Author Topic: political hobbyist thread (Read 44464 times)

MakeItRain · « **Reply #50 on:** June 24, 2020, 02:01:28 AM »

Quote from: memphis on June 23, 2020, 08:21:09 PM

Vox.com: DC statehood is closer now than it has ever been.
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/22/21293168/dc-statehood-vote-filibuster-supreme-court-joe-biden

Happy for my brothers and sisters.

sys · « **Reply #51 on:** July 08, 2020, 01:03:03 PM »

lots of implications for '22 and beyond. probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1280899352685359115

chum1 · « **Reply #52 on:** July 08, 2020, 01:15:19 PM »

Being out of The White House and in the minority in both chambers seems like it would go a long way toward bringing pubs back together. Their common hate of elite, libs, the media, etc. is very strong.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #53 on:** July 08, 2020, 01:32:31 PM »

Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution

Dugout DickStone · « **Reply #54 on:** July 08, 2020, 01:37:18 PM »

Quote from: star seed 7 on July 08, 2020, 01:32:31 PM

Very true, there is nothing conservatives love more than complaining about imaginary persecution

It is not a love, it is a rallying cry to motivate the base.

sys · « **Reply #55 on:** July 17, 2020, 09:37:44 AM »

Quote from: sys on May 08, 2020, 04:54:26 PM

shor is one of the more interesting people i've encountered on twitter and this is an interesting tweet.

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1258756577877725190

this is a fantastic, wide-ranging interview with shor. great for challenging your basic understanding about how politics in the united states functions (no matter where you are on the political spectrum, i think you'll find something where shor articulates that your understanding is incorrect).

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1284107724284932099

Kat Kid · « **Reply #56 on:** July 17, 2020, 10:35:26 AM »

I definitely think that is an interesting point. But I would like to see some comparison on union membership.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #57 on:** July 17, 2020, 06:16:20 PM »

Quote from: sys on July 08, 2020, 01:03:03 PM

lots of implications for '22 and beyond. probably the most interesting thing in american politics from a hobbyist perspective is how republicans will react to repudiation in 2020.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1280899352685359115

If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government. Trumpism doesn't stand for any conservative ideals but is about being against what's perceived as liberal and has unnecessarily put the Republican party at odds with conservatives. Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.

sys · « **Reply #58 on:** July 18, 2020, 09:10:11 AM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on July 17, 2020, 06:16:20 PM

If they are smart, they'll return to being the party of a small, non-interventionist government... Leave the social issues alone, they really aren't the federal government's place anyway. Focus on spending and the deficit. 2020 could be a huge opportunity for the Republicans by ditching Trumpism, which didn't start with Trump. The Democratic Party is a mess and the 2020 election has the potential make it worse, even if they do win the Senate.

i don't think there is much of a market for that brand of conservativism. it doesn't fulfill the policy desires of the majority of current republicans (christian social conservatism, nationalism) and it has been pretty broadly discredited by the empirical evidence of the 2010's where expansionary monetary policy undeniably produced better outcomes than that ideology predicted and tight fiscal policy produced worse.

i think there is more of a market for a sort of powerful state federalist ideology along the lines of what you mention. i think that would be a fundamentally crippled ideology because you divorce the branches of government charged with producing outcomes (state/local) from the branch of government with the capacity to address national challenges (federal). but i think there might be a market for it.

here is a semi-interesting interview with a conservative envisioning channeling nationalist urges into a healthier conservative party than the xenophobic, closed door ethnonationalism of trump. i don't think it's likely to get much traction either, but it's one vision of how a non-abhorrent republican party might rise from the ashes of trumpism.

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1284184250623733760

sys · « **Reply #59 on:** July 18, 2020, 10:28:00 AM »

i think there is value to the realization that taxes and inflation aren't a zero sum equation. but, yeah, there seems to me to be some non-linearity in the danger of being mistaken in the durability of the deflationary environment.

catastrophe · « **Reply #60 on:** July 19, 2020, 10:37:08 PM »

Quote from: memphis on July 19, 2020, 10:34:30 PM

Is HR1 going to be priority number one if Democrats take the executive and legislative branches?

