Author Topic: Tesla  (Read 8376 times)

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Offline steve dave

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Tesla
« on: April 14, 2016, 05:47:19 PM »
I reserved a Tesla Model 3 the day they opened availability. What do you guys put the odds of me eventually taking delivery of it at?


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Offline steve dave

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2016, 05:49:11 PM »
If I could get it in 2017 I'd say like 90%. But I'm guessing it'll be late '18. I don't know if I wait that long. THOUGHTS?

Offline steve dave

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2016, 05:49:21 PM »
1k UR points tho

Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2016, 05:59:59 PM »
base model or optioned out?


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Offline steve dave

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2016, 06:05:47 PM »
Can't pick options yet

Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2016, 06:14:11 PM »
when you can pick them i mean.  when tesla builds their cars, they build the high margin cars first.  these are the optioned out model 3's that will compare in price to a mercedes AMG (~$60k).  once they get through those, they begin on the base models.  the problem is that the folks who buy the base models will probably not be getting the fed tax credit because by then, enough models will have been sold by tesla (+200k) that the credit will at least be partially phased out, if not completely gone. 

so basically, depending on what options you want and how much you want to spend will determine when you get your car.  it could pay to get more options that will actually reduce the cost by still qualifying for the credit before it's gone. ($12,500)


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Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2016, 06:26:16 PM »
that is to say, when they build their new model cars and have, for example, 100 orders for the model 3,  they're going to start with the expensive model 3's and work their way down to the guy who is getting bare bones.


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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2016, 06:39:15 PM »
Sounds like a more high stakes version of go fund me.  It looks like a great car though.
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Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2016, 06:45:32 PM »
Sounds like a more high stakes version of go fund me.

except tesla's market cap is $34B


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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2016, 06:51:08 PM »
I should leave the analogies to catzacker
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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2016, 06:56:07 PM »
2Q19 :Crybaby:

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2016, 06:58:09 PM »
Booked mine the same day as well and in store (dunno if you did that at all sd or if you did it online). 'Clams is right on how they will do it, building the most expensive model and then moving on to the base. I guess it all really depends on how they are actually able to ramp up production, which is obviously dubious at best. If they are able to get to the "500k/year" pretty quick, let alone getting it to production, everyone who ordered so far (335k) will get all if not most of the credit, if only cause the tax credit doesn't stop right when 200k cars are made, there is like a quarter (or 2, so 3 or 6 months after the number is hit) that the full credit still applies, and then it goes to 50% for another 3-6 months, and then it totally goes away.

Basically you are near the top of Tesla's shipment if:

-Most Expensive Model (all options)
-West Coast/location based (Elon said West Coast customers would get first due to easier shipping and then move east)
-Time of deposit
-Deposit in store vs online (especially day of, Elon seemed to make a point that in store would get special gifts and priority, which they would get anyways since online didn't happen until much later that night)

My expectation is to get mine before my 30th birthday (Dec '18). I will get a few options but not all (my budget is ~40k and that number is solely based off of model s prices for options, so it will be different the question is how much), I'm in KC, and I got it about noon the day of in store. But who knows, while I love the idea and the cars, they have not hit a single deadline like ever, so deliveries starting late 2017" could easily be pushed starting "mid 2019" hopefully no on it being that long.
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Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2016, 07:31:22 PM »
If they are able to get to the "500k/year" pretty quick, let alone getting it to production, everyone who ordered so far (335k) will get all if not most of the credit, if only cause the tax credit doesn't stop right when 200k cars are made, there is like a quarter (or 2, so 3 or 6 months after the number is hit) that the full credit still applies, and then it goes to 50% for another 3-6 months, and then it totally goes away.

the fed tax credit phase out begins at 200k production vehicles.  then 6 mo of 50%, then 6 mo of 25%, then 0.  i'm not sure where you got your info from, son, but check irs irc 30d.

Quote
The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period. After December 31, 2009, a vehicle that qualifies for a credit under § 30 does not qualify for the credit under § 30D.

you can't assume that tesla is going to hit 200k in february 201x

some states like colorado have another $6k with no phase out on top of the fed credit



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Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2016, 07:33:04 PM »
what we have here is a good old fashioned fed ev tax credit-off

but tbh, you shouldn't be buying one of these cars if you're banking on the credit anyway.  and i think everyone in this thread is doing just that, you sob's.


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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2016, 07:57:19 PM »
If they are able to get to the "500k/year" pretty quick, let alone getting it to production, everyone who ordered so far (335k) will get all if not most of the credit, if only cause the tax credit doesn't stop right when 200k cars are made, there is like a quarter (or 2, so 3 or 6 months after the number is hit) that the full credit still applies, and then it goes to 50% for another 3-6 months, and then it totally goes away.

the fed tax credit phase out begins at 200k production vehicles.  then 6 mo of 50%, then 6 mo of 25%, then 0.  i'm not sure where you got your info from, son, but check irs irc 30d.

Quote
The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period. After December 31, 2009, a vehicle that qualifies for a credit under § 30 does not qualify for the credit under § 30D.

you can't assume that tesla is going to hit 200k in february 201x

some states like colorado have another $6k with no phase out on top of the fed credit

1) Way to not read at all what I wrote, since basically what I said is exactly what you put (only thing I was unsure about what the actual time frame which I admitted to (1Q vs 2Q) of the phase out and missed the 25% part, sue me)

2) I didn't assume that at all Tesla would be making 335k in 1 quarter, let alone 3, but if they hit it right (not likely) you could push out a ton of cars in Q1, hit 200k during that Q, and then have Q2 and Q3 still at 100% fed refund and maybe get 100k full bore.

3) I don't care about state refunds cause KS is not CO

4) Not banking on the credit at all, I'm not poors clams jesus
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Offline pissclams

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2016, 08:06:23 PM »
3) take it down a notch, son.  i read your post 3 times and either i'm special or you are, but what you typed didn't make any sense

e) i don't care where you live, this thread and my post wasn't solely focused on your WHORE ass

(N i don't care if you're banking on a credit or a debit, just mentioning that most won't be getting one and shouldn't count on one, son

6><  i don't  know why anyone would buy a car from a manufacturer who can't seem to produce a car without an assload of recalls

R) sal perez


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Re: Tesla
« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2016, 08:37:17 PM »
Mods please rename to tax law thread TIA

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2016, 08:40:10 PM »
Mods please rename to tax law thread TIA

one of my favorite classes at k-state!!  tbt, did you take/like it?


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Tesla
« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2016, 08:42:02 PM »
Mods please rename to tax law thread TIA

one of my favorite classes at k-state!!  tbt, did you take/like it?

Finance and accounting were my least favorite courses I ever took at KSU, in that order.

Now you want to talk theoretical physics and applied math... :excited:

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #19 on: April 14, 2016, 08:42:56 PM »
So no, I hate tax law

Offline steve dave

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Tesla
« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2016, 09:11:37 PM »
Yeah, I know all that. Without knowing the options I don't know what I'd get. Assume they would bring it to around 50k.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2016, 09:12:23 PM »
Do they a bunch of superchargers in sarpy county?
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Offline steve dave

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2016, 09:14:43 PM »
Do they a bunch of superchargers in sarpy county?

Just one location

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2016, 09:18:45 PM »
Tesla dealership in Charlotte.  3 Cars.
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Offline Trim

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Re: Tesla
« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2016, 09:26:12 PM »
What's special about these cars?