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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on August 09, 2020, 01:35:07 AM
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to be determined from the worldometers.com count. as of 8/8/2020 we are at 165K
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My estimate was at least in the middle of a range this time
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the fourth category should start on 11/21, not 11/20. sorry if anyone's decision was impacted.
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Once the school outbreaks hit people will take it more seriously
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Doubtful
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https://twitter.com/nipunchopra7/status/1292486706491514880?s=21
Who to believe???
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don't die, vote.
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cases are well down from their peak. have to see tomorrow's numbers, but it looks like deaths will be down this week compared to last, although probably not by much.
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1295842716526325760
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Over 190,000 US deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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over 200.
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over 200.
A complete disaster.
22 deaths reported in Kansas today
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Le sigh
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10/1 update - we're at 212 and change. it's not quite impossible that we get to 250k before the election, but it's pretty close.
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Is there something trump might do that would cause covid deaths in areas that are voting against him?
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Is there something trump might do that would cause covid deaths in areas that are voting against him?
i don't think so.
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it looks like we're probably at or very close to our late summer nadir in deaths. based on this, i'll go ahead and guess we get to 250 right around 11/20.
https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1315072664894083074
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man, what a eff up.
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We can get to #3
https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1315094697996673024
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it looks like we're probably at or very close to our late summer nadir in deaths. based on this, i'll go ahead and guess we get to 250 right around 11/20.
https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1315072664894083074
I'll take the under.
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under meaning earlier or later?
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Over 220K US COVID deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Over 800 KS deaths:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/kansas/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/kansas/)
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Looks like option 3 is going to win here.
Any thoughts as to what day we will hit peak virus cases and the number of new daily cases at the peak?
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Looks like option 3 is going to win here.
Any thoughts as to what day we will hit peak virus cases and the number of new daily cases at the peak?
I think Gottleib threw out Thanksgiving.
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Looks like option 3 is going to win here.
Any thoughts as to what day we will hit peak virus cases and the number of new daily cases at the peak?
still a shot at an incredibly embarrassing 11/20 date.
I think we hit peak virus cases mid-late January (post Christmas effects)
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still a shot at an incredibly embarrassing 11/20 date.
looks like it should hit before the 20th, thankfully.
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I've seen enough, this'll be done in two days
(https://i.imgur.com/SETXeyJ.png)
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I've seen enough, this'll be done in two days
small chance we might hit tomorrow (friday the 13th), but yeah, probably the 14th.
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Too pessimistic by one bin... think it’s the first time I’ve undershot
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unreal
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11/14 is the date
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congratulations to all the posters who chose the third bin.
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Pennsylvania becomes the 8th state with a five figure death total.
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300K is so close.
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Just a bad flu season you guys.
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Pennsylvania Michigan becomes the 8th 9th state with a five figure death total.
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300K
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
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Haven't looked at the CDC excessive deaths data for awhile. Looks like we don't have a week it hasn't been significantly above normal. Earlier this summer some on here were pointing to this that we're on the right path forward
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
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300K
did that last 50k in under a month. wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
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300K
did that last 50k in under a month. wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.
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Pennsylvania Michigan Georgia becomes the 8th 9th 10th state with a five figure death total.
KS now with over 2000 deaths
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300K
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
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Sorry, July
300K
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.
That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.
I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely. 100k more by March seems even more unlikely.
Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back. When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:
300k by year's end is certainly possible. I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.
Hey, I don't want it to happen either, but yeah, I can understand that it seems damn near impossible that this year still has over 150 days/5 months to more to go. Feels like the end of the year should happen like two months from now, but it was like when we crossed the "100 days to election!" a few days ago and I'm like, "100 days? holy crap this is still forever away"
That's just where my calcs (guess) came from, I will admit I think 300k is probably on the high end, but like, not that high.
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300K
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
Why are you shocked, the USA isn’t like some shithole country that does COVID in a small, halfhearted way. We are doing it all the way.
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561,669 COVID-19 deaths
based on Current projection scenario by April 1, 2021
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
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I suppose there's a decent chance 2021 could be worse based on the above projection.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1341394335363952656
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I suppose there's a decent chance 2021 could be worse based on the above projection.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1341394335363952656
:frown:
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Just a bad flu season.
