goemaw.com
General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: steve dave on October 01, 2021, 08:22:46 PM
-
Master thread to discuss all the stuff in the title. Didn't feel like this was for the beginning investor thread and I don't know that we have an alternate.
it's wild that these people can trade on this stuff while Martha Stewart goes to jail for a year for whatever she did.
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1444105344267874305
-
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
dbt's going to secret bitcoin meetings and not telling us anything :shakesfist:
-
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
dbt's going to secret bitcoin meetings and not telling us anything :shakesfist:
Yeah, same, but this is steve dave's thread, so both of you need to quit yer Yellen.
-
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
dbt's going to secret bitcoin meetings and not telling us anything :shakesfist:
Yeah, same, but this is steve dave's thread, so both of you need to quit yer Yellen.
No need to go getting all political on me
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
There are people that do that from what I understand
-
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
-
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
that is wild
I assume the revisions will still be big and these numbers are going to look less weird over time as they are revised.
-
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
It''s still a hot hot jobs market and appears wages are up 4.7% YOY.
-
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
It''s still a hot hot jobs market and appears wages are up 4.7% YOY.
there are 10.6m job openings as well. don't touch this economy, you'll burn the crap out of your finger.
-
Love this and I give this thread a negative 47 billion percent chance of not getting political.
-
+7% CPI yoy
:sdeek:
-
What did people think was going to happen in this white hot economy?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Starting to look like Biden lost the game of musical chairs.
-
it's all spiraling out of control
-
Well, well, well. :dubious:
-
Jan jobs +467k :eek:
wages +0.7% month over month :eek:
Fed's going to drop the hammer
-
good news = bad news for stonks imo
-
good news = bad news for stonks imo
oh for sure. stonks gonna stink. Fed hammer inbound.
-
We haven’t really had a strong economy paired with bad stock market in my adult life that I recall. Feels weird.
-
Well, fed hammer apparently priced in! Or not! Who the eff knows apparently!
-
Jerome raised his fifty basis point hand and stonks just pointed to their own chin daring him to do it! Wow!
-
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?
-
I think that is a better question for the investment thread, but my advice is to ignore all economic and market news and put everything in an S&P 500 index fund. Go live your life and be free! go cats
-
Most of us (me included) have no reason to follow market news. SD and KK truly enjoy it as a hobby. If that ain’t you, stay the eff away from it as much as you can. I try to know just barely enough for small parts of my job.
-
Also, never take steve dave's advice when it comes to crypto.
-
Agree with Pete. Everyone has their own thing. I was obsessed with understanding tax advantaged accounts but don’t care at all about picking the right investments. Some people are the opposite, and some are into other kinks like crypto or real estate.
All that is to say, if you just want to sit back and grow your money, then I wouldn’t mess around with guessing and go with whatever low fee S&P 500 fund is available through your broker.
-
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?
as you get older you'll find yourself with different interests and desires. part of that for me was caring less about sports and more about things like finding new and exciting ways to lose money. It's a real rush to see one of your positions rip 20% in a day bringing your total return to -50%. You can't replicate that with drugs or sex or sports or consistent 7% long term returns.
-
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?
as you get older you'll find yourself with different interests and desires. part of that for me was caring less about sports and more about things like finding new and exciting ways to lose money. It's a real rush to see one of your positions rip 20% in a day bringing your total return to -50%. You can't replicate that with drugs or sex or sports or consistent 7% long term returns.
The FB/AMZN rollercoaster ride was a wild one.
-
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?
I think two great books to read to find out if you are interested in this stuff are:
1) Morgan Housel’s excellent “Psychology of Money”
2) “How I invest my money” by Josh Brown and Brian Portnoy
There are a number of podcasts I listen to about Econ/the markets and you can watch CNBC for fun, but those two books will let you know if you want to know more or not.
I also pay a pretty exorbitant amount for a subscription to the financial times which is a newspaper that I think is one of the best in the world, talks to you like an adult and really clearly clues you in to what people that move markets think. I would get a subscription to that or the WSJ and if you like those then you are on your way. You will develop a general sense of ideas about macroeconomic trends, and then you will have some convictions and try to put them
In to practice with money.
Or you could just try to hop on Reddit/wsb and try to figure out what the hell people there are doing and ride a wave (this will not work well).
Or the simplest (and probably best advice) is just buy a few stocks of things you know. For most people this will skew heavily to consumer goods and tech, but guess what that is most of our economy. If you have any notions about players in your field, you can express a view by buying their stock or trying to figure out some emerging trend.
I look at it as a hobby and a mostly fulfilling one that has made me money (above s&p) 2/3 years I’ve done it. I don’t know if I will always do it, but for now it is fun.
-
good post kk. and also good post from pete before.
-
also lester, if you come in good faith for advice to this message board I swear you'll get better responses back in good faith and with good information than you'd get almost anywhere on the planet. this is irl a finely curated group of good, smart AF, successful people that somehow came out of KSU roots. hit up the investing thread and I'll teach you how to lose money like the best. that is my personal commitment to you.
-
I also pay a pretty exorbitant amount for a subscription to the financial times which is a newspaper that I think is one of the best in the world, talks to you like an adult and really clearly clues you in to what people that move markets think. I would get a subscription to that or the WSJ.
dunno if it will help anyone make money, but i 2nd the eff out of this. ft is the best newspaper in the world.
-
Fortean Times is legit.
-
Lester, please don’t feel like you have to engage in any way with the shitty FT like these rubes. You can, but it’s just to make yourself feel like a big shot. Which is obviously effective.
-
FT is $69/month??? Invest that instead!!!
-
My strategy has been to use the money I saved not subscribing to FT and spend it on booze that I use to ride out the lows of the S&P 500.
-
FT is $69/month??? Invest that instead!!!
I get a discount.
-
Post your login info coward!
-
Is 7.5% inflation good?
-
Is 7.5% inflation good?
I vote no.
-
The Fed is so far behind the curve. They should have started increasing in quarter point increments two meetings ago and at the very least, raised the fed funds rate 25 points last meeting. Now we have to wait until the middle of March before they do anything
The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.
-
Is 7.5% inflation good?
"Somebody is always winning, somebody is always losing."
-me
-
also lester, if you come in good faith for advice to this message board I swear you'll get better responses back in good faith and with good information than you'd get almost anywhere on the planet. this is irl a finely curated group of good, smart AF, successful people that somehow came out of KSU roots. hit up the investing thread and I'll teach you how to lose money like the best. that is my personal commitment to you.
This is so true. I mean, most of us act like a bunch of dumbasses and joke 99% of the time, but I get and have hopefully given some pretty good advice on a variety of topics. I prob wouldn't have predicted this back when I passed out at KJs.
-
The Fed is so far behind the curve. They should have started increasing in quarter point increments two meetings ago and at the very least, raised the fed funds rate 25 points last meeting. Now we have to wait until the middle of March before they do anything
The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.
Do you think that they should have started tapering the asset purchases earlier? The part that is confusing to me as someone that is not an expert is why they are trying to raise rates 50 points before they even slowed the asset purchases.
-
Is 7.5% inflation good?
"Somebody is always winning, somebody is always losing."
-me
lol.
-
lmao
https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1491934151880196155
-
Steve Dave what’s going to happen when the fed does whatever people are worried they will do. Also how do I profit from it.
-
Steve Dave what’s going to happen when the fed does whatever people are worried they will do. Also how do I profit from it.
It’s all smoke and mirrors. Gives people something to talk about.
But if you want to OT talk investing thread the NAS and S&P both have real gnarly head and shoulders charts going on. (if you talk to technical chart dorkstores that is not good).
-
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLQSEjKXwAQQQim?format=png&name=medium
OMG
-
The Fed is so far behind the curve. They should have started increasing in quarter point increments two meetings ago and at the very least, raised the fed funds rate 25 points last meeting. Now we have to wait until the middle of March before they do anything
The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.
Do you think that they should have started tapering the asset purchases earlier? The part that is confusing to me as someone that is not an expert is why they are trying to raise rates 50 points before they even slowed the asset purchases.
Yes, they should have started tapering earlier. I am a lot more hawkish than the average Fed governor/district bank president. I think they should have started tapering 6-9 months ago and started raising rates 3-6 months ago.
I don't think they should start raising the fed funds rate before they start tapering asset purchases, though I think they could start raising their target for the fed funds rate as they are winding down tapering. As it is, tapering should be complete in March, so there is no reason they couldn't have started increasing the target for the fed funds rate at the January meeting.
-
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.
thread
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1509871145897676810
-
April is historically the best of all months for the markets, up 15 out of every 16, according to veteran chartist Larry Williams. His research suggests the current market is in a good zone to go higher.
Let's keep the rally going!
-
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.
thread
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1509871145897676810
Wage gains = 5.6%
Inflation = 7.9%
How is this good?
-
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?
-
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.
thread
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1509871145897676810
Wage gains = 5.6%
Inflation = 7.9%
How is this good?
Inflation and every other negative economic thing that is happening is a byproduct of getting rid of the salt deduction
-
Inflation and every other negative economic thing that is happening is a byproduct of getting rid of the salt deduction
worth it, imo.
-
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html
White hot economy.
Transitory inflation.
-
there's some weird crap going on.
-
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/economy/inflation-worker-compensation/index.html
Inflation spurs record decline in workers' wages and benefits
White hot economy.
-
Headline inflation in April was 1%, and 8.6% over the year.
Core inflation was up +0.6% in the month and +6.0% over the year.
