goemaw.com
General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: Kat Kid on April 28, 2020, 10:13:57 PM
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sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
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sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
:party:
i hold biden nominee and biden president too. the nominee number is ridiculous, almost free money but it seems so easy that i get nervous about reade or the virus sneaking in and rough ridin' things up before the convention (note: iirc, i actually paid a few cents more for trump no instead of biden yes as virus/reade protection, which was probably stupid).
when is the ks election? there aren't many interesting senate and congressional races active now, kobach no is tempting when there's not much action anywhere else.
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I think some of the Q flavored indictment markets might be good to get in.
I blew through my initial deposit pretty quick buying positions and will definitely put more in tomorrow.
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Oh Popular vote wins electoral college is way undervalued, you should buy that.
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I need to read up a bit more, but I might like a couple of the world markets.
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Oh Popular vote wins electoral college is way undervalued, you should buy that.
that's a good find. nice backdoor way to play the election.
i try to stick to just betting the elections. i'm sure there are some good bets among the other stuff, but i don't know how to go about researching them.
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sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
:party:
i hold biden nominee and biden president too. the nominee number is ridiculous, almost free money but it seems so easy that i get nervous about reade or the virus sneaking in and rough ridin' things up before the convention (note: iirc, i actually paid a few cents more for trump no instead of biden yes as virus/reade protection, which was probably stupid).
when is the ks election? there aren't many interesting senate and congressional races active now, kobach no is tempting when there's not much action anywhere else.
early voting starts July 15, Aug 4 is "primary day" but who knows?
Wagle is still in the race and with the COVID voting uncertainty I maybe shouldn't be so cocky, but hard to imagine Kobach has as much goodwill after that dreadful showing in the governor's race. Plus, he barely won the primary last time against someone much less popular than Marshall still makes this a pretty easy buy.
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Oh Popular vote wins electoral college is way undervalued, you should buy that.
that's a good find. nice backdoor way to play the election.
i try to stick to just betting the elections. i'm sure there are some good bets among the other stuff, but i don't know how to go about researching them.
I get very rough ridin' nervous clicking because of the way things are phrased when they have the 4 way betting, but I think I will get used to it.
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i've definitely made bets where i didn't fully understand everything i was betting on.
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Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.
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Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.
i already pre-donated a lot of my winnings to beto, but what's left will go to a couple of congressional races and the fresno mayoral race.
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Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.
Excuse me, this is a “market.”
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Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.
Excuse me, this is a “market.”
:lol: :lol: :lol:
I love "marketing"!! Where can I get some action?
Even though this one simple vice may send me straight to hell, I still wanna play.
:peek:
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I can’t in good conscience provide you with a link, but if you are strongly motivated I know you will find your way there. Stay on the straight and narrow friend.
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I can’t in good conscience provide you with a link, but if you are strongly motivated I know you will find your way there. Stay on the straight and narrow friend.
:shakesfist: :shakesfist: :shakesfist:
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lol
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justwin, i see you lurking. come on in!
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I think some of the Q flavored indictment markets might be good to get in.
I blew through my initial deposit pretty quick buying positions and will definitely put more in tomorrow.
I might have done some research and found this top secret marketing portal...
Can confirm some of the indictment markets look super juicy!
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justwin, i see you lurking. come on in!
The title of the thread is pretty exclusive.
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justwin, i see you lurking. come on in!
The title of the thread is pretty exclusive.
Once I crashed the party, the exclusivity of this club took a YUGE hit.
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sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
I think the Kobach bet is good value. I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee. I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight. I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.
The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%. I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee. The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.
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sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
I think the Kobach bet is good value. I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee. I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight. I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.
The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%. I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee. The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.
best values:
1) biden for dem nom
2) electoral winner is popular vote winner
3) Kobach NO
4) Biden for prez
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clinton no is selling for 92 cents right now.
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sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
I think the Kobach bet is good value. I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee. I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight. I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.
The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%. I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee. The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.
best values:
1) biden for dem nom
2) electoral winner is popular vote winner
3) Kobach NO
4) Biden for prez
It's totally a gut feeling, but I can't see how they actually run sleepy joe unless they really think they can rig the election and win with HRC as VP candidate to push her in as president.
