CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[steve dave]

Positive rates leveling off in AZ and FL.

[bucket]

It was mostly about reopening schools. It was that schools must fully open 5-days a week. I can't touch on the finer details and few were provided. It sounded insane. Then again, efforts to reopen have backfired in every instance so this isn't a surprise. Throw in the fact that this is coming from Trump and DeVos.

[Dugout DickStone]

I don't think efforts to reopen have backfired.  I am going to be a clay travis on this but the deaths are coming down.  I honestly think things will look quite different in a month (for the better)

[Phil Titola]

I don't think efforts to reopen have backfired.  I am going to be a clay travis on this but the deaths are coming down.  I honestly think things will look quite different in a month (for the better)

The 7 day average is now flat :(

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_web-gfx-death-tracker%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

[Dugout DickStone]

I am assuming there is a reason that the 6th and 7th of july are 700 deaths apart (which swung the curve up enough to flatten it).  Each weekly peak - looks like on wednesday/thursday of each week - is lower.    Each weekly low, is lower. 

Again, this thing is bad, evil, awful.  Wear masks, sanitize, stay home if you can, stay away from other people and use every precaution you can.

But, at what point is a a weekly high of 600 a reason to shut it down?  All of those 600 had families, will be missed and I would probably have a different opinion if I knew and loved them but...

I am just saying while the cases are going up, the deaths are going down and the numbers seem pretty clear on that.  And I know the shutdown is partly (or even mostly) credited with that but we are at a level now where it is time to go. 

RIP my mentions

[420seriouscat69]

 

[DQ12]

I am assuming there is a reason that the 6th and 7th of july are 700 deaths apart (which swung the curve up enough to flatten it).  Each weekly peak - looks like on wednesday/thursday of each week - is lower.    Each weekly low, is lower. 

Again, this thing is bad, evil, awful.  Wear masks, sanitize, stay home if you can, stay away from other people and use every precaution you can.

But, at what point is a a weekly high of 600 a reason to shut it down?  All of those 600 had families, will be missed and I would probably have a different opinion if I knew and loved them but...

I am just saying while the cases are going up, the deaths are going down and the numbers seem pretty clear on that.  And I know the shutdown is partly (or even mostly) credited with that but we are at a level now where it is time to go. 

RIP my mentions

I've been on this train for a while but the train might be slowing down.  I think deaths may start to increase this week.  Come saturday we can compare the 7 day average to last week.

[nicname]

Over/under on 200k US deaths by 2021? I have a standing bet on this with a non gE bud. Sadly, I took the over. Rooting for myself to lose.

[sonofdaxjones]

Over/under on 200k US deaths by 2021? I have a standing bet on this with a non gE bud. Sadly, I took the over. Rooting for myself to lose.

If Trump's poll numbers improve, enjoy your money, nic.

[sys]

I've been on this train for a while but the train might be slowing down.  I think deaths may start to increase this week.

i'd bet on it if there was somewhere to bet on covid mortality trends.

[Dugout DickStone]

I am assuming there is a reason that the 6th and 7th of july are 700 deaths apart (which swung the curve up enough to flatten it).  Each weekly peak - looks like on wednesday/thursday of each week - is lower.    Each weekly low, is lower. 

Again, this thing is bad, evil, awful.  Wear masks, sanitize, stay home if you can, stay away from other people and use every precaution you can.

But, at what point is a a weekly high of 600 a reason to shut it down?  All of those 600 had families, will be missed and I would probably have a different opinion if I knew and loved them but...

I am just saying while the cases are going up, the deaths are going down and the numbers seem pretty clear on that.  And I know the shutdown is partly (or even mostly) credited with that but we are at a level now where it is time to go. 

RIP my mentions

I've been on this train for a while but the train might be slowing down.  I think deaths may start to increase this week.  Come saturday we can compare the 7 day average to last week.

I think there will be an uptick. 

It won't be dramatic and the highs of mid april will never occur in the country again.  We reopened, we knew we'd take our lumps and they are tragic.  If we could get the dip eff president to tell his even dipfuckier followers to mask up we'd make this thing our bitch much sooner.

