CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[bucket]

https://twitter.com/pklinkne/status/1239212239263055872

3% mortality rate!  Ha!  People using that as a mortality rate are either clueless or fear mongering.  It is much more likely that the mortality rate is 0.5% than it is 3%.

Moreover, there is no adjustment for age of death in those statistics.  Again either as a result of someone who is clueless or a fear mongerer.

Correct, but gullible hysterical little girls repeat bullshit like this nonstop in the twitter echo-sphere.

What exactly is bullshit about a 3% mortality rate? Is there other information out there that I'm not aware of?

[michigancat]

Guys, let’s just see how many people die, then we can do a proper risk assessment before we implement controls instead of using the data we have now. Also, if they’re too old to ski they don’t count.

If only people were using the data we have now and critically thinking about the costs and benefits of different actions.

Instead, everything is being directed by public health people and epidemiologists.  They are great for providing information on public health and epidemics, but they view the problem through a narrow prism where the only objective in life is slowing the spread of a disease or limiting the number of deaths.  They are not so great at balancing those benefits with the costs and no decision makers are actually considering the costs and benefits when implementing these policies.  They are not even considering the number of deaths they will cause through increased suicides, depression, increased alcohol consumption, increased drug use, etc.

The economic impact will also need to be addressed, I don't think anyone advocating for shutting down bars is ignoring that.

[Justwin]

https://twitter.com/pklinkne/status/1239212239263055872

3% mortality rate!  Ha!  People using that as a mortality rate are either clueless or fear mongering.  It is much more likely that the mortality rate is 0.5% than it is 3%.

Moreover, there is no adjustment for age of death in those statistics.  Again either as a result of someone who is clueless or a fear mongerer.

Correct, but gullible hysterical little girls repeat bullshit like this nonstop in the twitter echo-sphere.

What exactly is bullshit about a 3% mortality rate? Is there other information out there that I'm not aware of?

Epidemiologists and disease modelers studying Covid-19 told Vox a more reliable global case fatality rate is about 1 percent — but there’s still a lot we have to learn about the disease. And even when we better understand how deadly this virus is, it’s likely to look pretty different country to country.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

From earlier in the thread.

[Dugout DickStone]

When trump shuts stuff down will kaz call him a little girl or be forced to s his own d?  Or tuck his tail and dax?

[sys]

In the meantime, when I walk the dog, I'm trying to stop at the places I still have friends working at and getting stuff to go and tipping 100%.

trim, don't do that.

[sys]

https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/1239239417715396609

this is incredibly encouraging.  we've really mumped up so far, but we still have time.  most of the country is well behind where lodi was when they shut down.

[sys]

Now do airports. People are too stupid enough to stay away from them and at risk others with their crap.

anyone who is right now sitting in their home and is leaving for a vacation or some standard issue business trip is really stupid.  but, my understanding is that a lot of the traffic in airports this weekend consists of people returning home, and really, they don't have any better option.

[Justwin]

Guys, let’s just see how many people die, then we can do a proper risk assessment before we implement controls instead of using the data we have now. Also, if they’re too old to ski they don’t count.

If only people were using the data we have now and critically thinking about the costs and benefits of different actions.

Instead, everything is being directed by public health people and epidemiologists.  They are great for providing information on public health and epidemics, but they view the problem through a narrow prism where the only objective in life is slowing the spread of a disease or limiting the number of deaths.  They are not so great at balancing those benefits with the costs and no decision makers are actually considering the costs and benefits when implementing these policies.  They are not even considering the number of deaths they will cause through increased suicides, depression, increased alcohol consumption, increased drug use, etc.

The economic impact will also need to be addressed, I don't think anyone advocating for shutting down bars is ignoring that.

If your solution to the economic impact is giving people affected by the shutdowns money, and you don't weigh how much money you have to give out against the benefits of the shut downs, you're not including the economic costs in your cost-benefit analysis.

[Trim]

In the meantime, when I walk the dog, I'm trying to stop at the places I still have friends working at and getting stuff to go and tipping 100%.

trim, don't do that.

It's really easy to volunteer others to go without getting paid.

[bucket]

https://twitter.com/pklinkne/status/1239212239263055872

3% mortality rate!  Ha!  People using that as a mortality rate are either clueless or fear mongering.  It is much more likely that the mortality rate is 0.5% than it is 3%.

Moreover, there is no adjustment for age of death in those statistics.  Again either as a result of someone who is clueless or a fear mongerer.

Correct, but gullible hysterical little girls repeat bullshit like this nonstop in the twitter echo-sphere.

What exactly is bullshit about a 3% mortality rate? Is there other information out there that I'm not aware of?

Epidemiologists and disease modelers studying Covid-19 told Vox a more reliable global case fatality rate is about 1 percent — but there’s still a lot we have to learn about the disease. And even when we better understand how deadly this virus is, it’s likely to look pretty different country to country.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

From earlier in the thread.

