Author Topic: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread  (Read 17803 times)

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Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #100 on: July 28, 2022, 07:22:19 AM »
GDP Day! Can't wait to confidently and loudly proclaim that WE ARE BY DEFINITION IN/NOT IN A RECESSION!

 :excited:

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #101 on: July 28, 2022, 07:32:20 AM »
down 0.9%. Pretty shitty!

initial jobless claims 256K which is a shade higher than estimate. previous revised to 261k so I guess an improvement. continuing claims 1.359m. pretty good.

personal consumption +1.0%. pretty pud.

real disposable income fell 0.5%, higher nominal but inflation dragged it down.

saving rate 5.2% down from 5.6%.

I can't imagine calling a recession while we are at full employment but I'm guessing the next print shows those employment numbers worsening quite a bit and the other stuff falling off a cliff. I bet they eventually call it starting 3rd quarter or so.


Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #102 on: July 28, 2022, 07:44:03 AM »
CUT RATES NOW JEROME YOU COWARD!


Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #103 on: July 28, 2022, 07:58:12 AM »
GDP Day! Can't wait to confidently and loudly proclaim that WE ARE BY DEFINITION IN/NOT IN A RECESSION!

 :excited:

https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1552639128998641664

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #104 on: July 28, 2022, 09:48:25 AM »
I feel like that sums things up pretty well while still somehow coming across as wrong due to the attitude.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #105 on: July 28, 2022, 09:53:51 AM »
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #106 on: July 28, 2022, 09:56:14 AM »
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.

agreed

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #107 on: July 28, 2022, 09:56:31 AM »
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.

What is going to happen to the housing market
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #108 on: July 28, 2022, 10:34:56 AM »
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.

What is going to happen to the housing market
Well, mortgage rates are coming down some. I think the market cools considerably and prices flatten out nationwide. I don’t think we see any give backs on valuations outside of the markets that got super heated since house prices are sticky AF.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #109 on: July 28, 2022, 11:03:58 AM »
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #110 on: July 28, 2022, 11:38:48 AM »
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.
Does the involvement of institutional buyers indicate a bunch of houses will pop back on the market after it cools, or is the thought that these folks are primarily focused on renting?

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #111 on: July 28, 2022, 11:45:07 AM »

The sentiment seems to be that inventory is gone forever, it has become a long term hold.
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Offline KITNfury

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #112 on: July 28, 2022, 12:44:13 PM »
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.
I read that it was 13%.

I agree with SD, at most I see a flattening, but probably nothing like a crash. It is, and has been, a supply/demand issue. Rates could get high enough to significantly drop the prices, but I don't think that will happen.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is on that. But my property values are largely based on NOI, and I definitely don't see the desire for cashflow, tax savings, equity growth, and an inflation hedge going away any time soon.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #113 on: July 28, 2022, 01:56:59 PM »
It will be interesting to see the micro effects of states like California losing huge numbers of citizens and states like Texas and Florida gaining them. I imagine places like Austin TX are white hot right now.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #114 on: July 29, 2022, 07:42:35 AM »
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552996442146570240

Core PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed always talks about and targets 2%. Just posted 4.8% y/y.

Eurozone inflation at 8.9%.

everything is red hot


Offline Katpappy

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #115 on: July 29, 2022, 04:16:22 PM »
It will be interesting to see the micro effects of states like California losing huge numbers of citizens and states like Texas and Florida gaining them. I imagine places like Austin TX are white hot right now.

I can tell you my nephew sold his house in Austin for over the asking price within three days.  That was in November of last year.
Hot time in Kat town tonight.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #116 on: July 29, 2022, 04:44:01 PM »
Katdaddy, thank you for that timely channel check

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #117 on: July 29, 2022, 04:50:35 PM »
My mom put her house in California on the market last month and has not sold it yet  :ohno:
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #118 on: July 29, 2022, 05:08:50 PM »
My mom put her house in California on the market last month and has not sold it yet  :ohno:

Which state is she moving to
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Offline Tobias

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #119 on: July 29, 2022, 08:15:42 PM »
baja california sur, iirc

Offline sys

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"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #121 on: July 31, 2022, 05:55:49 PM »
Was bound to come but still feels nice to be here


Offline wetwillie

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #123 on: August 01, 2022, 10:00:19 AM »
This feels like good news, please confirm.
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Offline bucket

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #124 on: August 01, 2022, 10:11:17 AM »
Bought into INTC this morning.