Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1050686 times)

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Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1475 on: March 18, 2020, 09:24:14 AM »
KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.

Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.

But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?

You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline bucket

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1476 on: March 18, 2020, 09:31:13 AM »
KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.

Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.

But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?

You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?

Have you read about the horror stories happening in Italy? Do you not believe them or think they're overblown? I would think anyone who understood that would understand the need to flatten the curve.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1477 on: March 18, 2020, 10:00:26 AM »


KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.

Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.

But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?

You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?

You should read the articles I linked from the NYT on ventilator and hospital bed capacity as well as the Imperial College report

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1478 on: March 18, 2020, 10:03:01 AM »
Also 10k deaths? Come on.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1479 on: March 18, 2020, 10:08:12 AM »
It's really hard for me to wrap my head around the death toll from the Imperial College Report. I don't believe we will see anywhere near 1 million deaths.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1480 on: March 18, 2020, 10:09:10 AM »
It's really hard for me to wrap my head around the death toll from the Imperial College Report. I don't believe we will see anywhere near 1 million deaths.
What is this based on?

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1481 on: March 18, 2020, 10:10:38 AM »
It's really hard for me to wrap my head around the death toll from the Imperial College Report. I don't believe we will see anywhere near 1 million deaths.
What is this based on?

The disease appears to be ramping down in China and they have less than 10,000 deaths.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1482 on: March 18, 2020, 10:48:00 AM »
KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.

Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.

But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?

You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?

Have you read about the horror stories happening in Italy? Do you not believe them or think they're overblown? I would think anyone who understood that would understand the need to flatten the curve.

Italy is a vastly different situation than the United States. Italy was walloped because (1) it has a staggeringly old population, and (2) Italy had a much more direct pipeline to the virus at the outset via a fairly unique trade and labor deal with China. Italy is basically the China-West if Europe.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/27/italys-joins-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative.html

Finally, Italian hospitals generally follow an older more communal plan. Rather than separate rooms, it’s not uncommon to still see large dormitory style halls divided by sheets. Probably not the best means of preventing transmission of contagious disease - especially when they weren’t sure what they were dealing with yet.

Projections based upon experience in Italy should be treated with a great deal of skepticism.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 10:52:43 AM by K-S-U-Wildcats! »
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1483 on: March 18, 2020, 10:53:38 AM »
It’s really a no-win situation. If all of the social distancing and closing things works well, those like KSU-W will say that it was an unnecessary over-reaction because it was just like a mild flu season. If it doesn’t work well, then we’re mumped anyway.
:adios:

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1484 on: March 18, 2020, 10:55:10 AM »
Basically great success by the alarmists fits perfectly into the “nothing to see here” narrative. Kind of like climate change, in that respect.
:adios:

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1485 on: March 18, 2020, 10:57:45 AM »
K-Dub, Coronavirus isn't transmitted via infrastructure construction.

Offline star seed 7

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Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1487 on: March 18, 2020, 11:03:29 AM »
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I hope some of the bar and restaurant owners have the fortitude to stay open and protect their lively hood. This will destroy hundreds of establishments. The hysteria and pandemonium caused by the media dose not constitute legal cause to close down private business. Marshal law. has not been declared. When did we become sheep? Do as your mother told you ... Keep your hands to your self...wash them. There is so much more at steak here than the flu or the transmission there of. think about it people! Why is this happening over this strain of virus?

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1488 on: March 18, 2020, 11:12:16 AM »
KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.

Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.

But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?

You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?

Have you read about the horror stories happening in Italy? Do you not believe them or think they're overblown? I would think anyone who understood that would understand the need to flatten the curve.

Italy is a vastly different situation than the United States. Italy was walloped because (1) it has a staggeringly old population, and (2) Italy had a much more direct pipeline to the virus at the outset via a fairly unique trade and labor deal with China. Italy is basically the China-West if Europe.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/27/italys-joins-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative.html

Finally, Italian hospitals generally follow an older more communal plan. Rather than separate rooms, it’s not uncommon to still see large dormitory style halls divided by sheets. Probably not the best means of preventing transmission of contagious disease - especially when they weren’t sure what they were dealing with yet.

Projections based upon experience in Italy should be treated with a great deal of skepticism.

Except we're on the exact same glidepath as Italy with less testing?

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1489 on: March 18, 2020, 11:15:23 AM »
KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.

Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.

But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?

You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
So what’s the number that would justify the type of measures being taken currently?

Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1490 on: March 18, 2020, 11:18:12 AM »
So what’s the number that would justify the type of measures being taken currently?

What's the number where all of the measures being undertaken by local, state and the federal government would not be justified?

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1491 on: March 18, 2020, 11:22:59 AM »
I can tell based upon the recent posts that some of you are close to the tipping point of acknowledging we’ve gone overboard. It’s ok to be concerned. You also need to be skeptical and keep a sense of perspective.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1492 on: March 18, 2020, 11:26:59 AM »
When even Donald Trump and Fox News have pivoted to this being a big deal and you are still holding firm it’s really time to evaluate who your moral compass equivalents are.


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Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1493 on: March 18, 2020, 11:28:21 AM »
It’s really a no-win situation. If all of the social distancing and closing things works well, those like KSU-W will say that it was an unnecessary over-reaction because it was just like a mild flu season. If it doesn’t work well, then we’re mumped anyway.

Perfect example of Point 5 from my treatise back on 3/15....

Quote
5. The chicken littles, whether in government, media, or everyday walks of life, will never admit they overreacted. For three reasons: (1) they’ll always point to the draconian steps that were taken, even if they seriously harm the economy, as the reason for why the death toll didn’t hit the dreadful numbers of those simulations, (2) there’s always going to be a new study, a new tweet, to which they’ll cling, and (3) hey, they were just taking responsible precautions. But sending us into an economic depression is not responsible.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1494 on: March 18, 2020, 11:32:05 AM »
So what’s the number that would justify the type of measures being taken currently?

What's the number where all of the measures being undertaken by local, state and the federal government would not be justified?
Anything less than the seasonal flu. Now you and KSUW answer!

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1495 on: March 18, 2020, 11:32:28 AM »
So we should have just let it run its course Dub?

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1496 on: March 18, 2020, 11:33:32 AM »
When even Donald Trump and Fox News have pivoted to this being a big deal and you are still holding firm it’s really time to evaluate who your moral compass equivalents are.

I gotta be honest, I have no idea what you’re trying to say by “moral compass equivalents.” This isn’t an issue of morality - it’s an issue common sense. As I’ve said repeatedly (see my 3/15 treatise) it is really, really dumb to cite the actions of a politician as justification for how seriously this should be taken. I understand the political calculations taken by Trump in calibrating his response, but that doesn’t mean I think they are appropriate. I am not a partisan lemming. I prefer to think for myself.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1497 on: March 18, 2020, 11:35:18 AM »
:lol:

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1498 on: March 18, 2020, 11:35:44 AM »
I think the "we shouldn't be doing anything" stance is consistent with the belief that potentially saving the lives of kids who get gunned down in schools is not worth the mild inconvenience of gun control. It would be hypocritical to support the social distancing measures the government is implementing and not support gun control.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 11:40:58 AM by Rage Against the McKee »

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1499 on: March 18, 2020, 11:38:06 AM »
What kdub is trying to say is our politicians are just too big of pussies to vastly overwhelm the Healthcare system and let a few million die
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite