Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1050236 times)

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Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7250 on: May 27, 2020, 01:26:22 PM »
No county in Kansas is going to enforce anything. Individual businesses may enforce social distancing, but I really doubt most restaurants are going to impose long waits when half of their tables are open.

are bars allowed to open? Like, no restrictions at all? Seems like it should be a bigger story as much crap as Georgia got. (even though Georgia kept bars closed)

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7251 on: May 27, 2020, 01:29:16 PM »
No county in Kansas is going to enforce anything. Individual businesses may enforce social distancing, but I really doubt most restaurants are going to impose long waits when half of their tables are open.

are bars allowed to open? Like, no restrictions at all? Seems like it should be a bigger story as much crap as Georgia got. (even though Georgia kept bars closed)

The state has no restrictions at all. It's up to individual counties to impose restrictions. Governor Kelly is backing off of her phased reopening plan due to the legislature attempting to remove her emergency powers.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7252 on: May 27, 2020, 01:35:09 PM »
No county in Kansas is going to enforce anything. Individual businesses may enforce social distancing, but I really doubt most restaurants are going to impose long waits when half of their tables are open.

Wyco is until June 8

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7253 on: May 27, 2020, 01:36:26 PM »
No county in Kansas is going to enforce anything. Individual businesses may enforce social distancing, but I really doubt most restaurants are going to impose long waits when half of their tables are open.

are bars allowed to open? Like, no restrictions at all? Seems like it should be a bigger story as much crap as Georgia got. (even though Georgia kept bars closed)

Yeah it's crazy, doesn't seem to be a big story even locally

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7254 on: May 27, 2020, 01:36:48 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/?outputType=amp

I also think the second curve will happen before flu season because the behavior of the public has changed. That incident that happened at Great Clips in Springfield or Joplin or wherever will be repeated all over the country. When the breakouts started to happen people were okay with laying out. There are more active cases now than we had in mid March yet a large sector of the population wants to behave like they did in February, it's foolhardy to think this won't have consequences.


Offline Trim

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7255 on: May 27, 2020, 01:37:01 PM »
How long do I have to avoid kansas for?

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7256 on: May 27, 2020, 01:39:08 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/?outputType=amp

I also think the second curve will happen before flu season because the behavior of the public has changed. That incident that happened at Great Clips in Springfield or Joplin or wherever will be repeated all over the country. When the breakouts started to happen people were okay with laying out. There are more active cases now than we had in mid March yet a large sector of the population wants to behave like they did in February, it's foolhardy to think this won't have consequences.

Has it been reported how many the Great Clips person actually infected? 

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7257 on: May 27, 2020, 01:39:44 PM »
This doesn't seem very smart of Johnson County Kansas
https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article243020376.html#storylink=mainstage_lead

Laura bowed under political pressure. Godspeed Kansas. Maybe Kansas and Iowa can run their own Little League World Series, outbreak edition.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7258 on: May 27, 2020, 01:39:58 PM »
How long do I have to avoid kansas for?

forever is prob best

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7259 on: May 27, 2020, 01:44:31 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/?outputType=amp

I also think the second curve will happen before flu season because the behavior of the public has changed. That incident that happened at Great Clips in Springfield or Joplin or wherever will be repeated all over the country. When the breakouts started to happen people were okay with laying out. There are more active cases now than we had in mid March yet a large sector of the population wants to behave like they did in February, it's foolhardy to think this won't have consequences.

Has it been reported how many the Great Clips person actually infected?

People, there were two people working at the Great Clips with the rona, one of them also worked out at a gym in the same time period. There's no possible way they can have an accurate count, yet, as to how many of the approximately 150 people exposed just at the Great Clips are positive already, it hasn't even been a week yet.

What are the odds that one of those people exposed at Great Clips were at the Lake of the Ozarks or were exposed to someone else at the the lake/pool. Gotta be pretty high, right?

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7260 on: May 27, 2020, 01:50:25 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/?outputType=amp

I also think the second curve will happen before flu season because the behavior of the public has changed. That incident that happened at Great Clips in Springfield or Joplin or wherever will be repeated all over the country. When the breakouts started to happen people were okay with laying out. There are more active cases now than we had in mid March yet a large sector of the population wants to behave like they did in February, it's foolhardy to think this won't have consequences.

Has it been reported how many the Great Clips person actually infected?

People, there were two people working at the Great Clips with the rona, one of them also worked out at a gym in the same time period. There's no possible way they can have an accurate count, yet, as to how many of the approximately 150 people exposed just at the Great Clips are positive already, it hasn't even been a week yet.

What are the odds that one of those people exposed at Great Clips were at the Lake of the Ozarks or were exposed to someone else at the the lake/pool. Gotta be pretty high, right?

Get back to me when numbers end of week.

