Fire Chris Klieman

[sonofdaxjones]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

[PurpleOil]

One thing that even the trolls should give Klieman credit for is that he was ballsy against OU and it kept us in the game. We were what 4-5 on fourth down and only time we didn't convert was the Weber drop. Those weren't all trying to come back from a huge defect either, we went for it on 4th down on the first drive of the game.

He's starting to learn the differences between winning at K-State and winning at NDSU. In 2019 it was so frustrating how conservative he was, in every situation. His risk aversion may have cost us both the UT & WVU games in '19. We're on pace to have the most 4th down attempts since 2008. Of course Ron had an obscene amount of 4th down attempts, his teams conversion rates were abysmal.

I absolutely loved him going for it so many times on 4th. Love the aggressiveness, loved how we kept converting, loved the play calls; it all made me feel good.

[ChiComCat]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality. 

[DQ12]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

Weird how the roller coaster ride of inconsistency seems to correlate pretty identically to whether a particular player at the most important position in sports is playing.  Mess must just be calling better plays when Skylar is out there.

[Purple Derpathy]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality.

This. We should have been operating in the 2-min offense with 9-minutes to go, but this coaching staff has no concept of clock management. I understand this isn't our offensive philosophy, but scoreboard should dictate your pace of play. I'd rather run the 'risk' of unforced errors in playing faster than normal over trying to convert a ridiculous 4th and 14.  Even if Weber had caught the ball, I'd have the same opinion. Anyone have some data on this? I can't imagine the likelihood of success being over 10%.

[bucket]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality.

That was a catch!

[DQ12]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality.

This. We should have been operating in the 2-min offense with 9-minutes to go, but this coaching staff has no concept of clock management. I understand this isn't our offensive philosophy, but scoreboard should dictate your pace of play. I'd rather run the 'risk' of unforced errors in playing faster than normal over trying to convert a ridiculous 4th and 14.  Even if Weber had caught the ball, I'd have the same opinion. Anyone have some data on this? I can't imagine the likelihood of success being over 10%.

Yeah does anyone have a database about how often 4th and 14s are converted at the college level?

It was pretty aggressive given the down and distance.  On the other hand, we were down 10 at the time, OU had scored on 5 of their 6 possessions at that point (3 of which were touchdowns).  Voluntarily ceding the ball likely results in another score.  Playing for field position by punting in OU territory there seems like it offers very little benefit, given the relative ease OU had had moving the football.  So yeah, it's a longshot to convert, but the marginal benefit of punting there is probably pretty low too. 

[Purple Derpathy]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality.

This. We should have been operating in the 2-min offense with 9-minutes to go, but this coaching staff has no concept of clock management. I understand this isn't our offensive philosophy, but scoreboard should dictate your pace of play. I'd rather run the 'risk' of unforced errors in playing faster than normal over trying to convert a ridiculous 4th and 14.  Even if Weber had caught the ball, I'd have the same opinion. Anyone have some data on this? I can't imagine the likelihood of success being over 10%.

Yeah does anyone have a database about how often 4th and 14s are converted at the college level?

It was pretty aggressive given the down and distance.  On the other hand, we were down 10 at the time, OU had scored on 5 of their 6 possessions at that point (3 of which were touchdowns).  Voluntarily ceding the ball likely results in another score.  Playing for field position by punting in OU territory there seems like it offers very little benefit, given the relative ease OU had had moving the football.  So yeah, it's a longshot to convert, but the marginal benefit of punting there is probably pretty low too.

Lucky for us, we're halfway there. https://thesportjournal.org/article/predictive-modeling-of-4th-down-conversion-in-power-5-conferences-football-data-analytics/

According to our friends from the Sport Journal, the probability of success on 4th and 7 within Power 5 Conferences is 36% based on a sample size of 130 instances. Certainly one of our math geeks can do some regression analysis here based on subset of data we have....

[sonofdaxjones]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

Weird how the roller coaster ride of inconsistency seems to correlate pretty identically to whether a particular player at the most important position in sports is playing.  Mess must just be calling better plays when Skylar is out there.

Which is why they really need to hit the portal.  I doubt Rubley is going to be ready anytime soon.

[wetwillie]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

Weird how the roller coaster ride of inconsistency seems to correlate pretty identically to whether a particular player at the most important position in sports is playing.  Mess must just be calling better plays when Skylar is out there.

Which is why they really need to hit the portal.  I doubt Rubley is going to be ready anytime soon.

I’d like to see them bring in someone with multiple years of eligibility but if it’s a grad transfer it’s better than nothing

[ChiComCat]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality.

This. We should have been operating in the 2-min offense with 9-minutes to go, but this coaching staff has no concept of clock management. I understand this isn't our offensive philosophy, but scoreboard should dictate your pace of play. I'd rather run the 'risk' of unforced errors in playing faster than normal over trying to convert a ridiculous 4th and 14.  Even if Weber had caught the ball, I'd have the same opinion. Anyone have some data on this? I can't imagine the likelihood of success being over 10%.

Yeah does anyone have a database about how often 4th and 14s are converted at the college level?

It was pretty aggressive given the down and distance.  On the other hand, we were down 10 at the time, OU had scored on 5 of their 6 possessions at that point (3 of which were touchdowns).  Voluntarily ceding the ball likely results in another score.  Playing for field position by punting in OU territory there seems like it offers very little benefit, given the relative ease OU had had moving the football.  So yeah, it's a longshot to convert, but the marginal benefit of punting there is probably pretty low too. 

A couple of the drives started at the 19 and 36 of KSU.  I think you're better off trusting the defense IF you trust your punter to pin them relatively well.  To be honest, though, I don't know that I've seen our punter do that terribly well. 

[ChiComCat]

I also think that if you have a play you like on 4th and 14, you probably should've ran it on 2nd or 3rd and long.

[BIG APPLE CAT]

I wasn't thrilled about the 4th & 14 (not just because it failed) but was on board with the rest of them and the overall mentality.

This. We should have been operating in the 2-min offense with 9-minutes to go, but this coaching staff has no concept of clock management. I understand this isn't our offensive philosophy, but scoreboard should dictate your pace of play. I'd rather run the 'risk' of unforced errors in playing faster than normal over trying to convert a ridiculous 4th and 14.  Even if Weber had caught the ball, I'd have the same opinion. Anyone have some data on this? I can't imagine the likelihood of success being over 10%.

Yeah does anyone have a database about how often 4th and 14s are converted at the college level?

It was pretty aggressive given the down and distance.  On the other hand, we were down 10 at the time, OU had scored on 5 of their 6 possessions at that point (3 of which were touchdowns).  Voluntarily ceding the ball likely results in another score.  Playing for field position by punting in OU territory there seems like it offers very little benefit, given the relative ease OU had had moving the football.  So yeah, it's a longshot to convert, but the marginal benefit of punting there is probably pretty low too. 

A couple of the drives started at the 19 and 36 of KSU.  I think you're better off trusting the defense IF you trust your punter to pin them relatively well.  To be honest, though, I don't know that I've seen our punter do that terribly well.

He was arguably our MVP of the OkSt game

[pissclams]

if we can go 4-5 on 4th against OU’s defense, there’s absolutely no reason to punt the rest of the season

[nicname]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

The following are Mess’ seasons as a P5 OC, showing his offensive points per drive (OPD), w/ national rank in (xx)

2012 - 1.73 (74)
2013 - 1.71 (91)
2019 - 2.37 (55)
2020 - 2.16 (67)
2021 - 2.49 (46)

Just for conversation fodder.

A link to BCFtoys, a cool website with a bunch of stats… https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-ppd

[Winters]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

The following are Mess’ seasons as a P5 OC, showing his offensive points per drive (OPD), w/ national rank in (xx)

2012 - 1.73 (74)
2013 - 1.71 (91)
2019 - 2.37 (55)
2020 - 2.16 (67)
2021 - 2.49 (46)

Just for conversation fodder.

