Author Topic: 2014-15 big 12 basketball  (Read 74976 times)

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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #525 on: February 11, 2015, 11:44:02 AM »
This isn't even worth an argument - this is "Haha, he said fools gold.  He is like Wooly"

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #526 on: February 11, 2015, 11:46:04 AM »
This isn't even worth an argument - this is "Haha, he said fools gold.  He is like Wooly"

Yes.

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #527 on: February 11, 2015, 11:57:35 AM »
Relying on hot shooting from the perimeter is fool's gold.  It's one of the main reasons why teams like Iowa State never win the league.

Or Duke. Or Wisconsin. But yeah.


Duke and Wisconsin are both extremely efficient on both sides of the ball and have reliable scorers in the post.  But yeah.

You do realize I'm picking these teams on purpose, correct? Especially as it relates to Coach Self's point about 3PA%? My presumption is that you understand this stat and how those teams use it compared to KU.


When was the last time Wisconsin won a national championship?  Duke lost to Mercer in the first round of the tournament last year because they had no defense and relied too much on perimeter shooting.  But yeah.

Offline meow meow

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #528 on: February 11, 2015, 12:13:31 PM »
how have the mods not changed _Fan to stat boy yet?

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #529 on: February 11, 2015, 12:17:06 PM »
When was the last time Wisconsin won a national championship?  Duke lost to Mercer in the first round of the tournament last year because they had no defense and relied too much on perimeter shooting.  But yeah.

In the last 10 years Duke has a NC, Elite 8s, Sweet 16s and league titles. Wisconsin has a F4, Elite 8s, Sweet 16s, and league titles. Similar to KU.

Both Coach K and Coach Ryan have adjusted their philosophy on 3s and 3PT attempts during that time and it has enhanced their programs. Ryan's teams have consistently shot 40% of their attempts as 3s the last 6 seasons. Coach K's teams have fluctuated more, but 4 of those 10 years his teams shot nearly 40% of their attempts.

You can read into that whatever you want.

Also, good to have you back Beems.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #530 on: February 11, 2015, 12:19:34 PM »

Offline Cartierfor3

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #531 on: February 11, 2015, 12:20:47 PM »
Is there a way Chings to notate which team on the chart was the NC each year?

Offline pissclams

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #532 on: February 11, 2015, 12:21:26 PM »


oh great, look who showed up...it's graph boy


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Offline CHONGS

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #533 on: February 11, 2015, 12:28:16 PM »

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #534 on: February 11, 2015, 12:35:01 PM »
When was the last time Wisconsin won a national championship?  Duke lost to Mercer in the first round of the tournament last year because they had no defense and relied too much on perimeter shooting.  But yeah.

In the last 10 years Duke has a NC, Elite 8s, Sweet 16s and league titles. Wisconsin has a F4, Elite 8s, Sweet 16s, and league titles. Similar to KU.

Both Coach K and Coach Ryan have adjusted their philosophy on 3s and 3PT attempts during that time and it has enhanced their programs. Ryan's teams have consistently shot 40% of their attempts as 3s the last 6 seasons. Coach K's teams have fluctuated more, but 4 of those 10 years his teams shot nearly 40% of their attempts.

You can read into that whatever you want.

Also, good to have you back Beems.


Good to be back, _FAN.  I don't totally disagree with you, FWIW.  Teams who shoot well from the perimeter can certainly get hot and rattle off a few wins in the NCAA tournament, but those teams have a more difficult time withstanding a bad shooting night, which is often something national championship teams have to do at some point in the NCAA tournament.   You mention Duke, who won a national title in 2010, but 2010 is their only championship and Final Four appearance since 2004.  They've been bounced from the 1st round of the tournament in three of the last eight years.  In fact, in that time period, Duke has only made it past the 2nd round four times.  The difference in that 2010 team is that they had a ton of size down low with the Plumlee brothers, Singler, Kelly, Thomas, and Zubek, and so they could defend the post and rebound well. 

Similarly, Wisconsin really hasn't had that much success in the NCAA tournament until last year, when they reached the Final Four.  In fact, in the last ten years, they've only made it past the Sweet Sixteen twice.  In Bo Ryan's twelve seasons with the program, they've only gotten past the second round five times. 

