CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[chum1]

Sweden has been distancing. It's just not mandatory. Like some US states.

Pretty lax distancing.  Seems more "do your best"

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars.

And they are getting high participation rates. Again, like US states with fewer restrictions.

[Phil Titola]

Sweden has been distancing. It's just not mandatory. Like some US states.

Pretty lax distancing.  Seems more "do your best"

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars.

And they are getting high participation rates. Again, like US states with fewer restrictions.

It doesn't seem very difficult for anybody to participate in these requests.  Stores/restaurants/bars still open but work from home?  I'm sure there is more to it than that.  We're going to feel kind of dumb if this works.

[DQ12]

Sweden has been distancing. It's just not mandatory. Like some US states.

Pretty lax distancing.  Seems more "do your best"

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars.

And they are getting high participation rates. Again, like US states with fewer restrictions.

Are any US schools open?  Are bars allowed to be open anywhere?

[bucket]

Sounds good.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1252677609810468865

Yep. Good.

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1253049457924542464

Whistleblower complaint filed! 

[michigancat]

Sweden has been distancing. It's just not mandatory. Like some US states.

Pretty lax distancing.  Seems more "do your best"

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars.

And they are getting high participation rates. Again, like US states with fewer restrictions.

Are any US schools open?  Are bars allowed to be open anywhere?

that was the other interesting assumption Sweden is making. (I'm guessing schools for students over 16 are closed?)

https://twitter.com/olibiermann/status/1252929452578934784

[kim carnes]

Sweden has been distancing. It's just not mandatory. Like some US states.

Pretty lax distancing.  Seems more "do your best"

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars.

And they are getting high participation rates. Again, like US states with fewer restrictions.

It doesn't seem very difficult for anybody to participate in these requests.  Stores/restaurants/bars still open but work from home?  I'm sure there is more to it than that.  We're going to feel kind of dumb if this works.

What are u even talking about?  We’ve already seen what happens if the virus is allowed to spread undeterred in urban centers.  Just shut up. 

[michigancat]

I can't imagine many NYC residents are going to reflect back on this and think "gee, we should have done less to slow the spread". It'll be different in Wichita

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Someone want to summarize the swede numbers while I am on this zoom call?

18 deaths per million vs. our 7.6
9 per thousand tested vs. our 11
11.5% CFR vs. our 5.5%

but thinking they are at heard immunity "within weeks"

That's the key. Extreme shutdown orders likely help to "flatten the curve," but they also likely prolong the curve. I think Sweden's approach will likely be vindicated. Here's an interesting interview with a key architect of their approach explaining why.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Also, here's in interesting, simple statistical analysis comparing the states and countries that imposed shutdowns to those that simply recommended less draconian social distancing measures.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

and we had to flatten the curve based on the models that our hospitals would be overrun.  Everybody knew that would lengthen the curve too, that's not groundbreaking info.  Guess we'll know if Sweden is vindicated in 18-24 months.  Right now their deaths per million are real high.

I'm not disputing what the models said, but I think with the exception of NYC the models may have way exaggerated the risk of overrunning the healthcare system. One of the many ironies of our response is that census levels have plummeted for a great many hospitals due to these shutdown orders, causing a lot of financial hardship. My wife is under contract and she was still asked to take a voluntary paycut. It's crazy.

[Phil Titola]

Sweden has been distancing. It's just not mandatory. Like some US states.

Pretty lax distancing.  Seems more "do your best"

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars.

And they are getting high participation rates. Again, like US states with fewer restrictions.

It doesn't seem very difficult for anybody to participate in these requests.  Stores/restaurants/bars still open but work from home?  I'm sure there is more to it than that.  We're going to feel kind of dumb if this works.

What are u even talking about?  We’ve already seen what happens if the virus is allowed to spread undeterred in urban centers.  Just shut up.

I tend to agree with you but the Sweden situation interests me as another way a country handled this. 