:sdeek:
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/nrXif9YExO9EI/giphy.gif)
-
We're so mumped
-
eff it, let’s go 75 basis points next week. You know what! Round that SOB up to a big fat 100.
-
Welp, good counterpoint
https://twitter.com/jturek18/status/1535313804455825408
-
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Current probabilities for rate hikes:
50 basis point hike: 3.9%
75 basis point hike: 96.1%
-
They are for sure going 75. They were very savvy leaking it the other day so they didn’t catch anyone off guard. My guess is 75bps 3x.
-
The current probabilities from the same site for rates for the September 21 meeting are:
2.25-2.50%: 0.3%
2.50-2.75%: 10.3%
2.75-3.00%: 63.9%
3.00-3.25%: 25.5%.
The current target rate is 0.75-1.00%. The above percentages indicate three 75 basis point hikes is very much possible. The 2.75-3.00% range would be two 75 point hikes and one 50 point hike.
-
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?
Like pre-1980s (just guessing)
-
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?
Like pre-1980s (just guessing)
You don't have to go back anywhere close to that far for median usual real weekly earnings to outpace inflation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q#0
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/2a7e64f0f136ae4df6f45abe65c985a5.jpg)
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/2a7e64f0f136ae4df6f45abe65c985a5.jpg)
I almost want inflation to get bad enough (but not really) to see a 100 basis point hike.
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/2a7e64f0f136ae4df6f45abe65c985a5.jpg)
I almost want inflation to get bad enough (but not really) to see a 100 basis point hike.
Missed it by a hair
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Let’s do next time to just flex
-
Jobs beat 372k v. 265k expected. Wage gains met at 5.1% v. 5.0% expected. Unemployment steady and fully employed at 3.6%. Certainly not recession'y numbers. GDP will probably show otherwise tho. Weird time we are living in.
-
Jobs beat 372k v. 265k expected. Wage gains met at 5.1% v. 5.0% expected. Unemployment steady and fully employed at 3.6%. Certainly not recession'y numbers. GDP will probably show otherwise tho. Weird time we are living in.
Nothing really makes sense right now. :dunno:
-
This financial advisor guy who keeps calling me every few months and I keep telling him I'm not interested called me yesterday and said he thinks we're headed for a depression, not a recession. I don't really think he's very smart, though, so take it FWIW.
-
my pet hypothesis is that some of that pandemic productivity gains were just unsustainably not doing stuff and now some of the job growth wo gdp growth is having to hire people to do that stuff again.
-
my pet hypothesis is that some of that pandemic productivity gains were just unsustainably not doing stuff and now some of the job growth wo gdp growth is having to hire people to do that stuff again.
That makes a lot of sense tbh
https://twitter.com/lizannsonders/status/1545388088477859842
-
This financial advisor guy who keeps calling me every few months and I keep telling him I'm not interested called me yesterday and said he thinks we're headed for a depression, not a recession. I don't really think he's very smart, though, so take it FWIW.
Yeah, from the extremely limited amount of information I have about him I’m 100% certain he’s not very smart.
-
Inflation gtfoomf
https://twitter.com/wertwhile/status/1546908996493254663
-
This financial advisor guy who keeps calling me every few months and I keep telling him I'm not interested called me yesterday and said he thinks we're headed for a depression, not a recession. I don't really think he's very smart, though, so take it FWIW.
I'm not a very good sales person, but i'm not sure its a great strategy for an FA to tell people he/she wants money from that they will lose all of said money very soon if they give it to him/her.
-
Inflation gtfoomf
https://twitter.com/wertwhile/status/1546908996493254663
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1546854653379371009
-
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
-
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
stevedave's guy, Jim Cramer said this was the best hedge for tech so I was thinking about doing the same. I didn't realize how much oil prices had fallen over the last month.
-
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
i think that will work well for you.
-
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.
-
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.
:thumbs:
-
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
stevedave's guy, Jim Cramer said this was the best hedge for tech so I was thinking about doing the same. I didn't realize how much oil prices had fallen over the last month.
he's like the opposite of my guy but I know what you mean
-
We getting a 9%+ today?
-
Headline CPI +1.3%
-
9.1% yoy !!!!
I think maybe the new record in my lifetime. Let’s get to 10% next month!
-
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.
Way more people are traveling
-
9.1% yoy !!!!
I think maybe the new record in my lifetime. Let’s get to 10% next month!
Great squawk box segment as a result! Santelli had steam coming out of his ears!
-
Bank of Canada went a full point. Do it Jerome, you coward!
-
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.
Way more people are traveling
That is a part of it.
Higher transportation costs (gas, diesel, airfare) are a bigger part of it. The out of control inflation is using up a lot of people's discretionary income and putting a lot of people on edge.
-
Broke bastards shouldn't be spending like they are rich.@wackybrag
-
CME Fed Watch probability for a 100 bp hike is currently 83.3%.
-
CME Fed Watch probability for a 100 bp hike is currently 83.3%.
We did it folks
-
I feel like investing in a company that manufactures A/C units, probably split units, and that has distribution channels in Europe would be a good bet at the moment. Anyone know of companies in this space?
-
I feel like investing in a company that manufactures A/C units, probably split units, and that has distribution channels in Europe would be a good bet at the moment. Anyone know of companies in this space?
mitsubishi/panasonic/hitachi
ELUXY
-
GDP Day! Can't wait to confidently and loudly proclaim that WE ARE BY DEFINITION IN/NOT IN A RECESSION!
:excited:
-
down 0.9%. Pretty shitty!
initial jobless claims 256K which is a shade higher than estimate. previous revised to 261k so I guess an improvement. continuing claims 1.359m. pretty good.
personal consumption +1.0%. pretty pud.
real disposable income fell 0.5%, higher nominal but inflation dragged it down.
saving rate 5.2% down from 5.6%.
I can't imagine calling a recession while we are at full employment but I'm guessing the next print shows those employment numbers worsening quite a bit and the other stuff falling off a cliff. I bet they eventually call it starting 3rd quarter or so.
-
CUT RATES NOW JEROME YOU COWARD!
(https://i.imgflip.com/6o6dsi.jpg)
-
GDP Day! Can't wait to confidently and loudly proclaim that WE ARE BY DEFINITION IN/NOT IN A RECESSION!
:excited:
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1552639128998641664
-
I feel like that sums things up pretty well while still somehow coming across as wrong due to the attitude.
-
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
-
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
agreed
-
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
What is going to happen to the housing market
-
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
What is going to happen to the housing market
Well, mortgage rates are coming down some. I think the market cools considerably and prices flatten out nationwide. I don’t think we see any give backs on valuations outside of the markets that got super heated since house prices are sticky AF.
-
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.
-
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.
Does the involvement of institutional buyers indicate a bunch of houses will pop back on the market after it cools, or is the thought that these folks are primarily focused on renting?
-
The sentiment seems to be that inventory is gone forever, it has become a long term hold.
-
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.
I read that it was 13%.
I agree with SD, at most I see a flattening, but probably nothing like a crash. It is, and has been, a supply/demand issue. Rates could get high enough to significantly drop the prices, but I don't think that will happen.
I'm putting my money where my mouth is on that. But my property values are largely based on NOI, and I definitely don't see the desire for cashflow, tax savings, equity growth, and an inflation hedge going away any time soon.
-
It will be interesting to see the micro effects of states like California losing huge numbers of citizens and states like Texas and Florida gaining them. I imagine places like Austin TX are white hot right now.
-
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552996442146570240
Core PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed always talks about and targets 2%. Just posted 4.8% y/y.
Eurozone inflation at 8.9%.
everything is red hot
(https://c.tenor.com/PEDzvMlrdi0AAAAC/fire.gif)
-
It will be interesting to see the micro effects of states like California losing huge numbers of citizens and states like Texas and Florida gaining them. I imagine places like Austin TX are white hot right now.
I can tell you my nephew sold his house in Austin for over the asking price within three days. That was in November of last year.
-
Katdaddy, thank you for that timely channel check
-
My mom put her house in California on the market last month and has not sold it yet :ohno:
-
My mom put her house in California on the market last month and has not sold it yet :ohno:
Which state is she moving to
-
baja california sur, iirc
-
:surprised:
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1553873344038043649
-
Was bound to come but still feels nice to be here
-
:surprised:
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1553873344038043649
(https://i.imgflip.com/6okmus.jpg)
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1554116028828876800
-
This feels like good news, please confirm.
-
Bought into INTC this morning.
-
This feels like good news, please confirm.
it was inevitable. I'm personally surprised it is looking like such a snapback though. It's good in that extreme inflation is bad. but we're going to see reaction in other areas that are seen as not good. also inevitable.
-
my uninformed ass just thinks things are very weird and unpredictable right now
-
my uninformed ass just thinks things are very weird and unpredictable right now
https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1554081504287866880
Mohamed is a good follow. I think the main point to stress is that "the market is not the economy." The question is whether this is a relief rally or not, and a lot of people are betting on the bear market being over and the market bottoming in June.
-
Don’t get Mo started on the Jets!
-
Don’t get Mo started on the Jets!
He likes his sports.
-
depending on my mood i either find it mildly amusing or extremely annoying when good ol' tom keene wastes half of every interview trying force guests to offer milquetoast sports takes (boston and ny only).
-
depending on my mood i either find it mildly amusing or extremely annoying when good ol' tom keene wastes half of every interview trying force guests to offer milquetoast sports takes (boston and ny only).
Kernan talks Jets with Mo for about 1/5 of each time he’s on (like twice a week).
-
el erian used to be a bloomberg guy, wonder why he switched teams.
