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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 13, 2021, 03:23:22 PM

Title: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on September 13, 2021, 03:23:22 PM
Just a place to put these.

Here the "productivity" number is the "actual" value of the drive minus the expected value of the drive for an average offense.  For example, an average team will score about a 0.9 points for a drive that starts on the 25 yard line (like after a touch back on kickoff), and an average team will score about 4.3 points when starting a drive from the opponent's 25 yard line.  I put actual in quotes because I still give some credit for offense that moves the ball, but doesn't score (that's because in principle in makes it harder for the other offense to score from worse field position).

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/nRiZ8.png)

Only 3 productive drives by the offense, but the defense really did it's job.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/N9f4a.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: wetwillie on September 13, 2021, 06:48:11 PM
Can’t wait for chingdex 2021 edition. I’m already getting angry thinking about it.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: cfbandyman on September 13, 2021, 07:51:05 PM
So is a "productive drive" one that scores above that 4.3 average? I guess just eyeballing both the Stanford and SIU game we had like 4 per game, not the 3 in the SIU. Claiming low FBPIQ here
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on September 13, 2021, 09:14:11 PM
So is a "productive drive" one that scores above that 4.3 average? I guess just eyeballing both the Stanford and SIU game we had like 4 per game, not the 3 in the SIU. Claiming low FBPIQ here
No. My previous commentary was based on an older picture.  It turns out my data feed is giving some garbage stuff (inconsistent in terms of how they report the line of scrimmage) that I had to correct for.  The more accurate data is much kinder to the offense.

I'd still say that 3 drives were good (good being about 3 points or more above average), but more drives were ok and not damaging.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on September 21, 2021, 11:00:49 AM
Week 3
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/LMg4w.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: cfbandyman on September 21, 2021, 11:40:45 AM
Looks like our best overall game so far
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: wetwillie on September 21, 2021, 11:45:22 AM
Chingadex 4.0 comes out next week!
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on September 21, 2021, 12:38:17 PM
While I have to boil things down to a single number for ChERNOBYL, I think it's interesting to look at the distribution of all drives for KSU (so far)
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/h68nd.png)
50% of the time our defense is giving up less than 1 effective point a drive. Meanwhile our offense is starting to look a little boom or bust-like.  ~38% of the time we have a great drive yielding significant points, but unfortunately about 25% of our offensive drives actually yield negative value.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on September 27, 2021, 10:59:51 AM
Week 4:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/ifLQK.png)
Just a disaster of a first half.  Once again the offense puts up a huge negative value drive. It was nice to see the defense settle down (although I am not sure how much of that was Oklahoma State going conservative with it quite clear that our offense wasn't capable to scoring enough points to come back).

Updated:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/28lFn.png)
About 30% of our offensive drives are values at 4 or more points, but almost half (~47%) of our offensive drives yield less than 1 effective point.  Defense is still looking good IMO.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: MakeItRain on September 27, 2021, 11:31:29 AM
Week 4:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/ifLQK.png)
Just a disaster of a first half.  Once again the offense puts up a huge negative value drive. It was nice to see the defense settle down (although I am not sure how much of that was Oklahoma State going conservative with it quite clear that our offense wasn't capable to scoring enough points to come back).

Updated:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/28lFn.png)
About 30% of our offensive drives are values at 4 or more points, but almost half (~47%) of our offensive drives yield less than 1 effective point.  Defense is still looking good IMO.

Sanders threw 15 passes in the first half 19 in the second half. Doesn't appear as if they went conservative. The defense committed fewer key penalties and did a better job on 1st down.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on September 27, 2021, 11:42:43 AM
You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on September 27, 2021, 11:54:49 AM


You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

OSU had huge plays on that screen in the first half and definitely tried it again in the second without much success. And they were probably pretty conservative, both can be true!
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: cfbandyman on September 27, 2021, 04:27:51 PM


You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

OSU had huge plays on that screen in the first half and definitely tried it again in the second without much success. And they were probably pretty conservative, both can be true!

It was a bit of column A and B but agree with MiR, Sanders was slinging it more than just going conservative in the second half. The defense stopped having stupid personal foul penalties, and also remembered they can tackle on first/second down, it really settled, even the run defense tightened, it was just a very very poorly played first half by the D.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: nicname on September 27, 2021, 07:13:49 PM


You could be right, but I seem to remember then y not calling very many pass plays on first down, and the passes they did throw were generally very safe.  But that could very well because we took everything else away.