[DQ12]

Almost 400 fewer deaths reported today than last wednesday.  That's encouraging news.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

I can't imagine many NYC residents are going to reflect back on this and think "gee, we should have done less to slow the spread". It'll be different in Wichita

Well yes, but that's kind of the point. Nobody really thinks that actions appropriate for NYC were likewise appropriate for most of the rest of the country, right? There's not much point in arguing in the abstract here. Let's get specific...

Kansas overreacted. We overreacted in shutting down schools for the rest of the year instead of taking a more incremental approach. We overreacted in issuing a one-size-fits-all statewide stay-at-home order when JOCO/WDOT is vastly different from the rest of the state. Our stay-at-home order was probably never going to be necessary or effective anyway given how many "essential" business remained open, but it sure managed to inflict a lot of damage in the meantime. We're looking at a tax revenue shortfall of over a billion dollars this year. Kansas screwed up. And I sympathize with Kelly making some tough decisions at the time, but it doesn't mean we keep going down this road.

[Phil Titola]

You are arguing it's an overaction but the same thing can still happen in Wichita and won't have the capacity to treat everyone.

Arguing it would never happen without controls is idiotic

[michigancat]

Someone want to summarize the swede numbers while I am on this zoom call?

18 deaths per million vs. our 7.6
9 per thousand tested vs. our 11
11.5% CFR vs. our 5.5%

but thinking they are at heard immunity "within weeks"

That's the key. Extreme shutdown orders likely help to "flatten the curve," but they also likely prolong the curve. I think Sweden's approach will likely be vindicated. Here's an interesting interview with a key architect of their approach explaining why.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Also, here's in interesting, simple statistical analysis comparing the states and countries that imposed shutdowns to those that simply recommended less draconian social distancing measures.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

and we had to flatten the curve based on the models that our hospitals would be overrun.  Everybody knew that would lengthen the curve too, that's not groundbreaking info.  Guess we'll know if Sweden is vindicated in 18-24 months.  Right now their deaths per million are real high.

I'm not disputing what the models said, but I think with the exception of NYC the models may have way exaggerated the risk of overrunning the healthcare system. One of the many ironies of our response is that census levels have plummeted for a great many hospitals due to these shutdown orders, causing a lot of financial hardship. My wife is under contract and she was still asked to take a voluntary paycut. It's crazy.

Agreed, it's crazy that our health care system has a financial incentive to hospitalize as many people as possible

[kim carnes]

Someone want to summarize the swede numbers while I am on this zoom call?

18 deaths per million vs. our 7.6
9 per thousand tested vs. our 11
11.5% CFR vs. our 5.5%

but thinking they are at heard immunity "within weeks"

That's the key. Extreme shutdown orders likely help to "flatten the curve," but they also likely prolong the curve. I think Sweden's approach will likely be vindicated. Here's an interesting interview with a key architect of their approach explaining why.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Also, here's in interesting, simple statistical analysis comparing the states and countries that imposed shutdowns to those that simply recommended less draconian social distancing measures.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

and we had to flatten the curve based on the models that our hospitals would be overrun.  Everybody knew that would lengthen the curve too, that's not groundbreaking info.  Guess we'll know if Sweden is vindicated in 18-24 months.  Right now their deaths per million are real high.

I'm not disputing what the models said, but I think with the exception of NYC the models may have way exaggerated the risk of overrunning the healthcare system. One of the many ironies of our response is that census levels have plummeted for a great many hospitals due to these shutdown orders, causing a lot of financial hardship. My wife is under contract and she was still asked to take a voluntary paycut. It's crazy.

Agreed, it's crazy that our health care system has a financial incentive to hospitalize as many people as possible

They’re down bc of a reduction in elective surgeries.  Keyword being elective.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Someone want to summarize the swede numbers while I am on this zoom call?

18 deaths per million vs. our 7.6
9 per thousand tested vs. our 11
11.5% CFR vs. our 5.5%

but thinking they are at heard immunity "within weeks"

That's the key. Extreme shutdown orders likely help to "flatten the curve," but they also likely prolong the curve. I think Sweden's approach will likely be vindicated. Here's an interesting interview with a key architect of their approach explaining why.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Also, here's in interesting, simple statistical analysis comparing the states and countries that imposed shutdowns to those that simply recommended less draconian social distancing measures.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

and we had to flatten the curve based on the models that our hospitals would be overrun.  Everybody knew that would lengthen the curve too, that's not groundbreaking info.  Guess we'll know if Sweden is vindicated in 18-24 months.  Right now their deaths per million are real high.

