sys, I now have some cash in play!
Kobach will win Republican nom for Senate NO $.43
Biden dem nominee YES $.81
2020 President Biden $.44
I think the Kobach bet is good value. I'd say there is a less than 50% chance he is the nominee. I think the letter the GOP Chairman sent highlights the uphill battle Kobach is going to have to fight. I don't think the letter was appropriate, but I think it speaks to how a lot of Republicans in Kansas have Kobach fatigue.
The Biden nominee price is far too low. There is definitely a non-zero chance he is not the nominee, but much less than 20%. I'd say it is more like 95% chance he is the nominee. The Biden for president price might be a little low, but pretty close to where it should be.
best values:
1) biden for dem nom
2) electoral winner is popular vote winner
3) Kobach NO
4) Biden for prez
It's totally a gut feeling, but I can't see how they actually run sleepy joe unless they really think they can rig the election and win with HRC as VP candidate to push her in as president.
I'm gonna load an account and buy a position on all three or four yes's on indictments while the court cases are heating up as they're anywhere from about 20-1 to 8-1. So, just need one to hit to cover all four positions.
Also, pushing out the DNC convention makes it more likely to slip somebody else in in place of Sleepy Joe... HRC maybe? Seems like a lot of value on Biden "no" and HRC "yes". HRC at almost 8:1 just to run is insane value, imho. Am I correct that she could avoid a potential indictment just by throwing her hat in the ring?