OSU had huge plays on that screen in the first half and definitely tried it again in the second without much success. And they were probably pretty conservative, both can be true!

Gundy was pretty great at taking advantage of our “mob” mentality in the first half. Kudos to Klando for adjusting in the second.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: wetwillie on September 27, 2021, 08:36:13 PM
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on September 27, 2021, 09:29:47 PM
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: wetwillie on September 28, 2021, 07:37:12 AM
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

I rewatched the game last night and hadnt seen Lewis’s INT live. Lol that was so bad. It’s almost a certainty that Will would have done better. I still can’t believe that play where Henington twists Sanders ankle after he throws it resulted in a 15 yard unsportsmanlike on OSU and then a missed field goal.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: nicname on September 28, 2021, 07:56:12 AM
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

I rewatched the game last night and hadnt seen Lewis’s INT live. Lol that was so bad. It’s almost a certainty that Will would have done better. I still can’t believe that play where Henington twists Sanders ankle after he throws it resulted in a 15 yard unsportsmanlike on OSU and then a missed field goal.

Ryan Leaf was gold during that Henington play/replay.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: MakeItRain on September 28, 2021, 11:43:49 AM
Not concerned about the defense.   Offense very much concerned.
I think a healthy Will moves the ball in the second half. Don't think we'd win or we shouldn't be concerned, but it would have been more interesting.

I rewatched the game last night and hadnt seen Lewis’s INT live. Lol that was so bad. It’s almost a certainty that Will would have done better. I still can’t believe that play where Henington twists Sanders ankle after he throws it resulted in a 15 yard unsportsmanlike on OSU and then a missed field goal.

Not sure why Hennington twisted Sanders the way that he did but the referees didn't blow the whistle until Sanders was on his way down.
Title: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: sonofdaxjones on September 29, 2021, 03:16:54 PM
MoValley Messingham’s offense sure does struggle at times.

Goodness Snyder threw Kody Fuckin Cook out there and scored on those chumps
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2021, 11:01:30 AM
Week 5:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/ewGJC.png)

Unfortunately we once again had a big negative drive on offense.   The offense did look a lot better, but in order to beat the top teams more drives needed to end in TDs

Updated:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/jWxTe.png)



"QB" Productivity
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/7HJzW.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 10:28:40 AM
Week 7:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/44ILn.png)

Deja Vu

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/JLtcV.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/I7yAX.png)

Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on October 25, 2021, 11:05:01 AM
Week 8:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/unMzV.pngp)

Happily, this week we were able to overcome yet another disastrous start by the defense (and special teams).

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/iyD0V.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on November 01, 2021, 04:13:05 PM
Week 9:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/yUklL.png)
Stellar game from the defense.  Wasn't great to see the offense disappear for that stretch there, but a solid W nonetheless.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/BVzRk.png)
We're due for a defensive score.  This week is ripe for some.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on November 08, 2021, 11:12:52 AM
Week 10:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/uIAZP.png)

Drives 13 and 14 were a bad sequence, but other than that, we did what needed to be done to a shitty shitty team.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/0VilK.png)
Next week for that defensive score?
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: PurpleOil on November 08, 2021, 12:39:42 PM
Is drive #6 where we decided to punt on 4th and 2 even though we were averaging almost 10 yards per play?
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: MakeItRain on November 09, 2021, 03:35:25 AM
I didn't mind that. Don't get me wrong, I wish we went for it, but KU wasn't moving the ball at all and if something happened when we didn't get it they would have gotten momentum they were very much lacking. Also Klieman has brought some capital, because he's been pretty liberal in going for 4th downs this year.

My big issue with the play was how awful the spot was on Warner's catch. I went back and it was probably the full two yards off. You could conceivably say he was short, but if he was, it was less than a yard and Klieman probably goes for that.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: tdaver on November 09, 2021, 07:59:00 AM
I didn't mind that. Don't get me wrong, I wish we went for it, but KU wasn't moving the ball at all and if something happened when we didn't get it they would have gotten momentum they were very much lacking. Also Klieman has brought some capital, because he's been pretty liberal in going for 4th downs this year.

My big issue with the play was how awful the spot was on Warner's catch. I went back and it was probably the full two yards off. You could conceivably say he was short, but if he was, it was less than a yard and Klieman probably goes for that.

I haven’t watched a replay, but I thought the spot was fine at the time.  I remember the 1st down being at the KU 48.  The catch was made right at the line.  After getting pushed back to the 50, Warner briefly broke free before the second tacklers brought him down there.  Would have been a first down if he had gone down with the initial tackle.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on November 15, 2021, 11:34:41 AM
Week 11:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/dym31.png)

Our offense wasn't great in the first half outside of the first drive (but really good for the Cats is that we also didn't have a big negative offensive drive either which allowed the defense to do it's thing).  Both teams made obvious adjustments at the half, but WVU was already too far behind to catch up (although that sequence from 15-17 did trigger some nerves for me, WVU did score three drives in a row -- but Skylar recovered and put the game away).

Update:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/7eKKl.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: cfbandyman on November 15, 2021, 12:02:26 PM
That ballsy 4th down pass really made sure the game was out of reach.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on November 22, 2021, 11:20:47 AM
Week 12:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/Yl1D8.png)

One productive drive, and it was basically all Deuce on that one.  The defense played as well as expected, but it needed to score for us to win.  Giving up cheap points at the end of the first half and then backup QB sealed our fate as the offense was inert in the second half.

Updated:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/01LU3.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on November 22, 2021, 11:31:56 AM
The muffed punt that gave them the short field for their first TD was the play of the game. Huge mistake on a night when the offense didn't get anything going. Really solid effort by the defense. IIRC, our offense got no points from the Baylor TO. Our defense has some playmakers and is fun to watch again.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: Katpappy on November 22, 2021, 03:20:58 PM
What do you think of the call when the Baylor punt returner muffed the ball and said our guys interfered with the catch.  :bs:
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: ChiComCat on November 22, 2021, 03:33:26 PM
What do you think of the call when the Baylor punt returner muffed the ball and said our guys interfered with the catch.  :bs:

If kick catch interference requires contact, then the call was bad.  If it doesn't, then it was probably the right call.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: MakeItRain on November 22, 2021, 11:21:47 PM
What do you think of the call when the Baylor punt returner muffed the ball and said our guys interfered with the catch.  :bs:

If kick catch interference requires contact, then the call was bad.  If it doesn't, then it was probably the right call.

It does not but it was unquestionably a terrible call as not only did the returner run up to make the catch at the last minute but he wasn't interfered with. To make matters worse Brooks was absolutely interfered with on the punt directly before the one in question and that interference was uncalled.

Apologize for the quality in advance, these are photos of my television. The first shot is Brooks catching a ball he was completely stationary for. You can't even see him because he's being interfered with so badly.  Two different Baylor players are closer than Plattner was to the Baylor returner, and no you cannot block another member of the return team into the returner.

(https://i.ibb.co/xChmHYf/PXL-20211123-050018568.jpg)

This is the Baylor returner, you can see that Plattner isn't even in front of the dude. What you can't see is the returner is running to get to the ball and the ball hits the turf before the Baylor returner can even get to the ball.

(https://i.ibb.co/zP7kc1N/PXL-20211123-050144438.jpg)

The call was inexplicably bad and inconsistent and no K-State fan should feel like they have to excuse what the back judge didn't do, then did just 3 minutes later.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on November 23, 2021, 09:02:00 AM
i understand the spirit of the rule, but i think it needs modification for instances where the returner intentionally "deeks" the coverage team. Like if you are just standing there looking up and have signaled fair catch, and then at the very last second decide to run up to catch the ball...i dunno that seems like that puts an unfair burden on the coverage team to 1) know exactly where the ball is in flight relative to the returner and 2) also not interfere with that player. Its kind of like when a QB is running and sorta motions like they are going to slide so the defender pulls up but then instead of sliding they keep running. I think they have cracked down on that so if a QB appears to be giving himself up then the play is dead regardless of whether or not he actually goes into a slide.

The only time I think its okay with the punt returner deeking the coverage team is when he is pretending to catch the punt even though his is nowhere near it in the hopes that it will bounce into the endzone instead of getting downed by the cover team deep in his own territory. In that case though he is not actually trying to make a play on the ball so there is no risk of legitimate interference to him catching the punt.

They should modify the rule such that if you wave for a fair catch, the cover team has the right to assume you have positioned yourself to catch the ball, and if you decide to make a last second run up then you do so at your own risk. As long as they are not interfering with your position that you were standing in after you signaled fair catch. If you want to do the last second deek then you should only be allowed to do it if you haven't signaled fair catch.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: CHONGS on November 29, 2021, 03:01:11 PM
Week 13:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/I8yBi.png)
Offense just dies after the 6th drive.  We needed a ST or DEF score to win, but it never came.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/E6tWt.png)
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on November 29, 2021, 03:13:04 PM
good turnaround by the defense though
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: cfbandyman on November 29, 2021, 04:27:30 PM
good turnaround by the defense though

Yeah, it looked for decent stretches of the game the d-line was getting mushed but to their credit they never really gave up nor was Texas able to complete their destruction, if anything it kinda woke us up.