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1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
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1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
:frown:
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300K
did that last 50k in under a month. wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.
just noticed that we're at 346.5k, so we'll hit 350k for the year. possibly on 12/30, but definitely on 12/31 if we miss.
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300K
did that last 50k in under a month. wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.
just noticed that we're at 346.5k, so we'll hit 350k for the year. possibly on 12/30, but definitely on 12/31 if we miss.
350,000 in 2020 with a day to spare.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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i never doubted us.
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Hopefully it only gets to half that in 2021, I’m assuming it’s going to kick our ass for the next 3-4 months and then it will be our turn to do the ass kicking
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Hopefully it only gets to half that in 2021, I’m assuming it’s going to kick our ass for the next 3-4 months and then it will be our turn to do the ass kicking
IHME predicting 567K by 4/1/2021.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend)
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Taking into account the advances in every aspect of life (including medicine) in the past 100 years, the fact that the COVID death count in the U.S. will be close to the 1918 pandemic death count (675k) is simply astonishing.
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Yes. It speaks mainly to two things:
—The utter incompetence of the Trump administration
—The absolute selfishness of Americans
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Yes. It speaks mainly to two things:
—The utter incompetence of the Trump administration
—The absolute selfishness of Americans
Maybe it speaks to the fact that the US population is 3.5 times higher now than in 1918.
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Covid 19: actually when you look at it per capita it's fewer deaths than 1918.
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Kansas now over 3k deaths. In the 1/1000 club. Still below the nationwide death average.
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aside from people carrying the confederate battle flag through the capitol, 4100 americans were recorded as having died of coronavirus yesterday, which i believe is our new daily high.
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aside from people carrying the confederate battle flag through the capitol, 4100 americans were recorded as having died of coronavirus yesterday, which i believe is our new daily high.
Not just our daily high, a new world record!
Over 500 deaths reported in California (probably a data dump from the holidays in there). I'm not very good at stats but I think we are pretty on-track to hit 400K by Jan 20.
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279K new US cases yest. 4.2K deaths
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crap is horribly grim.
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306K new cases reported in the US yesterday.
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Past 393K deaths today. Will hit 400K by next Wed with no problem. May hit 450K by the end of Jan
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Next 8 weeks are going to be so so bad.
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We passed 400K today.
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We passed 400K today.
Yeah, and I'd hate to say no real surprise. I think we hit 500k before February is over with. I think we'll end up at around 600-650k when this is all "over"
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Is that higher or lower than 10k?
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1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
we got to 1 out of every 500 americans recently; probably saturday or sunday.
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Could be delays in reporting with Labor day and the hurricane but it looks like we could be getting to some sort of plateau (hopefully peak) nationally with the delta wave.
Per these figures from the KS hospital association, KS COVID hospitalizations seem to be plateaued / trending down: https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/ (https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/)
IHME predicting 750K deaths in the US by 12/1/21. (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)
https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk (https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk)
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Could be delays in reporting with Labor day and the hurricane but it looks like we could be getting to some sort of plateau (hopefully peak) nationally with the delta wave.
Per these figures from the KS hospital association, KS COVID hospitalizations seem to be plateaued / trending down: https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/ (https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/)
IHME predicting 750K deaths in the US by 12/1/21. (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)
https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk (https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk)
This is just a hunch, but there were just hundreds of thousands of south Louisianans who evacuated to other places around the country over the last two weeks. I’m predicting a spike.
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1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
we got to 1 out of every 500 americans recently; probably saturday or sunday.
Now past 1/500: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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Man, we might cross a million.
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Also MS has surpassed NJ to take the deaths per capita title belt
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It's the Blacks' fault
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There are many per capita's
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We cross 700K sometime today:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
IHME projecting 776K by Jan 1, 2022 (a little over 3 mos away). Should make it without breaking a sweat:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)
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Kansas is now north of 6K. The Gov Kelly has ordered flags to be at half staff again.
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Could be delays in reporting with Labor day and the hurricane but it looks like we could be getting to some sort of plateau (hopefully peak) nationally with the delta wave.
