Would the military still have the weapons they have today? Would everything else be exactly as it is now, just without the guns? If so, no. I believe the trends we see in violence would be identical and we would be talking about some other way to restrict mayhem. The conversation would at least probably be on the right track in my opinion.
Yeah I meant it as everything would be the same as now minus more powerful weapons for civilians. I think I agree with you overall, although mass killings would be significantly harder to pull off, IMO. It's an interesting thought experiment.
I go back and forth because I truly see no necessity for civilian gun ownership in a developed society, but I understand there is no way that all of the guns are going away. I don't think you would see much difference in violence if you successfully took away all the assault weapons/high capacity magazines/more powerful killing machines/handguns/whatever.