-
Sort of on this topic probably the only daily email thing I have ever been able to recommend is the Bloomy 5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day.
-
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html
Payroll +528,000 jobs
-
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html
Payroll +528,000 jobs
Incredible. I still think odds of recession are high but the odds of a “soft landing” are not zero and I would have said dang near zero not long ago. Also once service and leisure jobs get done ramping we will crest and start losing.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
if the next inflation number comes down Jay Powell is about to start endzone dancing
-
if the next inflation number comes down Jay Powell is about to start endzone dancing
deservedly so
-
Joe Weisenthal just tossed it up, get ready for J Powell to hit the whoah
https://twitter.com/lil_black4/status/1113846897347911682?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1113846897347911682%7Ctwgr%5E995672841a391c64da16ae01652acf19e2474148%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2Farticle%2Fhit-the-woah-challenge
-
if the next inflation number comes down Jay Powell is about to start endzone dancing
deservedly so
Will spike that ball in the endzone
-
If we get out of this without a recession, or even just a minor one, it's a huge, huge win.
-
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
-
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
-
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
That tweet thread agrees with my interpretation of today’s numbers as far as I can tell (disclaimer: I’m a rough ridin' moron and am usually missing something)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
That tweet thread agrees with my interpretation of today’s numbers as far as I can tell (disclaimer: I’m a rough ridin' moron and am usually missing something)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Are you everyone, though? Huh?
-
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
That tweet thread agrees with my interpretation of today’s numbers as far as I can tell (disclaimer: I’m a rough ridin' moron and am usually missing something)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Are you everyone, though? Huh?
FUUUUUUUUUUUUCK! >:-(
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
lower chance of recession, greater chance of a soft landing; powell happy.
-
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
lower chance of recession, greater chance of a soft landing; powell happy.
oh. yeah I guess I think a chance of a recession is less than 100% now though I still think it happens.
-
I think that twitter thread and many other inflation hawks are taking it for granted that the Fed must manufacture a recession to bring down inflation and that they themselves would were they J Powell. I think Powell and the rest are willing to let inflation run above 2% if it shows real signs of coming down.
The most frustrating part about the wage-price spiral people sounding the alarms is this chart here:
(https://imageio.forbes.com/blogs-images/timworstall/files/2016/10/wagescompensation-1200x1093.png?format=png&width=1200)
https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ (https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/)
When people like Larry Summers who didn't do nearly enough the last recession to help unemployment (and still were accused by many of causing rampant inflation! Which was absolutely wrong!) are still primarily worried about triggering a recession rather than waiting to see if supply can gear up without pulling down demand.
I think J Powell is going to go for it and I hope he Kerri Struggs the landing and then tells Larry Summers to eff off to Mars.
-
I think that twitter thread and many other inflation hawks are taking it for granted that the Fed must manufacture a recession to bring down inflation and that they themselves would were they J Powell. I think Powell and the rest are willing to let inflation run above 2% if it shows real signs of coming down.
The most frustrating part about the wage-price spiral people sounding the alarms is this chart here:
i think you're right that the fed delivering a kill shot is the most salient concern, but i think it's also true that there are just all sorts of conflicting signals and it's totally possible that the economy is going to take a dive regardless of what the fed does or doesn't do.
re. choosing between the dual mandates, i think it's relevant that since the first few months after it kicked up, inflation has been far outpacing wage growth, so it's not completely clear to me that giving inflation a little more room to run would be beneficial to wage earners.
-
initial jobless down to 250k which beat by a bit.
Philly Fed +6.2 which is wildly different than the giant negative Empire Fed number earlier this week.
moderately positive numbers all around :dunno:
-
So, Jerome had not nice things to say in Jackson Hole.
-
So, Jerome had not nice things to say in Jackson Hole.
I liked it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
he's going to CRUSH inflation and if you get crushed under his inflation crushing fist then SO BE IT!
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/8f549bf9fe7db3dfa8171bc60bdced1c.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
kick our ass, jerome.
-
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1564949993265430533
seems like an inflection point? keeping sawin' wood jerome!
-
+315k jobs added. basically right on consensus. 3.7% unemployed, we gotta pump these unemployment numbers up! labor participation rate matching its post covid high at 62.4, so that's going the right direction and probably the best news of this print.
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1565678546118483971
-
Not time to buy yet.
-
Not time to buy yet.
Because September is historically bad or because we need higher unemployment?!
-
Not time to buy yet.
Because September is historically bad or because we need higher unemployment?!
kk has a long and storied history of timing the market. Dumb luck? Maybe…MAYBE NOT!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
https://twitter.com/wavykins/status/1571985887558262784?s=46&t=87bpyNgqP9NIFvJshPI3xA
Lmao
-
:lol:
-
look at this fuckin' hero
https://twitter.com/boes_/status/1572691019774464001
-
https://twitter.com/claudia_sahm/status/1572910573154598913?s=21&t=HJqKdhXezQs9gK6JFWPB2w
some interesting
-
Folks, is Belarus the GOAT in economics?
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1578010838325157889
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Folks, is Belarus the GOAT in economics?
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1578010838325157889
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Great idea. If only our President was smart enough to just sign an order banning people from being poor.
-
Folks, is Belarus the GOAT in economics?
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1578010838325157889
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Real neck and neck with him and Erdogan who keeps cutting interest rates as a way to fix inflation.
-
i’m currently sitting in my econ 101 class taking notes but kind of falling asleep lmao
am I the first freshman who’s ever taken econ 101?
I heard it was for upperclassmen. i’ll probably get an A+?
-
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1579444943348957189
In predicting whether the S&P is more likely to go up 10% or down 10%, Mo thinks we're more likely to go up 10% before going down 10% albeit it sounds like he, unsurprisingly, thinks we're going to go down further, "if you give me +10 or -5 I'd hesitate to go with +10." That's more optimistic than I expected because I've heard people expecting the S&P to touch 3,000 by the end of the year.
-
bigly hawkish job report.
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1598671213198467073
-
remember when everyone was debating if we were in a recession or not?
JEROME GONNA DROP THE HAMMER!
-
CPI surprise miss. Inflation cool AF. Jerome, the hammer, put it down
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1602657299243343872
-
WHICH WAY WESTERN MAN!?
(https://i.imgflip.com/745l9f.jpg)
-
CPI surprise miss. Inflation cool AF. Jerome, the hammer, put it down
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1602657299243343872
Good to see inflation heading in the right direction. Core CPI is still being stubborn compared to the overall CPI.
-
Good job everyone.
-
another smoking jobs report +223k. still at full employment of ~3.5% and a 50 year low in unemployment if you go out like 12 decimal places.
got this candid shot of Jerome Powell reaction to the report.
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/5542568.jpg)
HAMMER GONNA GET DROPPED AGAIN.
-
Wage growth is softening, though.
-
Wage growth is softening, though.
Correct. That seems to be why the market jumped on Friday.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
CPI came in exactly in line with expectations
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1613528891192131585
BORING!
-
WHICH WAY WESTERN MAN!?
(https://i.imgflip.com/745l9f.jpg)
I would like to direct the panel's attention back to this good meme I made
-
Good meme
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Keep raising them
-
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/01/13/inflation-on-a-forward-looking-basis-is-low-says-whartons-jeremy-siegel.html
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230114/814e7320df31bb60000813966e45a925.jpg)
-
I'd be shocked if we didn't have two quarters of bad earnings reporting.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Next few weeks will be interesting for the broader market. SPY has been squeezing since October. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230114/55e3820004fc0e942dd0a7cad0053c46.jpg)
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Who's ready for a JPow kick in the market nuts tomorrow? What's your predicto for the S&P500 tomorrow?
I say data is flat and market runs for 30 minutes. Then Daddy Powell puts on the hawk mask. SPY drops to 396.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Y'all think this rally has legs? Soft landing bitches!
-
Y'all think this rally has legs? Soft landing bitches!
I do not
-
Holy crap that jobs beat! Lowest unemployment since 1969!
lmao
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230203/a5fa47ab1c765b9489dfb26e2d43c6e6.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
This economy is like the surface of the sun hot folks
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1621506954370682880?s=46&t=2lsSCSq9fua23FwCCd_jgw
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
I am enjoying the crap out of the company bonus pool funding reports. We are on a mid year FY, and when they did the budget it was a bit more doom and gloom from the economists. Nothing is slowing down for us, except maybe the dudes who work in mergers and acquisitions support. Everything else is humming right along.
-
remember when everyone was, like, "are we IN a recession or are we just about to be in a recession?" lmao
-
now everyone is, like, "are we going to do a soft landing or are we going to springboard off the trampoline and do a flip?"
-
remember when everyone was, like, "are we IN a recession or are we just about to be in a recession?" lmao
I do! I also remember dickheads saying "sorry no boat motors in stock, but maybe I got one in the back for like 20% extra." Same dickheads now are saying "bro, I got too many of these boat motors, please buy one from me!"
-
remember when everyone was, like, "are we IN a recession or are we just about to be in a recession?" lmao
I do! I also remember dickheads saying "sorry no boat motors in stock, but maybe I got one in the back for like 20% extra." Same dickheads now are saying "bro, I got too many of these boat motors, please buy one from me!"
was truly the golden era of sellin' motor boats
-
fed shoulda done 50.
-
You see, while the boat motor is just an anecdote, it is also everything!
-
fed shoulda done 50.
lmao if they try to do it next round. Jerome, "Well, you see, we mumped up. Now I must lob this grenade at you". doing a burnout in his camero and then slamming on the brakes and then immediately doing another burnout. but, like, opposite. you get the idea.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
A lot of used cars have come down quite a bit in price. I think used car prices are roughly 15% lower now than they were a year ago.