[PurpleOil]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

The following are Mess’ seasons as a P5 OC, showing his offensive points per drive (OPD), w/ national rank in (xx)

2012 - 1.73 (74)
2013 - 1.71 (91)
2019 - 2.37 (55)
2020 - 2.16 (67)
2021 - 2.49 (46)

Just for conversation fodder.

A link to BCFtoys, a cool website with a bunch of stats… https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-ppd

Is there any way to go back and see what Dana Dimel's happened to be from 2010-2015?

[wiley]

The offensive staff has to be on notice.

This roller coaster ride of inconsistency and 3rd qtr power outages has to end for MoValley Messingham.

The following are Mess’ seasons as a P5 OC, showing his offensive points per drive (OPD), w/ national rank in (xx)

2012 - 1.73 (74)
2013 - 1.71 (91)
2019 - 2.37 (55)
2020 - 2.16 (67)
2021 - 2.49 (46)

Just for conversation fodder.

A link to BCFtoys, a cool website with a bunch of stats… https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-ppd

I understand why they do fbs vs fbs (and im not taking the initiative to improve on the stats produced).  But stats like these essentially gloss over the fact that iowa state has crushed two of the worst fbs teams, while looking like dog crap against a salty fcs team.  And are ranked 11th this year in Net PPD.

[DQ12]

Looking at our aggregate offensive stats from 2020 and so far in 2021 are pretty pointless, given the stark contrast between life with skylar and life without.

In the two full games K-State had thompson for last year, K-State operated at about 2.87 PPD (~21st in the country).  In the two games with Thompson this season, K-State's at about 3 PPD, which again would put K-State around 21st.

If we want to kill Messingham for not having a better QB/or not figuring out an offense to run with Howard and the crew, that's fine.  But with a decent/good (depending on your assessment of Skylar) QB on the field, Mess's offenses have been very good the last two years (albeit in a relatively small sample).  The scheme is very good - but it requires a decent QB.

I'm also not going to be too critical of his 2019 season, first year and all that.

[nicname]

I don’t know what happened to the post but Dimel was very good in ppd 2010-2014. He was at 2.21 (57) in 2015.

[DQ12]

in about 2014 i was clamoring to have dana be kansas state's next head coach. 

[nicname]

in about 2014 i was clamoring to have dana be kansas state's next head coach.

Dana:
2009 - 1.68 (91), Gregory
2010 - 2.61 (25), CCQ
2011 - 2.63 (22), CK
2012 - 3.21 (6), CK
2013 - 2.90 (16), Waters, Sams
2014 - 2.95 (11), Waters
2015 - 2.21 (57), Bazooka Joe, ???
2016 - 2.49 (36), Ertz
2017 - 2.38 (39), Ertz, Thompson, Delton

[PurpleOil]

Those are not terrible numbers, honestly. Certainly better than what we're seeing right now.

[DQ12]

Those are not terrible numbers, honestly. Certainly better than what we're seeing right now.

the offense has been horrible because the QB has been horrible.  in the last two years, when skylar has been playing, the offense has been as good as any K-State offense since 2012 (at least based on PPD).

if the offense sucks next year without thompson, yeah, that's on Mess.  but i don't know how anyone can be so critical when his starting QB has been hurt in 11 of the last 15 games.  that's a product of shitty luck, not bad coordinating.

[Purple Derpathy]

Those are not terrible numbers, honestly. Certainly better than what we're seeing right now.

the offense has been horrible because the QB has been horrible.  in the last two years, when skylar has been playing, the offense has been as good as any K-State offense since 2012 (at least based on PPD).

if the offense sucks next year without thompson, yeah, that's on Mess.  but i don't know how anyone can be so critical when his starting QB has been hurt in 11 of the last 15 games.  that's a product of shitty luck, not bad coordinating.

If only we had a serviceable backup.......