It could be the end of K-State on a major conference level,
(I had to get that out there because you never know).
But you guys need to study things a little closer here.
Bowlsby is clearly taking a shot at all the schools trying to crawl their way into D1 football, and the smaller athletic department conferences.
Let me give you an example. The total revenue for every MAC athletic program in 2011 was $256 million. The Big 12's total revenue for every athletic program was $312 million more in 2011. That gap is just going to get wider.
K-State for example made more off of Total Media/NCAA/Conference distributions in 2013 than Ohio U made in total revenue for the entire athletic department. Not trying to pick on the MAC, but that's a fairly robust Mid-Major conference, the revenue differential gets even bigger when you go down the list. Yet, you've got all those schools with big plans to play D1 football.
I fully admit that if they want to get super exclusive that may not bode will for K-State, but IMO Bowlsby isn't talking about us, or TCU, he's talking about Middle Tennesee and Florida Atlantic and UTSA etc. etc.
If I understand this correctly, the larger conferences want to further categorize college athletics and basically dump the basketball/FCS footbal schools, like Dax said. The gripe isn't necessarily with anyone outside of the Top 5-8 conferences, but with the Gonzaga's, Butler's, new Big East schools, etc. They don't want non-football schools vetoing legislation that helps schools that play FBS football.
I think what this would mean is an end to D1 as we know it, the NCAA tournament as we know it, and a slight contraction of FBS (maybe down to 80-100 members). My personal belief is that you'll probably see the top 5 conferences stay where they are, but the AAC/MWC/CUSA/MAC/Sun Belt will probably all start shuffling and form, maybe, 2-3 conferences with the strongest possible members. AD's have been foreshadowing this for a long time. Joe Castiglone has gone on record saying that there would have to be consolidation at lower levels for them to stay competitive in the future.
I think paying players via a stipend is going to be the line in the sand. I've never felt like you'd have 30-40 large schools break away. That is too messy. All you have to do is put forth they "pay-to-play" criteria and that keeps it inclusive enough that you'll stay away from nasty political/lawsuit type stuff.
I think that by the end of this round of the BCS, we'll have 5-8 conferences, an 8-team playoff, a smaller basketball tournament, and a greater expansion of the FCS/Mid-Major realm.
The forces are in place now to turn college athletics into a semi-pro league. I don't think much can change that now. It's going to happen; it's just a matter of time.