-
Good follow for industry stuff
https://twitter.com/guydealership/status/1620938797704945665
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Wait if it’s a good time to sell your car, is it also a bad time to buy a replacement?
-
Wait if it’s a good time to sell your car, is it also a bad time to buy a replacement?
Yeah. The real reason it's a good time to sell your car and buy another is that the jobs outlook indicates that interest rates are going to go up and stay high for awhile.
-
Hella short squeeze on Friday. Do we hold SPY 410 on Monday or retrace back to 405? Glad I'm a price action player. Draw me levels and play whatever happens. My current favorites are XOM, COIN, and SPY. Can usually get good movement daily from one of them.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Hella short squeeze on Friday. Do we hold SPY 410 on Monday or retrace back to 405? Glad I'm a price action player. Draw me levels and play whatever happens. My current favorites are XOM, COIN, and SPY. Can usually get good movement daily from one of them.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
wut
-
Hella short squeeze on Friday. Do we hold SPY 410 on Monday or retrace back to 405? Glad I'm a price action player. Draw me levels and play whatever happens. My current favorites are XOM, COIN, and SPY. Can usually get good movement daily from one of them.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
wut
$APPL. That run up was all a squeeze and short coverings. Shorts were covering and price kept going up. Once covers were done, bloop. Rejected right off $157.38 like clockwork. Then you get a little range trading before dropping down to next price level. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230205/0a3d276aa1dc144b27c5ff2ad126ef3b.jpg)
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1629122548909629443
-
https://twitter.com/ProfitsTaken/status/1629658641954484224?t=OxBeQto_1f4qGmZxZj1xmg&s=19
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
I'm getting more and more bearish. Going to increase my ETF shorts over the next week in the rollover.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Big player in sub prime used car business goes down.
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629517018222174214?t=fKkMTEu6rqEp7j5gTdrHyw&s=19
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
I'm getting more and more bearish. Going to increase my ETF shorts over the next week in the rollover.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
I think we're definitely going back down now that inflation appears to be sticky. Who could have foreseen that. I saw someone comment that January would mark market highs for the year. I'm not sure about that but I'll probably DCA more heavily late spring summer with a hope for a strong end to the year.
-
Big player in sub prime used car business goes down.
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629517018222174214?t=fKkMTEu6rqEp7j5gTdrHyw&s=19
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1629946643012542464?t=-L2lyVz0c1vVcCmTX0QbKA&s=19
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230307/e610031e2b59640dbf9340bf9e5aef7a.jpg)
-
How’s it looking guys?
-
We're teetering on a big downturn. Hopefully tomorrow's House hearing will be a bit dovish and we can rip a few points. I'm swinging option calls for SPX.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
:flush:
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
:flush:
Is this not what you were expecting?
-
JOBS STRONG!
Counterpoint, 3.6% unemployment and wage growth slowed.
:dunno:
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Think we’re getting 50bp
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Banks melting down because of contagion worry from SVB. Putting this here instead of investing thread because of Fed stuff.
https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1634208120468537344
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Banks melting down because of contagion worry from SVB. Putting this here instead of investing thread because of Fed stuff.
https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1634208120468537344
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I’m scooping up some financial services companies this morning. Not SIVB. Full disclosure: I’m an idiot with no idea of what I’m doing.
-
Think we’re getting 50bp
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think we’re getting 25bp
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Over the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
-
:flush:
Is this not what you were expecting?
Exactly as I've been expecting.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Over the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
8%
-
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
-
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
https://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=27413.msg2205296#msg2205296
-
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
Vanguard S&P. Also, don't read the crypto thread like ever.
-
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
Vanguard S&P. Also, don't read the crypto thread like ever.
Yeah if you don’t want to make major Jack it’s best to not read it.
-
Banks melting down because of contagion worry from SVB. Putting this here instead of investing thread because of Fed stuff.
https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1634208120468537344
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
lol, Kalshi email I just got
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230310/92ff373a58d89c6cc7881391f2a8f808.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Yeah I just got the same email lol
-
Riding these puts options like a wild man. Holy crap. We're printing today. Only regret is not sizing larger on entry.
-
Over the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
8%
Man, if you are right I am going to be delighted
-
Over the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
8%
Man, if you are right I am going to be delighted
I don’t bet against America Pete. Also I’m overly optimistic as a steady state so write that down.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
https://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/
-
https://twitter.com/mikeblack114/status/1634813381180895235?s=61&t=kHH-k8anwIfPUMhwWRaDiA
-
she used to work at mckinsey :lol:
I know it's petty but I love reading the dunk replies
-
yeah it’s pretty great
-
Used Honda Odysseys ain’t cheap
-
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
-
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
because of the way she's portraying herself
https://twitter.com/lcmichaelides/status/1634654752880447489
IMO getting significant VC money after a Duke MBA and working at McKinsey makes you part of the "tech elite". Living in Ohio doesn't change that
-
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
I would say the main reason is bc her business is a joke
-
But to be fair, that’s the case for probably 95% of startups.
-
But to be fair, that’s the case for probably 95% of startups.
Yes
They also "hustle" a lot
-
Look at this portfolio of one of their investors
https://www.mgv.vc/portfolio/
-
i’m a working mom who wants to pay $600 a month to an app that will help me manage my life.
-
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
I would say the main reason is bc her business is a joke
I’m not sure how you came to that conclusion from the twitter thread. Sounded like business was good and her payroll and working capital are frozen at the bank she chose to use.
-
her payroll and working capital are frozen at the bank she chose to use.
it'll be (partially or wholly) unfrozen by monday. relax and trust our federal bank regulators.
-
I wonder if the real reason she is pissed is that her line of credit just dried up and she suspects that other banks will not be as inclined to gamble on her crazy ideas?
-
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?
-
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?
My guess is that it is in return for ridiculous loans and lines of credit.
-
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?
My guess is that it is in return for ridiculous loans and lines of credit.
why wouldn't that attract a more diverse pool of depositors?
-
I wonder if the real reason she is pissed is that her line of credit just dried up and she suspects that other banks will not be as inclined to gamble on her crazy ideas?
If that’s the case then I’ll get out the popcorn so we can all laugh at her
-
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?
i've seen it explained as:
1. they were genuinely good and experienced at making loans and arranging financial services for atypical/early phase businesses
2. easier when related parties all used the same bank
3. a condition of loans/startup funding (including allegations that vc's got unrelated favorable treatment in exchange for directing deposits to svb).
4. just sort of standard agglomeration effects. like many of my coworkers use the same liability insurance agents and accountants and it's just because they pass recommendations btwn themselves and it's just easier because those people already know what products and services we need.
-
if everyone was as good at their jobs as federal bank regulators, what an amazing world it would be.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1635042362870345728
-
SVB and Signature. Who's next on the Jim Cramer "They're Solid" hit parade?
-
So do we nationalize banks now? (Economics are always politics)
-
SVB and Signature. Who's next on the Jim Cramer "They're Solid" hit parade?
lmao
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Man, I wish I had enough money in a bank to help contribute to a run on the banks.
-
When will mortgage rates go down? (Is this the right thread for this? I don't feel comfortable here)
-
I doubt they go down soon but I don't think they'll go up as much or as quickly as a lot of folks thought last week.
-
Man, I wish I had enough money in a bank to help contribute to a run on the banks.
I'm going to brag a bit here but I have a friend who is CEO of a vc-funded startup and got put on one of these tech group chats by his investors to connect with other CEOs. He told me they mostly talked about hiring fuckable HR managers (other CEOs, not my friend!!!) but I'm going to ask him if one of them started a bank run. I'm guessing he is on a much lower rung than the David sacks one but still.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
I found an old SRO Crown Vic at an auction for my daughter to drive. It isn't much to look at, but is a sound, safe car. I only paid a couple grand for it. You might look at auctions to see what you can find for a school car.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
I found an old SRO Crown Vic at an auction for my daughter to drive. It isn't much to look at, but is a sound, safe car. I only paid a couple grand for it. You might look at auctions to see what you can find for a school car.
That's fine for a daughter, but no one ever in the history of the world has factored in a girl's car into the calculation of whether they would date her or not.
-
When will mortgage rates go down? (Is this the right thread for this? I don't feel comfortable here)
My wild guess is 10 years.
-
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
I found an old SRO Crown Vic at an auction for my daughter to drive. It isn't much to look at, but is a sound, safe car. I only paid a couple grand for it. You might look at auctions to see what you can find for a school car.
That's fine for a daughter, but no one ever in the history of the world has factored in a girl's car into the calculation of whether they would date her or not.
BIG BACK SEAT!
-
When will mortgage rates go down? (Is this the right thread for this? I don't feel comfortable here)
I doubt we see anything under 4 for awhile but who knows. The good news is that you can just refinance when they do go down and it's a lot cheaper to do so these days than it used to be.
-
The regional banking system is like collapsing. Mainly in California, but that’s like the worlds 4th largest economy so that seems pretty significant…
-
Kim give it to me straight, how bad are we talking here.
-
The regional banking system is like collapsing
Yes, this is what I want to talk about. I read somewhere the banks are much more stable than they were in 2008. This is a Twitter problem where a panic can be manufactured to create a run on banks.
-
I would think all deposits being guaranteed at svb that it would stop the run on FRC, PACW etc but who knows
-
Kim give it to me straight, how bad are we talking here.
