Author Topic: New To Investing Thread  (Read 327332 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20446
    • View Profile
New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3200 on: January 27, 2021, 05:21:11 PM »
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1354536220110577664

Are any Wall Streeters complaining?
Uh yeah. A good amount are making their “our sacred halls have been profaned” faces.

Offline kim carnes

  • chingon!
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 13551
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3201 on: January 27, 2021, 05:41:52 PM »
Ya score one for the people this time!

Offline wetwillie

  • goEMAW Poster of the WEEK
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 30246
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3202 on: January 27, 2021, 05:54:49 PM »
Ya score one for the people this time!

Black rock made like 3 Billion and some redditors got some scraps
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3203 on: January 27, 2021, 05:57:23 PM »
it's not clear to me how many people (or funds) have realized gains/losses.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline IPA4Me

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 6962
  • El Guapo
    • View Profile
    • Life Advice
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3204 on: January 27, 2021, 06:06:44 PM »

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3205 on: January 27, 2021, 06:30:56 PM »
i can't access the article here, but i suspect that the thesis expressed in these tweets is correct.  most of the paper gains will not be realized and those that are realized will mostly not have been funded by losses from the funds that were originally shorting the stock.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1354575914856820737
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline steve dave

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 85185
  • Romantic Fist Attachment
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3206 on: January 27, 2021, 06:42:55 PM »
sys....did you google "gamestop populist"?

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20446
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3207 on: January 27, 2021, 06:44:56 PM »
Does Josh Barro understand how options contracts work?

Offline michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 53676
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3208 on: January 27, 2021, 06:48:06 PM »
sys....did you google "gamestop populist"?

lol

Offline wetwillie

  • goEMAW Poster of the WEEK
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 30246
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3209 on: January 27, 2021, 06:50:30 PM »
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3210 on: January 27, 2021, 06:52:54 PM »
sys....did you google "gamestop populist"?

no, i follow barro.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline IPA4Me

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 6962
  • El Guapo
    • View Profile
    • Life Advice
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3211 on: January 27, 2021, 06:54:00 PM »
Dave has $1M riding. Prepare for a rocket ride.

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1354589235643363334?s=19

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk


Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3212 on: January 27, 2021, 06:56:18 PM »
Does Josh Barro understand how options contracts work?

what is it about much of the trading being in derivatives do you think falsifies his thesis?
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline steve dave

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 85185
  • Romantic Fist Attachment
    • View Profile

Offline chum1

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21894
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3214 on: January 27, 2021, 07:02:22 PM »
i can't access the article here, but i suspect that the thesis expressed in these tweets is correct.  most of the paper gains will not be realized and those that are realized will mostly not have been funded by losses from the funds that were originally shorting the stock.

Quote
Yes, some hedge funds lost money, and a lot of retail investors are up, for now. But they can't access those gains until they sell. When they sell, the price of GameStop will fall, and the retail investors who bought late will lose money because there's no fundamental reason for other people to buy in at such a high price.

And why should we assume the net losses on this price roller coaster will accrue to institutional investors? Some shorts got popped with the run-up in GameStop, but a fading, money-losing business with a sudden market cap over $20 billion for no good reason is surely attractive to new short sellers, who will gain as the new retail buyers lose.

If GameStop is overvalued by $20 billion right now, that's $20 billion of losses waiting to accrue, largely to ordinary investors who got caught up in a fad. And while some of the traders have gotten cheered for buying at the top by their internet friends, this is far from a desirable democratization of Wall Street — this is just a new way for regular people to lose their shirts.

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20446
    • View Profile
New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3215 on: January 27, 2021, 07:14:40 PM »
Does Josh Barro understand how options contracts work?

what is it about much of the trading being in derivatives do you think falsifies his thesis?
Well the people that used leverage to short the stock are the ones that are finding out how painful an infinite amount of risk and margin calls can be. Buying Calls, even with margin, have defined risk.

I also just find Barro’s persistent smugness really grating. I can’t read the article either, but the Reddit folks pulled off a really smart trade and I think they should get credit not huffing about “what it all means” or “froth” or whatever other tsk-tsking is going on. Good on Chamath and Jim Cramer for not doing that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 07:17:58 PM by Kat Kid »

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3216 on: January 27, 2021, 07:31:36 PM »
Well the people that used leverage to short the stock are the ones that are finding out how painful an infinite amount of risk and margin calls can be. Buying Calls, even with margin, have defined risk.

I also just find Barro’s persistent smugness really grating. I can’t read the article either, but the Reddit folks pulled off a really smart trade and I think they should get credit not huffing about “what it all means” or “froth” or whatever other tsk-tsking is going on. Good on Chamath and Jim Cramer for not doing that.

although it changes every 5 minutes, the last number is saw had gamestop's marketcap at 20 b.  i don't know what melvin and citron's losses are, but i think i've seen estimates at around 2-4 b.  gamestop, unless they can somehow use this weirdness to save themselves, is worth $0.

so even if all of the short sellers' losses end up being realized, there is something like another 16 b in losses that will come from other individuals.  those people aren't innocents either, and frankly deserve to lose money for piling into this ridiculous stunt, but as barro states, it's a weird thing to be cheerleading.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20446
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3217 on: January 27, 2021, 08:54:02 PM »
Well the people that used leverage to short the stock are the ones that are finding out how painful an infinite amount of risk and margin calls can be. Buying Calls, even with margin, have defined risk.

