The Chiefs and Chargers will both play Buffalo, Miami, Green Bay and Minnesota at home. Both teams will also face the Patriots, Jets, Bears and Lions on the road. This in addition to the home and road games in the AFC West, which are also the same. So, the Chiefs and Chargers will play the exact same teams at the exact same venues 12 times. They will also play each other twice. The only differences in the schedule is that the Chargers host the Ravens and travel to Jacksonville, while the Chiefs host the Steelers and travel to Indianapolis.
I'm not worried about the Raiders, who will once again be starting over.
The Broncos are still a few years away and have yet to pick a new head coach.
So, just like in 2010, it will come down to the Chiefs and Chargers. I expect Pioli to upgrade the roster and I assume the Chiefs will make strides from this season to next, no different than they made strides from 2009 to 2010. The Chargers, meanwhile, will be replacing Ron Rivera, their defensive coordinator, who is likely headed to Carolina. I'm sure he'll take some Chargers assistants with him.
While I agree that it will be difficult to finish 10-6 with a schedule that's much more difficult, I don't think it's out of the question to suggest that 9-7 could win the division.