Small to mid sized banks that have a lot of business accounts are prob in real trouble. Basically every business owner/account holder is like, "eff it, I'm moving to (Insert Giant Too Big to Fail Bank Here).
-
Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
-
wsj oped weighs in
https://twitter.com/bcmerchant/status/1635331043216736256?s=20
-
wsj oped weighs in
https://twitter.com/bcmerchant/status/1635331043216736256?s=20
I bet it was the 2 veteran's fault for sure.
-
Maybe a banking scare will push me to positive in crypto.
-
Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
If banks close due to a panic induced run on deposits rather than mismanagement then I would not view that as a good thing
-
Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
If banks close due to a panic induced run on deposits rather than mismanagement then I would not view that as a good thing
Agree, and generally speaking fewer things means less competition and higher prices/worse service.
-
SVB and Signature. Who's next on the Jim Cramer "They're Solid" hit parade?
lmao
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
:lol: :lol: :lol:
-
Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
consolidation is good, imo, but i don't like that some banks are probably going to be forced into it.
it seems likely that there will be increased regulation on mid-sized (50-250b) banks. i think that will make it basically uncompetitive to be a small mid-sized bank so banks are gonna have to decide if they want to stay under 50b or merge to get enough scale to be able to afford regulatory costs.
maybe congress/the fed will have mercy on the small mids and only bump regulations on the over 100b banks or something.
-
i feel like i have a decent understanding of the issues with svb and signature bank and on a basic level understand what happened and why and the ongoing issues with us regional banks. but i have no idea what is happening with credit suisse. as far as i can tell european banks just constantly lose money in all environments and never make any money ever and then randomly fail and some other euro bank takes them over and then loses money for a decade until they get taken over, ad infinitum.
https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1637433273201700864
-
Makes shake shack seem like a pretty good deal.
-
I’m scooping up some financial services companies this morning. Not SIVB. Full disclosure: I’m an idiot with no idea of what I’m doing.
:facepalm:
My regional bank hasn't folded yet and hasn't reported "needing help" but this may have been a mistake.
-
Good read for those wanting to play in CPI tomorrow.
https://retailcapital.substack.com/p/how-is-cpi-impacting-the-market-from?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=668742&post_id=120143677&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
-
Jobs remain red hot
https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1659175353766510596
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
So if I were to buy a bank do I get all of the money in it or nah? It's like a personal atm after purchase right?
-
Jobs remain red hot
https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1659175353766510596
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You would think we were at 20% unemployment based on my LinkedIn feed. Recruiters are getting downsized significantly.
-
Are they still posting 4 paragraphs about how to hustle?
-
4.05 inflation print
:surprised:
-
Break it down for the non economists amongst us
-
Break it down for the non economists amongst us
i think you can only get over 4.0 if you take some weighted ap classes
-
if sd and cramer are creaming themselves that means we’re in trouble
-
Wake me up when we start printing dump trucks worth of money again
-
Break it down for the non economists amongst us
year over year inflation was lower than expected this month. means jerome will possibly hold on dropping the rate hammer next go around. it's already assumed they wouldn't raise at this week's meeting. but consensus (?) was that they'd do another rate hike next one (so this would just be a pause, not a pivot). now there is some feeling that we may have a longer pause or have plateaud if inflation continues to fall.
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1668599639472308224
-
I did a bit of reading and the inflation number dropping is being attributed to prices dropping due to “energy”. Is that basically oil pricing or is it more complex than that?
-
If he doesn't pause rates today, insane volatility will ensue.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230614/df82f9a8cd8d687b9d54cb4027a812ef.jpg)
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
absolutely wild chart
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzKCtqaaUAEXSQ-?format=jpg&name=large)
-
I'd be interested to see the housing and student loan service charts, if they exist.
-
grapes of wrath, not just a children's book about sucking on some ladies hogs for calories
-
it looks like they are just not counting processed food
-
absolutely wild chart
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzKCtqaaUAEXSQ-?format=jpg&name=large)
that is crazy. So many takeaways. The main one being that we are way fatter than back then and most likely eat way more food.
-
Does that chart include restaurants/fast food, or just grocery store purchases?
-
BLS has separate "entertainment" and "alcohol" categories as well as a "misc" category but no specific category for restaurants. I'd assume it's in Food but didn't dig into it to confirm or anything.
-
There are "Food At Home" and "Food Away From Home" subcategories in the Food category.
-
that is crazy. So many takeaways. The main one being that we are way fatter than back then and most likely eat way more food.
we do eat a bit more, but we've kinda always been deep in the trough compared to other countries.
https://twitter.com/cafreiman/status/1671347971458322434
-
Probably has to do with the Artisan farm to table culture we have fostered
-
I didn't know I needed a Dr Bobby Manhattan in my life
-
that is crazy. So many takeaways. The main one being that we are way fatter than back then and most likely eat way more food.
we do eat a bit more, but we've kinda always been deep in the trough compared to other countries.
https://twitter.com/cafreiman/status/1671347971458322434
That seems political
-
just look at the graph part.
-
MAGA sys can’t help himself
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Green revolution was/is a hell of a thing. Suck it, Malthus.
-
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
been binging Andrew bourdain's shows on Max.
It's insane to watch him eat around the world and then come to an american city to eat.
the portions, and ammount of processed crap from the american cities compared to everywhere else is nuts.
-
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
it's officially a bull market as of early June
-
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
it's officially a bull market as of early June
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
I glanced at my 401k recently and saw my portfolio was up like 16% YTD. That seems pretty good for basic bitch vanguard SP 500 stuff. In college I was obsessed with stocks and now it bores me to tears.
-
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
it's officially a bull market as of early June
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
When does it stop being a bear market rally and just become a bull market?
-
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
it's officially a bull market as of early June
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
When does it stop being a bear market rally and just become a bull market?
Officially when it was up 20% from its recent low. Early June sometime.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
it's officially a bull market as of early June
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
When does it stop being a bear market rally and just become a bull market?
Officially when it was up 20% from its recent low. Early June sometime.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
.
Right. I meant when does IPA4Me start calling it a bull market instead of a bear market rally.
-
Oh, sorry
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
The market is calling jerome a bitch and they just might be right
-
trade deficit narrowed, seems like we're kicking ass
-
trade deficit narrowed, seems like we're kicking ass
Salary increases outpaced inflation the other day. We are cooking:
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
New jobless claims 239k v. estimate of $265k (which was also prior number).
1Q GDP revised to 2.0% v. initial report of 1.3%.
folks, this economy is a chef and he came to work at his restaurant and got his kitchen ready and all his helpers there and they got the ingredients and like pots and pans and ovens or whatever they use and they are COOKIN'!
-
JOBS HOT, JEROME GONNA BRING THE HAMMER AGAIN! (caveat, it's ADP so...).
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1676927763230359552
-
If ADP is consistent with my experience with them, the real number might be 497, without the k.
-
JOBS HOT, JEROME GONNA BRING THE HAMMER AGAIN! (caveat, it's ADP so...).
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1676927763230359552
ADP YOU rough ridin' MORON! Jerome, buddy, put the hammer down man. nobody needs to get hurt over here. let's all be cool.
https://twitter.com/markets/status/1677294937585401858
-
Are we having fun yet? Next week should be even more fun!
Fortunately, I had closed my SPY calls as we approached WTF reversal as it was the top of a gap fill for SPX.
A team will be off vacation next week on Wall Street. Would like to chop up one more level to $SPY 450 before a deep pullback as we rally into a recession.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230708/af9dd0b0410158202f4129d6dffa7a8f.jpg)
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Inflation keeps creeping down. One more pause?(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230712/f55cf417cd7bbe890e682db653a26de6.jpg)
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
JEROME! You just landed on the carrier on one engine and missing front landing gear. Heroic stuff DONT GUN IT OFF THE SIDE OF THE SHIP TRYING TO DO A BARREL ROLL!
But irl I think one more raise minimum.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
I'd like to see another pause. All those rate hikes haven't made their way through the system yet. Rather not overbake the cake.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Flat PPI. Job market strong. Daddy Powell still has a chance to land this pig.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230713/594f2d9fd8b1f7ef843812b43a5173e9.jpg)
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
Hike as expected.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1684262410977443842
-
Oh damn, baby. We cookin'.
https://twitter.com/snorlax_uw/status/1684542540412776448
-
Frying pan charts are hot AF on econ/fintwit right now.
These are all nominal I think but still fun to look at. Thread:
https://twitter.com/vebaccount/status/1685470963511508992?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
We always return to the general trend. Price Action 101.
-
Frying pan charts are hot AF on econ/fintwit right now.
These are all nominal I think but still fun to look at. Thread:
https://twitter.com/vebaccount/status/1685470963511508992?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://twitter.com/vebaccount/status/1685662731536384000
-
August likely to be soft per Goldman Sachs. If you're long S&P 500 and can trade options...(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230731/a31c8bf47267b8ab77649cebbdcaa4fe.jpg)
-
August likely to be soft per Goldman Sachs. If you're long S&P 500 and can trade options...(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230731/a31c8bf47267b8ab77649cebbdcaa4fe.jpg)
Is this financial advice?
-
August likely to be soft per Goldman Sachs. If you're long S&P 500 and can trade options...(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230731/a31c8bf47267b8ab77649cebbdcaa4fe.jpg)
Is this financial advice?
Not from me. From GS.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230801/d1f514a19bc834c08782efa16c33f5c3.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230801/d1f514a19bc834c08782efa16c33f5c3.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Traders were doing a bunch of even more drugs in 1987 i bet.
