I becoming plain to see that 16 is the magical number
4 16 team conferences (PAC 12 picks up 4 from the east coast)
After these form, people realize that it is stupid for the PAC 12 to have east coast teams and say we need to reorganize and have the new conferences make since. Conferences drop dead weight (hope K-State is still strong by then) and pick up school on the outside that are worth it.
Talks of COLUSION and congressional investigations cause the power teams to shed there tax exempt status in favor of Anti-Trust exemption.
NCAA loses influence with these 4 conferences as the presidents of these schools care less about the non power schools (why should they)
The non power schools leave the NCAA and from a new organization.
Power schools roll in dough.
. . . or the power schools leave the NCAA and form their own organization.
In addition, there will be academic bodies that will file suit to have the "power" athletic programs disassociated (and I know about disassociation) from the universities entirely.
This won't happen for a couple of reasons. First of all a breakaway organization won't be able to fund all of their olympic sports, which means there is a title IX problem. The revenue from the NCAA tournament allows them to fund all of these sports that lose money. Completely breaking away is a risky proposition, because whatever TV money they get for a basketball tournament won't get anywhere close to what a NCAA tournament gets because of the sheer volume of content with a 68 team tournament.
I could see them breaking away in football only since the NCAA doesn't do much in FBS football anyway.
Please tell me what part of olympic sports at individual power schools (and fringe power schools) are funded solely by the NCAA tourney. . . I'll help, none.
The NCAA has a never ending TV contract for the NCAA tourney?
The current NCAA tourney payout is a known $ figure, and is divided up by a formula.
At the end of the day, more lucrative TV/Media Deals for conferences/individual schools, playoff and bowl payouts . . . and ultimately their own (new power school league association) basketball tourney payouts will dwarf current and projected NCAA tourney payouts on a school by school payout basis. Even at lil' ol K-State which benefitted from a nice NCAA tourney payout in FY 2012 has expense outlays for Olympic Sports which far exceed what the NCAA tourney payout is. John Currie is NOT sitting up in his office waiting for that NCAA tourney payout so he can pay Susie Fritz, or Cliff Revolto.
Schools like Texas, and many others burn the equivilant of their NCAA tourney payout on buying booze for their private jets.
What are you talking about, they all are. I'm not talking about funding at the individual schools, I'm talking about funding to run the damn sports. Money to run a national track and field championship comes from somewhere. You think running the CWS is free? You think schools like Duke, Wake Forrest, Baylor, Purdue, and Georgia Tech can afford to foot the bill for these things? All of that money comes from the NCAA tournament. Of course schools like Texas have "money to burn" (even though you don't get rich by thinking that way) but there are like 3 schools in the country that can think that way. At best breaking away for all sports would be a huge risk, anyone who looks at the business of sports knows this. Stop disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing, there is no way that you think that a certain number of schools are going to break away.
Based on the dollars in play, running championship events is a mere drop in the bucket. That's why there are many who question why the NCAA is allowed to keep their non-profit status. Based on all the information I have seen, the NCAA now nets about $700 to $800 million dollars a year just off the TV contract for the NCAA tourney, that doesn't count sponsors and everything else. While renting out the Superdome (for example) or other venues to host national events, and supporting them aren't cheap. That's not costing the NCAA $700-$800 million a year.
I am not disagreeing just for the sake of disagreeing either. With the numbers being floated out there for a Football Playoff tv revenues, coupled with major college postseason tourney TV revenues, you're talking well past $1 billion a year. You can rent a lot of really nice venues, and pay a lot of people to work those events when you're making over a billion bucks just on TV alone.
Again, that's not even counting major corporate sponsors, ticket sales, suite sales, local government incentives (or similar) etc. etc. etc.