Author Topic: political hobbyist thread  (Read 5848 times)

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Online sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #125 on: October 22, 2020, 08:27:12 PM »
I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally.

yep, this is what has happened, at least vis a vis trump.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline memphis

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #126 on: October 27, 2020, 11:01:29 AM »
Same cash infusion on homelessness. The one thing I thought Vox might delve deeper into as it relates to the research :cry:

Quote
“While I have no problem with providing cash to people who need money, the solution to homelessness is housing,” Bloch told me. “Especially in a city like Vancouver where housing supply is low and rents are astronomical, it will be very hard to sustain a homelessness intervention without offering long-term affordable housing. I would not want to see these findings used to take pressure off the critical need to provide both long-term affordable housing and long-term income security.”

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21528569/homeless-poverty-cash-transfer-canada-new-leaf-project

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #128 on: November 01, 2020, 11:30:08 AM »
the shift from 'pub to dem of well educated voters gets more attention, but this is probably more important.


I'd be willing to bet that black and Latino males are trending more conservative as black women and Latinas are trending more liberally. I obviously don't have data that shows this but colloquially it seems black men are becoming more conservative the more the patriarchy has collapsed.
Lending further evidence to the point that women are the smarter members of the species as a whole.

Online sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #129 on: November 01, 2020, 12:30:30 PM »
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Online chum1

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #130 on: November 04, 2020, 11:59:19 AM »
Awful. Another instance of minority rule in our government.


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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #131 on: November 05, 2020, 09:36:55 PM »
biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.

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Online MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #132 on: November 06, 2020, 04:49:01 AM »
biden should have had like entire ads running in florida just talking about how much he admired guaido.


I saw a long form television piece about Venezuelans in Florida and their voting habits, essentially he was in a no win situation there because the support for Guaido in Florida was only about 50/50. I think his bigger issue isn't that people though he was a socialist, that's been hanging around dems down there for a while and Obama and Hillary overcame it, he just didn't show up, he punted Florida.

Also if you haven't seen it yet, watch 537 Votes on HBO, it's a very well made doc, it's more about the history of politics and democrats in south Florida and less about the 2000 recount.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #133 on: November 06, 2020, 03:30:35 PM »
this is a cool map.  the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #134 on: November 06, 2020, 03:47:36 PM »
Very cool
:adios:

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #135 on: November 06, 2020, 05:21:32 PM »
shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.

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Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #136 on: November 06, 2020, 06:18:09 PM »
this is a cool map.  the other three blue splotches on the border are yuma, nogales and douglas, heavily mexican-american.


Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?


Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #137 on: November 06, 2020, 06:20:55 PM »
shor is really going for a 2nd cancellation today.


I was going to say he should run some numbers on the value of keeping his own mouth shut but I bet his first cancellation was fairly lucrative overall. (also is this really cancel worthy?)

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #138 on: November 06, 2020, 06:24:50 PM »
also is this really cancel worthy?

nah, he just got a bunch of people to yell at him.  for this and for criticizing aoc.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #139 on: November 06, 2020, 06:32:05 PM »
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?

i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger.  rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.

my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.
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Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #140 on: November 06, 2020, 06:36:27 PM »
Do you know how AZ Latinos are different culturally from RGV Latinos?

i haven't spent much time in the rgv, but my impressions are that rgv would be longer generations in the us (many since pre-1848), more with a familial origin in ne mexico compared to more diverse regional origin in az, az more urban, probably just slightly younger.  rgv pretty much 100% mexican, az maybe 10% central american or so too.

my guess is that generations in the us and/or ruralness are probably the most important differences.

that makes sense. seems crazy how much they shifted to the right in TX

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #141 on: November 06, 2020, 06:59:19 PM »
oh, one other thing that might be relevant.  rgv is like 90-95% mexican-american.  it's pretty homogeneous.  most az latinos live in phoenix or tucson, where while some may live in highly latino neighborhoods, the cities themselves are multicultural.
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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #142 on: November 06, 2020, 07:04:20 PM »
hopefully dems can hold this.  2022 may be tough in nevada, though.

we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #143 on: November 06, 2020, 10:06:12 PM »
florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.

the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.
@bentren

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #144 on: November 07, 2020, 01:21:21 AM »
guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking).

i was being flippant, but not quite a joke.  like, there's almost no cost to telling some group of immigrants that you liked whatever team they were on in their former country and it's meaningful to them.  cuban-americans, seemingly, mostly just want to hear that castro sucked ass, and no one else in america gives a crap, so go ahead and say that.

mir indicated that guaido isn't viewed that favorably by venezuelan-americans, so maybe that's not the right message.  but whatever it is - maduro sucks or maduro's great or chavez was great but maduro mumped it up or chavez, maduro and guaido are all crap, just say that, because it's very meaningful to this small group of electorally important people and no one else cares.
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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #145 on: November 07, 2020, 09:36:16 AM »
florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.

the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #146 on: November 07, 2020, 01:28:11 PM »
still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #147 on: November 07, 2020, 03:44:14 PM »
when all the votes are in the magnitude of the electoral college bias is going to be safely larger than the magnitude of the error in thenational polling average.

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #148 on: November 07, 2020, 03:54:07 PM »


still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.


How is that defined, only 227 EC votes were from states with more than a 4-5% margin for Biden?

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #149 on: November 07, 2020, 03:56:54 PM »
difference btwn the national popular vote margin and the margin in the tipping point state.
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