CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[Phil Titola]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-11/herd-immunity-from-covid-19-won-t-fully-protect-us?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_content=view&utm_medium=social

This article addresses both the idea of a partial herd immunity resulting in lower deaths for now and how super spreaders can change over time leading to deaths rising in the same cities.

Good points

[catastrophe]

speaking of, all this worry about the flu and a second wave coming this winter, shouldn't the precautions that seem we'll have in place the rest of 2020 take the knees out of the flu?

I would expect less kids in school will make a big difference, but also it’s tough to analogize. Like wasn’t there a graphic a while back of lockdown seemingly not having an impact on a bunch of other viruses?

[michigancat]

speaking of, all this worry about the flu and a second wave coming this winter, shouldn't the precautions that seem we'll have in place the rest of 2020 take the knees out of the flu?

I would expect less kids in school will make a big difference, but also it’s tough to analogize. Like wasn’t there a graphic a while back of lockdown seemingly not having an impact on a bunch of other viruses?

Australia knocked out the flu big time in their winter

[sys]

This guy may be a twitter doc quack but with the recent news of possible t-cell cross immune reaction, it gives support to the 20% herd immunity figure.

https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1292873236716433416

i thought we'd been over this, phil.

I'm not sure since the tcell thing is pretty recent development. I'm open to hearing other points of view on this thing.

it's not that recent, but that aside, we've had multiple discussions in the last few weeks on why detectable herd immunity effects at relatively low levels of infections are expected when interventions are reducing the rate of transmission.

[michigancat]

Also that todaro guy was in the demon sperm doctor video

[Phil Titola]

Also that todaro guy was in the demon sperm doctor video

Eff me! This is what I get going down rabbit holes

[bucket]

Also that todaro guy was in the demon sperm doctor video

 

[sys]

i'm a couple days late on this.  but, brazil, welcome to the six-figgas club.

[sonofdaxjones]

Congrats again to Sweden.  Minimal intervention (almost none really) and they’ve broken through to the other side, at least for now.

[Phil Titola]

This guy may be a twitter doc quack but with the recent news of possible t-cell cross immune reaction, it gives support to the 20% herd immunity figure.

https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1292873236716433416

i thought we'd been over this, phil.

I'm not sure since the tcell thing is pretty recent development. I'm open to hearing other points of view on this thing.

it's not that recent, but that aside, we've had multiple discussions in the last few weeks on why detectable herd immunity effects at relatively low levels of infections are expected when interventions are reducing the rate of transmission.

Well this story was 4 days ago along with the latest research paper released on the 4th but if you are talking about Gates and I being on this for awhile, yeah I guess so.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

I agree with your points though, the mitigations we've put in place are obviously producing results and are well worth it until we can get down to a level the EU is at and actually attempt to contain this thing within the population.

If this proves to be backed by data,, it would make additional strict lockdowns seem unnecessary.

[Dugout DickStone]

So aerosols, thought the below snippet was interesting, but could have been few enough that it wasn't an infectious dose.

The room had six air changes per hour and was fitted with efficient filters, ultraviolet irradiation and other safety measures to inactivate the virus before the air was reintroduced into the room.

The New York Times: ‘A Smoking Gun’: Infectious Coronavirus Retrieved From Hospital Air.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/coronavirus-aerosols-indoors.html

Important read for people who think keeping kids six feet apart indoors at schools will prevent the spread

Still an important final question.


“I’m just not sure that these numbers are high enough to cause an infection in somebody,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York.


Being able to harvest it out of the air does seem big but is it enough to make anybody sick?

Yeah it seems similar to how everyone was wiping down Amazon boxes with bleach at the beginning cause they determined it could survive like 3 days on cardboard. Finding a live virus is not the same thing as identifying an actual infection risk.

Based on stories of superspreading events it seems reasonable one of those superspreder people could be spreading it beyond the 6 feet, I just am not sure it's very common or we'd see a higher reproductive value and/or more people would be sick.  Maybe this is the cause of more asymptomic/mildly symptomatic people?  Like masks that they are thinking causes the wearer to suck less of this down their lungs and get less sick?

JB Handley says it's over in a couple weeks anyways, play ball!

Handley has been proven to be a complete huckster and went back to anti-polio vax crap where he belongs.

[sonofdaxjones]

Multiple countries engaging Russia on the vaccine, and more information emerging as to how and why the Gamalya Center had such a head start over everybody else.

I just keep thinking about that stuff frozen away in Houston that they couldn't get any funding for in 2016.   SMDH

[Phil Titola]

I just keep thinking about that stuff frozen away in Houston that they couldn't get any funding for in 2016.   SMDH

Just barely found a way to tangently blame Obama, nice work.  If it's frozen why didn't we start on it in 2017?  Cutting public health funding really helped us.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2

[Dugout DickStone]

Good lord if the Trump re-election play book is to blame obama for anything covid related I'm going to LMFAO

[steve dave]

From recent data points it would appear the play may be to continue sucking Russia off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sonofdaxjones]

Good lord if the Trump re-election play book is to blame obama for anything covid related I'm going to LMFAO

The complete dumbass assumptions you and your ilk make are just 

[sonofdaxjones]

I just keep thinking about that stuff frozen away in Houston that they couldn't get any funding for in 2016.   SMDH

Just barely found a way to tangently blame Obama, nice work.  If it's frozen why didn't we start on it in 2017?  Cutting public health funding really helped us.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2

People like Fauci control this kind of funding, Phil.

You guys love Fauci, remember?

The NSC accusation alone is just  because the entirety of the NSC stuff was so full of bloat that even Obama administration officials admitted that.   One of the guys who ran the pandemic office even said they were folded into another group.   I suppose if you're bombing the beejeezus out of brown people around the globe you need a large NSC staff.

[michigancat]

This guy may be a twitter doc quack but with the recent news of possible t-cell cross immune reaction, it gives support to the 20% herd immunity figure.

https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1292873236716433416

i thought we'd been over this, phil.

I'm not sure since the tcell thing is pretty recent development. I'm open to hearing other points of view on this thing.

it's not that recent, but that aside, we've had multiple discussions in the last few weeks on why detectable herd immunity effects at relatively low levels of infections are expected when interventions are reducing the rate of transmission.

Well this story was 4 days ago along with the latest research paper released on the 4th but if you are talking about Gates and I being on this for awhile, yeah I guess so.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

I agree with your points though, the mitigations we've put in place are obviously producing results and are well worth it until we can get down to a level the EU is at and actually attempt to contain this thing within the population.

If this proves to be backed by data,, it would make additional strict lockdowns seem unnecessary.

this is kind of a crazy chart

[sonofdaxjones]

Why is that the least bit surprising cRusty?

[Phil Titola]

It seemed surprising to me the homeless and prisons were so high.  You associate those populations with generally poorer health and hence you'd think a CV infection would present more.  The other side of the argument is they are exposed to more CVs and hence have built up more tcell immune reactions.

[kim carnes]

It seemed surprising to me the homeless and prisons were so high.  You associate those populations with generally poorer health and hence you'd think a CV infection would present more.  The other side of the argument is they are exposed to more CVs and hence have built up more tcell immune reactions.

Well, for one, they aren’t obese like most Americans.

[michigancat]

It seemed surprising to me the homeless and prisons were so high.  You associate those populations with generally poorer health and hence you'd think a CV infection would present more.  The other side of the argument is they are exposed to more CVs and hence have built up more tcell immune reactions.

also that the asymptomatic at the prison and packing plant were so high and the old folks home was so low. Really the numbers are just all over the place and it kinda makes me question everything.

[Phil Titola]

It seemed surprising to me the homeless and prisons were so high.  You associate those populations with generally poorer health and hence you'd think a CV infection would present more.  The other side of the argument is they are exposed to more CVs and hence have built up more tcell immune reactions.

Well, for one, they aren’t obese like most Americans.

Need asymptomatic v. BMI data!

[sys]

Really the numbers are just all over the place and it kinda makes me question everything.

different methods, different reporting standards.  compilations of low quality data like that are pretty useless.

[sonofdaxjones]

It seemed surprising to me the homeless and prisons were so high.  You associate those populations with generally poorer health and hence you'd think a CV infection would present more.  The other side of the argument is they are exposed to more CVs and hence have built up more tcell immune reactions.

Well, for one, they aren’t obese like most Americans.

25% to 27% of Germans are obese and 61% of Germans are considered to be overweight.   

A real study:  Heterogeneity v BMI v Virus variation v etc. etc. etc.