-
Man, boomers had it so rough ridin' good. If you were alive and had like $2 in your pocket, you were half way to being Steve Jobs.
-
~$1700 hedge is now worth $4800. Hope you protected for the downside that was (and still is) coming.
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230903/63e768a771a3b7e38e305c1183ca5dba.jpg)
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230911/7db0a66347571f663b6cd04db643657c.jpg)
-
MS and WV having their own shade of color not even on the chart for per capita income probably just means they are incredibly wealthy
-
lol
-
If it wasn't for the petrochemical industry along the coast, Louisiana would be dead.
-
nevada and kansas have the same GDP? ok
-
Hollywood Casino is a cash machine
-
I like that a few are so small they don't even put a number
-
3.7% AUGUST CPI! HAMMER INCOMING!
:sdeek:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701937942426440098?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
-
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
-
3.7% AUGUST CPI! HAMMER INCOMING!
:sdeek:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701937942426440098?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Headline: Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain
https://fortune.com/2023/09/12/real-household-income-inflation/
It always cracks me up when economists, journalists and politicians wonder why Americans are so down on the economy when unemployment is very low.
Some other interesting things from the article:
- Official poverty rate was down to 11.5% from 11.6%
- Supplemental poverty rate rose to 12.4% due to no stimulus check and no extra child tax credit
- Median income for 90th percentile fell to $216,000 while median income for 10th percentile rose to $17,000
- Gini coefficient fell to 0.488
-
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
I'm surprised that category is at +10% when Gasoline is down -3%.
-
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
I'm surprised that category is at +10% when Gasoline is down -3%.
I haven't looked at all the parts but I know airfare was way up but will be coming down a lot soon.
-
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
I'm surprised that category is at +10% when Gasoline is down -3%.
I haven't looked at all the parts but I know airfare was way up but will be coming down a lot soon.
HOW SOON?!?!
-
I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
-
I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
-
I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
Must feed the military industrial complex.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230914/da9f501eddeaed3c010464c01a6f82d0.jpg)
-
I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
It was so simple and easy and good and we said “this sucks!”
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb in its administration and we should have just paid it through the Social Security administration but it was at least a step in the right direction and we also just said “what if instead we roll back child labor protections and see how many kids we can maim and kill in slaughterhouses so we can get an update to the Jungle?”
-
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
-
I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
It was so simple and easy and good and we said “this sucks!”
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb in its administration and we should have just paid it through the Social Security administration but it was at least a step in the right direction and we also just said “what if instead we roll back child labor protections and see how many kids we can maim and kill in slaughterhouses so we can get an update to the Jungle?”
This chapter will be titled “the second gilded age” when our grand kids/great grand kids take a history class in their future charter schools
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.
-
If I just stop paying for my kid's lunches will they stop feeding or teaching my kid?
-
3.7% AUGUST CPI! HAMMER INCOMING!
:sdeek:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701937942426440098?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I went and looked at the actual CPI data this morning and it is Transportation Services that is up 10.3%. This includes motor vehicle maintenance and repair, motor vehicle insurance and airline fares. The maintenance and repair and insurance components are driving this increase. Airline fares are actually down year over year.
The overall Transportation index is up 1.3% from Aug 2022 to Aug 2023. The overall Transportation index is also up 1.3% from July 2023 to Aug 2023.
-
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.
i agree with you on running everything through the tax code.
this is going to violate the non-political tag of this thread, but the ctc in particular is being very oversold. for example, the claim that it reduced "child poverty" makes it sound as if this was an independent measure of the effect. but of course it's not. it's just a calculation that if you give the amount of money given out, then mechanically this raises a number of families with children to an income that's over the poverty level. i have no doubt that there was a concurrent rise in the welfare of poor children whose families received the tax credit, but we shouldn't pretend that we've measured what that benefit was. we don't know.
the claim that the ctc was super cheap is also false. in fact, the cost is a big reason it wasn't renewed. it would have cost 170 billion a year to renew, which is more than twice as much as (the accounting value of mostly surplus and obsolete equipment) we've given ukraine (over a multi-year period). it's like 20% of the military budget (most of which is salary and benefits, which if cut would also increase child poverty). it's more than the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the inflation reduction act.
and most of that cost did nothing to reduce child poverty, because it was sent to taxpayers like you, simply as a payment from the government to people suffering no economic hardship, based on the dubious criteria of currently having a child under the age of 18.
https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1701671372819214634
meanwhile we shouldn't act like there are no tradeoffs involved in spending money. we are on track for something like a two trillion deficit this year. at a time when the economy is growing rapidly and the govt is spending like 5% (i'm guessing, didn't try to look it up) in interest on dept. we have to either raise revenues (seems unlikely) or cut spending (even less likely). the one thing we can do fairly easily to try and rationalize the budget is not take on new large spending programs. and we already have an extremely progressive tax code with a very low tax burden for lower income families.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1702131547833344285
-
Markets didn't like higher for longer and the possibility 25 bps in November.
Puts paid well today.
-
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.
i agree with you on running everything through the tax code.
this is going to violate the non-political tag of this thread, but the ctc in particular is being very oversold. for example, the claim that it reduced "child poverty" makes it sound as if this was an independent measure of the effect. but of course it's not. it's just a calculation that if you give the amount of money given out, then mechanically this raises a number of families with children to an income that's over the poverty level. i have no doubt that there was a concurrent rise in the welfare of poor children whose families received the tax credit, but we shouldn't pretend that we've measured what that benefit was. we don't know.
the claim that the ctc was super cheap is also false. in fact, the cost is a big reason it wasn't renewed. it would have cost 170 billion a year to renew, which is more than twice as much as (the accounting value of mostly surplus and obsolete equipment) we've given ukraine (over a multi-year period). it's like 20% of the military budget (most of which is salary and benefits, which if cut would also increase child poverty). it's more than the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the inflation reduction act.
and most of that cost did nothing to reduce child poverty, because it was sent to taxpayers like you, simply as a payment from the government to people suffering no economic hardship, based on the dubious criteria of currently having a child under the age of 18.
https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1701671372819214634
meanwhile we shouldn't act like there are no tradeoffs involved in spending money. we are on track for something like a two trillion deficit this year. at a time when the economy is growing rapidly and the govt is spending like 5% (i'm guessing, didn't try to look it up) in interest on dept. we have to either raise revenues (seems unlikely) or cut spending (even less likely). the one thing we can do fairly easily to try and rationalize the budget is not take on new large spending programs. and we already have an extremely progressive tax code with a very low tax burden for lower income families.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1702131547833344285
Our tax code and policy agendas are so intertwined it is hard sometimes to suss out one from the other. It is a horrific tax code and the inefficiencies mean it is not nearly as progressive as we think. if we just had a simpler tax code then compliance issues would get much easier.
Anyway sorry to muck up with too many politics.
-
I don't know how you can decouple economics from politics
-
I don't know how you can decouple economics from politics
well, 16 pages in and we mostly have
-
PANHANDLE CHARTS HOT RIGHT NOW STILL
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230928/61e73bd9f92797561d6e5cd49bead782.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Incredible chart
-
Good tweet and reply
https://twitter.com/prestonmui/status/1710336426238443710
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
How come the experts are so bad at guessing what jobs are going to do SD? Need new experts maybe?
-
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/9ce037f980f2636ade85d35feeef7ecb.jpg)
-
Report I saw said economy added 330k new jobs
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html)
-
Report I saw said economy added 330k new jobs
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html)
You need to dig into the report. Headline is trash.
The headline caused the algorithm dump this morning. Then we rallied after the digging through the details.
Daddy Powell's tightening is working.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/de05fe44b36c5bc4b8c0f1c0e0cd604f.jpg)
-
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/9ce037f980f2636ade85d35feeef7ecb.jpg)
That may be but as a little pro tip I’d never read another zerohedge tweet in the rest of my life if I was you.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/9ce037f980f2636ade85d35feeef7ecb.jpg)
That may be but as a little pro tip I’d never read another zerohedge tweet in the rest of my life if I was you.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Eh. It made the point I wanted to make.
Ya, he's a dip crap.
Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
-
So here's more breakdown of those "jobs" added. Of course, msm and the government hype team are screaming the headline numbers.
+123k part time
-22k full time employees (3 m/m in a row
+151k 2nd or 3rd+ job holders.
+222k Unincorporated self employed (1099 gig workers)
Also, know this...
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699362051334848837?t=tm0H3N1xl2LX7DPwVWOsyw&s=19
-
FOLKS WE ARE COOKIN’
https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
FOLKS WE ARE COOKIN’
https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fed seething
-
FOLKS WE ARE COOKIN’
https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fed seething
JEROME POWELL HATES THIS ONE SIMPLE TRICK!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Inflation report has the Fed in full fledged boner mode. Absolutely honking off to it folks.
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1730630449368617125
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1730603857137320280
-
Powell: We may have to raise again.
Market: The eff you will.
-
THE JOBS NUMBERS! THEY ARE GOOD!
:excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited:
-
I'll wait for the real jobs report from zero hedge thank you very much
-
I'll wait for the real jobs report from zero hedge thank you very much
Yeah
https://twitter.com/bullandbaird/status/1733120236172222556
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Rate hikes have done their job more than they announce. Always revised down.
https://twitter.com/ProfitsTaken/status/1733132505564193163?t=DP4f6608D8f4mHy3zmvzAw&s=19
-
Nice PPI numbers today for Jerome and the gang. Now we wait for the rate decision at 2p eastern.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231213/e937b090d36869e03e609bab0a875de2.jpg)
-
It’ll be unchanged
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
It’ll be unchanged
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Perhaps, I should've posted "Now we wait for the press conference at 230p and see how the market takes Jerome's words."
