You can't just add vaccinations to the total of estimated infected. There will end up being a lot of overlap between the people who were infected but never tested and those who get the vaccine.
If it’s an overlap of 50% that’s still 50MM people and speeds up the date of hers immunity a full month
If 85% need vaccinated for herd immunity, I would expect the overlap to be about 85%.
The overlap in terms of the number of vaccinated that have had COVID would be the percentage of the population that has had COVID. So right now the overlap would be something like 25-35%. I also think that the likelihood of getting a vaccine and having had COVID are negatively correlated, so the overlap percentage would be lower than the percentage of the population that has been infected.
I was referring to the percentage of people who have had COVID and will also get the vaccine. I expect it to be about the same percentage as the total population that gets the vaccine. So if 100 million people have already had the virus and 85% of the total population gets the vaccine, I would expect about 85 million people to get vaccinated that have already had the virus. I have seen nothing telling people who have already had the virus to not get the vaccine, only to wait a few months before getting it. Also, if 100 million people have already had the virus, then about 75 million of them are unaware of that fact, so it would be completely irrelevant to whether or not they get vaccinated.
