Author Topic: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)  (Read 7197 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #50 on: August 04, 2020, 04:10:37 PM »
What are your latest positions?

I’m letting the no Kobach position close today, going to have my Biden as dem nominee cash. May just withdraw.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #51 on: August 04, 2020, 04:57:17 PM »
i have small, for-entertainment-purposes only bets on kobach no and watkins yes.  other than those, i have four different bets on the dem nomination (not including a bunch of non-viable positions) and 16 different bets on the presidential election.  and one small bet still outstanding from the texas primary (us house).
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Trim

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #52 on: August 04, 2020, 05:03:45 PM »
It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.

Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix?  Or some amount that follows that ratio?

Offline Pete

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #53 on: August 04, 2020, 05:07:28 PM »
It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.

Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix?  Or some amount that follows that ratio?

By win, do you mean inaugurated?

Offline Trim

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #54 on: August 04, 2020, 05:09:54 PM »
It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.

Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix?  Or some amount that follows that ratio?

By win, do you mean inaugurated?

Yeah, like whichever one the end result president is.  We have to factor in america's stupidity as well as any shady crap anyone does before and after election day.  But it's the former that has me convinced trump will win until I'm proven wrong. 

Offline Pete

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #55 on: August 04, 2020, 05:12:45 PM »
It says Biden 60c, Trump 41c currently.

Anyone want to put up $60 against my $41 that Trump wins and cut predictit out of the mix?  Or some amount that follows that ratio?

By win, do you mean inaugurated?

Yeah, like whichever one the end result president is.  We have to factor in america's stupidity as well as any shady crap anyone does before and after election day.  But it's the former that has me convinced trump will win until I'm proven wrong.

Oh I agree, that's why I wanted to clarify "win."  Also, I will NOT take that bet.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #56 on: August 04, 2020, 09:06:17 PM »
Those odds aren’t great. I bought Biden under 50.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #57 on: August 04, 2020, 09:45:33 PM »
Those odds aren’t great. I bought Biden under 50.

biden is still a good deal.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Trim

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #58 on: August 04, 2020, 10:11:22 PM »
Sys, set the fair ratio for a straight trump vs biden bet between gE’rs.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #59 on: August 04, 2020, 10:18:22 PM »
90% biden.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Trim

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #60 on: August 04, 2020, 10:28:31 PM »
Ok, who wants to take biden and put up a multiple of $90 against my multiple of $10 on trump.

I’ll also consider less lopsided odds.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #61 on: August 05, 2020, 12:08:49 PM »
will the republican win california is selling for 94 cents, which is insane.  if you already have money in predictit, it's a nobrainer to pick up your 5.4 cents over three months.  if you have to put new money in, it may or may not be worth your time and your money's time.

"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #62 on: August 05, 2020, 01:22:09 PM »
will the republican win california is selling for 94 cents, which is insane.  if you already have money in predictit, it's a nobrainer to pick up your 5.4 cents over three months.  if you have to put new money in, it may or may not be worth your time and your money's time.
Yeah that is a good idea

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #63 on: August 05, 2020, 04:16:11 PM »
The Alabama Senate race is also free money.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2020, 04:52:54 PM »
The Alabama Senate race is also free money.

yeah, good find.  i like bets that both act as a hedge on betting biden but also should pay out even if biden wins like that one.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Trim

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #65 on: August 05, 2020, 11:01:37 PM »
I went ahead and signed up for this to bet on trump and against biden.

Online Phil Titola

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #66 on: August 06, 2020, 11:14:34 AM »
will the republican win california is selling for 94 cents, which is insane.  if you already have money in predictit, it's a nobrainer to pick up your 5.4 cents over three months.  if you have to put new money in, it may or may not be worth your time and your money's time.

So looking at this and trying to understand.  So buy it at 94 cents now and as it gets closer that price will go up and people will be buying at 99 which would be the max?  After the event happens what amount is paid out the the shareholders?  the whole dollar?

NM I found the answer, yes you get a dollar when the event closes if right.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #67 on: August 07, 2020, 01:28:05 PM »
will the dem nominee be a woman - no is selling for 95 cents, which means you can put new money in on that and pay off the fees in under 2 weeks and then have that money free and clear for the rest of the election season.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #68 on: August 07, 2020, 01:39:20 PM »
actually, you can still get biden wins dem nomination for 94 cents (lol), so that's an even better deal if you're confident he can survive another couple of weeks.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #70 on: August 10, 2020, 10:39:52 AM »
I think it's going to be Susan Rice.

Offline Cire

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #71 on: August 10, 2020, 10:52:00 AM »
I think it's going to be Susan Rice.
To own the pubs


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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #72 on: August 10, 2020, 10:56:10 AM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511277-willie-brown-kamala-harris-should-politely-decline-any-offer-to-be-bidens

this is weird as hell. makes me think its not kamala!

I had been lulled into the don't overthink it, it's Harris.

I assume they still get along, but maybe not. Only other explanation I can think of other than him helping spin her not getting picked.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #73 on: August 10, 2020, 12:38:12 PM »
i wouldn't assume that harris knows or cares that brown is still alive.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline michigancat

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #74 on: August 10, 2020, 12:45:01 PM »
i wouldn't assume that harris knows or cares that brown is still alive.

I'd assume you're wrong, he's still a fairly major voice in SF politics. And I didn't even know this until I read that article.

Quote
Brown, who served as mayor from 1996 to 2004, has said he briefly dated Harris while she was an Alameda County, Calif., deputy district attorney.

:surprised: