Help Steve Dave Build A House (NOW HELP HIM TAKE CARE OF IT)

[yoga-like_abana]

Honestly would be a great time to sell and rent for a year or two

[steve dave]

We're in the buyers market again. About to turn a $50K profit from this spot to the next. Problem is, we're either looking south or west to get the bang for the buck. It has me feeling old as f, but also excited about how far We've came. More depressed about how far away I will eventually be from all the things I love about KC tho (downtown), but I'm at home 90% of the time either way these days by working from home and the kid. Looking into Shawnee, Desoto, Leawood, and the Blue Valley distract. The market is crazy right now. Saw an amazing house today for over $10K of what I have in mind and i'm afraid if we competed for it, I'd be a hermit. It was amaze! Any advice?

That spread is like saying I am looking at Tulsa, Reno, San Francisco and the Northeast.

You need to get focused.

I know.  Also, the house we liked yesterday, went for 40K over the asking price.  This market!

Bubble will burst soon again just like 08.. This is the worst time to buy other than interest rates

I don’t know that I agree with this. At least the anything near what we saw in ‘08 part. WFH isn’t going back to pre-pandemic levels.


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[nicname]

Honestly would be a great time to sell and rent for a year or two

Was my thought but unsure about that actual numbers. SD, what type of market movement do you predict?

[yoga-like_abana]

We're in the buyers market again. About to turn a $50K profit from this spot to the next. Problem is, we're either looking south or west to get the bang for the buck. It has me feeling old as f, but also excited about how far We've came. More depressed about how far away I will eventually be from all the things I love about KC tho (downtown), but I'm at home 90% of the time either way these days by working from home and the kid. Looking into Shawnee, Desoto, Leawood, and the Blue Valley distract. The market is crazy right now. Saw an amazing house today for over $10K of what I have in mind and i'm afraid if we competed for it, I'd be a hermit. It was amaze! Any advice?

That spread is like saying I am looking at Tulsa, Reno, San Francisco and the Northeast.

You need to get focused.

I know.  Also, the house we liked yesterday, went for 40K over the asking price.  This market!

Bubble will burst soon again just like 08.. This is the worst time to buy other than interest rates

I don’t know that I agree with this. At least the anything near what we saw in ‘08 part. WFH isn’t going back to pre-pandemic levels.


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While I agree with that part build costs right now are at all time highs. There is not the shortage in lumber that there was last year due to shutdowns. Interest rates are low so new builds just keep going up and they will keep charging this astronomical prices as long as they can.  Lumber costs will eventually come back down to earth. It probably won't be as catastrophic as 08 but it will definitely happen. Shoot a deck that cost $950 in material in last year now costs roughly $2500

[steve dave]

We're in the buyers market again. About to turn a $50K profit from this spot to the next. Problem is, we're either looking south or west to get the bang for the buck. It has me feeling old as f, but also excited about how far We've came. More depressed about how far away I will eventually be from all the things I love about KC tho (downtown), but I'm at home 90% of the time either way these days by working from home and the kid. Looking into Shawnee, Desoto, Leawood, and the Blue Valley distract. The market is crazy right now. Saw an amazing house today for over $10K of what I have in mind and i'm afraid if we competed for it, I'd be a hermit. It was amaze! Any advice?

That spread is like saying I am looking at Tulsa, Reno, San Francisco and the Northeast.

You need to get focused.

I know.  Also, the house we liked yesterday, went for 40K over the asking price.  This market!

Bubble will burst soon again just like 08.. This is the worst time to buy other than interest rates

I don’t know that I agree with this. At least the anything near what we saw in ‘08 part. WFH isn’t going back to pre-pandemic levels.


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While I agree with that part build costs right now are at all time highs. There is not the shortage in lumber that there was last year due to shutdowns. Interest rates are low so new builds just keep going up and they will keep charging this astronomical prices as long as they can.  Lumber costs will eventually come back down to earth. It probably won't be as catastrophic as 08 but it will definitely happen. Shoot a deck that cost $950 in material in last year now costs roughly $2500

yeah, build costs will certainly come down. but I don't see it being that big in existing homes.

[yoga-like_abana]

I think once interest rates start raising (which they will) those prices are going to come down as well.  Less people will be able to afford and qualify for the homes going at premium prices.

[steve dave]

maybe. we shall see. good quick read on this topic.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/the-psychology-of-fighting-the-last-crash/

and podcast

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5RuaHREKIwEro78xmcsLjW?si=OxCd1HluS3G--i0_n69lUw

[KST8FAN]

Is there a help build a house on the farm thread?  Kids are gone and ready to cash out on the hot JoCo house market.  Do I buy a trailer or rent appt after selling and wait for lumber prices to come down?