Sounds like everybody was wearing masks so will be interesting to see how many exposed become infected.  Hopefully a victory for #teammask
« Last Edit: May 27, 2020, 02:03:32 PM by Phil Titola »

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7261 on: May 27, 2020, 02:04:28 PM »
the positive thing about hairdressers is they aren't in contact with many people at once. I don't have a link handy, but I've read about how contagious you are peaking fairly early and fading out over time. So there wouldn't be a lot of close contacts at the peak transmission rate like you probably saw with the Korean night club superspreading event.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7262 on: May 27, 2020, 02:16:30 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/?outputType=amp

I also think the second curve will happen before flu season because the behavior of the public has changed. That incident that happened at Great Clips in Springfield or Joplin or wherever will be repeated all over the country. When the breakouts started to happen people were okay with laying out. There are more active cases now than we had in mid March yet a large sector of the population wants to behave like they did in February, it's foolhardy to think this won't have consequences.

Has it been reported how many the Great Clips person actually infected?

People, there were two people working at the Great Clips with the rona, one of them also worked out at a gym in the same time period. There's no possible way they can have an accurate count, yet, as to how many of the approximately 150 people exposed just at the Great Clips are positive already, it hasn't even been a week yet.

What are the odds that one of those people exposed at Great Clips were at the Lake of the Ozarks or were exposed to someone else at the the lake/pool. Gotta be pretty high, right?

Get back to me when numbers end of week.

Sounds like everybody was wearing masks so will be interesting to see how many exposed become infected.  Hopefully a victory for #teammask

Do we even know if the state of Missouri have tested and are contact tracing all of these people and everyone else they potentially contacted? Also don't they have to be isolated and repeatedly tested for two weeks?

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7263 on: May 27, 2020, 02:17:44 PM »
the positive thing about hairdressers is they aren't in contact with many people at once. I don't have a link handy, but I've read about how contagious you are peaking fairly early and fading out over time. So there wouldn't be a lot of close contacts at the peak transmission rate like you probably saw with the Korean night club superspreading event.

Yeah, this person/people working out at the gym and doing whatever else they were doing is much more concerning to me.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7264 on: May 27, 2020, 02:32:02 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

Sufficient to avoid replicating the 1918 pandemic? Yeah.

Offline DQ12

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7265 on: May 27, 2020, 02:43:12 PM »
I don't think we'll see another New York/NJ. I saw the analogy of a frog boiling which is what I expect is more likely unless we throw the doors open to indoor crowds or something.

Like what is happening in California and North Carolina



(Again I think this is showing that shelter in place alone won't stamp it out in any way shape or form)
That graph for North Carolina is kind of junky under the circumstances.  They had a big test dump on saturday where they released more than double the amount of results in any previous day, which obviously messes with the 7 day average.

Likewise, California has had almost 180k tests combined in the last three days, which is significantly higher than they've ever been before. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7266 on: May 27, 2020, 02:46:48 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

Was the air conditioning sufficient in 2009?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/?outputType=amp

I also think the second curve will happen before flu season because the behavior of the public has changed. That incident that happened at Great Clips in Springfield or Joplin or wherever will be repeated all over the country. When the breakouts started to happen people were okay with laying out. There are more active cases now than we had in mid March yet a large sector of the population wants to behave like they did in February, it's foolhardy to think this won't have consequences.

Has it been reported how many the Great Clips person actually infected?

People, there were two people working at the Great Clips with the rona, one of them also worked out at a gym in the same time period. There's no possible way they can have an accurate count, yet, as to how many of the approximately 150 people exposed just at the Great Clips are positive already, it hasn't even been a week yet.

What are the odds that one of those people exposed at Great Clips were at the Lake of the Ozarks or were exposed to someone else at the the lake/pool. Gotta be pretty high, right?

Get back to me when numbers end of week.

Sounds like everybody was wearing masks so will be interesting to see how many exposed become infected.  Hopefully a victory for #teammask

Do we even know if the state of Missouri have tested and are contact tracing all of these people and everyone else they potentially contacted? Also don't they have to be isolated and repeatedly tested for two weeks?

yes the articles I read say they are contact tracing all the people and offering them tests.  I assume they would also be told to isolate for 2 weeks but I don't know that.

Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7267 on: May 27, 2020, 03:25:05 PM »
I've read about how contagious you are peaking fairly early and fading out over time.

i'm not going to look for a link either, but have seen the same info.  most people are really only infectious (not infectious like if you're a nurse popping open someone's lung you can still get it from someone "non-infectious", but it's unlikely they'll infect someone by normal means) for 5-6 days or so.  the last 2-3 days of asymptomatic and the first 2-3 days with symptoms.  and even within that period, there's a much shorter peak of peak infectiousness.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7268 on: May 27, 2020, 03:27:26 PM »
I don't think we'll see another New York/NJ. I saw the analogy of a frog boiling which is what I expect is more likely unless we throw the doors open to indoor crowds or something.

Like what is happening in California and North Carolina



(Again I think this is showing that shelter in place alone won't stamp it out in any way shape or form)
That graph for North Carolina is kind of junky under the circumstances.  They had a big test dump on saturday where they released more than double the amount of results in any previous day, which obviously messes with the 7 day average.

Likewise, California has had almost 180k tests combined in the last three days, which is significantly higher than they've ever been before. 

