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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on August 09, 2020, 01:35:07 AM

Title: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on August 09, 2020, 01:35:07 AM
to be determined from the worldometers.com count.  as of 8/8/2020 we are at 165K
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: michigancat on August 09, 2020, 10:58:58 AM
My estimate was at least in the middle of a range this time
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on August 10, 2020, 12:42:24 AM
the fourth category should start on 11/21, not 11/20.  sorry if anyone's decision was impacted.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Cire on August 10, 2020, 08:06:27 AM
Once the school outbreaks hit people will take it more seriously
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Chingon on August 10, 2020, 08:49:57 AM
Doubtful
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Cire on August 10, 2020, 11:27:44 AM
?s=21

Who to believe???


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Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on August 12, 2020, 12:57:44 AM
don't die, vote.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on August 18, 2020, 05:20:05 PM
cases are well down from their peak.  have to see tomorrow's numbers, but it looks like deaths will be down this week compared to last, although probably not by much.

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 03, 2020, 08:40:05 AM
Over 190,000 US deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on September 15, 2020, 05:55:27 PM
over 200.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 15, 2020, 05:58:11 PM
over 200.
A complete disaster.

22 deaths reported in Kansas today
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: cfbandyman on September 16, 2020, 09:41:17 AM
Le sigh

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on October 01, 2020, 07:46:38 PM
10/1 update - we're at 212 and change.  it's not quite impossible that we get to 250k before the election, but it's pretty close.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Trim on October 01, 2020, 09:25:36 PM
Is there something trump might do that would cause covid deaths in areas that are voting against him?
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on October 01, 2020, 09:50:33 PM
Is there something trump might do that would cause covid deaths in areas that are voting against him?

i don't think so.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on October 10, 2020, 07:04:08 PM
it looks like we're probably at or very close to our late summer nadir in deaths.  based on this, i'll go ahead and guess we get to 250 right around 11/20.

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on October 10, 2020, 07:45:05 PM
man, what a eff up.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: chum1 on October 10, 2020, 09:50:43 PM
We can get to #3

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: bucket on October 10, 2020, 11:59:41 PM
it looks like we're probably at or very close to our late summer nadir in deaths.  based on this, i'll go ahead and guess we get to 250 right around 11/20.


I'll take the under.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on October 11, 2020, 11:04:54 AM
under meaning earlier or later?
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on October 13, 2020, 10:42:51 AM
Over 220K US COVID deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

Over 800 KS deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/kansas/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/kansas/)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on November 02, 2020, 10:31:00 AM
Looks like option 3 is going to win here.

Any thoughts as to what day we will hit peak virus cases and the number of new daily cases at the peak?
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Phil Titola on November 02, 2020, 11:27:31 AM
Looks like option 3 is going to win here.

Any thoughts as to what day we will hit peak virus cases and the number of new daily cases at the peak?

I think Gottleib threw out Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: michigancat on November 02, 2020, 11:37:51 AM
Looks like option 3 is going to win here.

Any thoughts as to what day we will hit peak virus cases and the number of new daily cases at the peak?

still a shot at an incredibly embarrassing 11/20 date.

I think we hit peak virus cases mid-late January (post Christmas effects)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on November 02, 2020, 06:38:45 PM
still a shot at an incredibly embarrassing 11/20 date.

looks like it should hit before the 20th, thankfully.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: michigancat on November 12, 2020, 07:54:07 PM
I've seen enough, this'll be done in two days

(https://i.imgur.com/SETXeyJ.png)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on November 12, 2020, 11:48:49 PM
I've seen enough, this'll be done in two days

small chance we might hit tomorrow (friday the 13th), but yeah, probably the 14th.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: 8manpick on November 13, 2020, 07:51:05 AM
Too pessimistic by one bin... think it’s the first time I’ve undershot
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Cire on November 13, 2020, 09:36:29 AM
unreal
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: cfbandyman on November 14, 2020, 08:32:34 AM
11/14 is the date
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on November 14, 2020, 04:47:29 PM
congratulations to all the posters who chose the third bin.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on November 24, 2020, 03:48:04 PM
Pennsylvania becomes the 8th state with a five figure death total.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 04, 2020, 05:32:28 PM
300K is so close.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: waks on December 04, 2020, 06:45:51 PM
Just a bad flu season you guys.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 07, 2020, 12:26:39 PM
Pennsylvania Michigan becomes the 8th 9th state with a five figure death total.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 11, 2020, 10:28:49 AM
300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Phil Titola on December 11, 2020, 10:32:24 AM
Haven't looked at the CDC excessive deaths data for awhile.  Looks like we don't have a week it hasn't been significantly above normal.  Earlier this summer some on here were pointing to this that we're on the right path forward

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on December 11, 2020, 10:36:28 AM
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 11, 2020, 10:38:40 AM
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 11, 2020, 04:25:27 PM
Pennsylvania Michigan Georgia becomes the 8th 9th 10th state with a five figure death total.

