I don't think we'll see another New York/NJ. I saw the analogy of a frog boiling which is what I expect is more likely unless we throw the doors open to indoor crowds or something.
Like what is happening in California and North Carolina
(Again I think this is showing that shelter in place alone won't stamp it out in any way shape or form)
That graph for North Carolina is kind of junky under the circumstances. They had a big test dump on saturday where they released more than double the amount of results in any previous day, which obviously messes with the 7 day average.
Likewise, California has had almost 180k tests combined in the last three days, which is significantly higher than they've ever been before.
No graph is perfect, but both states were trending upwards before the test dumps, so I don't think they're "junky", and they certainly don't invalidate the point I'm trying to make, that they aren't spiking and certainly aren't going down. I get that you want to tie any increases in positive cases purely to test increases, but there are quite a few states seeing huge test increases but fewer positive cases, especially New York and most of the Northeast.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/0_Home
you're also seeing an uptick in CA and NC hospitalizations
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals?%3Aembed=y&%3Adisplay_count=no&%3AshowVizHome=no
https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/
Looking at day-to-day (or even 7 day average) of raw positive rates is dumb when you have outlier testing days like the NC and CA datasets in the graph. Maybe people are getting sick at a greater rate, maybe not. Whatever the answer is, that line chart doesn't tell us.
Re. California: From -21 to -3, you had a 7 day average somewhere between 40 and 50. Then, on -2 to -0 (5/24-26), you see a jump from 50 to 60. That's a 20 percent increase! It's more than coincidental that California tested 180,000 over those three days.
The same goes for North Carolina. They reported 1100 new cases (they previously hadn't reported more than 900) on a day when they more than doubled any other testing day they've had. Of course numbers are going to go up when you
double testing output, and when you're using a 7 day average, those numbers are going to permeate the other days that touches that data point for the 7 day average.
You can see this in the 7 day rolling averages of percent positives. Per
https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/0_Home, California is currently at about the level they were at on 5/17, and the variance during that timespan has been about 0.2%. At the end of April, CA's 7 day avg of % positive was at 7. Maybe the 0.2% uptick means the virus is spreading. Maybe it's just wavelike noise that's accompanied California's drop in % positive throughout the last month. Who knows? Not me.
NC's 7 day rolling avg for % positive is as low as it's ever been (at least as low as the site you linked goes back).