I also just find Barro’s persistent smugness really grating. I can’t read the article either, but the Reddit folks pulled off a really smart trade and I think they should get credit not huffing about “what it all means” or “froth” or whatever other tsk-tsking is going on. Good on Chamath and Jim Cramer for not doing that.

although it changes every 5 minutes, the last number is saw had gamestop's marketcap at 20 b.  i don't know what melvin and citron's losses are, but i think i've seen estimates at around 2-4 b.  gamestop, unless they can somehow use this weirdness to save themselves, is worth $0.

so even if all of the short sellers' losses end up being realized, there is something like another 16 b in losses that will come from other individuals.  those people aren't innocents either, and frankly deserve to lose money for piling into this ridiculous stunt, but as barro states, it's a weird thing to be cheerleading.

no it isn't. the fact you just assert it is worth $0 and then move on makes the rest of your argument dumb. Calling it a "ridiculous stunt" underlines the point that you and barro mostly just find this uncouth or something and thus worthy of disdain.


Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3218 on: January 27, 2021, 08:58:26 PM »
i mean, i'm not an expert in either bankruptcy or gamestop, but people that i think know what they're talking about believe the common stock has no value.

if you want to argue otherwise, i'm happy to listen.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20446
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3219 on: January 27, 2021, 09:14:38 PM »
It was speculation to think that the stock was going to $0, it was very speculative to come in as a short when short interest was 140% of the outstanding stock.  Obviously, the company isn't worth what the price is now, but the holiday season is its best quarter and it isn't like the thing was Hertz.  It was actually a deep value play kind of like AMC, ironically the kind of stock Buffet and Benjamin Graham used to love.

But GME with that much short interest and so few shares outstanding, was ripe for the picking and a bunch of people made money.  I definitely think some people will lose money from here, but retail people are not the group of people that have really lost money right now.

Offline TheHamburglar

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5729
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3220 on: January 27, 2021, 09:15:37 PM »
Does Josh Barro understand how options contracts work?

I maybe this guy has

https://twitter.com/rortybomb/status/1354497099895873543?s=21

At one point in my life I knew what that meant, which is crazy to me.
I got a guy on the other line about some white walls

Offline ben ji

  • Senior Moderator
  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 11565
  • Alot of people dont hit on an 18
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3221 on: January 27, 2021, 09:18:01 PM »
Well the people that used leverage to short the stock are the ones that are finding out how painful an infinite amount of risk and margin calls can be. Buying Calls, even with margin, have defined risk.

I also just find Barro’s persistent smugness really grating. I can’t read the article either, but the Reddit folks pulled off a really smart trade and I think they should get credit not huffing about “what it all means” or “froth” or whatever other tsk-tsking is going on. Good on Chamath and Jim Cramer for not doing that.

although it changes every 5 minutes, the last number is saw had gamestop's marketcap at 20 b.  i don't know what melvin and citron's losses are, but i think i've seen estimates at around 2-4 b.  gamestop, unless they can somehow use this weirdness to save themselves, is worth $0.

so even if all of the short sellers' losses end up being realized, there is something like another 16 b in losses that will come from other individuals.  those people aren't innocents either, and frankly deserve to lose money for piling into this ridiculous stunt, but as barro states, it's a weird thing to be cheerleading.

I think the main hedge fund that owns the short positions is down alot more than 2-4b. They got a loan/injection of capital of 2.75b yesterday morning and it was all wiped out by GAMESTONK gains that day.

But I've got most of my info from users on WSB like Thicc Dads Club and OpenPosition69 so who the hell knows. (Reason #1 I'm sitting this one out and sticking to my my index funds and small dabbling of long term individual stonks)
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 09:34:35 PM by ben ji »

Offline kim carnes

  • chingon!
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 13551
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3222 on: January 27, 2021, 09:28:50 PM »
It was speculation to think that the stock was going to $0, it was very speculative to come in as a short when short interest was 140% of the outstanding stock.  Obviously, the company isn't worth what the price is now, but the holiday season is its best quarter and it isn't like the thing was Hertz.  It was actually a deep value play kind of like AMC, ironically the kind of stock Buffet and Benjamin Graham used to love.

But GME with that much short interest and so few shares outstanding, was ripe for the picking and a bunch of people made money.  I definitely think some people will lose money from here, but retail people are not the group of people that have really lost money right now.

BofA had a $1.50 price target on it until recently.  It’s a brick and mortar chain that sells video games and has lost money in three straight quarters.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40475
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3223 on: January 27, 2021, 09:36:01 PM »
I think the main hedge fund that owns the short positions is down alot more than 2-4b. They got a loan/injection of capital of 2.75b yesterday morning and it was all wiped out by GAMESTONK gains that day.

according to their public comments, both citron and melvin closed their short positions earlier this week.  a third party estimate put total short losses at 5 b, so i think 2-4 billion is probably in the ballpark for citron and melvin.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20446
    • View Profile
Re: New To Investing Thread
« Reply #3224 on: January 27, 2021, 10:06:40 PM »
It was speculation to think that the stock was going to $0, it was very speculative to come in as a short when short interest was 140% of the outstanding stock.  Obviously, the company isn't worth what the price is now, but the holiday season is its best quarter and it isn't like the thing was Hertz.  It was actually a deep value play kind of like AMC, ironically the kind of stock Buffet and Benjamin Graham used to love.

But GME with that much short interest and so few shares outstanding, was ripe for the picking and a bunch of people made money.  I definitely think some people will lose money from here, but retail people are not the group of people that have really lost money right now.

BofA had a $1.50 price target on it until recently.  It’s a brick and mortar chain that sells video games and has lost money in three straight quarters.

I want to be clear, I don't think the stock at $300 is based on any sort of dcf analysis or future earnings growth. I also think characterizing it as teetering on the verge of filing for bankruptcy is not really accurate.