I have read that the mortality rate in China is below 3%, but that it's much higher in Italy. Granted, Italy has more senior citizens. It'd probably be better to focus on the mortality rate on vulnerable populations.

[bucket]

When trump shuts stuff down will kaz call him a little girl or be forced to s his own d?  Or tuck his tail and dax?

Dax is a tough nut to crack. He wasn't calling Coronavirus a media created hysteria and he defended much dumber stuff so not sure why he's missing now of all times.

[steve dave]

You can track where you may have been exposed by our local cases. One carrier loves to get shitfaced all day long.

[Spracne]

You can track where you may have been exposed by our local cases. One carrier loves to get shitfaced all day long.

Lol

[bucket]

That person sounds fun. Perhaps I'll friend them if they survive the virus.

[mocat]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1239173717080657921?s=19

[sys]

It's really easy to volunteer others to go without getting paid.

getting takeout isn't the worst thing in the world, but it certainly isn't the best thing either.


people will be taken care of, it's just going to take things getting a little worse before what now seems politically difficult becomes politically expedient.  it's not a good idea to do things liable to further spread the disease in the meantime.  especially living where you live.

[michigancat]

In the meantime, when I walk the dog, I'm trying to stop at the places I still have friends working at and getting stuff to go and tipping 100%.

trim, don't do that.

It's really easy to volunteer others to go without getting paid.

Buy gift cards and venmo tips but seriously consider avoiding contact. What if you infect them and they infect an elderly parent they're in contact with? I get that it's scary and admire that you're concerned with their well-being, but I imagine Seattle will have very strong eviction and utility shutoff moratoriums if they don't already and losing their income for a month won't be as painful as hospital bills or death caused by an infection.

[steve dave]

IRL SW KS Facebook post



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[michigancat]

Guys, let’s just see how many people die, then we can do a proper risk assessment before we implement controls instead of using the data we have now. Also, if they’re too old to ski they don’t count.

If only people were using the data we have now and critically thinking about the costs and benefits of different actions.

Instead, everything is being directed by public health people and epidemiologists.  They are great for providing information on public health and epidemics, but they view the problem through a narrow prism where the only objective in life is slowing the spread of a disease or limiting the number of deaths.  They are not so great at balancing those benefits with the costs and no decision makers are actually considering the costs and benefits when implementing these policies.  They are not even considering the number of deaths they will cause through increased suicides, depression, increased alcohol consumption, increased drug use, etc.

The economic impact will also need to be addressed, I don't think anyone advocating for shutting down bars is ignoring that.

If your solution to the economic impact is giving people affected by the shutdowns money, and you don't weigh how much money you have to give out against the benefits of the shut downs, you're not including the economic costs in your cost-benefit analysis.

Oh I've done that analysis just like you have

[steve dave]

And another




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sys]

Italy has both a horrifically old population (the key risk demo) and shitty healthcare.

this is not at all true.  i'm not going to post a link, because i spent a few minutes googling and the various rankings i saw were all over the place and some/many seem to include criteria not particularly meaningful to this situation but everything i saw had italy ranked as one of the better health care systems in the world.

[Justwin]

Guys, let’s just see how many people die, then we can do a proper risk assessment before we implement controls instead of using the data we have now. Also, if they’re too old to ski they don’t count.

If only people were using the data we have now and critically thinking about the costs and benefits of different actions.

Instead, everything is being directed by public health people and epidemiologists.  They are great for providing information on public health and epidemics, but they view the problem through a narrow prism where the only objective in life is slowing the spread of a disease or limiting the number of deaths.  They are not so great at balancing those benefits with the costs and no decision makers are actually considering the costs and benefits when implementing these policies.  They are not even considering the number of deaths they will cause through increased suicides, depression, increased alcohol consumption, increased drug use, etc.

The economic impact will also need to be addressed, I don't think anyone advocating for shutting down bars is ignoring that.

If your solution to the economic impact is giving people affected by the shutdowns money, and you don't weigh how much money you have to give out against the benefits of the shut downs, you're not including the economic costs in your cost-benefit analysis.

Oh I've done that analysis just like you have

Have you?  I've done some back of the envelope calculations and the benefits are looking pretty meager and the costs pretty substantial.

[Spracne]

Italy has both a horrifically old population (the key risk demo) and shitty healthcare.

this is not at all true.  i'm not going to post a link, because i spent a few minutes googling and the various rankings i saw were all over the place and some/many seem to include criteria not particularly meaningful to this situation but everything i saw had italy ranked as one of the better health care systems in the world.

Then it's only partially true, because Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world. That is easy to verify.

[TheHamburglar]

Whoever is doing the JustWin sock, you got us. “I did some back of the envelope calculations” is pretty funny, but too much of a tell.

[sys]

yeah, i didn't see any easy way to edit that part of his statement out of the quote; i just figured people could puzzle out what part i was responding to.