Yes, in the sense that many viable vaccines will be emerging.

chum1 · « **Reply #61 on:** July 21, 2020, 02:03:43 PM »

I'm about 7/8ths through this. I feel like I know most of the stories already, but some of the details and analysis gave me new perspective on a few things these days. Like, I feel like I can better understand how people like Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, etc. can always go out and play the part of the absurdly unreasonable bad person. It's not that they're simply speaking for their pos constituents. Rather, they view that role as an effective, proven strategy that is now a cherished part of late GOP history. Like they see themselves as modern day Newt Gingriches pushing the unreasonable bad person role further and further, no matter how absurd.

sys · « **Reply #62 on:** July 26, 2020, 01:05:03 PM »

an interesting point. oth, i don't know if this is a problem anywhere besides ny and its largely a solvable problem. but it does highlight a choke point that might exist in some competitive states - and, if so, the party currently in control of election administration might not be incentivized to solve the problem.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1287418619044024327

MakeItRain · « **Reply #63 on:** July 26, 2020, 08:36:17 PM »

There are places where it will be complicated, for sure. For instance, here in Iowa you have to double apply for a mail in ballot. The SoS sends out a request to receive an application for a ballot. That request then goes to the county who sends out the application for the mail in ballot. If you reach those two deadlines then you get the ballot, which of course also has a deadline.

sys · « **Reply #64 on:** August 02, 2020, 10:34:12 AM »

conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.

steve dave · « **Reply #65 on:** August 02, 2020, 10:39:57 AM »

Quote from: sys on August 02, 2020, 10:34:12 AM

conservatism is being discredited by the incompetence of conservatives.

Yes

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sys · « **Reply #66 on:** August 05, 2020, 01:25:11 PM »

couple good articles on polling and 2020 polling challenges.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/here-s-how-nbc-news-working-improve-its-state-polling-n1234716

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/05/key-things-to-know-about-election-polling-in-the-united-states/

sys · « **Reply #67 on:** August 18, 2020, 04:41:07 PM »

people really hate hillary clinton.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1295790954167898112

steve dave · « **Reply #68 on:** August 18, 2020, 04:43:10 PM »

Hate her entire guts

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sys · « **Reply #69 on:** August 18, 2020, 07:32:12 PM »

good skills outta representative lamb here.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1295870479597580289

michigancat · « **Reply #70 on:** August 18, 2020, 07:43:20 PM »

LOL also wow @ having Shakir and Tanden on the same thing. I'll have to read it later

sys · « **Reply #71 on:** August 21, 2020, 06:13:13 PM »

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1296808585989693440

chum1 · « **Reply #72 on:** August 24, 2020, 08:55:22 AM »

Although Republicans aren't always saying the same sorts of things they have over the past 30-40 years, I think there are PLENTY of general similarities between then and now. For example, they're concerned more with what they perceive benefits themselves personally than with anything else. They're very concerned with what they perceive to be people getting more than their fair share or what they're entitled. In one sense or another, they believe that whites are superior to non-whites and that men are superior to women. They're pro rich people. They're reluctant to change (they are the conservative party, after all). And so on.

Quote

With Election Day just a few months away, I was genuinely surprised, in the course of recent conversations with a great many Republicans, at their inability to articulate a purpose, a designation, a raison d'être for their party.

https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1297873116585234435

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #73 on:** September 03, 2020, 08:44:46 AM »

That's worse than a minimum wage increase.

chum1 · « **Reply #74 on:** September 03, 2020, 09:46:58 AM »

Trump campaign's big law and order message is arguably not working. Are they going to stick with it or change things up? What else can they try? What are their options?

I don't think it will be a big message, but I'd guess we'll hear more about Burisma.