I agree. No rate hike or cut.
-
It’ll be unchanged
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Perhaps, I should've posted "Now we wait for the press conference at 230p and see how the market takes Jerome's words."
I agree. No rate hike or cut.
Nor should it change, inflation is more or less in check, the economy is doing pretty decent, jobs is strong. Might as well keep it there until it looks like the economy is starting to look like it's going to lag.
-
both the economy and the markets continue to whip incredible amounts of ass. this thing is cookin' like its never cooked before brother.
-
Did Jerome land this mottherfucker softly or what
-
Did Jerome land this mottherfucker softly or what
I rough ridin' hope so, but I'm not ready to declare it a victory yet.
-
Did Jerome land this mottherfucker softly or what
The Tangster? I feel like it's a little too early to say.
-
FOLKS!
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240126/c1ea62f8ddc543b48e9cc0c88931777f.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
This is so fantastic. A few years ago a ksu cat private equity fund manager pal of Linestone and I was telling us that he was bearishly convinced the S&P would hardly outpace inflation for the next 2 decades and I was so bummed out. He’s a value investor so, that’s his world view, but still was a bummer.
What he did not plan on was the nerds basically inventing C-3PO’s for everyone.
-
Suck it Mr Edgerly!
-
FOLKS!
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240126/c1ea62f8ddc543b48e9cc0c88931777f.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
US of A is party rocking our face off and slamming so many hot chicks we decided to let our Nerdy lil bro Canada tag along and pick up any leftovers.
Europe is still laying in their room nursing a 3 day hangover.
-
They’ll get their C-3PO money soon enough.
-
This economy is so gd gross
-
So gross. So, so, so gross
-
Buckle up. We ain't done yet.
-
I'd be shocked if we didn't have two quarters of bad earnings reporting.
I'm getting more and more bearish. Going to increase my ETF shorts over the next week in the rollover.
We're teetering on a big downturn. Hopefully tomorrow's House hearing will be a bit dovish and we can rip a few points. I'm swinging option calls for SPX.
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
it's officially a bull market as of early June
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.
Would like to chop up one more level to $SPY 450 before a deep pullback as we rally into a recession.
Buckle up. We ain't done yet.
-
Hey @mocat I don't know about you but I trade the chart on the screen. My predictions might have been incorrect but I've been stacking it.
Anywho, we'll break something eventually and when it does I'll still play the chart on the screen.
-
I just buy VOO nonstop. It’s good!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
If I think the market is going to go up I buy VOO. If I think the market is going to go down I buy VOO. It’s a foolproof scheme.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Literally just did that today sd
-
I just buy VOO nonstop. It’s good!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I've started mixing in some VOOG, am I an idiot?
-
I just buy VOO nonstop. It’s good!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I've started mixing in some VOOG, am I an idiot?
SETTLE DOWN!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
I like to live on the wild side so I am all in on VTSAX
-
I like to live on the wild side so I am all in on VTSAX
That one is actually very boring. Maybe loosen up square.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
I split all my taxable brokerage investments between VOO and VTI.
Occasionally people ask me if there’s a reason I do that, and there is: I have no idea what I’m doing.
-
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240203/6a0c6c657339a260faec0978aca9061d.jpg)
-
Nothing but S&P 500 index for me (SWPPX is my flavor merely because of plan administrator).
Every god damn nickel.
-
Why don’t we all take the s&p strategy one step further and just put all of our money into the 10 largest companies?? We’re losing out on a lot of money.
-
Why don’t we all take the s&p strategy one step further and just put all of our money into the 10 largest companies?? We’re losing out on a lot of money.
STONKS
(https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021-10-Top-SP-500-Stocks-2-1536x1536.png)
(https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021-10-Top-SP-500-Stocks-3-1536x1536.png)
-
US Govt should buy a bunch of Tesla calls, pass some new battery subsidies, cash those MF'ers out, then pay off the debt.
-
Yeah you’re not grasping my strategy
-
U gotta really understand stocks to understand what im proposing
-
We need to go all in on Raytheon calls that mature this friday, that are currently wildly out of the money, then declare war on Iran, Iraq, Russia, China, Hamas, Israel, and probably a crap ton more. Boom, we would probably be able to pay off the debt and start UBI.
-
U gotta really understand stocks to understand what im proposing
I have no rough ridin' idea what you are trying to say, which is why I should stick to index fund investing I suppose.
-
To be clear, my only goal is match the S&P 500's performance. I have zero desire to take any risk beyond that.
-
3.9% CPI. Came in a little hot. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240213/4361e5982631a60e9acf42600aa0d586.jpg)
-
It’s all just greedflation according to biden
-
Anyone use a reputable banking and investment account aggregator? I used Mint forever before it shut down. Didn't really use it often, but it was nice to be able to go to one place and find a transaction or something for a purchase on one of my billion credit cards.
-
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?
-
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?
Should get there
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?
How close would you be if the market beats inflation by 6% the next five years on average.
-
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?
How close would you be if the market beats inflation by 6% the next five years on average.
yeah, that's what you have to ask yourself. it beats inflation by 6%+ on avg. where will you be in 12 years with that return Pete? add a few extra feet to the pontoon imo.
-
First we need to know what your goal is to determine if it’s even close to adequate (spoiler alert, it’s not)
-
What if u live to be 100, there’s so many variables here
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
-
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
-
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
also she has one kid. I've wondered if she is secretly planning on him supporting her when she's old AF. If that's her plan she's in bigtime trouble because I've spent some time around the kid and he's a dumbshit.
-
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
also she has one kid. I've wondered if she is secretly planning on him supporting her when she's old AF. If that's her plan she's in bigtime trouble because I've spent some time around the kid and he's a dumbshit.
That plan is great if u end up dying of a heart attack at like 65, not great if your health slowly deteriorates to the point where you can’t work and need assistance
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
-
Picking the right time to retire is a bit of an art I think. In general my goal is to be able to spend a little more than I do now from the start of retirement until like 60, then pare it back to a safer number that will last, then start just giving crap away if/when I hit 80. By that point I’ll literally just need a warm blanket, comfy chair, and a decent TV.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I won’t be able to do that.
My goal would be to be able to take out 4% of my retirement savings each year to use as my desired income level, and have enough saved to live until 85 (I won’t likely won’t live to be 80, based on genes).
-
I think I need double the money right now, adjusted for inflation.
So, if I earn 0.03 over inflation for 12 years then (1.03)^12 = 2.022469067498369 times my present value.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
-
crap happens I guess, but if I save at my current rate and get above expectation returns I could beat the 12 mark I suppose.
-
Is there a chance that the 2020's end up similar to the 90's?
-
In the 90's if you had just bought tons of call/put options on dot commy sounding companies....starting with like $100 of options and just keep upping it as you went, I wonder how well you would have done?
-
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
I kind of get this. It was drilled into me by my parents to at the minimum get the match from the company and that's all I ever did. I also drained my 401k at 30 when I went back to school to pay living expenses and it sort of makes me sad how much that money would be worth now but yolo. I always figured if I'd have to work until I die, at least I'm enjoying myself now.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
My mom did that to keep her health insurance.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
100% agree. Also I'm good at telling people these facts but not living them most likely. we'll see.
-
Is there a chance that the 2020's end up similar to the 90's?
We just made new market highs. A great thing about that is that making a new market high is generally a good sign for the market.
(https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-07-094435.png)
-
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
I kind of get this. It was drilled into me by my parents to at the minimum get the match from the company and that's all I ever did. I also drained my 401k at 30 when I went back to school to pay living expenses and it sort of makes me sad how much that money would be worth now but yolo. I always figured if I'd have to work until I die, at least I'm enjoying myself now.
Oh I for sure respect the crap out of it. It would stress me out but if you've committed to that path I imagine it would be pretty nice. By nature I am NOT laissez faire about anything.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
-
The head of one of our departments is part-time but also owns a franchise type bakery and I'm pretty sure the only reason they stay around is for the marketing opportunities
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.
Yeah, this except I won’t expect it and he’ll just do it anyway. I’M THE “good” GUY!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.
Yeah, this except I won’t expect it and he’ll just do it anyway. I’M THE “good” GUY!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Does he work from home? 2 days a week working from home plus half salary and benefits would be pretty enticing regardless. Just shut everything down those other days and if SD has a problem with that, peace out SD!!!!
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.
Yeah, this except I won’t expect it and he’ll just do it anyway. I’M THE “good” GUY!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Does he work from home? 2 days a week working from home plus half salary and benefits would be pretty enticing regardless. Just shut everything down those other days and if SD has a problem with that, peace out SD!!!!
He comes into the office 2 days a week currently. We don’t live in the same city (he’s in KC) so I don’t actually ever see him.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.
in general people like you spend less money than they expect to in retirement. I hope that's not you and you live bigtime in retirement but that's generally what happens. people get scared and die with a pile of cash. that's a sad thing. even people who say "I want to leave it for my kids" aren't doing them a service imo. better to spend it on experiences with the kids while you're actually alive.
-
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.
-
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.
I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
-
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.
I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
-
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.
I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
Damn so you've only got like, 2-3 years left until you can retire?
-
Plus the gE ad revenue distributions obviously
-
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.
I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
This is what I would like to do, but don't really have the benefits figured out yet. We did a buyout recently and it wasn't as good as ones in the past but still decent. It still didn't get much traction because people don't want to lose their health insurance. Its such a rough ridin' scam to have to keep working your whole life just to keep insurance.
