Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[ArchE_Cat]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Matt Hayes, because now he has 100 more twitter followers who are Duke and UNC fans

[Pete]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both? 

[Emo EMAW]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

You want Duke playing UNC.  That's the value.

[bigwillie20]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

To water down the schedule for the big dogs even more

[ArchE_Cat]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

You want Duke playing UNC.  That's the value.

Combined with UK the SEC gets to crown themselves best bball confy

["storm"nut]

I becoming plain to see that 16 is the magical number

4 16 team conferences (PAC 12 picks up 4 from the east coast)

After these form, people realize that it is stupid for the PAC 12 to have east coast teams and say we need to reorganize and have the new conferences make since. Conferences drop dead weight (hope K-State is still strong by then) and pick up school on the outside that are worth it.

Talks of COLUSION and congressional investigations cause the power teams to shed there tax exempt status in favor of Anti-Trust exemption.

NCAA loses influence with these 4 conferences as the presidents of these schools care less about the non power schools (why should they)

The non power schools leave the NCAA and from a new organization.

Power schools roll in dough.

[sonofdaxjones]

I becoming plain to see that 16 is the magical number

4 16 team conferences (PAC 12 picks up 4 from the east coast)

After these form, people realize that it is stupid for the PAC 12 to have east coast teams and say we need to reorganize and have the new conferences make since. Conferences drop dead weight (hope K-State is still strong by then) and pick up school on the outside that are worth it.

Talks of COLUSION and congressional investigations cause the power teams to shed there tax exempt status in favor of Anti-Trust exemption.

NCAA loses influence with these 4 conferences as the presidents of these schools care less about the non power schools (why should they)

The non power schools leave the NCAA and from a new organization.

Power schools roll in dough.

. . . or the power schools leave the NCAA and form their own organization.

In addition, there will be academic bodies that will file suit to have the "power" athletic programs disassociated (and I know about disassociation) from the universities entirely.   

[Pete]

So, right now it's a big Mexican standoff...do I have this right?

The big 10 and SEC are waiting for 1) the $50M buyout is officially killed/reduced through litigation, OR 2) one or more ACC schools (who aren't UNC) to join another conference, thus creating a frenzy regardless of buyout, and they can have their choice of the others.

Am I right in assuming that the big 10 and the SEC are both tussling over UNC right now?  I kinda think UNC is the gem that both have at the top of their lists.

[Panjandrum]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

I was being sarcastic.  It's a fantastic idea.

UNC/Duke to the SEC would be a gigantic add for them.  It's the best case scenario for the SEC and a Tier 3 network.

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678264#msg678264

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678296#msg678296

["storm"nut]

I becoming plain to see that 16 is the magical number

4 16 team conferences (PAC 12 picks up 4 from the east coast)

After these form, people realize that it is stupid for the PAC 12 to have east coast teams and say we need to reorganize and have the new conferences make since. Conferences drop dead weight (hope K-State is still strong by then) and pick up school on the outside that are worth it.

Talks of COLUSION and congressional investigations cause the power teams to shed there tax exempt status in favor of Anti-Trust exemption.

NCAA loses influence with these 4 conferences as the presidents of these schools care less about the non power schools (why should they)

The non power schools leave the NCAA and from a new organization.

Power schools roll in dough.

. . . or the power schools leave the NCAA and form their own organization.

In addition, there will be academic bodies that will file suit to have the "power" athletic programs disassociated (and I know about disassociation) from the universities entirely.

In essence the Power school already control the NCAA. Sure they want a organization of there own but why spend the resources to make a new one when to have all you want you have to just have the bottom feeders leave.

[Belvis Noland]

Pro Tip - the people  who decide whether or not GOR is enforceable are the same ones who have something to lose if they are enforceable.  it's the same crap w/ exit fees.

GOR are the opposite of Exit Fees.  With GORs, the Conference has the TV revenue and the exiting University would have to sue to get their share.  With Exit Fees, the University has the money and the Conference has to sue to get their penalty. 

Basically, it would seem, the Conference is in a much stronger position with GOR.

[Pete]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

I was being sarcastic.  It's a fantastic idea.

UNC/Duke to the SEC would be a gigantic add for them.  It's the best case scenario for the SEC and a Tier 3 network.

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678264#msg678264

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678296#msg678296

Wouldn't they rather have Virginia and UNC, for example?  That's the cable thing, right?  Two from the same state goes against the grain doesn't it?

[sonofdaxjones]

I becoming plain to see that 16 is the magical number

4 16 team conferences (PAC 12 picks up 4 from the east coast)

After these form, people realize that it is stupid for the PAC 12 to have east coast teams and say we need to reorganize and have the new conferences make since. Conferences drop dead weight (hope K-State is still strong by then) and pick up school on the outside that are worth it.

Talks of COLUSION and congressional investigations cause the power teams to shed there tax exempt status in favor of Anti-Trust exemption.

NCAA loses influence with these 4 conferences as the presidents of these schools care less about the non power schools (why should they)

The non power schools leave the NCAA and from a new organization.

Power schools roll in dough.

. . . or the power schools leave the NCAA and form their own organization.

In addition, there will be academic bodies that will file suit to have the "power" athletic programs disassociated (and I know about disassociation) from the universities entirely.

In essence the Power school already control the NCAA. Sure they want a organization of there own but why spend the resources to make a new one when to have all you want you have to just have the bottom feeders leave.

The NCAA derives virtually no revenue from Football, it's almost all from basketball, the power schools know that they can have it all, and don't need the NCAA, at all.

["storm"nut]

So, right now it's a big Mexican standoff...do I have this right?