No graph is perfect, but both states were trending upwards before the test dumps, so I don't think they're "junky", and they certainly don't invalidate the point I'm trying to make, that they aren't spiking and certainly aren't going down. I get that you want to tie any increases in positive cases purely to test increases, but there are quite a few states seeing huge test increases but fewer positive cases, especially New York and most of the Northeast.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/0_Home

you're also seeing an uptick in CA and NC hospitalizations

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals?%3Aembed=y&%3Adisplay_count=no&%3AshowVizHome=no

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/

Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7269 on: May 27, 2020, 03:31:02 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

ignoring phil's bugaboo, ordinary air conditioning has been proposed as a good way to promote, not limit, spread.  however, there have been suggestions that hepa filters will remove a lot of the airborne virus and people have proposed installing uv traps in systems to kill virus before recirculating, so if we wanted to make the effort, we could probably outfit at least larger buildings and probably public transit with systems that did limit spread.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7270 on: May 27, 2020, 03:53:37 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

ignoring phil's bugaboo, ordinary air conditioning has been proposed as a good way to promote, not limit, spread.  however, there have been suggestions that hepa filters will remove a lot of the airborne virus and people have proposed installing uv traps in systems to kill virus before recirculating, so if we wanted to make the effort, we could probably outfit at least larger buildings and probably public transit with systems that did limit spread.

good news on public transit (also worth reading if you're interested in how Japan took care of things)

Quote
Not surprisingly, they found that most clusters originated in gyms, pubs, live music venues, karaoke rooms, and similar establishments where people gather, eat and drink, chat, sing, and work out or dance, rubbing shoulders for relatively extended periods of time. They also concluded that most of the primary cases that touched off large clusters were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms. “It is impossible to stop the emergence of clusters just by testing many people,” Oshitani says. This led them to urge people to avoid what they dubbed the “three Cs”—closed spaces, crowds, and close-contact settings in which people are talking face-to-face. It sounds simple. But, “This has been the most important component of the strategy,” Oshitani says.

(Reassuringly, they did not trace any clusters to Japan’s notoriously packed commuter trains. Oshitani says riders are usually alone and not talking to other passengers. And lately, they are all wearing masks. “An infected individual can infect others in such an environment, but it must be rare,” he says. He says Japan would have seen large outbreaks traced to trains if airborne transmission of the virus was possible.)

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/japan-ends-its-covid-19-state-emergency

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7271 on: May 27, 2020, 04:13:02 PM »
don't talk and wear a mask.  doesn't really seem that hard (but we're not going to try it).
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7272 on: May 27, 2020, 04:14:02 PM »
Air conditioning and air filtration seems to be good at limiting spread right? That would give us an edge over the 1918 suckers.

ignoring phil's bugaboo, ordinary air conditioning has been proposed as a good way to promote, not limit, spread.  however, there have been suggestions that hepa filters will remove a lot of the airborne virus and people have proposed installing uv traps in systems to kill virus before recirculating, so if we wanted to make the effort, we could probably outfit at least larger buildings and probably public transit with systems that did limit spread.

That study stated the virus wasn't found on the vents so they concluded it was more the direct wind blowing from the a/c into the other tables, not being recycled into the system?

It's a valid story but it is just overapplied  I don't know many restaurants where three 10 person round tables are shoved in a 21' wide space.  Especially now.  They didn't rule out that the spread was within the family after the restaurant "We determined that virus had been transmitted to >1 member of family B and >1 member of family C at the restaurant and that further infections in families B and C resulted from within-family transmission."

My last curiousity with that study is the index patient went from asympomatic at the restaurant to hospitalized that same day?  :dubious:

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7273 on: May 27, 2020, 04:19:22 PM »
don't talk and wear a mask.  doesn't really seem that hard (but we're not going to try it).

back in the good ol' days when I took Bart, I hated seeing someone I knew because I hated talking to them. Even if it was someone I liked! I wanted disconnected silence

It's a valid story but it is just overapplied  I don't know many restaurants where three 10 person round tables are shoved in a 21' wide space.  Especially now.  They didn't rule out that the spread was within the family after the restaurant "We determined that virus had been transmitted to >1 member of family B and >1 member of family C at the restaurant and that further infections in families B and C resulted from within-family transmission."

you are obsessed with this study but pretty much every nice restaurant I've been to has as many people piled on top of each other as possible.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7274 on: May 27, 2020, 04:24:20 PM »
don't talk and wear a mask.  doesn't really seem that hard (but we're not going to try it).

back in the good ol' days when I took Bart, I hated seeing someone I knew because I hated talking to them. Even if it was someone I liked! I wanted disconnected silence

It's a valid story but it is just overapplied  I don't know many restaurants where three 10 person round tables are shoved in a 21' wide space.  Especially now.  They didn't rule out that the spread was within the family after the restaurant "We determined that virus had been transmitted to >1 member of family B and >1 member of family C at the restaurant and that further infections in families B and C resulted from within-family transmission."

you are obsessed with this study but pretty much every nice restaurant I've been to has as many people piled on top of each other as possible.


I agree, I am.  I want more data on indoor transmission and every story you read is some manipulation of this one study.  If it was so prevelant we'd have tons more by now.