Author Topic: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)  (Read 10777 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #150 on: November 11, 2020, 09:52:29 PM »
i'm not sure which markets are open but take your pick of biden national or any of the states except arizona.  looks like you can get 80 cents in the texas primary winner elected president market, which is the same thing as biden v trump.

there is probably better money available in some of the margin markets, but mostly a little more risky.

add the arizona markets to the list of markets where the difference between the current price and 100 cents is free money.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline chum1

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21912
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #151 on: November 26, 2020, 10:59:35 AM »
Has anyone made any money on this yet? Anyone plan to place any bets at this point?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1331966432335302658

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19132
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #152 on: November 26, 2020, 12:01:15 PM »
Has anyone made any money on this yet? Anyone plan to place any bets at this point?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1331966432335302658
Part of it is the fee structure that makes these seem off. At 10% of profit, then 5% withdrawal fee, a correct bet on 90c but would only net you 4.2c return. Any price higher than 95 cents and you lose money on a win (assuming you deposit and withdraw just on that race).
:adios:

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #153 on: November 26, 2020, 03:18:24 PM »
part of it is due to the fees, but i think a bigger part for these post trump prices are the limits on trading and the limited number of traders.  the number of traders is limited for each market, so a lot of these markets are closed to new investors.  when you have no one new who can trade on one side and traders holding losing tickets preferring to wait for resolution rather than sell at a loss on the other - the price isn't going to move much.

that can't be the whole story, however, because there are plenty of markets open that also have crazy pricing.  so i think another aspect is that predictit just hasn't resolved most trump markets yet, so traders still have all their money tied up in those markets.  i think there is probably a limited number of people that are both interested in betting on politics over the internet but who didn't already put their money down before the election.


all that said, if anyone here still wants to put down money, they could easily put in like 10-20k in markets that are still open and would return 10-11% before fees.  can pick up miles/points on the spend too.  i recommend it.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #154 on: November 26, 2020, 03:19:58 PM »
Has anyone made any money on this yet? Anyone plan to place any bets at this point?

i've been paid out on a handful of bets (and had most losing bets resolved).  still have a ton of money tied up and have put new money in post-election as well.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #155 on: December 09, 2020, 01:25:37 PM »
dudes need to pay out some markets.  this is getting stupid.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19132
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #156 on: December 14, 2020, 09:46:19 PM »
This site is a joke
:adios:

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #157 on: December 14, 2020, 10:58:41 PM »
i think they'll pay out some markets tonight/tomorrow, but who knows.


pretty amazing magabrain for the electors to actually vote, their votes be covered in the news and trump's price to go up.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19132
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #158 on: December 15, 2020, 07:31:20 AM »
Paid me out on all but WI and TX Dem primary winner elected president last night
:adios:

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20490
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #159 on: December 15, 2020, 08:37:59 AM »
Popular vote/Electoral Vote winner paid out but not "winner."

 :dubious:

Online michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 53771
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #160 on: December 15, 2020, 09:19:32 AM »
did you guys put all your money into some kind of maga scam

Offline ChiComCat

  • Chawbacon
  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 17576
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #161 on: December 15, 2020, 09:25:13 AM »
I'm pretty sure it's scamming the magas who keep throwing money in on Trump

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20490
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #162 on: December 15, 2020, 09:33:35 AM »
I'm pretty sure it's scamming the magas who keep throwing money in on Trump

yes, that's right.

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19132
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #163 on: December 15, 2020, 09:38:48 AM »
I rolled all mine over into TX dem primary winner elected president at 96c this morning
:adios:

Online Phil Titola

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 15293
  • He took it out!
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #164 on: December 15, 2020, 11:12:34 AM »
Just waiting on Trump didn't win. 

Offline Institutional Control

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 14953
    • View Profile

Offline MakeItRain

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 44880
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #166 on: December 15, 2020, 11:11:39 PM »
"Antifer"

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Trim

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 41981
  • Pfizer PLUS Moderna and now Pfizer Bivalent
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #168 on: December 18, 2020, 08:54:20 AM »
TX primary winner has settled.

Offline Trim

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 41981
  • Pfizer PLUS Moderna and now Pfizer Bivalent
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #169 on: December 29, 2020, 03:50:28 PM »
I got my check from these people today.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #170 on: December 29, 2020, 03:54:22 PM »
i still have about three quarters of my money at risk, which is probably dumb, but i'm an addict now.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Online Phil Titola

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 15293
  • He took it out!
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #171 on: December 29, 2020, 04:10:38 PM »
I liquidated and made a handsome 10% profit.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40504
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #172 on: January 06, 2021, 12:05:18 AM »
good day today.


no more elections till forever.   :cry:
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline chum1

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21912
    • View Profile

Online steve dave

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 85298
  • Romantic Fist Attachment
    • View Profile
Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #174 on: February 28, 2021, 09:12:06 PM »
Jesus Christ. Save us Ben.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk