Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)

[sys]

 

https://twitter.com/RyanRadia/status/1555358823875022851

[steve dave]

There are better options now. Kalshi is one.


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[sys]

There are better options now. Kalshi is one.

it doesn't seem to have any elections?

[chum1]

Under what circumstances would you bet on the presidential election?

Harris at 41.3 has my attention. Not sure how much lower that can go before I start seriously considering it.

[steve dave]

There are a ton of viable reasons to do so. If there weren't caps I'd consider it for professional and market reasons. Hard to make it make sense at scale given $ limitations but the idea of some enterprise wanting to hedge against a potential victory by an adversary and the market ramifications is clear. Other than that I've bet on tons of stuff because I knew if they came to fruition I'd suffer professionally/personally. It's a great facultative reinsurance option to have and if it ever scaled big enough it would be incredible.

[steve dave]

like if you have a giant wind deductible (this isn't presidential election specific) on your house you can bet on the chance a tornado touches down in Sarpy Co. NE. Buy that on the market instead of paying State Farm for it imo (if cheaper and available and in the $ amount available).

[steve dave]

You could pay Munich Re., Gen Re, Swiss Re. or, god forbid London Markets for it. and it won't be a good value in those marketplaces because why the eff would it be they make a shitload of money. BUT, if enough dumbshits are willing to less intelligently back it and a marketplace is willing to guarantee it hold onto your asses.

[chum1]

What's the dollar limit?

[steve dave]

What's the dollar limit?

never makes 6 figures from what I've seen. I think Kalshi is $25k.

[steve dave]

London Markets will back you on it for sure and tons of enterprises do place those "bets". The vig is enormous inline with the money spent though.

[chum1]

Harris win down to 38.3 on Polymarket. I'm starting to get serious.

[steve dave]

Harris win down to 38.3 on Polymarket. I'm starting to get serious.

maybe a good bet (even though I think it's ultimately a loser)

https://www.newsweek.com/who-polymarket-mystery-trader-fredi9999-1969646

[steve dave]

polymarket must not have caps. which makes sense since Thiel is backing it.

[chum1]

Wild West crypto market.

[steve dave]

I have clients that fly out for a week annually and meet with london markets brokers to hedge their operations on all kinds of stuff like this. climate is a big one right now. hurricanes, convective storms, heat, fires, weather derivatives, all that stuff. a lot of times it's easier to just place a bet and if it happens you cash a big check to offset your potential losses. giant markups on it but admitted insurance can't back that. and sometimes that's the easiest way to hedge. it's a fascinating business. you can meet with these market makers and just tell them the wildest scenario you want to "bet" on and they will find a backer for it almost 100% of the time. underwriting this stuff is a really fun job irl. more people who got Cs in college and barely graduated with a generic business adjace degree from Kansas State should know about it.

[Spracne]

stevedave got drunk on MLs last night and dropped some serious insurance industry talk ITT.

[steve dave]

stevedave got drunk on MLs last night and dropped some serious insurance industry talk ITT.

feeling my oats

[wetwillie]

He kind of lulls you to sleep with the lmao'ng at Dax and the $800 baseball bats. Then reminds you that he's not even remotely on your level.

[Cire]

https://x.com/alex_kirshner/status/1846611852119474477?s=46&t=qihx_M5rao00w7e29gt7Rw


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[steve dave]

https://x.com/alex_kirshner/status/1846611852119474477?s=46&t=qihx_M5rao00w7e29gt7Rw


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I've got some bad news for anyone who thinks money can't call this thing better than the shitty polls you see trotted out there. markets aren't efficient (yet) but it's better than polling imo.

[star seed 7]

Without reading anything and not going into deep thought about it, political betting markets (like predictit or whatever, not whatever sd is talking about) seem too emotionally based to put any real value on them vs polling (which I also place little value in beyond general trends)

[steve dave]

Without reading anything and not going into deep thought about it, political betting markets (like predictit or whatever, not whatever sd is talking about) seem too emotionally based to put any real value on them vs polling (which I also place little value in beyond general trends)

the markets will eventually be efficient. and then you can set your watch by them because money isn't dumb. people are dumb. but money is always ultimately smart. we don't have efficient markets for this yet but we will. and it won't be long.

[Pete]

My question is whether political betting lines will be more reliably predictive than sports betting lines?

[Rage Against the McKee]

My question is whether political betting lines will be more reliably predictive than sports betting lines?

I don't think elections happen often enough for that to happen. Best information anyone has to go on is polling paired with results from previous years.

[steve dave]

Sports lines are about as accurate as anything will ever be from what I can tell. And the thing about them is people only bet on them to make money, so that makes sense. With political markets people can hedge other externalities by using them so they may not represent actual outcome probabilities as much unless people REALLY start using them to make money. But I think people can also more easily call them because you aren’t needing to rely on the individual performance of a bunch of athletes.


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