Poll

when will the united states have more than 250k dead from covid 19?

on or before 10/20/2020
1 (4.5%)
10/21/2020-11/3/2020
6 (27.3%)
11/4/2020-11/20/2020
5 (22.7%)
11/20/2020-12/15/2020
6 (27.3%)
12/16/2020 or later (or never)
4 (18.2%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: August 13, 2020, 01:35:07 AM

Author Topic: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll  (Read 3943 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 48010
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2020, 07:54:07 PM »
I've seen enough, this'll be done in two days


Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 37580
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2020, 11:48:49 PM »
I've seen enough, this'll be done in two days

small chance we might hit tomorrow (friday the 13th), but yeah, probably the 14th.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 18605
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2020, 07:51:05 AM »
Too pessimistic by one bin... think it’s the first time I’ve undershot
:adios:

Offline Cire

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 16498
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2020, 09:36:29 AM »
unreal

Offline cfbandyman

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5600
  • To da 'ville.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #29 on: November 14, 2020, 08:32:34 AM »
11/14 is the date
A&M Style: 1/19/13 Co-Champion of THE ED's College Basketball Challenge

The art of the deal with it poors


Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 37580
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2020, 04:47:29 PM »
congratulations to all the posters who chose the third bin.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #31 on: November 24, 2020, 03:48:04 PM »
Pennsylvania becomes the 8th state with a five figure death total.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #32 on: December 04, 2020, 05:32:28 PM »
300K is so close.

Offline waks

  • this blog's dick pic expert
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3001
  • Aggieville's Original Gastropub
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #33 on: December 04, 2020, 06:45:51 PM »
Just a bad flu season you guys.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #34 on: December 07, 2020, 12:26:39 PM »
Pennsylvania Michigan becomes the 8th 9th state with a five figure death total.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2020, 04:26:09 PM by Sandstone Outcropping »

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile

Online Phil Titola

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 13584
  • He took it out!
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #36 on: December 11, 2020, 10:32:24 AM »
Haven't looked at the CDC excessive deaths data for awhile.  Looks like we don't have a week it hasn't been significantly above normal.  Earlier this summer some on here were pointing to this that we're on the right path forward

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 37580
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #37 on: December 11, 2020, 10:36:28 AM »
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #38 on: December 11, 2020, 10:38:40 AM »
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #39 on: December 11, 2020, 04:25:27 PM »
Pennsylvania Michigan Georgia becomes the 8th 9th 10th state with a five figure death total.

KS now with over 2000 deaths

Offline cfbandyman

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5600
  • To da 'ville.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #40 on: December 11, 2020, 05:04:45 PM »
300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
A&M Style: 1/19/13 Co-Champion of THE ED's College Basketball Challenge

The art of the deal with it poors


Offline cfbandyman

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5600
  • To da 'ville.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #41 on: December 11, 2020, 05:07:40 PM »
Sorry, July

300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.

What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back.  When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:

300k by year's end is certainly possible.  I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.

Hey, I don't want it to happen either, but yeah, I can understand that it seems damn near impossible that this year still has over 150 days/5 months to more to go. Feels like the end of the year should happen like two months from now, but it was like when we crossed the "100 days to election!" a few days ago and I'm like, "100 days? holy crap this is still forever away"

That's just where my calcs (guess) came from, I will admit I think 300k is probably on the high end, but like, not that high.
A&M Style: 1/19/13 Co-Champion of THE ED's College Basketball Challenge

The art of the deal with it poors


Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #42 on: December 11, 2020, 05:54:52 PM »
300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
Why are you shocked, the USA isn’t like some shithole country that does COVID in a small, halfhearted way. We are doing it all the way.

Online chum1

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19827
  • Gucci Mane Book Reader
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #43 on: December 18, 2020, 04:09:53 PM »
Quote
561,669 COVID-19 deaths
based on Current projection scenario by April 1, 2021

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Online chum1

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19827
  • Gucci Mane Book Reader
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #44 on: December 23, 2020, 08:00:19 AM »
I suppose there's a decent chance 2021 could be worse based on the above projection.


Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #45 on: December 23, 2020, 10:43:44 AM »
I suppose there's a decent chance 2021 could be worse based on the above projection.

:frown:

Offline waks

  • this blog's dick pic expert
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3001
  • Aggieville's Original Gastropub
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #46 on: December 23, 2020, 01:04:26 PM »
Just a bad flu season.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 37580
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #47 on: December 23, 2020, 01:20:24 PM »
1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 3888
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #48 on: December 23, 2020, 01:55:56 PM »
1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
:frown:

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 37580
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
« Reply #49 on: December 30, 2020, 03:27:00 AM »
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.

just noticed that we're at 346.5k, so we'll hit 350k for the year.  possibly on 12/30, but definitely on 12/31 if we miss.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."