceived to be a decent coach, they couldn't even get a division title and couldn't sustain being top 25 while that class was still in school.
There's been no restrictions on a school simply buying a championship, ever wonder why it hasn't happened yet?