Author Topic: 2020 General Election Thread  (Read 129088 times)

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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1475 on: October 30, 2020, 12:10:28 AM »
The early vote turnout is so high that I think difficulty voting on election day probably actually favors the democrats. You have to think that most of those who haven't already voted are likely voting Trump.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1476 on: October 30, 2020, 12:42:54 AM »
damn, trump won by 9 points last time. MIR may actually have a vote worth a crap.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1321988620207751169

He's behind here.

MIR do you think this has much of an impact?  Or no due to everyone who votes early this year?
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928315049/polling-places-are-closing-due-to-covid-19-it-could-tip-races-in-1-swing-state

Yes, it will have an impact. So all four places mentioned in that article, Council Bluffs, Fort Dodge, Linn County, and Waterloo (Blackhawk County) are places that lean blue. The biggest hit will be in Linn County, it's the second most populous county in the state and he got trounced there in '16. Those other three places are small enough that they will be offset by what's probably going to be a lower turnout rurally, where like everywhere else in the plains and midwest, are filled with older people less likely to mail in ballots and are getting hammered by this pandemic.

His issue in Iowa will be in the Des Moines suburbs, which are growing very fast and the demographics are changing. Unlike in the rust belt states, I don't think he turned a lot of Obama voters, a lot of those went third party, which there were three very strong third party candidates four years ago, not so much this year. The third party vote in '16 was 8% in '12 it's less than 2%. The libertarians, independent candidate, and the greens all ran ads here in '16, none this year, I can't even find polling data for the third parties this year which leads me to believe that percentage will be back to 2% or less.

Another giant advantage he had in '16 that will be eliminated will be the turnout. The Republican turnout in '16 was higher than it had been in generations, it was 20% higher than it was in '12. However, democratic and independent turnout was way down, I believe it was 5 percent for the dems and 7 percent for independents.

Final thing to note is that polling in Iowa has historically been very accurate, including in '16. Trump did over perform his polling but only slightly. The polling numbers have been consistent here, the only reason why the nerds are calling this state a toss up is because if the polling is right, it will indicate a 15 point flip which for what they do seems almost improbable, but this isn't Georgia or Texas, it's a purpleish to light blue state. Biden will win by 5 points, book it.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1477 on: October 30, 2020, 12:49:53 AM »
The early vote turnout is so high that I think difficulty voting on election day probably actually favors the democrats. You have to think that most of those who haven't already voted are likely voting Trump.

No, I don't think so. As of last week the Secretary of State expected to get 750,000 to 800,000 ballots early that will account for 50% of the total vote. As I outlined in the long post, those areas discussed in the article, especially Cedar Rapids, are reliably democratic.

Offline Cire

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1478 on: October 30, 2020, 06:40:10 AM »
Missed this but seems important.

Pennsylvania is a crap show for the Mail ins which is overwhelmingly dem

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/28/928890290/supreme-court-allows-ballot-extensions-in-pennsylvania-north-carolina-for-now 


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Offline 8manpick

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1479 on: October 30, 2020, 07:57:34 AM »
Re: Iowa and late rallies — is there any evidence that late in person rallies help drive turnout for a candidate? Ads I understand, casual Jack sees the ads during the CyHawk showdown or battle or whatever, and decides he is actually going to vote.

I assume that the number of people attending a Trump (or Biden) rally at the end of October who are undecided or maybe not voting is close to zero. Am I wrong?
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Offline star seed 7

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1480 on: October 30, 2020, 08:32:36 AM »
I think it's mostly about pushing turnout and they also get a lot of people registered to vote at those events
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1481 on: October 30, 2020, 08:44:11 AM »
You can register to vote within a week of the election?

Rallies and TV ads seem so wasteful

Offline 8manpick

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1482 on: October 30, 2020, 09:31:19 AM »
You can register to vote within a week of the election?

Rallies and TV ads seem so wasteful
I’m going to register to vote and vote this afternoon!
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Offline MadCat

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1483 on: October 30, 2020, 09:35:34 AM »
I voted this morning!  :Woohoo:

Offline michigancat

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1484 on: October 30, 2020, 09:49:28 AM »
You can register to vote within a week of the election?

California has election day registration. I'm guessing lots of other states who think it's a good thing for people vote do too.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1485 on: October 30, 2020, 10:09:34 AM »
Oh crap lol
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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1486 on: October 30, 2020, 11:14:08 AM »
You can register to vote within a week of the election?

California has election day registration. I'm guessing lots of other states who think it's a good thing for people vote do too.

explains Missouri laws

Offline star seed 7

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1487 on: October 30, 2020, 11:37:16 AM »
Missouri is NOT election friendly at all, it's so backwards
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline Institutional Control

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1488 on: October 30, 2020, 11:43:05 AM »
Missouri is NOT election friendly at all, it's so backwards

You have a notary stamp your absentee ballot in MO.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1489 on: October 30, 2020, 11:57:29 AM »
Missouri is NOT election friendly at all, it's so backwards

You have a notary stamp your absentee ballot in MO.
The in person absentee was a nice addition.

Online cfbandyman

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1490 on: October 30, 2020, 12:27:06 PM »
Thought this was p good.

Quote
One other funny thing about this election is that because of Drumpf’s Electoral College advantage, there is not much middle ground between a Biden landslide and an extremely competitive, down-to-the-wire photo finish.

If Drumpf beats his polls by 2 points, that’s a toss-up. If Biden beats his polls by 2 points, then it’s Obama 2008, which people consider a landslide. So the Electoral College edge makes a big difference and is why there’s been this very bifurcated, binary kind of world where we seem to oscillate between, “oh, my gosh, 2016 again” and “Drumpf is Herbert Hoover.”

https://www.vox.com/21538214/nate-silver-538-2020-forecast-2016-trump-biden-election-podcast

Honestly, it's fairly true. In the EV thread I know Chings said he had a hard time seeing Biden getting 300+, IMO though I have a hard time seeing trump getting 300+, he may very well win, but if he does it'll be close, conversely that state (PA) could flip to Biden and it also be a photo finish.

However, if things are truly in Biden's camp, it could swing it's way all the way to Tejas.
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Offline Trim

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1491 on: October 30, 2020, 03:32:50 PM »
Officially BidenVoter.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1492 on: October 30, 2020, 04:18:50 PM »

Online cfbandyman

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1493 on: October 30, 2020, 04:21:46 PM »
lol at taking the house
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1494 on: October 30, 2020, 04:36:03 PM »
lol at keeping the white house, too.

Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1495 on: October 30, 2020, 07:51:25 PM »

Offline chum1

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1496 on: October 30, 2020, 07:53:29 PM »
I'm going to check back with some of these twitter accounts if Trump loses.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1497 on: October 30, 2020, 07:55:44 PM »
I'm going to check back with some of these twitter accounts if Trump loses.

Screenshot the tweets now because they may be hard to find after he loses.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1498 on: October 30, 2020, 10:09:39 PM »
i'd think they'll get to 1.7 million pretty easily.  if it goes all the way to 1.8 m, that'd be amazing.

https://twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1322369069895585797

"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #1499 on: October 30, 2020, 10:12:28 PM »
should easily top 100 m, is 110 m possible?  and then the big question is how much vote is left for eday?

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1322369658759110656
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."