KSUW: would like to hear your predictions on the American deaths resulting from COVID-19 when it’s all said and done, as well as what projected number you think would justify the measures we’re taking right now. TIA.
Sorry I missed this before. I dunno, I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020. I’d set the over/under on the CDC’s projected infections at 10,000,000 by end of 2020. Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
But not sure what the point of this is, because the question is not how many I think will occur, but how different would the numbers be without the drastic and economically damaging actions we’ve taken? How do you answer that? I obviously don’t think the numbers we’ve seen so far come close to justifying what we’ve done. There’s a good chance we’re going to see at least 15% unemployment at least temporarily, and for how long?
You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?