Author Topic: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)  (Read 7198 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« on: April 28, 2020, 10:13:57 PM »
sys, I now have some cash in play!

Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44



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« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 01:37:34 PM by Kat Kid »

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2020, 11:01:01 PM »
sys, I now have some cash in play!

Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44

 :party:

i hold biden nominee and biden president too.  the nominee number is ridiculous, almost free money but it seems so easy that i get nervous about reade or the virus sneaking in and rough ridin' things up before the convention (note: iirc, i actually paid a few cents more for trump no instead of biden yes as virus/reade protection, which was probably stupid).

when is the ks election?  there aren't many interesting senate and congressional races active now, kobach no is tempting when there's not much action anywhere else.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2020, 11:32:54 PM »
I think some of the Q flavored indictment markets might be good to get in.

I blew through my initial deposit pretty quick buying positions and will definitely put more in tomorrow.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 11:34:56 PM »
Oh Popular vote wins electoral college is way undervalued, you should buy that.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2020, 11:39:07 PM »
I need to read up a bit more, but I might like a couple of the world markets.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 11:44:59 PM »
Oh Popular vote wins electoral college is way undervalued, you should buy that.

that's a good find.  nice backdoor way to play the election.


i try to stick to just betting the elections.  i'm sure there are some good bets among the other stuff, but i don't know how to go about researching them.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2020, 11:47:50 PM »
sys, I now have some cash in play!

Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44

 :party:

i hold biden nominee and biden president too.  the nominee number is ridiculous, almost free money but it seems so easy that i get nervous about reade or the virus sneaking in and rough ridin' things up before the convention (note: iirc, i actually paid a few cents more for trump no instead of biden yes as virus/reade protection, which was probably stupid).

when is the ks election?  there aren't many interesting senate and congressional races active now, kobach no is tempting when there's not much action anywhere else.

early voting starts July 15, Aug 4 is "primary day" but who knows?

Wagle is still in the race and with the COVID voting uncertainty I maybe shouldn't be so cocky, but hard to imagine Kobach has as much goodwill after that dreadful showing in the governor's race. Plus, he barely won the primary last time against someone much less popular than Marshall still makes this a pretty easy buy.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2020, 11:48:55 PM »
Oh Popular vote wins electoral college is way undervalued, you should buy that.

that's a good find.  nice backdoor way to play the election.


i try to stick to just betting the elections.  i'm sure there are some good bets among the other stuff, but i don't know how to go about researching them.

I get very rough ridin' nervous clicking because of the way things are phrased when they have the 4 way betting, but I think I will get used to it.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2020, 12:11:48 AM »
i've definitely made bets where i didn't fully understand everything i was betting on.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Trim

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2020, 12:14:29 AM »
Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2020, 12:23:12 AM »
Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.

i already pre-donated a lot of my winnings to beto, but what's left will go to a couple of congressional races and the fresno mayoral race.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2020, 07:38:59 AM »
Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.

Excuse me, this is a “market.”

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2020, 07:46:07 AM »
Remember to make matching donations on all your bets.

Excuse me, this is a “market.”

 :lol: :lol: :lol:

I love "marketing"!!  Where can I get some action? 

Even though this one simple vice may send me straight to hell, I still wanna play.

 :peek:
bears are fast...

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2020, 08:23:30 AM »
I can’t in good conscience provide you with a link, but if you are strongly motivated I know you will find your way there. Stay on the straight and narrow friend.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2020, 08:42:59 AM »
I can’t in good conscience provide you with a link, but if you are strongly motivated I know you will find your way there. Stay on the straight and narrow friend.

 :shakesfist: :shakesfist: :shakesfist:
bears are fast...

Offline michigancat

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2020, 10:57:01 AM »
lol

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2020, 12:13:26 PM »
justwin, i see you lurking.  come on in!

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2020, 12:35:04 PM »
I think some of the Q flavored indictment markets might be good to get in.

I blew through my initial deposit pretty quick buying positions and will definitely put more in tomorrow.

I might have done some research and found this top secret marketing portal...

Can confirm some of the indictment markets look super juicy!

bears are fast...

Offline Justwin

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2020, 12:56:18 PM »
justwin, i see you lurking.  come on in!

The title of the thread is pretty exclusive.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2020, 12:59:25 PM »
justwin, i see you lurking.  come on in!

The title of the thread is pretty exclusive.

Once I crashed the party, the exclusivity of this club took a YUGE hit.

bears are fast...

Offline Justwin

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2020, 01:15:56 PM »
sys, I now have some cash in play!

Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44

I think the Kobach bet is good value.  I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee.  I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight.  I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.

The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%.  I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee.  The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2020, 01:39:37 PM »
sys, I now have some cash in play!

Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44

I think the Kobach bet is good value.  I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee.  I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight.  I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.

The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%.  I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee.  The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.

best values:
1) biden for dem nom
2) electoral winner is popular vote winner
3) Kobach NO
4) Biden for prez

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2020, 06:42:24 PM »
clinton no is selling for 92 cents right now.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys and KK talk)
« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2020, 11:11:21 PM »
sys, I now have some cash in play!

Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44

I think the Kobach bet is good value.  I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee.  I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight.  I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.

The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%.  I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee.  The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.

best values:
1) biden for dem nom
2) electoral winner is popular vote winner
3) Kobach NO
4) Biden for prez

It's totally a gut feeling, but I can't see how they actually run sleepy joe unless they really think they can rig the election and win with HRC as VP candidate to push her in as president.

I'm gonna load an account and buy a position on all three or four yes's on indictments while the court cases are heating up as they're anywhere from about 20-1 to 8-1.  So, just need one to hit to cover all four positions.

Also, pushing out the DNC convention makes it more likely to slip somebody else in in place of Sleepy Joe... HRC maybe?  Seems like a lot of value on Biden "no" and HRC "yes".   HRC at almost 8:1 just to run is insane value, imho.  Am I correct that she could avoid a potential indictment just by throwing her hat in the ring?

bears are fast...

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2020, 11:21:12 PM »
I'm pretty sure dax still thinks Hillary will be the nominee as well, you should talk with him.
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite