political hobbyist thread

[sys]

guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking).

i was being flippant, but not quite a joke.  like, there's almost no cost to telling some group of immigrants that you liked whatever team they were on in their former country and it's meaningful to them.  cuban-americans, seemingly, mostly just want to hear that castro sucked ass, and no one else in america gives a crap, so go ahead and say that.

mir indicated that guaido isn't viewed that favorably by venezuelan-americans, so maybe that's not the right message.  but whatever it is - maduro sucks or maduro's great or chavez was great but maduro mumped it up or chavez, maduro and guaido are all crap, just say that, because it's very meaningful to this small group of electorally important people and no one else cares.

[MakeItRain]

florida latinos are a pretty distinct group from the rest of the mainly mexican latino population throughout the rest of the country. I don't think catering to the florida weirdos is worth it at this point, just offer them material benefits and let the chips fall.

the southwest and midwest are worth way more, and just objectively guaido is a joke so it doesn't even make any sense (I think you were joking). But in general I don't think trying to appeal to the south american contras and capitalist carribbean types instead of the much larger population of working and middle class mexicans is worth it anyway.

I love you

[sys]

still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1325150805385601028

[sys]

when all the votes are in the magnitude of the electoral college bias is going to be safely larger than the magnitude of the error in thenational polling average.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1325146467938361345

[michigancat]

still a lot of votes to be counted, so the exact margin isn't written in stone, but the electoral college disadvantage for dems increased again this year.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1325150805385601028

How is that defined, only 227 EC votes were from states with more than a 4-5% margin for Biden?

[sys]

difference btwn the national popular vote margin and the margin in the tipping point state.

[MakeItRain]

Would it cost less to relocate millions of progressives moderates than spend money on campaigns? 

[sys]

for memphis (on 2020 poling bias):

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1325471130560368641

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1325477322078752770

[chum1]

When Trump was first elected and people talked about lasting consequences, I wasn't exactly sure what those consequences might be. I share the concerns highlighted in this link. I worry that a rapidly increasing number of Republican leaders are more intersted in being in power than with having democratic elections.

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1325944218120908801

[sys]

cohn with sorta the reverse of shor's non-response bias.

We know that politically engaged voters are more likely to respond to surveys. And so it may be that as the Trump Presidency has totally energized the Democratic base, it has also led those same kinds of voters to increase their propensity to respond to political surveys.

https://twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/1325991287439417344

[Justwin]

https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/

As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

...

According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’

The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.

[treysolid]

https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/

As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

The most telling thing isn't the discrepancy in the %'s, it's the fact that they are above 2-5% at all.

[sys]

David Shor - I mean, I’m not a robot. 

Lol

Vox.com: Election results: Why the polls got it wrong.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor

 

also, great article.

[michigancat]

that's exactly what a robot who wants you to think they are not a robot would say

[michigancat]

Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?

Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334

Maybe there's two David Shors? The one I knew of was cancelled

[sys]

david shor?  yeah, i like his early stuff.

[michigancat]

Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?

Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334

but yeah interesting article though.  I got to this and was like "WHAT?!?"

The average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.

something about that seems off

other thoughts

-crazy he can point to ONE MISTAKE costing the 2016 election
-The white college educated shift to dems is an interesting one, especially the idea that they're sort of shoving out minorities
-he's got a huge boner for non-college whites. I don't know how his numbers work out but should Dems maybe focus on minorities that are shifting away before being racist-friendly? dunno
-he was less like a robot but still kinda roboty

[sys]

that is actually a fantastic interview, though.  the best i've seen.  a person could read that and nothing else and understand 2020 american politics.

[MakeItRain]

kook

[sys]

a less data-driven perspective.

https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1326979780978208768

[chum1]

It sounds like Shor is saying that dems need to do better with choosing policies to attract higher info voters and better propaganda to attract lower info voters, which rings true to me as an opportunity for improvement.

I'm not sure to what extent we should heed recent trends given the uniqueness of Trump. No one else has anything like his appeal.

[sys]

not sure how i feel about yglesias leaving vox, but this is a good blog post and worth reading.  skipping over his reiteration of shor's concerns and moving right to the end - i think this really gets to a lot of the disconnect between what progressives think people should support, what polls show they support if the poll question is carefully worded and what people actually vote for.

yes, in theory, the american people probably would prefer some sort of state-mediated universal health care.  they vote against efforts to install one because they are deeply doubtful of any level of american government's ability to produce an acceptable version.  until governments can produce a track record of competence, this going to be a stumbling block for any ambitious policy.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1327279951607947267

[sys]

some of these voters are not going to be going back to dems post-trump.  but also, these are small towns, small counties, small numbers of votes.  i want to read the article talking to harris county mexican-americans that switched d to r in 2020, not these guys.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/south-texas-voters-donald-trump/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_content=1605275725&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[sys]

david shor is everywhere (and still worth reading).

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1327264521245888512

[michigancat]

After reading a few of those Shor interviews there's a few things that would be interesting for him to address:

He keeps saying Dems need to go after non-college whites, but they choose the candidate who should have been the absolute best possible candidate with non-college whites (sys pointed this out with the Corvette video), and didn't make much ground.

He blames the Hillary loss on her immigration focus during the campaign, yet doesn't seem to mention that as a possible reason that Latinos swung right this year.

I also don't like his he uses absolutes, as if ONE SINGLE THING is the difference between winning and losing in this state or that one.