KS now with over 2000 deaths
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: cfbandyman on December 11, 2020, 05:04:45 PM
300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)

I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: cfbandyman on December 11, 2020, 05:07:40 PM
Sorry, July

300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)

I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.

What was KSU-W's prediction again? 40k? I mean his modified prediction, of course. I believe his initial prediction was around 10k.

That was def his first prediction, it was stupid as hell. I do think he revised to to 40 or 50k.

I will say barring anything spectacular one way or another, I think by the end of 2020, we'll probably be pretty close to 300k (and at least past 250k), and by full calendar year (March 2021) I think we'll be probably around 400k. Now that we have entered the nearly 1000/day average pretty regularly we'll unfortunately probably hang around that value for several weeks.
“Assuming nothing crazy happens,” I think 300k by year end would be highly unlikely.   100k more by March seems even more unlikely.

Schools? People now being cooped up inside? It seems more likely to me, and this thing has powered through summer pretty well and is still slowly building.
Yeah I want to walk that back.  When I wrote that I was miscalculating how many days were left in the year. :blindfold:

300k by year's end is certainly possible.  I'd bet against it, but i'm chronically and incorrectly optimistic about this.

Hey, I don't want it to happen either, but yeah, I can understand that it seems damn near impossible that this year still has over 150 days/5 months to more to go. Feels like the end of the year should happen like two months from now, but it was like when we crossed the "100 days to election!" a few days ago and I'm like, "100 days? holy crap this is still forever away"

That's just where my calcs (guess) came from, I will admit I think 300k is probably on the high end, but like, not that high.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 11, 2020, 05:54:52 PM
300K

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)

I remember back in like August or September saying we had a good chance at that. Not happy, and even a little shocked we got it with so many days left in 2020.
Why are you shocked, the USA isn’t like some shithole country that does COVID in a small, halfhearted way. We are doing it all the way.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: chum1 on December 18, 2020, 04:09:53 PM
Quote
561,669 COVID-19 deaths
based on Current projection scenario by April 1, 2021

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: chum1 on December 23, 2020, 08:00:19 AM
I suppose there's a decent chance 2021 could be worse based on the above projection.

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 23, 2020, 10:43:44 AM
I suppose there's a decent chance 2021 could be worse based on the above projection.

:frown:
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: waks on December 23, 2020, 01:04:26 PM
Just a bad flu season.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on December 23, 2020, 01:20:24 PM
1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 23, 2020, 01:55:56 PM
1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.
:frown:
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on December 30, 2020, 03:27:00 AM
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.

just noticed that we're at 346.5k, so we'll hit 350k for the year.  possibly on 12/30, but definitely on 12/31 if we miss.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 30, 2020, 06:47:55 PM
300K

did that last 50k in under a month.  wonder if we can get to 350 before the end of the year.
It'll be close. 400K by inauguration day is an outside possibility.

just noticed that we're at 346.5k, so we'll hit 350k for the year.  possibly on 12/30, but definitely on 12/31 if we miss.
350,000 in 2020 with a day to spare.
 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on December 30, 2020, 09:27:51 PM
i never doubted us.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: wetwillie on December 31, 2020, 05:22:28 AM
Hopefully it only gets to half that in 2021, I’m assuming it’s going to kick our ass for the next 3-4 months and then it will be our turn to do the ass kicking
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on December 31, 2020, 08:52:11 AM
Hopefully it only gets to half that in 2021, I’m assuming it’s going to kick our ass for the next 3-4 months and then it will be our turn to do the ass kicking
IHME predicting 567K by 4/1/2021.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Kid In the Hall on December 31, 2020, 12:04:06 PM
Taking into account the advances in every aspect of life (including medicine) in the past 100 years, the fact that the COVID death count in the U.S. will be close to the 1918 pandemic death count (675k) is simply astonishing.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: SkinnyBenny on December 31, 2020, 02:52:56 PM
Yes. It speaks mainly to two things:
—The utter incompetence of the Trump administration
—The absolute selfishness of Americans
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Justwin on December 31, 2020, 03:12:23 PM
Yes. It speaks mainly to two things:
—The utter incompetence of the Trump administration
—The absolute selfishness of Americans