I'm gonna load an account and buy a position on all three or four yes's on indictments while the court cases are heating up as they're anywhere from about 20-1 to 8-1. So, just need one to hit to cover all four positions.
Also, pushing out the DNC convention makes it more likely to slip somebody else in in place of Sleepy Joe... HRC maybe? Seems like a lot of value on Biden "no" and HRC "yes". HRC at almost 8:1 just to run is insane value, imho. Am I correct that she could avoid a potential indictment just by throwing her hat in the ring?
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I'm pretty sure dax still thinks Hillary will be the nominee as well, you should talk with him.
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Hillary is not coming anywhere near that White House.
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Hmmmm... You've got me thinking, KK.
Watching Biden try to form a complete sentence is painful. As such it's just hard to imagine that's the pony they're gonna put in the Derby.
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How do payouts work on this thing?
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How do payouts work on this thing?
You pay 5% withdrawal fee and a 10% fee on winnings, so you need to take that in to consideration.
I haven’t cashed out yet, but it is run by an academic institution so it isn’t going to be sketchy I don’t think.
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yeah, cashing out is fine. no problems. the commissions are very high and they can be very slow to settle sometimes (not their fault, when states take forever to finalize votes). otherwise straightforward.
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Biden as nominee now down under $.80, I just bought more YES
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God some of these markets are so dumb.
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God some of these markets are so dumb.
it's been weird for so long i'm starting to doubt myself.
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God some of these markets are so dumb.
it's been weird for so long i'm starting to doubt myself.
lot of people willing to pay good money to be wrong
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I don’t follow who I’d be betting/trading with and when I’d win/lose.
I’m confident america will eff up and trump will win the election somehow. How would my wager on that work? The thing currently says trump 50 cents, biden 43.
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You bet Trump 50. Then if he wins you win like 90 cents for every dollar you bet (because he’s even money). Then you pay 5% to withdraw all of it. They get you for 15% of every dollar essentially. The math won’t be 100% there but you get the idea.
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So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?
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What are your fees?
Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit. There is no fee if you sell your shares at the same price that you paid or at a lower price.
There is no charge to open a PredictIt account or to deposit funds.
PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals.
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So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?
Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.
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Trump Wins
50c
+ 50c
-__10c_fee (50c x .10 = .05)___
95c
- 5c cashout fee
___________
90c = 40c profit per share
fixed
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on a 90+% bet they are taking 10% of the profit not 10c, but if you only trade on markets with less than a 5c spread you will lose money on cash out.
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So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?
Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.
Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?
That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.
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So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?
Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.
Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?
That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.
you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.
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Trump Wins
50c
+ 50c
-__10c_fee___
90c
- 5c cashout fee
___________
85c = 35c profit per share
My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:
Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)
Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)
This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.
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So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?
Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.
Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?
That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.
you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.
An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously. This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market. Obviously, if my wife and I both have accounts (or if you create two separate accounts), we could get around this rule.
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Trump Wins
50c
+ 50c
-__10c_fee___
90c
- 5c cashout fee
___________
85c = 35c profit per share
My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:
Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)
Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)
This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.
ah yeah you are right I went back and fixed it after I looked
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Trump Wins
50c
+ 50c
-__10c_fee___
90c
- 5c cashout fee
___________
85c = 35c profit per share
My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:
Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)
Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)
This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.
ah yeah you are right I went back and fixed it after I looked
That's not bad... in @Trim's example comparing it to standard vegas vig of -110 it really comes out to about -111 or -112 in this scenario. Without running a bunch of math, those numbers could swing a few points depending on "odds", right.
I mean if you bought HRC to be indicted by 06/30/2020 at 6 cents and it hits, then you're looking at 94 cents profit but the position paid almost 20:1...
Thanks for sharing this marketing scheme, KK... :gocho:
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So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?
Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.
Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?
That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.
you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.
An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously. This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market. Obviously, if my wife and I both have accounts (or if you create two separate accounts), we could get around this rule.
you could always trade in and out of positions before it closes.
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An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously. This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market.
there are lots of creative ways to hedge. as an example, i bet big on all of the younger moderate candidates winning the nomination, but i hedged by betting an offsetting amount that biden would win it.
other common and easy hedges are to pair the national election with some correlated state election or to pair the presidential election in some state with a senate, gubernatorial or even congressional race in that state.
it's nice because you can sometimes find hedges where there are decent chances you win both your bet and your hedge.
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feel like i'm turning a very unwise corner in viewing my bets as the best place to earn a risk-adjusted return instead of as a fun way to make a little money off of my otherwise useless interest in politics.
no going back though.
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What are your latest positions?
I’m letting the no Kobach position close today, going to have my Biden as dem nominee cash. May just withdraw.
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i have small, for-entertainment-purposes only bets on kobach no and watkins yes. other than those, i have four different bets on the dem nomination (not including a bunch of non-viable positions) and 16 different bets on the presidential election. and one small bet still outstanding from the texas primary (us house).
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It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.
Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix? Or some amount that follows that ratio?
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It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.
Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix? Or some amount that follows that ratio?
By win, do you mean inaugurated?
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It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.
Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix? Or some amount that follows that ratio?
By win, do you mean inaugurated?
Yeah, like whichever one the end result president is. We have to factor in america's stupidity as well as any shady crap anyone does before and after election day. But it's the former that has me convinced trump will win until I'm proven wrong.
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It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.
Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix? Or some amount that follows that ratio?
By win, do you mean inaugurated?
Yeah, like whichever one the end result president is. We have to factor in america's stupidity as well as any shady crap anyone does before and after election day. But it's the former that has me convinced trump will win until I'm proven wrong.
Oh I agree, that's why I wanted to clarify "win." Also, I will NOT take that bet.
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Those odds aren’t great. I bought Biden under 50.
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Those odds aren’t great. I bought Biden under 50.
biden is still a good deal.
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Sys, set the fair ratio for a straight trump vs biden bet between gE’rs.
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90% biden.
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Ok, who wants to take biden and put up a multiple of $90 against my multiple of $10 on trump.
I’ll also consider less lopsided odds.
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will the republican win california is selling for 94 cents, which is insane. if you already have money in predictit, it's a nobrainer to pick up your 5.4 cents over three months. if you have to put new money in, it may or may not be worth your time and your money's time.
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will the republican win california is selling for 94 cents, which is insane. if you already have money in predictit, it's a nobrainer to pick up your 5.4 cents over three months. if you have to put new money in, it may or may not be worth your time and your money's time.
Yeah that is a good idea
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The Alabama Senate race is also free money.
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The Alabama Senate race is also free money.
yeah, good find. i like bets that both act as a hedge on betting biden but also should pay out even if biden wins like that one.
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I went ahead and signed up for this to bet on trump and against biden.
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will the republican win california is selling for 94 cents, which is insane. if you already have money in predictit, it's a nobrainer to pick up your 5.4 cents over three months. if you have to put new money in, it may or may not be worth your time and your money's time.
So looking at this and trying to understand. So buy it at 94 cents now and as it gets closer that price will go up and people will be buying at 99 which would be the max? After the event happens what amount is paid out the the shareholders? the whole dollar?
NM I found the answer, yes you get a dollar when the event closes if right.
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will the dem nominee be a woman - no is selling for 95 cents, which means you can put new money in on that and pay off the fees in under 2 weeks and then have that money free and clear for the rest of the election season.
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actually, you can still get biden wins dem nomination for 94 cents (lol), so that's an even better deal if you're confident he can survive another couple of weeks.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511277-willie-brown-kamala-harris-should-politely-decline-any-offer-to-be-bidens (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511277-willie-brown-kamala-harris-should-politely-decline-any-offer-to-be-bidens)
this is weird as hell. makes me think its not kamala!
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I think it's going to be Susan Rice.
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I think it's going to be Susan Rice.
To own the pubs
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511277-willie-brown-kamala-harris-should-politely-decline-any-offer-to-be-bidens (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511277-willie-brown-kamala-harris-should-politely-decline-any-offer-to-be-bidens)
this is weird as hell. makes me think its not kamala!
I had been lulled into the don't overthink it, it's Harris.
I assume they still get along, but maybe not. Only other explanation I can think of other than him helping spin her not getting picked.
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i wouldn't assume that harris knows or cares that brown is still alive.
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i wouldn't assume that harris knows or cares that brown is still alive.
I'd assume you're wrong, he's still a fairly major voice in SF politics. And I didn't even know this until I read that article.