But trump is as stupid as a flat tire and your average maga isn't even that smart

[Phil Titola]

This also reminds me last week of the discussion of reported cases vs. probable actual cases using the % positive test rate as a variable.  While cases look higher now than April and hence you'd think deaths are coming along soon as a lagging indicator, our true case count probably isn't higher (even though it's trending up) and would support some uptick in deaths (but not to our April levels)

It's in this thread

good thread illustrating why comparing new cases numbers to new cases a week or two ago is useful but comparing them to cases a month or two ago isn't.

https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1278868210385915904

[michigancat]

we definitely haven't fully reopened by any definition

[DQ12]

I am assuming there is a reason that the 6th and 7th of july are 700 deaths apart (which swung the curve up enough to flatten it).  Each weekly peak - looks like on wednesday/thursday of each week - is lower.    Each weekly low, is lower. 

Again, this thing is bad, evil, awful.  Wear masks, sanitize, stay home if you can, stay away from other people and use every precaution you can.

But, at what point is a a weekly high of 600 a reason to shut it down?  All of those 600 had families, will be missed and I would probably have a different opinion if I knew and loved them but...

I am just saying while the cases are going up, the deaths are going down and the numbers seem pretty clear on that.  And I know the shutdown is partly (or even mostly) credited with that but we are at a level now where it is time to go. 

RIP my mentions

I've been on this train for a while but the train might be slowing down.  I think deaths may start to increase this week.  Come saturday we can compare the 7 day average to last week.

I think there will be an uptick. 

It won't be dramatic and the highs of mid april will never occur in the country again.  We reopened, we knew we'd take our lumps and they are tragic.  If we could get the dip eff president to tell his even dipfuckier followers to mask up we'd make this thing our bitch much sooner.

But trump is as stupid as a flat tire and your average maga isn't even that smart

I agree with all of this.  For context, daily deaths would need to almost quadruple to get back to April levels. 

It seems masking is more or less ubiquitous now -- at least around KC.  I assume for most of the country as well, especially in hotpot places.  I wonder when the data/positive% data will start reflecting that.  Arizona's positive % is starting to get out of control.  Florida's may be leveling out.

[Phil Titola]

I am assuming there is a reason that the 6th and 7th of july are 700 deaths apart (which swung the curve up enough to flatten it).  Each weekly peak - looks like on wednesday/thursday of each week - is lower.    Each weekly low, is lower. 

Again, this thing is bad, evil, awful.  Wear masks, sanitize, stay home if you can, stay away from other people and use every precaution you can.

But, at what point is a a weekly high of 600 a reason to shut it down?  All of those 600 had families, will be missed and I would probably have a different opinion if I knew and loved them but...

I am just saying while the cases are going up, the deaths are going down and the numbers seem pretty clear on that.  And I know the shutdown is partly (or even mostly) credited with that but we are at a level now where it is time to go. 

RIP my mentions

I've been on this train for a while but the train might be slowing down.  I think deaths may start to increase this week.  Come saturday we can compare the 7 day average to last week.

I think there will be an uptick. 

It won't be dramatic and the highs of mid april will never occur in the country again.  We reopened, we knew we'd take our lumps and they are tragic.  If we could get the dip eff president to tell his even dipfuckier followers to mask up we'd make this thing our bitch much sooner.

But trump is as stupid as a flat tire and your average maga isn't even that smart

I agree with all of this.  For context, daily deaths would need to almost quadruple to get back to April levels. 

It seems masking is more or less ubiquitous now -- at least around KC.  I assume for most of the country as well, especially in hotpot places.  I wonder when the data/positive% data will start reflecting that.  Arizona's positive % is starting to get out of control.  Florida's may be leveling out.

Isn't every answer 2 weeks on any COVID19 timeframe?

I wonder too.  I'd think it should be quick given the claims that masking has reduced spread 40% other places. 

