I liked the deal until I saw how much money he was owed.
Take it away Fangraphs!
The Royals are now on the hook for about $20 million in 2013 to Ervin Santana and Jeff Francoeur. Optimistically, you might think those two can give you +3 wins, maybe +4. The Royals total payroll in 2012 was $64 million. You just can’t spend 1/3 of your payroll on less than five wins and compete unless your payroll is enormous. And even if it is enormous, there are almost certainly better ways to spend $20 million.
Honestly I'm really not concerned about the money. IF they non-tender Hoch combined with declining Soria's option that pretty much covers Santana's salary so the total payroll would be about the same. Since no one else is in line for a significant raise through arbitration as it stands right now the Royal's payroll for next year is still probably well under $70 mil. If Glass and Moore stay true to their words about a willingness to increase payroll there should still be plenty of cash to bring back Guthrie as well as make a play for some of the other FA's who have been talked about as possibilities.
I was pretty
about the deal when I first heard about it because ESPN radio was being dicks on my way home from work and kept saying "for a minor leaguer". Once I found out it was some scrub whose upside is a loogy I liked it. At worst he's still a slight improvement over last years rotation. At best he could be the best pitcher to wear a Royals uniform since Meche's pre-injury season.
P.S. I know this is the Royals so what will actually happen is they keep Hoch, keep Volstad, overspend for somebody bad, let Guthrie walk (even though he'll end up signing a reasonable contract) and Santana will pull a Sanchez.