Brown, who served as mayor from 1996 to 2004, has said he briefly dated Harris while she was an Alameda County, Calif., deputy district attorney.
:surprised:
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you don't remember that? he dated her and then started her political career with key appointments!
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you don't remember that? he dated her and then started her political career with key appointments!
not at all
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it was definitely a thing in the primary
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K-Hive got big mad about people talking about 29 year old Kamala dating 60 year Willie Brown and setting her up with key appointments/introducing her to donors and jumpstarting her political career. it was very funny.
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actually, you can still get biden wins dem nomination for 94 cents (lol), so that's an even better deal if you're confident he can survive another couple of weeks.
ticket cashed on this!
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ticket cashed on this!
lotta money freed up today. feels like christmas. trying to force myself (failing so far) to only buy republican for the next week since there is a bunch of dem money just freed up. and then to place dem bets after the trump money gets paid out.
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I didn't pull the trigger on the Iowa Senate race yet, Ernst is starting to walk closer with the cheeto so I'm a bit leery.
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I bet on Hillary not running. When do I win?
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I bet on Hillary not running. When do I win?
i also have money here, and i'm not sure there is a firm date. hopefully we don't have to wait until nov 3, but we very well may (i think the relevant possibility is biden dying or withdrawing and clinton being chosen to replace him).
if it trades up to 98-99 cents before october, i'll probably cash out and invest it elsewhere.
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what is everybody bet units on these things?
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I am now a Level 3 Diviner.
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you can buy republicans will win ny for 92 cents right now.
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you can buy republicans will win ny for 92 cents right now.
republicans win KS for 91 cents!
I cashed out like $300 so I wouldn't do dumb bets, but I think Trump at 45 cents in Florida is a steal.
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you can buy republicans will win ny for 92 cents right now.
republicans win KS for 91 cents!
I cashed out like $300 so I wouldn't do dumb bets, but I think Trump at 45 cents in Florida is a steal.
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i don't know about a steal, because biden probably has a better than 55% chance to win, but the lack of more than a couple of cents spread between national and florida %s is pretty ridiculous.
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lol.
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my betting rooting interests have pretty completely overwhelmed my political rooting interests by this point. they're mostly aligned, though.
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I bet I could make thousands on this, but I'm too honorable to do so.
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What if you were to tell someone exactly how you could make that money instead
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And in exchange that person mailed you some hard to find breakfast cereal
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I bet I could make thousands on this, but I'm too honorable to do so.
it's kinda god's own work, when you think about it.
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https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1315313426374299650
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https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1315313426374299650
I'm now starting to get a lot of mail from Trump and the RNC strongly encouraging early voting. Next time I get one, probably Tuesday, I'll take a pic.
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this may be as good as political gambling ever gets. i don't know if we'll ever see a politician with such a large cult-like following among stupid people ever again.
https://twitter.com/rainbow_jeremy_/status/1319498522828353536
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I signed up for this thing and then didn’t do anything. Is Biden AZ the best money on the board iyo sys?
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I realize there’s not a lot left after the vig but lmao. Take the easy ones.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201023/486ddce2eb2230404269d7819c8af2ec.jpg)
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Like, there is zero chance he wins Wisconsin. That’s only one state but it’s 100% a lock.
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Ok, I’ve found a better one
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201023/3f8bc3183c2de7211dd4974772d3f34c.jpg)
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My biden-won’t-win stock has rebounded 50%. :ohno:
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take advantage by selling and buying into the winning side.
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Alright, I’m in on Trump losing a state he won at $0.82, Dems winning Wisconsin at $0.69 and Pubs winning Ohio at $0.69
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Alright, I’m in on Trump losing a state he won at $0.82, Dems winning Wisconsin at $0.69 and Pubs winning Ohio at $0.69
i hold shares in the first two of those.
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The third is one I’d be happy to lose
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personally, i'd rather win the bet.
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$0.69 doesn't seem that lucrative for the pubs winning Ohio. Polling makes it look a lot closer to 50/50 than 70/30.
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Better money to be made at your favorite horse track.
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Better money to be made at your favorite horse track.
Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
I mean, some of this stuff is essentially a guaranteed winner. It’s not paying 10x but a 95% chance at a 30% return in 10 days is pretty good. You have $10k sitting in a money market fund you may as well turn that into $13k real quick imo (the math in this post has not been reviewed for 100% accuracy but basically you get what I’m saying).
