Author Topic: Game Recaps by Drive  (Read 3482 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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Game Recaps by Drive
« on: September 13, 2021, 03:23:22 PM »
Just a place to put these.

Here the "productivity" number is the "actual" value of the drive minus the expected value of the drive for an average offense.  For example, an average team will score about a 0.9 points for a drive that starts on the 25 yard line (like after a touch back on kickoff), and an average team will score about 4.3 points when starting a drive from the opponent's 25 yard line.  I put actual in quotes because I still give some credit for offense that moves the ball, but doesn't score (that's because in principle in makes it harder for the other offense to score from worse field position).



Only 3 productive drives by the offense, but the defense really did it's job.



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« Last Edit: September 13, 2021, 03:46:18 PM by Chingon »

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2021, 06:48:11 PM »
Can’t wait for chingdex 2021 edition. I’m already getting angry thinking about it.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2021, 07:51:05 PM »
So is a "productive drive" one that scores above that 4.3 average? I guess just eyeballing both the Stanford and SIU game we had like 4 per game, not the 3 in the SIU. Claiming low FBPIQ here
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Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2021, 09:14:11 PM »
So is a "productive drive" one that scores above that 4.3 average? I guess just eyeballing both the Stanford and SIU game we had like 4 per game, not the 3 in the SIU. Claiming low FBPIQ here
No. My previous commentary was based on an older picture.  It turns out my data feed is giving some garbage stuff (inconsistent in terms of how they report the line of scrimmage) that I had to correct for.  The more accurate data is much kinder to the offense.

I'd still say that 3 drives were good (good being about 3 points or more above average), but more drives were ok and not damaging.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2021, 11:00:49 AM »
Week 3

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2021, 11:40:45 AM »
Looks like our best overall game so far
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2021, 11:45:22 AM »
Chingadex 4.0 comes out next week!
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2021, 12:38:17 PM »
While I have to boil things down to a single number for ChERNOBYL, I think it's interesting to look at the distribution of all drives for KSU (so far)

50% of the time our defense is giving up less than 1 effective point a drive. Meanwhile our offense is starting to look a little boom or bust-like.  ~38% of the time we have a great drive yielding significant points, but unfortunately about 25% of our offensive drives actually yield negative value.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2021, 10:59:51 AM »
Week 4:

Just a disaster of a first half.  Once again the offense puts up a huge negative value drive. It was nice to see the defense settle down (although I am not sure how much of that was Oklahoma State going conservative with it quite clear that our offense wasn't capable to scoring enough points to come back).

Updated:

About 30% of our offensive drives are values at 4 or more points, but almost half (~47%) of our offensive drives yield less than 1 effective point.  Defense is still looking good IMO.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2021, 11:31:29 AM »
Week 4:

Just a disaster of a first half.  Once again the offense puts up a huge negative value drive. It was nice to see the defense settle down (although I am not sure how much of that was Oklahoma State going conservative with it quite clear that our offense wasn't capable to scoring enough points to come back).

Updated:

About 30% of our offensive drives are values at 4 or more points, but almost half (~47%) of our offensive drives yield less than 1 effective point.  Defense is still looking good IMO.

Sanders threw 15 passes in the first half 19 in the second half. Doesn't appear as if they went conservative. The defense committed fewer key penalties and did a better job on 1st down.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2021, 11:42:43 AM »
You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2021, 11:54:49 AM »


You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

OSU had huge plays on that screen in the first half and definitely tried it again in the second without much success. And they were probably pretty conservative, both can be true!

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2021, 04:27:51 PM »


You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

OSU had huge plays on that screen in the first half and definitely tried it again in the second without much success. And they were probably pretty conservative, both can be true!

It was a bit of column A and B but agree with MiR, Sanders was slinging it more than just going conservative in the second half. The defense stopped having stupid personal foul penalties, and also remembered they can tackle on first/second down, it really settled, even the run defense tightened, it was just a very very poorly played first half by the D.
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Offline nicname

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2021, 07:13:49 PM »


You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

OSU had huge plays on that screen in the first half and definitely tried it again in the second without much success. And they were probably pretty conservative, both can be true!

Gundy was pretty great at taking advantage of our “mob” mentality in the first half. Kudos to Klando for adjusting in the second.
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2021, 08:36:13 PM »
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline michigancat

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2021, 09:29:47 PM »
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2021, 07:37:12 AM »
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

I rewatched the game last night and hadnt seen Lewis’s INT live. Lol that was so bad. It’s almost a certainty that Will would have done better. I still can’t believe that play where Henington twists Sanders ankle after he throws it resulted in a 15 yard unsportsmanlike on OSU and then a missed field goal.
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Offline nicname

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2021, 07:56:12 AM »
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

I rewatched the game last night and hadnt seen Lewis’s INT live. Lol that was so bad. It’s almost a certainty that Will would have done better. I still can’t believe that play where Henington twists Sanders ankle after he throws it resulted in a 15 yard unsportsmanlike on OSU and then a missed field goal.

Ryan Leaf was gold during that Henington play/replay.
If there was a gif of nicname thwarting the attempted-flag-taker and then gesturing him to suck it, followed by motioning for all of Hilton Shelter to boo him louder, it'd be better than that auburn gif.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2021, 11:43:49 AM »
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

I rewatched the game last night and hadnt seen Lewis’s INT live. Lol that was so bad. It’s almost a certainty that Will would have done better. I still can’t believe that play where Henington twists Sanders ankle after he throws it resulted in a 15 yard unsportsmanlike on OSU and then a missed field goal.

Not sure why Hennington twisted Sanders the way that he did but the referees didn't blow the whistle until Sanders was on his way down.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2021, 03:16:54 PM »
MoValley Messingham’s offense sure does struggle at times.

Goodness Snyder threw Kody Fuckin Cook out there and scored on those chumps
We can ask Marina to print this

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2021, 11:01:30 AM »
Week 5:


Unfortunately we once again had a big negative drive on offense.   The offense did look a lot better, but in order to beat the top teams more drives needed to end in TDs

Updated:




"QB" Productivity

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2021, 10:28:40 AM »
Week 7:


Deja Vu






Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2021, 11:05:01 AM »
Week 8:


Happily, this week we were able to overcome yet another disastrous start by the defense (and special teams).



Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2021, 04:13:05 PM »
Week 9:

Stellar game from the defense.  Wasn't great to see the offense disappear for that stretch there, but a solid W nonetheless.


We're due for a defensive score.  This week is ripe for some.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Game Recaps by Drive
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2021, 11:12:52 AM »
Week 10:


Drives 13 and 14 were a bad sequence, but other than that, we did what needed to be done to a shitty shitty team.


Next week for that defensive score?