Anyone with a good costing template for house building?  Is like our kitchen project get the estimates from home depot and then x2 after the wife adds multi changes?


Tom

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[steve dave]

My parents irl hire a local group of mennonites every time they build/remodel. This is not helpful information for you obviously. but they do an incredible job and what would take a normal carpenter like 2 months takes them like 2 years so pluses and minuses there.


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[star seed 7]

My aunt and uncle bought some Dallas exurb property and lived in the existing old farm house until their new compound was built (about 2 years). Now the old farm house is a guest house like 1/4 mile away so it's decently private.

Maybe try that Tom.

[KST8FAN]

Unlike SD we have demolished all the homestead houses on the farm(s).  House, barn, silos all gone.

Backhoe guy is dropping my water hydrant in at the shop barn upgrade so I could live out of the barn with a portable toilet.  I've got AC.

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[star seed 7]

There are a lot of dudes on surly who have built huge ranch home/toy barn hybrid metal buildings.

[yoga-like_abana]

Another thing to think of.. wonder what will come of commercial properties as well.

[steve dave]

Another thing to think of.. wonder what will come of commercial properties as well.

idea: we convert them to condos

[Stupid Fitz]

I think once interest rates start raising (which they will) those prices are going to come down as well.  Less people will be able to afford and qualify for the homes going at premium prices.

Yep, interest rates are heading up you guys......any day now......better refinance now..........yep, going up for sure soon.........10 years later.......yep, gotta go up sometime.

[pissclams]

Another thing to think of.. wonder what will come of commercial properties as well.

idea: we convert them to condos

or giant indoor laser tag coliseums

[Stupid Fitz]

Is there a help build a house on the farm thread?  Kids are gone and ready to cash out on the hot JoCo house market.  Do I buy a trailer or rent appt after selling and wait for lumber prices to come down?

Anyone with a good costing template for house building?  Is like our kitchen project get the estimates from home depot and then x2 after the wife adds multi changes?


Tom

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A farm seems like a good spot for a Yurt (sp).

[steve dave]

Farms are filthy with bugs and heat and wind and dirt and smells. Gotta hermetically seal your dwelling.


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[Stupid Fitz]

Farms are filthy with bugs and heat and wind and dirt and smells. Gotta hermetically seal your dwelling.


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Serious question. What % of current farm dwellings are hermetically sealed? less than 1%?

[wetwillie]

SD can you just go back to the office or have they kicked you out permanently?

[sys]

maybe. we shall see. good quick read on this topic.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/the-psychology-of-fighting-the-last-crash/

and podcast

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5RuaHREKIwEro78xmcsLjW?si=OxCd1HluS3G--i0_n69lUw

i'm on team sd here.  there is large housing deficit, the economy is booming, a demographic bulge is hitting home buying age, interest rates are low and we don't have either the housebuilding capacity or the governmental will to build a lot of new housing quickly.  house prices are going up for a while yet.


did see somewhere that some boomer houses are built in areas and sizes unappealing to millennials, so you might be able to get a decent price on one of those, but they're probably houses in areas and sizes that are unappealing to you.

[Spracne]

What's a Milly to do?? 

I was planning on purchasing a house (home) this year, but it sure does feel like we're at, or near, the top of a ridiculous cycle. But as noted, there's no guarantee it won't stay like this for another [X] year(s). Other than going back in time, what's a Milly in the city to do?

[steve dave]

SD can you just go back to the office or have they kicked you out permanently?

I can if I want. I only have two employees here and the others are in KC. My Omaha employees both work from home but we go into the office to mess around from time to time. The KC ones work like 50/50 office/home but they can do 100% home if they want. Or 100% office. It’s flexible AF. But, I also own this budget and if I say I’m in the office 100% that’s out of my budget and it would blow you away what my expense allocation is for a full time office. Same with employees.

Also in normal times I’m flying around to exotic locales (Chicago, New York, Chicago, New York, Chicago, you name it really) about 25% of the time.


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[steve dave]

What's a Milly to do?? 

I was planning on purchasing a house (home) this year, but it sure does feel like we're at, or near, the top of a ridiculous cycle. But as noted, there's no guarantee it won't stay like this for another [X] year(s). Other than going back in time, what's a Milly in the city to do?

I would not try to time it. If you want a place assume the market value is what it’s going to be IMO. A lot of people are going to try to “wait this out” and do a lot of waiting if I’m guessing.


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[chum1]

It's one of the most important purchases you make. It's long term. There's only one (at a time, at least). Don't worry about trying to get a deal. Get what you want.