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
-
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.
I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
This is what I would like to do, but don't really have the benefits figured out yet. We did a buyout recently and it wasn't as good as ones in the past but still decent. It still didn't get much traction because people don't want to lose their health insurance. Its such a rough ridin' scam to have to keep working your whole life just to keep insurance.
I literally can't lose my health insurance. The only way I can pay for my extremely expensive meds is with insurance. I got a statement last month showing all the charges for my meds last year, just over $250,000 before insurance. My meds are indefinite so that's every single year if they keep working. It's just insane, but I need them to live a normal life.
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
The problem is that even some of the pricier plans on the exchange do not cover basic things you would expect. Dental and vision being the biggest, but even then there are all kinds of weird carve outs for even the most expensive plans. Every once in a while when I dream about early retirement I look this up and decide all over again that I'll probably just be a Starbucks barista or Amazon delivery driver for the absolute minimum hours to get decent healthcare.
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
It was a catastrophe plan. I think he said the deductable was $7k, didn't include vision or dental.
-
IMO, vision and dental are overrated. The benefits are capped so low that I don't see the point, although I do have dental insurance.
-
My mom was like $1500/month on the exchange for her and her husband (early 60's).
-
Seems attainable financially for someone already wealthy enough to retire early. Even working full time your healthcare coverage costs aren't 0.
-
When I was not working, I had a high deductible plan for me and fam for about $500/mo. That had dental and I think maybe vision.
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
It was a catastrophe plan. I think he said the deductable was $7k, didn't include vision or dental.
A $7000 deductible is not a catastrophic plan. A catastrophic plan would be a minimum of a $25,000 deductible and more like a $50,000 deductible.
-
I think I need double the money right now, adjusted for inflation.
So, if I earn 0.03 over inflation for 12 years then (1.03)^12 = 2.022469067498369 times my present value.
1.03^12 = 1.425760886846178945447841 times your PV. If you want need to double your money in 12 years (assuming no further contributions), you need to have a real return of roughly 6% (72/6 = 12).
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
It was a catastrophe plan. I think he said the deductable was $7k, didn't include vision or dental.
A $7000 deductible is not a catastrophic plan. A catastrophic plan would be a minimum of a $25,000 deductible and more like a $50,000 deductible.
To most Americans $7000 is a catastrophe. I get what you are saying, but it's situational, and probably semantics.
-
I'm currently paying like $880/month for family health insurance and the family deductible is $4k ($8k out of pocket limit). We hit it every year.
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
That's a rough ridin' steal!
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
$1683
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
I think you're talking about "concierge medicine." In my experience, you still have to pay for labs and imaging (and the like).
-
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
$1683
Tell them to increase your premium to 1738
-
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
I think you're talking about "concierge medicine." In my experience, you still have to pay for labs and imaging (and the like).
Yep, still might be a decent deal for a healthy person that just needs a minor thing every once in a while. This is what the membership covers apparently.
24/7 access to physician via phone/text and email
Same-day/next day in-office and “virtual” visits during regular office hours
Appointment length determined by patient (up to 60 minutes)
Office surgeries — lacerations, cysts, moles, skin tags, warts, etc.
Diagnostic/Screening Tests — Vision, hearing, spirometry, EKG
Annual Basic Health Assessment
"At Cost" pricing on all blood tests
Member discounts on diagnostic imaging (X-ray, CT scan, ultrasound, MRI)
Full-function online patient portal — a secure direct link to your information
-
Can we get a little political in here and not tell SD about it before he gets back online at 6am Monday morning?
-
If you can be treated over zoom you dont need a doctor
-
I think I need double the money right now, adjusted for inflation.
So, if I earn 0.03 over inflation for 12 years then (1.03)^12 = 2.022469067498369 times my present value.
1.03^12 = 1.425760886846178945447841 times your PV. If you want need to double your money in 12 years (assuming no further contributions), you need to have a real return of roughly 6% (72/6 = 12).
Yeah, I messed that up. The spreadsheet was right by my phone was not.
3% over inflation for 12 years gets me to where I want to be if I also max out 401K over the next 12 years….then plan to take out 4% a year, leave 3 years or so in cash, and the rest in the S&P 500. We’ll see, so much can happen to change all of this.
-
If you can be treated over zoom you dont need a doctor
Zoom medicine exists solely to get prescriptions for stuff that should be OTC like drops for pinkeye.
-
If you can be treated over zoom you dont need a doctor
Zoom medicine exists solely to get prescriptions for stuff that should be OTC like drops for pinkeye.
Boner pills, depression pills, anxiety pills, hair loss pills. All kinds of stuff, and it keeps expanding every day.
-
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-number-of-americans-are-now-401k-millionaires-100001736.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-number-of-americans-are-now-401k-millionaires-100001736.html)
-
Why don’t we all take the s&p strategy one step further and just put all of our money into the 10 largest companies?? We’re losing out on a lot of money.
You are now
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240308/b05a757c926623c782eabf5571b46e31.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
-
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
The State of the Union is strong.
-
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
WE BACK UP
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Back to yesterday's highs. Oh no.
-
+303k jobs. This economy cannot be stopped. We are red hot folks.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
85 and out (retire at 58), a Roth, and then wait on Social Security if I am lucky enough to make it to 72.
Going to have the steve dave talk with my wife.
-
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
not only is it possible, it is true!
-
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
We are living in wild times. If Joey's market doesn't cool off, I will be retiring 3-4 years earlier than planned.
-
85 and out (retire at 58), a Roth, and then wait on Social Security if I am lucky enough to make it to 72.
Going to have the steve dave talk with my wife.
I think I need a translation for this.
-
He's retiring with full benefits from the state at 58. He's going to delay SS until 72. He needs to make sure his wife is on the work until 66 or older plan.
-
He's retiring with full benefits from the state at 58. He's going to delay SS until 72. He needs to make sure his wife is on the work until 66 or older plan.
That helps greatly. Thank you.
-
Great translation.
My number at 58 is actually 93 and realistically the variables are how my kids are doing, how my wife is doing, how the market is doing and how I am doing.
Hopefully by this time I have a clean water supply and a bunker ready for climate-geddon
-
I’d be pumped if I was like 40 yrs older than I am
-
KK, we are on identical plans.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
I’d be pumped if I was like 40 yrs older than I am
Yeah, a strong economy now doesn't mean jack for my retirement, but it's nice to see nonetheless.
No idea when full retirement will happen for me, but I'm within a few years of my plan for semi-retirement (whatever job I can get with full benefits and as little actual work as possible).
-
Great translation.
My number at 58 is actually 93 and realistically the variables are how my kids are doing, how my wife is doing, how the market is doing and how I am doing.
Hopefully by this time I have a clean water supply and a bunker ready for climate-geddon
Good call on the water. Most preppers neglect to adequately account for the most important thing they'll need. I recommend buying cisterns or, even better, drilling a producing well as soon as you can.
-
Not a prepper.
That said, if I was, I would buy exclusively water treatment stuff and guns/ammo. It takes up less storage than all that other stuff and, ultimately, why prep when you can overpower and take?
-
I will just learn what type of humor preppers like and then get good at that so they keep me around for comic relief. I could travel from bunker to bunker delivering news of the outside world wrapped in a palatable package of (most likely) "men are from mars women are from venus" type humor
-
I will just learn what type of humor preppers like and then get good at that so they keep me around for comic relief. I could travel from bunker to bunker delivering news of the outside world wrapped in a palatable package of (most likely) "men are from mars women are from venus" type humor
What was the recent movie where the guy travelled around in the 19th Century just reading the news of the day?
-
Not a prepper.
That said, if I was, I would buy exclusively water treatment stuff and guns/ammo. It takes up less storage than all that other stuff and, ultimately, why prep when you can overpower and take?
My dad, nonpolitical corporate slave turned gun nut, was talking to me recently about a similar strategy. When I pointed out the flaw in his bug-out plan (water), he mentioned his neighbor had a well. And he was willing to ask cordially at first but also willing to commandeer by deadly force. (He believes the well actually lies in his property.)
-
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If I was a prepper, my plan for the apocalypse would probably be coming up with the most peaceful way possible to die instead of trying to scrape through existing and being lucky not to starve to death assuming my gun toting neighbors didn’t shoot me first in order to get some potable water from my toilet to drink.
-
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If I was a prepper, my plan for the apocalypse would probably be coming up with the most peaceful way possible to die instead of trying to scrape through existing and being lucky not to starve to death assuming my gun toting neighbors didn’t shoot me first in order to get some potable water from my toilet to drink.
Same, I'd prob get a bunch of peanut butter or something to last the family for at least a little while to see how it shakes out, but if I got the sense that it was going to drag on and be like a complete restart, no way i'm dealing with the MAGA nuts. That would be like the only time I had any interest whatsoever in visiting the Grand Canyon.
-
I have always hoped that whatever meteor, nuke, etc that causes such an event, hit my house.
-
I have always hoped that whatever meteor, nuke, etc that causes such an event, hit my house.
Same
-
I’ve always hoped is blasts everyone else’s houses
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Obviously it would be terrifying and very rapey, but to be there to witness the apocalypse....
-
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You are going to love my newest FARM update I got from my dad....
-
If I had Meta money, I would totally build a bunker, but not for the end, more for having a LARP party where we all dress up like our fav prepper and shoot paintballs and water cannons at Chinese drones and stuff, the. Hang out on my private Hawaiian beach and stuff.
That makes sense .
Your grandpa hoarding beans in his tornado shelter doesn’t, imo.