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sorry, sd, didn't see your post earlier. just plain vanilla biden national is the best bet, imo. there are 6 different markets for that. biden win the popular vote is super low risk.
states, imo are florida, mn, mi, penn and wisconsin in no particular order. other states are good too, but those are the best.
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How much money can be made predicting Kansas votes trump?
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How much money can be made predicting Kansas votes trump?
you can buy ks trump shares for 92 cents.
all of the trump shares are overpriced, even the red state shares. if you want a safe state bet, you can get biden in colorado for 89 cents.
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Don’t I have to find an idiot to sell it to for 93 cents or more before Election Day?
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I'd bet that Biden wins Kansas, but am not interested enough to sign up.
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Don’t I have to find an idiot to sell it to for 93 cents or more before Election Day?
you can sell your shares from 1-99 cents. if you hold until resolution, the share will settle for either 0 or 100 cents.
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Oh wow what is the max amount per bet?
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Oh wow what is the max amount per bet?
$850, but most markets have two mirror markets, so really $1700 for most.
fees are 5% to put money in and 10% of profits.
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I picked up FL for biden today.
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I got my hillary-won't-run money! Now to find something to blow this last $10 on.
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BidenVoter yard sign?
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Markets moving towards Trump in most of the swing states...
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Markets moving towards Trump in most of the swing states...
it's amazing. the money wants to be liberated.
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people on twitter were saying the stupid website would crash on election day. i should have prepared for that better.
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Probably for the best, keep you from losing your money.
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Probably for the best, keep you from losing your money.
i don't think that will be the effect.
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(https://media.tenor.com/images/0f253acb19c8afd3e7204540704d434e/tenor.gif)
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If this thing was working, I’d probably have a good opportunity to sell my Biden-won’t-win stock for a gain, huh?
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If this thing was working, I’d probably have a good opportunity to sell my Biden-won’t-win stock for a gain, huh?
i wish i was able to log on and find out.
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I’m in! Looks like about a 50% gain, but site’s going too slow to make a trade.
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I’m in! Looks like about a 50% gain, but site’s going too slow to make a trade.
Damn, this sucks.
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Got in and sold half my shares.
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Man, imagine the stacks of cash you could’ve gotten when some of the betting markets went Biden +600’ish last night.
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Man, imagine the stacks of cash you could’ve gotten when some of the betting markets went Biden +600’ish last night.
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I sold another half of my half while asleep at a price I didn’t think it could possibly get to.
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Bought all my Biden-won’t-win back for like nothing just in case there’s another run of it appearing bad or actually being bad.
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So, wtf is going on with all these states still being between $0.80-0.90 cents for Biden to win? Free money?
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Bought all my Biden-won’t-win back for like nothing just in case there’s another run of it appearing bad or actually being bad.
my Trump won't win shares are just sitting there waiting.
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there's a lot of free money just sitting there, with no one interested in picking it up. my theory is that most participants still have their money locked up in markets that haven't liquidated yet and the universe of people that are interested in betting on elections that didn't already go in before the election is very small.
also, perhaps, some uncertainty of how long the the markets will stay open due to recounts and such.
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I sold everything and ended up with a 16% gain from almost nothing but buying biden-won't-win low and selling high. What are your best bets for me to put my liquid into, sys?
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i'm not sure which markets are open but take your pick of biden national or any of the states except arizona. looks like you can get 80 cents in the texas primary winner elected president market, which is the same thing as biden v trump.
there is probably better money available in some of the margin markets, but mostly a little more risky.
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How about GA runoff? Are there any juicy numbers?
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How about GA runoff? Are there any juicy numbers?
looks like 65 cents for loeffler and 74 cents for perdue at the moment.
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I just can't get into election and sports betting. I'm more into payouts like these. Also hit a P4. $52 investment. $2278 payout.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201110/3fd98590b6a820e6c2cf7ab96b4db5a4.jpg)
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I just can't get into election and sports betting. I'm more into payouts like these. Also hit a P4. $52 investment. $2278 payout.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201110/3fd98590b6a820e6c2cf7ab96b4db5a4.jpg)
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can you tell me more about horse handicapping? My father-in-law is in to it a bit and I have been to an OTB with him a few times and watched him in Vegas a few times and I can't understand it much at all.
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How about GA runoff? Are there any juicy numbers?
looks like 65 cents for loeffler
FWIW, there were like 10 candidates on that ballot, I believe equal numbers liberals and conservatives and the liberal candidates received more votes, as of like Thursday night anyway.
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Yeah, Loeffler winning wouldn't be shocking by any means, but I think she will lose.
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I just can't get into election and sports betting. I'm more into payouts like these. Also hit a P4. $52 investment. $2278 payout.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201110/3fd98590b6a820e6c2cf7ab96b4db5a4.jpg)
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can you tell me more about horse handicapping? My father-in-law is in to it a bit and I have been to an OTB with him a few times and watched him in Vegas a few times and I can't understand it much at all.
Way too much for a blog post. If you want to learn, read Handicapping 101 by Brad Free or one of Andrew Beyer's books. After you grasp reading past performances (horse racing programs), grab the Exotic Betting by Steven Crist. Teaches you how to structure tickets like the Pick 4 or superfecta.
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looks like you can get 80 cents in the texas primary winner elected president market, which is the same thing as biden v trump.
I did this. :thumbs:
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i'm not sure which markets are open but take your pick of biden national or any of the states except arizona. looks like you can get 80 cents in the texas primary winner elected president market, which is the same thing as biden v trump.
there is probably better money available in some of the margin markets, but mostly a little more risky.
add the arizona markets to the list of markets where the difference between the current price and 100 cents is free money.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314
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Has anyone made any money on this yet? Anyone plan to place any bets at this point?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1331966432335302658
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Has anyone made any money on this yet? Anyone plan to place any bets at this point?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1331966432335302658
Part of it is the fee structure that makes these seem off. At 10% of profit, then 5% withdrawal fee, a correct bet on 90c but would only net you 4.2c return. Any price higher than 95 cents and you lose money on a win (assuming you deposit and withdraw just on that race).
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part of it is due to the fees, but i think a bigger part for these post trump prices are the limits on trading and the limited number of traders. the number of traders is limited for each market, so a lot of these markets are closed to new investors. when you have no one new who can trade on one side and traders holding losing tickets preferring to wait for resolution rather than sell at a loss on the other - the price isn't going to move much.
that can't be the whole story, however, because there are plenty of markets open that also have crazy pricing. so i think another aspect is that predictit just hasn't resolved most trump markets yet, so traders still have all their money tied up in those markets. i think there is probably a limited number of people that are both interested in betting on politics over the internet but who didn't already put their money down before the election.
all that said, if anyone here still wants to put down money, they could easily put in like 10-20k in markets that are still open and would return 10-11% before fees. can pick up miles/points on the spend too. i recommend it.
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Has anyone made any money on this yet? Anyone plan to place any bets at this point?
i've been paid out on a handful of bets (and had most losing bets resolved). still have a ton of money tied up and have put new money in post-election as well.
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dudes need to pay out some markets. this is getting stupid.
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This site is a joke
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i think they'll pay out some markets tonight/tomorrow, but who knows.
pretty amazing magabrain for the electors to actually vote, their votes be covered in the news and trump's price to go up.
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Paid me out on all but WI and TX Dem primary winner elected president last night
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Popular vote/Electoral Vote winner paid out but not "winner."
:dubious:
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did you guys put all your money into some kind of maga scam
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I'm pretty sure it's scamming the magas who keep throwing money in on Trump
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I'm pretty sure it's scamming the magas who keep throwing money in on Trump
yes, that's right.
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I rolled all mine over into TX dem primary winner elected president at 96c this morning
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Just waiting on Trump didn't win.
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https://twitter.com/MostCrucified/status/1338853927668867073?s=20
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"Antifer"
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1339690202315563011
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TX primary winner has settled.
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I got my check from these people today.
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i still have about three quarters of my money at risk, which is probably dumb, but i'm an addict now.
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I liquidated and made a handsome 10% profit.
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good day today.
no more elections till forever. :cry:
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https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1366176169142358018
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Jesus Christ. Save us Ben.
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:cry:
https://twitter.com/RyanRadia/status/1555358823875022851
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There are better options now. Kalshi is one.
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There are better options now. Kalshi is one.
it doesn't seem to have any elections?