Offense, really the second half, was just atrocious (obv) in the second half. The first two drives especially. We had a great return, and a couple of good plays and then just ate it. Then we get the ball back in almost the same position, and did even less. That wasn't the ball game, but it definitely changed it from us looking like we were going to put the game away to us put back on our heels.

It's still crazy after all of that, it came down to that last drive for us and not able to get that damn first down on two tries from less than a yard, simply inexcusable and we were once again looking like we were rolling a bit, until we were.

The game was just frustrating because we beat ourselves, and really our coaches put the team in bad situations. I hate to even bring it up but a Snyder team wins that game like 34-22 at least.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on November 29, 2021, 04:34:30 PM
The game was just frustrating because we beat ourselves, and really our coaches put the team in bad situations. I hate to even bring it up but a Snyder team wins that game like 34-22 at least.

yes, I mean look at how Snyder steamrolled Vandy in 2017
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on November 29, 2021, 04:37:57 PM
also, outside of the waters/lockett year, there weren't many road wins by more than 10 after 2012. the only one I could find was this crazy jam (I don't remember watching for some reason). (and @KU of course)

https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=333132641
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: cfbandyman on November 29, 2021, 05:49:11 PM
The game was just frustrating because we beat ourselves, and really our coaches put the team in bad situations. I hate to even bring it up but a Snyder team wins that game like 34-22 at least.

yes, I mean look at how Snyder steamrolled Vandy in 2017

Lolz, that Vandy game was lost because several momentum changing plays were either called back or negated due to officiating, or lack of success on 1st and second down, not because we couldn't push the ball rough ridin' 6 inches, get real.

You really think Snyder would not allow us to not get 1/2 yard in all 4 situations that showed up? FFS that's all that needed to happen in that goddamn game. Snyder had some wtf games, but come on man. I seriously (outside of Baylor 2012) I cannot think of any instance on *pick a less than 1 yard situation* we couldn't convert with any sort of regularity, and in this game we couldn't do it once, and it had nothing to do with our o-line sucking ass. As Mir pointed out freaking Duece still ended up with over 6 YPC.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: MakeItRain on November 29, 2021, 05:58:20 PM
The game was just frustrating because we beat ourselves, and really our coaches put the team in bad situations. I hate to even bring it up but a Snyder team wins that game like 34-22 at least.

yes, I mean look at how Snyder steamrolled Vandy in 2017

Come on dude, that's a ridiculous cherry pick. That 2017 team had nothing close to Deuce. There is a Snyder era comp to that Texas game and it was the 2010 Texas game. I promise you that if Snyder had a running QB and an all american running back against one of the worst defenses in the country, he'd run those two until their legs fell off and they both had 3 concussions each
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on November 29, 2021, 06:00:43 PM
You really think Snyder would not allow us to not get 1/2 yard in all 4 situations that showed up?

No, I don't think it's a given that he would have won a conference road game by more than 10 points, because that's something that he hardly ever did in his second tenure.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: MakeItRain on November 29, 2021, 06:04:25 PM
You really think Snyder would not allow us to not get 1/2 yard in all 4 situations that showed up?

No, I don't think it's a given that he would have won a conference road game by more than 10 points, because that's something that he hardly ever did in his second tenure.

No, we don't win that game by double digits against Texas because Snyder would have played even slower than Klieman did.
Title: Re: Game Recaps by Drive
Post by: michigancat on November 29, 2021, 06:05:58 PM
The game was just frustrating because we beat ourselves, and really our coaches put the team in bad situations. I hate to even bring it up but a Snyder team wins that game like 34-22 at least.

yes, I mean look at how Snyder steamrolled Vandy in 2017

Come on dude, that's a ridiculous cherry pick. That 2017 team had nothing close to Deuce. There is a Snyder era comp to that Texas game and it was the 2010 Texas game. I promise you that if Snyder had a running QB and an all american running back against one of the worst defenses in the country, he'd run those two until their legs fell off and they both had 3 concussions each

maybe a better comparison would be 2015 at 5-7 Texas where we lost 23-9?

Also Snyder 2.0 never had an all-american running back, so....