Author Topic: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)  (Read 7199 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #25 on: April 30, 2020, 11:35:39 PM »
Hillary is not coming anywhere near that White House.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #26 on: April 30, 2020, 11:42:50 PM »
Hmmmm...  You've got me thinking, KK.

Watching Biden try to form a complete sentence is painful.  As such it's just hard to imagine that's the pony they're gonna put in the Derby.
bears are fast...

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #27 on: April 30, 2020, 11:55:15 PM »
How do payouts work on this thing?

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2020, 05:49:13 AM »
How do payouts work on this thing?

You pay 5% withdrawal fee and a 10% fee on winnings, so you need to take that in to consideration.

I haven’t cashed out yet, but it is run by an academic institution so it isn’t going to be sketchy I don’t think.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2020, 06:19:46 AM »
yeah, cashing out is fine.  no problems.  the commissions are very high and they can be very slow to settle sometimes (not their fault, when states take forever to finalize votes).  otherwise straightforward.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2020, 06:37:15 AM »
Biden as nominee now down under $.80, I just bought more YES

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2020, 06:47:37 AM »
God some of these markets are so dumb.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2020, 07:23:14 AM »
God some of these markets are so dumb.

it's been weird for so long i'm starting to doubt myself.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2020, 07:44:10 AM »
God some of these markets are so dumb.

it's been weird for so long i'm starting to doubt myself.

lot of people willing to pay good money to be wrong

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2020, 08:30:52 AM »
I don’t follow who I’d be betting/trading with and when I’d win/lose.

I’m confident america will eff up and trump will win the election somehow. How would my wager on that work?  The thing currently says trump 50 cents, biden 43.

Offline steve dave

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Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2020, 08:33:21 AM »
You bet Trump 50. Then if he wins you win like 90 cents for every dollar you bet (because he’s even money). Then you pay 5% to withdraw all of it. They get you for 15% of every dollar essentially. The math won’t be 100% there but you get the idea.


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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #36 on: May 01, 2020, 08:38:25 AM »
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #37 on: May 01, 2020, 08:45:36 AM »
Quote
What are your fees?

Any time you sell a shares for a higher price than you paid, we charge a fee of 10 percent of your profit. There is no fee if you sell your shares at the same price that you paid or at a lower price.

There is no charge to open a PredictIt account or to deposit funds.

PredictIt charges a 5 percent fee to process withdrawals.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2020, 08:49:28 AM »
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.
bears are fast...

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #39 on: May 01, 2020, 08:58:01 AM »
Trump Wins
      50c 
+    50c
-__10c_fee (50c x .10 = .05)___
      95c
-      5c cashout fee
___________
      90c  = 40c profit per share

fixed
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 10:06:43 AM by Kat Kid »

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #40 on: May 01, 2020, 09:01:09 AM »
on a 90+% bet they are taking 10% of the profit not 10c, but if you only trade on markets with less than a 5c spread you will lose money on cash out.

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #41 on: May 01, 2020, 09:06:26 AM »
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.


Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?

That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #42 on: May 01, 2020, 09:20:50 AM »
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.


Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?

That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.

you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.

Offline Justwin

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #43 on: May 01, 2020, 09:55:49 AM »
Trump Wins
      50c 
+    50c
-__10c_fee___
      90c
-      5c cashout fee
___________
      85c  = 35c profit per share

My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:

Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)

Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)

This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.

Offline Justwin

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #44 on: May 01, 2020, 09:57:58 AM »
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.


Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?

That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.

you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.

An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously.  This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market.  Obviously, if my wife and I both have accounts (or if you create two separate accounts), we could get around this rule.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #45 on: May 01, 2020, 10:05:29 AM »
Trump Wins
      50c 
+    50c
-__10c_fee___
      90c
-      5c cashout fee
___________
      85c  = 35c profit per share

My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:

Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)

Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)

This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.

ah yeah you are right I went back and fixed it after I looked

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #46 on: May 01, 2020, 10:41:29 AM »
Trump Wins
      50c 
+    50c
-__10c_fee___
      90c
-      5c cashout fee
___________
      85c  = 35c profit per share

My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:

Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)

Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)

This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.

ah yeah you are right I went back and fixed it after I looked

That's not bad... in @Trim's example comparing it to standard vegas vig of -110 it really comes out to about -111 or -112 in this scenario.  Without running a bunch of math, those numbers could swing a few points depending on "odds", right. 

I mean if you bought HRC to be indicted by 06/30/2020 at 6 cents and it hits, then you're looking at 94 cents profit but the position paid almost 20:1...

Thanks for sharing this marketing scheme, KK...  :gocho:
bears are fast...

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #47 on: May 01, 2020, 11:04:41 AM »
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.


Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?

That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.

you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.

An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously.  This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market.  Obviously, if my wife and I both have accounts (or if you create two separate accounts), we could get around this rule.

you could always trade in and out of positions before it closes.

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #48 on: May 01, 2020, 11:08:36 AM »
An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously.  This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market.

there are lots of creative ways to hedge.  as an example, i bet big on all of the younger moderate candidates winning the nomination, but i hedged by betting an offsetting amount that biden would win it.

other common and easy hedges are to pair the national election with some correlated state election or to pair the presidential election in some state with a senate, gubernatorial or even congressional race in that state.

it's nice because you can sometimes find hedges where there are decent chances you win both your bet and your hedge.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #49 on: August 04, 2020, 09:32:02 AM »
feel like i'm turning a very unwise corner in viewing my bets as the best place to earn a risk-adjusted return instead of as a fun way to make a little money off of my otherwise useless interest in politics.

no going back though.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."