Maybe it speaks to the fact that the US population is 3.5 times higher now than in 1918.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: steve dave on December 31, 2020, 03:26:39 PM
Covid 19: actually when you look at it per capita it's fewer deaths than 1918.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 06, 2021, 05:25:46 PM
Kansas now over 3k deaths. In the 1/1000 club. Still below the nationwide death average.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on January 07, 2021, 10:37:00 AM
aside from people carrying the confederate battle flag through the capitol, 4100 americans were recorded as having died of coronavirus yesterday, which i believe is our new daily high.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 07, 2021, 10:49:38 AM
aside from people carrying the confederate battle flag through the capitol, 4100 americans were recorded as having died of coronavirus yesterday, which i believe is our new daily high.
Not just our daily high, a new world record!

Over 500 deaths reported in California (probably a data dump from the holidays in there). I'm not very good at stats but I think we are pretty on-track to hit 400K by Jan 20.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 08, 2021, 09:06:36 AM
279K new US cases yest. 4.2K deaths
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: steve dave on January 08, 2021, 09:18:19 AM
crap is horribly grim.


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Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 09, 2021, 11:21:37 AM
306K new cases reported in the US yesterday.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 13, 2021, 05:00:23 PM
Past 393K deaths today. Will hit 400K by next Wed with no problem. May hit 450K by the end of Jan
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: wetwillie on January 13, 2021, 06:15:47 PM
Next 8 weeks are going to be so so bad.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 15, 2021, 03:28:32 PM
We passed 400K today.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: cfbandyman on January 15, 2021, 03:58:14 PM
We passed 400K today.

Yeah, and I'd hate to say no real surprise. I think we hit 500k before February is over with. I think we'll end up at around 600-650k when this is all "over"
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: DaBigTrain on January 15, 2021, 04:00:58 PM
Is that higher or lower than 10k?
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: sys on September 08, 2021, 09:53:22 PM
1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.

we got to 1 out of every 500 americans recently; probably saturday or sunday.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 09, 2021, 12:54:38 PM
Could be delays in reporting with Labor day and the hurricane but it looks like we could be getting to some sort of plateau (hopefully peak) nationally with the delta wave.

Per these figures from the KS hospital association, KS COVID hospitalizations seem to be plateaued / trending down: https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/ (https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/)

IHME predicting 750K deaths in the US by 12/1/21. (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)

https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk (https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk)

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: SkinnyBenny on September 10, 2021, 03:39:47 PM
Could be delays in reporting with Labor day and the hurricane but it looks like we could be getting to some sort of plateau (hopefully peak) nationally with the delta wave.

Per these figures from the KS hospital association, KS COVID hospitalizations seem to be plateaued / trending down: https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/ (https://www.kha-net.org/CriticalIssues/HospitalPreparedness/covid-19/)

IHME predicting 750K deaths in the US by 12/1/21. (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)

https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk (https://youtu.be/Sj8UbmdV7bk)

This is just a hunch, but there were just hundreds of thousands of south Louisianans who evacuated to other places around the country over the last two weeks. I’m predicting a spike.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 15, 2021, 08:19:18 AM
1 out of every 1000 2019 americans was killed by coronavirus in 2020 as of today.

we got to 1 out of every 500 americans recently; probably saturday or sunday.
Now past 1/500:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on September 15, 2021, 09:18:05 AM
Man, we might cross a million.
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 15, 2021, 09:54:11 AM
Also MS has surpassed NJ to take the deaths per capita title belt
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Cire on September 15, 2021, 10:02:49 AM
It's the Blacks' fault

Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: star seed 7 on September 15, 2021, 10:12:52 AM
There are many per capita's
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 23, 2021, 09:12:30 AM
We cross 700K sometime today:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

IHME projecting 776K by Jan 1, 2022 (a little over 3 mos away). Should make it without breaking a sweat:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend)
Title: Re: death poll 8.0: a schools, the election, vaccines and everything poll
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on September 28, 2021, 01:10:25 PM
Kansas is now north of 6K. The Gov Kelly has ordered flags to be at half staff again.