Per these figures from the KS hospital association, KS COVID hospitalizations seem to be plateaued / trending down: https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/ (https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/)
IHME predicting 750K deaths in the US by 12/1/21. (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)
https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk (https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk)
Past 752K per worldometers. IHME is a bunch of sunshine pumpers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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US goes past 800K sometime today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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We might have a Million MAGA March after all.
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Somewhere KSU Wildcats is wondering why a mild flu season has gotten so much attention.
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US goes past 800K sometime today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
pretty amazing.
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we probably would have got there eventually regardless, but with the addition of the omicron variant, it seems very likely to me that we'll hit one million american deaths sooner rather than later. i don't have a great timeline, but i'd be pretty surprised if we don't get there before july of 2022.
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we probably would have got there eventually regardless, but with the addition of the omicron variant, it seems very likely to me that we'll hit one million american deaths sooner rather than later. i don't have a great timeline, but i'd be pretty surprised if we don't get there before july of 2022.
Depending on how high this delta / omicron wave rises, we could be back at 2K+ deaths per day soon as we go into winter with zero mitigation happening in the areas of the US with the lowest vax rates. IMHE is predicting 1M sometime in Feb 2022.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)
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So at what point do people that got a their vax in Feb/Mar 2021 but didn’t get boosted become just as vulnerable as unvaxxed?
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So at what point do people that got a their vax in Feb/Mar 2021 but didn’t get boosted become just as vulnerable as unvaxxed?
I don't think they ever become that vulnerable. It is a spectrum. They are just less protected than someone who is boosted. Especially true for elderly / immunocompromised who have a higher baseline risk and don't mount as robust of a response to the vaccine as a young person.
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So at what point do people that got a their vax in Feb/Mar 2021 but didn’t get boosted become just as vulnerable as unvaxxed?
at the point where almost all the unvaccinated have survived an infection.
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IMHE is predicting 1M sometime in Feb 2022.
that seems too soon to me. my guess would be more like late march/early april.
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It's the million MAGA March because it's happening in March.
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IMHE is predicting 1M sometime in Feb 2022.
that seems too soon to me. my guess would be more like late march/early april.
It seems pretty soon. Could be a good death poll topic. OTOH, another death poll seems kind of depressing.
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Could be a good death poll topic. OTOH, another death poll seems kind of depressing.
maybe i'll make one. the addition of omicron makes it interesting.
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Kansas passes 7K deaths.
Currently 1200 Kansans hospitalized due to Covid
https://www.kha-net.org/DataProductsandServices/STAT/Dashboard/d157638.aspx?type=view (https://www.kha-net.org/DataProductsandServices/STAT/Dashboard/d157638.aspx?type=view)
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:curse:
https://twitter.com/Andre__Damon/status/1482069977826009092
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Well, that's one way to end a pandemic....
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Biden administration handling COVID quite well :lol:
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Biden is doing all the crap Trump couldn’t get done.
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Well, that's one way to end a pandemic....
In the words of lil flip “game over”
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US goes past 800K sometime today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
pretty amazing.
900k
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So omicron killing people now or still people that got delta?
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So omicron killing people now or still people that got delta?
There are still a few people who got infected with delta last month that are hospitalized and dying. All the new infections are Omicron. KDHE says over 99% omicron in KS as of a week ago.
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the bad news is omicron is killing 3k americans/day. the good news is they're all unvaccinated.
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we probably would have got there eventually regardless, but with the addition of the omicron variant, it seems very likely to me that we'll hit one million american deaths sooner rather than later. i don't have a great timeline, but i'd be pretty surprised if we don't get there before july of 2022.
IMHE is predicting 1M sometime in Feb 2022.
that seems too soon to me. my guess would be more like late march/early april.
1,000,000. 3/23/2022
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
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what a moment.
and in just a few more days we should also hit the 1 out of every 333 2020 americans has died from covid mark.
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what a moment.
and in just a few more days we should also hit the 1 out of every 333 2020 americans has died from covid mark.
Really a tragedy. The one silver lining would be that barring the emergence of a new supervariant the worst of this should be in the rear-view mirror due to high levels of immunity in the population from prior infection and/or awesome mRNA chips.