damn, trump won by 9 points last time. MIR may actually have a vote worth a crap.
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1321988620207751169
He's behind here.
MIR do you think this has much of an impact? Or no due to everyone who votes early this year?
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928315049/polling-places-are-closing-due-to-covid-19-it-could-tip-races-in-1-swing-state
Yes, it will have an impact. So all four places mentioned in that article, Council Bluffs, Fort Dodge, Linn County, and Waterloo (Blackhawk County) are places that lean blue. The biggest hit will be in Linn County, it's the second most populous county in the state and he got trounced there in '16. Those other three places are small enough that they will be offset by what's probably going to be a lower turnout rurally, where like everywhere else in the plains and midwest, are filled with older people less likely to mail in ballots and are getting hammered by this pandemic.
His issue in Iowa will be in the Des Moines suburbs, which are growing very fast and the demographics are changing. Unlike in the rust belt states, I don't think he turned a lot of Obama voters, a lot of those went third party, which there were three very strong third party candidates four years ago, not so much this year. The third party vote in '16 was 8% in '12 it's less than 2%. The libertarians, independent candidate, and the greens all ran ads here in '16, none this year, I can't even find polling data for the third parties this year which leads me to believe that percentage will be back to 2% or less.
Another giant advantage he had in '16 that will be eliminated will be the turnout. The Republican turnout in '16 was higher than it had been in generations, it was 20% higher than it was in '12. However, democratic and independent turnout was way down, I believe it was 5 percent for the dems and 7 percent for independents.
Final thing to note is that polling in Iowa has historically been very accurate, including in '16. Trump did over perform his polling but only slightly. The polling numbers have been consistent here, the only reason why the nerds are calling this state a toss up is because if the polling is right, it will indicate a 15 point flip which for what they do seems almost improbable, but this isn't Georgia or Texas, it's a purpleish to light blue state. Biden will win by 5 points, book it.