[Phil Titola]

Found this to be a good weekly data source for KC area (MO side only)

https://www.mhanet.com/mhaimages/COVID-19/dash/KC_COVID19_RegionalDashboard.pdf

Postive Test % - 4.7% 

[420seriouscat69]

Do you guys remember going to movies? Man, those were the days!

[DQ12]

Found this to be a good weekly data source for KC area (MO side only)

https://www.mhanet.com/mhaimages/COVID-19/dash/KC_COVID19_RegionalDashboard.pdf

Postive Test % - 4.7% 

That's a pretty nice tool.

[star seed 7]

I'm totally over movie theaters, I hope home release still continues.

[catastrophe]

Hospitalizations are starting to level in hotspot DFW. Still high, but seems like a precursor that any rise in deaths won’t go much longer than a couple weeks.

Masks definitely help, but my guess is the most damage has been done by opening bars and gyms + COVID temporarily just falling out of the news cycle.

[bucket]

I don't think efforts to reopen have backfired.  I am going to be a clay travis on this but the deaths are coming down.  I honestly think things will look quite different in a month (for the better)

You think the resurgence of cases was unavoidable? Like, it would have happened this dramatically even if states followed the guidelines laid out by the CDC? I'm not against reopening. I'm just saying it was rushed. That's why we're seeing hot spots and why we won't have sports this year.

[Phil Titola]

I don't think efforts to reopen have backfired.  I am going to be a clay travis on this but the deaths are coming down.  I honestly think things will look quite different in a month (for the better)

You think the resurgence of cases was unavoidable? Like, it would have happened this dramatically even if states followed the guidelines laid out by the CDC? I'm not against reopening. I'm just saying it was rushed. That's why we're seeing hot spots and why we won't have sports this year.

I agree they were unaviodable.  Move phased reopening to September and you would have seen the same things playing out (assuming we didn't get smarter and say wear masks sooner into reopening) as you would still have enough virus out there to fire back up when people got together.  Thinking longer term, having a resurgance now may save us more come fall/winter flu time.

[Phil Titola]

Hospitalizations are starting to level in hotspot DFW. Still high, but seems like a precursor that any rise in deaths won’t go much longer than a couple weeks.

Masks definitely help, but my guess is the most damage has been done by opening bars and gyms + COVID temporarily just falling out of the news cycle.

Man it would be nice to have some more insight into where contract tracers are figuring out where people got it. 

[bucket]

I don't think efforts to reopen have backfired.  I am going to be a clay travis on this but the deaths are coming down.  I honestly think things will look quite different in a month (for the better)

You think the resurgence of cases was unavoidable? Like, it would have happened this dramatically even if states followed the guidelines laid out by the CDC? I'm not against reopening. I'm just saying it was rushed. That's why we're seeing hot spots and why we won't have sports this year.

I agree they were unaviodable.  Move phased reopening to September and you would have seen the same things playing out (assuming we didn't get smarter and say wear masks sooner into reopening) as you would still have enough virus out there to fire back up when people got together.  Thinking longer term, having a resurgance now may save us more come fall/winter flu time.

It blows my mind that we squandered the time spent in lock down.

[Phil Titola]

I don't think efforts to reopen have backfired.  I am going to be a clay travis on this but the deaths are coming down.  I honestly think things will look quite different in a month (for the better)

You think the resurgence of cases was unavoidable? Like, it would have happened this dramatically even if states followed the guidelines laid out by the CDC? I'm not against reopening. I'm just saying it was rushed. That's why we're seeing hot spots and why we won't have sports this year.

I agree they were unaviodable.  Move phased reopening to September and you would have seen the same things playing out (assuming we didn't get smarter and say wear masks sooner into reopening) as you would still have enough virus out there to fire back up when people got together.  Thinking longer term, having a resurgance now may save us more come fall/winter flu time.

It blows my mind that we squandered the time spent in lock down.

We did get a better testing infrastructure in place, hospitals ready, PPE more ready, etc.  Not sure could expect much more could we?  It's not like we were going to burn it out to zero although that was my initial hope during lockdown.