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #535 on: February 11, 2015, 12:41:12 PM »
When was the last time Wisconsin won a national championship?  Duke lost to Mercer in the first round of the tournament last year because they had no defense and relied too much on perimeter shooting.  But yeah.

In the last 10 years Duke has a NC, Elite 8s, Sweet 16s and league titles. Wisconsin has a F4, Elite 8s, Sweet 16s, and league titles. Similar to KU.

Both Coach K and Coach Ryan have adjusted their philosophy on 3s and 3PT attempts during that time and it has enhanced their programs. Ryan's teams have consistently shot 40% of their attempts as 3s the last 6 seasons. Coach K's teams have fluctuated more, but 4 of those 10 years his teams shot nearly 40% of their attempts.

You can read into that whatever you want.

Also, good to have you back Beems.


Good to be back, _FAN.  I don't totally disagree with you, FWIW.  Teams who shoot well from the perimeter can certainly get hot and rattle off a few wins in the NCAA tournament, but those teams have a more difficult time withstanding a bad shooting night, which is often something national championship teams have to do at some point in the NCAA tournament.   You mention Duke, who won a national title in 2010, but 2010 is their only championship and Final Four appearance since 2004.  They've been bounced from the 1st round of the tournament in three of the last eight years.  In fact, in that time period, Duke has only made it past the 2nd round four times.  The difference in that 2010 team is that they had a ton of size down low with the Plumlee brothers, Singler, Kelly, Thomas, and Zubek, and so they could defend the post and rebound well. 

Similarly, Wisconsin really hasn't had that much success in the NCAA tournament until last year, when they reached the Final Four.  In fact, in the last ten years, they've only made it past the Sweet Sixteen twice.  In Bo Ryan's twelve seasons with the program, they've only gotten past the second round five times. 

Fair enough.

My point for Self this year is that I don't think KU is riding Perry, Traylor, and Alexander to a NC or even a Final 4. Its really the first team from Self that doens't have a dominant big or bigs, and riding those guards and shooting from Mason, Selden, Greene, and Oubre is much more likely to result in a Final 4 run.

JMHO.

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #536 on: February 11, 2015, 12:59:17 PM »
so... teams that shoot the ball well, ending up doing well in the tournament.  i'm writing that down, don't want to forget it when it comes time to own some noob on the hoops bbs board.


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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #537 on: February 11, 2015, 01:04:54 PM »
I'll put this here:

Charles.  :cry:

Offline Steffy08

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #538 on: February 11, 2015, 01:10:48 PM »
This simply isn't true. Good programs like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, and even Duke have had 3PA% in the upper 30s or 40s and regularly been top 4 seeds in the tournament and have success. There are multiple ways to win and shooting good 3s is definitely one of them.

Top 4 seeds isn't what we are talking about.  We are talking about winning 6 games in the NCAA tournament.  (At least, that is how I interpret Self's comments.)

And, the fact that good teams/programs sometimes shoot a lot of threes, and win, isn't the point.  Duke could probably win a lot of games by shooting nothing but hook shots, but that doesn't mean that that is the BEST way for them to win games (let alone six games in a row).

I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people:  relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more.  It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series.  But the NCAA tournament is one and done.

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #539 on: February 11, 2015, 01:20:36 PM »
Remember when tHuggins taught Seff that the game's easier when you make shots?

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #540 on: February 11, 2015, 02:15:16 PM »
This simply isn't true. Good programs like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, and even Duke have had 3PA% in the upper 30s or 40s and regularly been top 4 seeds in the tournament and have success. There are multiple ways to win and shooting good 3s is definitely one of them.

Top 4 seeds isn't what we are talking about.  We are talking about winning 6 games in the NCAA tournament.  (At least, that is how I interpret Self's comments.)

And, the fact that good teams/programs sometimes shoot a lot of threes, and win, isn't the point.  Duke could probably win a lot of games by shooting nothing but hook shots, but that doesn't mean that that is the BEST way for them to win games (let alone six games in a row).

I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people:  relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more.  It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series.  But the NCAA tournament is one and done.

Just looking at National Champions, the numbers indicate that Self's philosophy is a good idea, though I'll still contend 35% 3PA% is a good idea for his current KU team, among other things.





Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #541 on: February 11, 2015, 02:23:59 PM »
so... teams that shoot the ball well, ending up doing well in the tournament.  i'm writing that down, don't want to forget it when it comes time to own some noob on the hoops bbs board.

bullshit

Offline pissclams

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #542 on: February 11, 2015, 02:38:53 PM »
so... teams that shoot the ball well, ending up doing well in the tournament.  i'm writing that down, don't want to forget it when it comes time to own some noob on the hoops bbs board.

bullshit

if i knew how to make a graph i would prove it to you


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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #543 on: February 11, 2015, 03:26:41 PM »
so... teams that shoot the ball well, ending up doing well in the tournament.  i'm writing that down, don't want to forget it when it comes time to own some noob on the hoops bbs board.

bullshit

if i knew how to make a graph i would prove it to you

There's no graph that can make this true, you kids and your damn stats and stuff  :shakesfist:

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #544 on: February 11, 2015, 03:31:59 PM »
so... teams that shoot the ball well, ending up doing well in the tournament.  i'm writing that down, don't want to forget it when it comes time to own some noob on the hoops bbs board.

bullshit

if i knew how to make a graph i would prove it to you

There's no graph that can make this true, you kids and your damn stats and stuff  :shakesfist:

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All these guys who run these organizations who talk about analytics, they have one thing in common -- they're a bunch of guys who have never played the game, and they never got the girls in high school, and they just want to get in the game.

Offline Yard Dog

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #545 on: February 11, 2015, 04:50:07 PM »
Um, am i the only one that watched Moneyball guys? Sheesh. Analytics = winning.

Offline Cartierfor3

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #546 on: February 11, 2015, 04:54:10 PM »
Billy Beane never played the game or ever got girls in High School

Offline Yard Dog

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #547 on: February 11, 2015, 04:56:23 PM »
Billy Beane never played the game or ever got girls in High School

Good point. But Charles also mentioned that analytics didn't mean a team was good or would win in his comments.

Offline ksufan44

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #548 on: February 11, 2015, 05:09:56 PM »
IMHO, in the NBA, the best team usually wins. In college, matchups and analytics definitely have more of a role.

Offline Steffy08

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Re: 2014-15 big 12 basketball
« Reply #549 on: February 11, 2015, 05:10:59 PM »
This simply isn't true. Good programs like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, and even Duke have had 3PA% in the upper 30s or 40s and regularly been top 4 seeds in the tournament and have success. There are multiple ways to win and shooting good 3s is definitely one of them.

Top 4 seeds isn't what we are talking about.  We are talking about winning 6 games in the NCAA tournament.  (At least, that is how I interpret Self's comments.)

And, the fact that good teams/programs sometimes shoot a lot of threes, and win, isn't the point.  Duke could probably win a lot of games by shooting nothing but hook shots, but that doesn't mean that that is the BEST way for them to win games (let alone six games in a row).

I think Self is just stating what is obvious to most people:  relying so heavily on three point shooting is less likely to result in a national championship than a team that pounds it inside more.  It would be different if we were talking about a league championship or a seven-game series.  But the NCAA tournament is one and done.

Just looking at National Champions, the numbers indicate that Self's philosophy is a good idea, though I'll still contend 35% 3PA% is a good idea for his current KU team, among other things.



Cool chart.  I hope you are right about Self's best option THIS YEAR being to let the three pointer fly.  Because that would mean that this team is not as much of a threat to win it all.  (Yes, I hate KU.)  It's sorta like a football team that airs it out on every play.  Teams that do this don't generally have the best team in the country, but these teams might have rationally decided to try to throw the ball and have some success rather than to pound the ball behind their overmatched offensive line and to punt every fourth play.  Good teams don't win because they run the ball a lot, they win because they CAN run the ball successfully.  KU having to rely on the three would be an admission that they can't line up and pound the ball behind their superior offensive line.  Self seems to think that they can pound the ball if they choose to, but I hope you are right that they cannot.