I'm not disputing what the models said, but I think with the exception of NYC the models may have way exaggerated the risk of overrunning the healthcare system. One of the many ironies of our response is that census levels have plummeted for a great many hospitals due to these shutdown orders, causing a lot of financial hardship. My wife is under contract and she was still asked to take a voluntary paycut. It's crazy.

Agreed, it's crazy that our health care system has a financial incentive to hospitalize as many people as possible

Rusty are you just trolling or being serious? Are you saying endoscopies and knee replacements are frivolous? There is a ton of necessary care being cancelled and delayed because of the shutdown.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

You are arguing it's an overaction but the same thing can still happen in Wichita and won't have the capacity to treat everyone.

Arguing it would never happen without controls is idiotic

Come on now. That’s pretty silly to say that Wichita is at comparable risk to NYC. We’ve got to start using some common sense here. Hell, even the models at this point seem to be recognizing the greater importance of population density.

[michigancat]

Someone want to summarize the swede numbers while I am on this zoom call?

18 deaths per million vs. our 7.6
9 per thousand tested vs. our 11
11.5% CFR vs. our 5.5%

but thinking they are at heard immunity "within weeks"

That's the key. Extreme shutdown orders likely help to "flatten the curve," but they also likely prolong the curve. I think Sweden's approach will likely be vindicated. Here's an interesting interview with a key architect of their approach explaining why.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Also, here's in interesting, simple statistical analysis comparing the states and countries that imposed shutdowns to those that simply recommended less draconian social distancing measures.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

and we had to flatten the curve based on the models that our hospitals would be overrun.  Everybody knew that would lengthen the curve too, that's not groundbreaking info.  Guess we'll know if Sweden is vindicated in 18-24 months.  Right now their deaths per million are real high.

I'm not disputing what the models said, but I think with the exception of NYC the models may have way exaggerated the risk of overrunning the healthcare system. One of the many ironies of our response is that census levels have plummeted for a great many hospitals due to these shutdown orders, causing a lot of financial hardship. My wife is under contract and she was still asked to take a voluntary paycut. It's crazy.

Agreed, it's crazy that our health care system has a financial incentive to hospitalize as many people as possible

Rusty are you just trolling or being serious? Are you saying endoscopies and knee replacements are frivolous? There is a ton of necessary care being cancelled and delayed because of the shutdown.

I don't think I said endoscopies and knee replacements are frivolous.




Just checked, turns out I didn't say those things.

[Phil Titola]

You are arguing it's an overaction but the same thing can still happen in Wichita and won't have the capacity to treat everyone.

Arguing it would never happen without controls is idiotic

Come on now. That’s pretty silly to say that Wichita is at comparable risk to NYC. We’ve got to start using some common sense here. Hell, even the models at this point seem to be recognizing the greater importance of population density.

Lack of density in say a Wichita also means they have less capacity to handle an outbreak that could break out without monitoring / testing that we didn't have when the lockdowns started (and still don't have).

Blaming "cities" is always fun way to fool yourself in believing "that can't happen here"

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/are-crowded-cities-the-reason-for-the-covid-19-pandemic/

[chum1]

Lol. Better late than never.

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1253089437095022592
https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1253094358036987904

[Phil Titola]

Lol. Better late than never.

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1253089437095022592
https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1253094358036987904

Is GA changing their mind?

[chum1]

Is GA changing their mind?

They may decide to after all of this.

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1253097401071677447

[chum1]

It's up to the states to decide if they want to be thrown under the bus!

[treysolid]

if the numbers are legit, there were ~310,000 new tests today 

[treysolid]

Personally, I think 500,000 tests a day should be our floor.

[wetwillie]

Staggering to think it would take almost two years to test everyone in the US at 500k a day.