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In Kansas City, we fast-forward past the long, grueling slog down the field that Andy Reid perpetrated on Chiefs fans. That was painful to watch, but it was a problem of tactics and execution, not arithmetic. Reid went so far as to say that right up until the onside kick, things went exactly as planned. Except the plan went off-rail one play before, when the Chiefs kicked the extra point — an error that is in some ways even more frustrating than the Packers’ because it’s so so simple and has been clear for so long: If you are down 14 and score a touchdown late in the game — where you are very likely to have only one more scoring opportunity, at most — you should go for two.5This doesn’t require any modeling, it requires just a little thought and a little more grade-school math.In a situation like the Chiefs’ — where there was only 1:13 remaining — it doesn’t matter that their chances of recovering an onside kick and scoring another touchdown are very, very small. We don’t forgo safety checks on airplanes because the odds of a crash are small, and you shouldn’t ignore basic win maximization just because it will only earn you the occasional extra win.The key is to assume you get the second touchdown (and in K.C.’s case, recover the onside kick, but the logic is the same when you have time to kick off and go for a defensive stop) — because if you don’t, it doesn’t matter what you do now, you lose. Once that little leap is taken, this all flows from a little multiplication.If you kick an extra point, you are essentially playing to make two extra points and win in overtime.6As above, let’s use league averages. Assume a 94.3 percent chance of making each extra point and a 45.5 percent chance of winning on the road in in overtime.Your chances of winning this way are 94.3 percent * 94.3 percent * 45.5 percent = 40.4 percent.7 Add in the small chance that you’ll miss the extra point but then make up for it with a successful 2-point attempt, and your overall chances of winning with this strategy are 41.7 percent (of the times that you get the second touchdown).Now, if you go for two and make it (which you should about 47.2 percent of the time), you can win by kicking an extra point (94.3 percent) after your second TD, or (much less frequently) by missing your extra point but still winning in overtime. If you go for two and don’t make it (which will happen 52.8 percent of the time), you can still win by going for two again (47.2 percent) and making it and then winning in overtime.Chances of making 2-point conversion and XP: 44.5 percentChances of making 2-point conversion, missing XP and winning in OT anyway: 1.2 percentChances of missing 2-point conversion, making second attempt and winning in OT anyway: 11.3 percentCombined chances of winning: 57.1 percent (of the times that you get the second touchdown)I won’t bother going into detail trying to find perfect assumptions as I did above, because this calculation isn’t close enough for them to be necessary. Even if you assume a 50 percent chance of winning in overtime and a 100 percent chance of making your extra points, you still only need around a 38.5 percent chance of making each 2-point conversion (which would be absolutely terrible) to make going for it the better play.Despite its obvious correctness, this is pretty much never done in the NFL. The only case of a coach going for two after a touchdown brought the team within 8 points in the fourth quarter since 2001 was Brian Billick with the Baltimore Ravens in 2001. Further back is murkier, though according to Football Perspective, the only time a team trailing by 14 has ever scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to six in the modern era was the 1994 Cleveland Browns — coached by none other than Bill Belichick.
in the end, EMAW will always win.
Quote from: WackyCat08 on January 13, 2016, 11:44:13 AMQuote from: Cartierfor3 on January 13, 2016, 11:25:52 AMWC, what's your eyebrow shaving situation if we lose on SaturdayLast week I was 99% confident. This week, i'm about 67% confident. 99% is easy to bet on the eyebrows. 67% is a different story. We'll need to come up with something less drastic. It is Tom rough ridin' Brady for Christ sakes.I've decided what I'll do. If we lose this game, i'll grow my nose hairs out for a month! These aren't average nose hairs either, folks!
Quote from: Cartierfor3 on January 13, 2016, 11:25:52 AMWC, what's your eyebrow shaving situation if we lose on SaturdayLast week I was 99% confident. This week, i'm about 67% confident. 99% is easy to bet on the eyebrows. 67% is a different story. We'll need to come up with something less drastic. It is Tom rough ridin' Brady for Christ sakes.
WC, what's your eyebrow shaving situation if we lose on Saturday
I'm a plucker.
Quote from: WackyCat08 on January 21, 2016, 03:25:40 PMI'm a plucker. All at once via wax is sooooo much better.
http://deadline.com/2016/01/e-orders-dating-competition-series-nfl-star-travis-kelce-1201692270/
Tries too hard to be gronk.Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk
This is going to provide some great soup clipsSent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Quote from: Cire on January 29, 2016, 12:24:33 PMThis is going to provide some great soup clipsSent from my iPad using TapatalkHate to break the news to you, but The Soup is cancelled and is no longer on TV.
https://twitter.com/jonmachota/status/694591989233250305
Just what this team needs, a cancer in the locker room.
