Author Topic: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread  (Read 3551 times)

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Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #50 on: February 11, 2022, 09:13:04 AM »
The Fed is so far behind the curve. They should have started increasing in quarter point increments two meetings ago and at the very least, raised the fed funds rate 25 points last meeting. Now we have to wait until the middle of March before they do anything

The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.

Do you think that they should have started tapering the asset purchases earlier?  The part that is confusing to me as someone that is not an expert is why they are trying to raise rates 50 points before they even slowed the asset purchases.

Yes, they should have started tapering earlier. I am a lot more hawkish than the average Fed governor/district bank president. I think they should have started tapering 6-9 months ago and started raising rates 3-6 months ago.

I don't think they should start raising the fed funds rate before they start tapering asset purchases, though I think they could start raising their target for the fed funds rate as they are winding down tapering. As it is, tapering should be complete in March, so there is no reason they couldn't have started increasing the target for the fed funds rate at the January meeting.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #51 on: April 01, 2022, 07:34:39 AM »
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.

thread

Offline bucket

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #52 on: April 01, 2022, 08:10:19 AM »
Quote
April is historically the best of all months for the markets, up 15 out of every 16, according to veteran chartist Larry Williams. His research suggests the current market is in a good zone to go higher.

Let's keep the rally going!

Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #53 on: April 01, 2022, 11:13:43 AM »
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.

thread

Wage gains = 5.6%
Inflation = 7.9%

How is this good?

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #54 on: April 01, 2022, 01:17:52 PM »
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?

Offline kim carnes

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #55 on: April 01, 2022, 01:50:12 PM »
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.

thread

Wage gains = 5.6%
Inflation = 7.9%

How is this good?

Inflation and every other negative economic thing that is happening is a byproduct of getting rid of the salt deduction

Offline sys

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #56 on: April 01, 2022, 03:40:12 PM »
Inflation and every other negative economic thing that is happening is a byproduct of getting rid of the salt deduction

worth it, imo.
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Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #57 on: April 28, 2022, 05:17:09 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

White hot economy.

Transitory inflation.

Offline sys

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #58 on: April 29, 2022, 08:12:35 AM »
there's some weird crap going on.
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Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #59 on: May 01, 2022, 02:05:27 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/economy/inflation-worker-compensation/index.html

Quote
Inflation spurs record decline in workers' wages and benefits

White hot economy.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #60 on: June 10, 2022, 07:49:33 AM »
Headline inflation in April was 1%, and 8.6% over the year.

Core inflation was up +0.6% in the month and +6.0% over the year.

:sdeek:


Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #61 on: June 10, 2022, 07:58:12 AM »
We're so mumped

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #62 on: June 10, 2022, 12:28:04 PM »
eff it, let’s go 75 basis points next week. You know what! Round that SOB up to a big fat 100.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #63 on: June 10, 2022, 12:37:55 PM »
Welp, good counterpoint


Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #64 on: June 14, 2022, 11:54:52 AM »
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Current probabilities for rate hikes:

50 basis point hike: 3.9%
75 basis point hike: 96.1%

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #65 on: June 14, 2022, 12:35:43 PM »
They are for sure going 75. They were very savvy leaking it the other day so they didn’t catch anyone off guard. My guess is 75bps 3x.

Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #66 on: June 14, 2022, 01:32:46 PM »
The current probabilities from the same site for rates for the September 21 meeting are:

2.25-2.50%: 0.3%
2.50-2.75%: 10.3%
2.75-3.00%: 63.9%
3.00-3.25%: 25.5%.

The current target rate is 0.75-1.00%. The above percentages indicate three 75 basis point hikes is very much possible. The 2.75-3.00% range would be two 75 point hikes and one 50 point hike.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #67 on: June 14, 2022, 01:45:47 PM »
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?

Like pre-1980s (just guessing)
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Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #68 on: June 14, 2022, 02:07:12 PM »
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?

Like pre-1980s (just guessing)

You don't have to go back anywhere close to that far for median usual real weekly earnings to outpace inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q#0

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #69 on: June 14, 2022, 04:21:03 PM »

Offline Justwin

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #70 on: June 14, 2022, 05:10:37 PM »


I almost want inflation to get bad enough (but not really) to see a 100 basis point hike.

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #71 on: June 15, 2022, 05:35:44 PM »


I almost want inflation to get bad enough (but not really) to see a 100 basis point hike.
Missed it by a hair


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Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #72 on: June 15, 2022, 07:27:45 PM »
Let’s do next time to just flex

Offline steve dave

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #73 on: July 08, 2022, 07:36:50 AM »
Jobs beat 372k v. 265k expected. Wage gains met at 5.1% v. 5.0% expected. Unemployment steady and fully employed at 3.6%. Certainly not recession'y numbers. GDP will probably show otherwise tho. Weird time we are living in.



Offline Stupid Fitz

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Re: Non-Political Market/Economy/Finance/etc. Thread
« Reply #74 on: July 08, 2022, 08:23:30 AM »
Jobs beat 372k v. 265k expected. Wage gains met at 5.1% v. 5.0% expected. Unemployment steady and fully employed at 3.6%. Certainly not recession'y numbers. GDP will probably show otherwise tho. Weird time we are living in.

Nothing really makes sense right now.  :dunno: