Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1050632 times)

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Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8225 on: July 07, 2020, 12:10:18 PM »
People from my social bubble of two other families we bbq'd with (outside) on the 4th of July have fevers. :ohno:

it's kind of interesting but shows how the testing infrastructure isn't great. Everyone's scrambling to figure out how to get tested. No one knows if you need an appointment or how long it takes to get results. One family has a symptomatic kid going to one location and the asymptomatic folks are going to another. One family got an afternoon appointment for 4pm and was told results are 1-2 days. Meanwhile we're all feeling fine and going about our day (I'm WFH, wife at hospital, daughter has an open water swim practice). But being in this situation you can see what a challenge this all is beyond graphs and test positivity rates.

Me . . . drive down the street, pull up, get tested.

Sounds like Gav better quit worrying about his vineyards and get to work on that testing.


Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8226 on: July 07, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »
I don't much of anything of the Swedish economy except the red fish production.

Unfortunately for Sweden Volvo and IKEA are dependent on the global economy.



https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1280549385068113921

Quote
The coronavirus does not stop at national borders. Despite the government’s decision to allow the domestic economy to roll on, Swedish businesses are stuck with the same conditions that produced recession everywhere else. And Swedish people responded to the fear of the virus by limiting their shopping — not enough to prevent elevated deaths, but enough to produce a decline in business activity.

Here is one takeaway with potentially universal import: It is simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself. From Asia to Europe to the Americas, the risks of the pandemic have disrupted businesses while prompting people to avoid shopping malls and restaurants, regardless of official policy.

Sweden is exposed to the vagaries of global trade. Once the pandemic was unleashed, it was certain to suffer the economic consequences, said Mr. Kirkegaard, the economist.

“The Swedish manufacturing sector shut down when everyone else shut down because of the supply chain situation,” he said. “This was entirely predictable.”

Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8227 on: July 07, 2020, 12:42:16 PM »
Lot of slugging out to do if only 5% of people have got it and doesn't back up the CDC claim of at least 10x more people having it than the numbers say.

10x or more was probably accurate in the spring.  models suggest it's probably more like 4x currently.


dunno what the average would work out to, but most competent estimates i've seen put the sum at 5-10 of the us population as infected or previously infected.%
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8228 on: July 07, 2020, 12:48:27 PM »
shows how the testing infrastructure isn't great.

yeah, my coworker from last week with the sick child isn't scheduled to get tested until the 14th (over a week after her request).  i have a call in to my medical network, but haven't heard yet if i can get a test and when - i'm already one week out from possible exposure.

so, in both of our cases, testing will be almost completely useless due to delays (if we can both even get tested).


another coworker went to an urgent care facility and i believe was tested on the same day he went in, so i guess that's a better option for people willing to go that route.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8230 on: July 07, 2020, 01:35:07 PM »
Friend of stone just drove up and got tested at CVS.  looking at 4-5 days for results.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8231 on: July 07, 2020, 01:44:27 PM »
I don't think CVS testing is covered by my insurance. Urgent care or some hospitals seem to be options but both say to call.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8232 on: July 07, 2020, 01:46:22 PM »
People from my social bubble of two other families we bbq'd with (outside) on the 4th of July have fevers. :ohno:

it's kind of interesting but shows how the testing infrastructure isn't great. Everyone's scrambling to figure out how to get tested. No one knows if you need an appointment or how long it takes to get results. One family has a symptomatic kid going to one location and the asymptomatic folks are going to another. One family got an afternoon appointment for 4pm and was told results are 1-2 days. Meanwhile we're all feeling fine and going about our day (I'm WFH, wife at hospital, daughter has an open water swim practice). But being in this situation you can see what a challenge this all is beyond graphs and test positivity rates.

Me . . . drive down the street, pull up, get tested.

Sounds like Gav better quit worrying about his vineyards and get to work on that testing.

It's a national mess despite how easy you think it is in Alabama. It's impacting our ability to get over this thing and oh well dax says bama testing is okay.

Offline Trim

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8233 on: July 07, 2020, 01:46:46 PM »
The only thing easier than scheduling and getting tests with next-day results was insurance promptly covering it all without my involvement.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8234 on: July 07, 2020, 01:48:36 PM »
There isn't a rule that says 100% of the population needs to get this thing before we are out of the woods right? 

impossible to know for sure but I've seen estimates of 70-80%...Mayo Clinic estimates 70%:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Didn't someone say like 15% but I think she was a quack.

It's interesting how segmented this seems to be affecting our communities unequally, which could lead to a lesser % needed?

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8235 on: July 07, 2020, 02:00:04 PM »
There isn't a rule that says 100% of the population needs to get this thing before we are out of the woods right? 

impossible to know for sure but I've seen estimates of 70-80%...Mayo Clinic estimates 70%:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Didn't someone say like 15% but I think she was a quack.

It's interesting how segmented this seems to be affecting our communities unequally, which could lead to a lesser % needed?

I may be mixing up stories, but that may be tied to the idea that if you infected the RIGHT 15% you could have herd immunity because some people might be superspreaders while others infect relatively few. Not sure if that's what you were thinking.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8236 on: July 07, 2020, 02:18:26 PM »
There isn't a rule that says 100% of the population needs to get this thing before we are out of the woods right? 

impossible to know for sure but I've seen estimates of 70-80%...Mayo Clinic estimates 70%:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Didn't someone say like 15% but I think she was a quack.

It's interesting how segmented this seems to be affecting our communities unequally, which could lead to a lesser % needed?

I may be mixing up stories, but that may be tied to the idea that if you infected the RIGHT 15% you could have herd immunity because some people might be superspreaders while others infect relatively few. Not sure if that's what you were thinking.
Too lazy to look but I think Dr Kasten had something along these lines 6 - 8 weeks ago - basically that we could get a level of immunity that would protect the most vulnerable with about 20% of the population being infected. Seems pretty optimistic but would be awesome if true.

Offline sys

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"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8238 on: July 07, 2020, 02:45:50 PM »
there's been a lot of speculation and modelling around demographic heterogenity in populations reducing the % needed for herd immunity.  basically the idea is that some people are nodes with lots of contact with lots of people and other people are dead ends with little contact with few people and that the virus will naturally tend to infect the former first (because they have contact with lots of people) and then once those node people are immune it cuts off infection chains at shorter lengths so herd immunity is achieved at lower %s than the null model would predict.

i posted some stuff about it a month or two back.  it's pretty interesting.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline DQ12

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8239 on: July 07, 2020, 02:52:12 PM »
that is interesting.  TY, sys.


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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8240 on: July 07, 2020, 02:54:31 PM »
there's been a lot of speculation and modelling around demographic heterogenity in populations reducing the % needed for herd immunity.  basically the idea is that some people are nodes with lots of contact with lots of people and other people are dead ends with little contact with few people and that the virus will naturally tend to infect the former first (because they have contact with lots of people) and then once those node people are immune it cuts off infection chains at shorter lengths so herd immunity is achieved at lower %s than the null model would predict.

i posted some stuff about it a month or two back.  it's pretty interesting.

Where my dead ends at? Represent.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8241 on: July 07, 2020, 03:05:27 PM »
there's been a lot of speculation and modelling around demographic heterogenity in populations reducing the % needed for herd immunity.  basically the idea is that some people are nodes with lots of contact with lots of people and other people are dead ends with little contact with few people and that the virus will naturally tend to infect the former first (because they have contact with lots of people) and then once those node people are immune it cuts off infection chains at shorter lengths so herd immunity is achieved at lower %s than the null model would predict.

i posted some stuff about it a month or two back.  it's pretty interesting.

Thanks Luke

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8242 on: July 07, 2020, 03:07:15 PM »
I know the little live action graphic is a good representation of this but it makes pretty good sense.  If a contagious but asymptomatic individual only goes out with a mask on and otherwise works from home with 2 people who had the antibodies, the virus will run its course and he is a dead end.

Some ho who is asyptomatic and goes to Aura with no mask and sings slong all night just shed that crap all over.

Still a good illustration of how a dead end with a mask is really a hero.

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8243 on: July 07, 2020, 03:19:45 PM »
there's been a lot of speculation and modelling around demographic heterogenity in populations reducing the % needed for herd immunity.  basically the idea is that some people are nodes with lots of contact with lots of people and other people are dead ends with little contact with few people and that the virus will naturally tend to infect the former first (because they have contact with lots of people) and then once those node people are immune it cuts off infection chains at shorter lengths so herd immunity is achieved at lower %s than the null model would predict.

i posted some stuff about it a month or two back.  it's pretty interesting.

Where my dead ends at? Represent.

Dead end checking in
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8244 on: July 07, 2020, 03:30:14 PM »
NVAX . . . up  31% today.

Tony just gave them $1.6B.   

Somebody check a few selected stock portfolios.


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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8245 on: July 07, 2020, 06:06:40 PM »
there's been a lot of speculation and modelling around demographic heterogenity in populations reducing the % needed for herd immunity.  basically the idea is that some people are nodes with lots of contact with lots of people and other people are dead ends with little contact with few people and that the virus will naturally tend to infect the former first (because they have contact with lots of people) and then once those node people are immune it cuts off infection chains at shorter lengths so herd immunity is achieved at lower %s than the null model would predict.

i posted some stuff about it a month or two back.  it's pretty interesting.

I feel like I came up with that line of thinking on my own but probably just read it somewhere.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8246 on: July 07, 2020, 06:47:23 PM »
Friend has been waiting in line for testing and results all day

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8247 on: July 07, 2020, 07:27:46 PM »
SMDH.   Silicon Valley Area:  3rd World

Who knew

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8248 on: July 07, 2020, 07:44:13 PM »
Friend has been waiting in line for testing and results all day

Plenty of tests. Trump in March.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8249 on: July 07, 2020, 08:47:00 PM »
Friend has been waiting in line for testing and results all day

Plenty of tests. Trump in March.

Billions to states for tests, public health administrators drawing hundreds of thousands in salaries . . . blame Trump.

You never want to talk about that, Phil.   It's been one clueless local and state public health official after another, because all most of them are good at is shoving paper around on their desk and going to conferences and symposiums. 

Figure out a way to survive for 30 years for that gub retirement, or get appointed by the gub, meeting/conference/delegate, their way around for a few years, then get hired into a cushy private sector consulting job.   

Remember the ventilator meltdown?  Then we discover that guys like Cuomo didn't wanna buy any of those boring ventilators for less than 1% of the state budget.   Then a few years later, he's screaming for the Federal gov't to come save the day.