The big 10 and SEC are waiting for 1) the $50M buyout is officially killed/reduced through litigation, OR 2) one or more ACC schools (who aren't UNC) to join another conference, thus creating a frenzy regardless of buyout, and they can have their choice of the others.

Am I right in assuming that the big 10 and the SEC are both tussling over UNC right now?  I kinda think UNC is the gem that both have at the top of their lists.

How many school would it take for the ACC to vote to dissolve? I think the reason for the wait is to get the ducks in a row so that they can pluck that many schools from the ACC without it looking like COLUSION on the big 10, SEC, and BIG 12's part.

[Panjandrum]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

I was being sarcastic.  It's a fantastic idea.

UNC/Duke to the SEC would be a gigantic add for them.  It's the best case scenario for the SEC and a Tier 3 network.

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678264#msg678264

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678296#msg678296

Wouldn't they rather have Virginia and UNC, for example?  That's the cable thing, right?  Two from the same state goes against the grain doesn't it?

Except Duke basketball is more valuable than UNC anything, and it's probably not even close.

More people in Virginia are fans of UNC and Duke than they are UVA*.

* Empirical evidence by visiting family in Virginia and watching a bunch of UNC stuff with them.

[Panjandrum]

So, right now it's a big Mexican standoff...do I have this right?

The big 10 and SEC are waiting for 1) the $50M buyout is officially killed/reduced through litigation, OR 2) one or more ACC schools (who aren't UNC) to join another conference, thus creating a frenzy regardless of buyout, and they can have their choice of the others.

Am I right in assuming that the big 10 and the SEC are both tussling over UNC right now?  I kinda think UNC is the gem that both have at the top of their lists.

How many school would it take for the ACC to vote to dissolve? I think the reason for the wait is to get the ducks in a row so that they can pluck that many schools from the ACC without it looking like COLUSION on the big 10, SEC, and BIG 12's part.

The ACC won't dissolve.  They'll just rebuilt by taking the best of what's left.

That's how this works.  Historically, stronger conferences systematically pick the best of what's left to maximize value.

The systemic dumping of non-value schools happens as they flow down to awful conferences and then don't get added to a better conference when they're picked over.  See New Mexico State and Idaho.

[Pete]

Who is the most coveted ACC team at this point?  And, I guess by that I mean who would the SEC and big 10 fight over?

[sonofdaxjones]

Matt Hayes @Matt_HayesSN
1st and 10: #big 10 isn't finished expanding. And that means #UNC, #Duke to #SEC if #ACC implodes.

Huh.  Who ever would have thought that was a good idea?

Ya, that one doesn't make sense to me either.  I mean, I think they'd love UNC, but who needs both?

I was being sarcastic.  It's a fantastic idea.

UNC/Duke to the SEC would be a gigantic add for them.  It's the best case scenario for the SEC and a Tier 3 network.

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678264#msg678264

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=3457.msg678296#msg678296

Wouldn't they rather have Virginia and UNC, for example?  That's the cable thing, right?  Two from the same state goes against the grain doesn't it?

Except Duke basketball is more valuable than UNC anything, and it's probably not even close.
More people in Virginia are fans of UNC and Duke than they are UVA*.

* Empirical evidence by visiting family in Virginia and watching a bunch of UNC stuff with them.

There's a reason why ESPN treats the UNC-Duke rivalry they way it does . . . if there was a "not even close" scenario, ESPN wouldn't treat the 2 basketball games like they're the holy grail of college athletics.

["storm"nut]

So, right now it's a big Mexican standoff...do I have this right?

The big 10 and SEC are waiting for 1) the $50M buyout is officially killed/reduced through litigation, OR 2) one or more ACC schools (who aren't UNC) to join another conference, thus creating a frenzy regardless of buyout, and they can have their choice of the others.

Am I right in assuming that the big 10 and the SEC are both tussling over UNC right now?  I kinda think UNC is the gem that both have at the top of their lists.

How many school would it take for the ACC to vote to dissolve? I think the reason for the wait is to get the ducks in a row so that they can pluck that many schools from the ACC without it looking like COLUSION on the big 10, SEC, and BIG 12's part.

The ACC won't dissolve.  They'll just rebuilt by taking the best of what's left.

That's how this works.  Historically, stronger conferences systematically pick the best of what's left to maximize value.

The systemic dumping of non-value schools happens as they flow down to awful conferences and then don't get added to a better conference when they're picked over.  See New Mexico State and Idaho.

I would agree but I think there is a need from the other conferences for the ACC to die off.

[Panjandrum]

Who is the most coveted ACC team at this point?  And, I guess by that I mean who would the SEC and big 10 fight over?

Aside from ND, North Carolina is by far the most lucrative school "on the market".

[Panjandrum]

I would agree but I think there is a need from the other conferences for the ACC to die off.

There is no need.

Did the Big East need to die for everyone else to get new teams and better TV deals?

No.

["storm"nut]

I would agree but I think there is a need from the other conferences for the ACC to die off.

There is no need.

Did the Big East need to die for everyone else to get new teams and better TV deals?

No.

No but the easist route to get ride of the $50 Mill exit fee is thru the ACC dissolving just like the Big 12 when Texas wanted out.

[Pete]

Who is the most coveted ACC team at this point?  And, I guess by that I mean who would the SEC and big 10 fight over?

Aside from ND, North Carolina is by far the most lucrative school "on the market".

I agree. 

Sounds like most pundits agree that UNC is somewhat similar to ND, in that they will only leave their current situation at bayonet point. 

So, predict the big 10's move here.  Do they wait for the SEC and Big 12 to strike, banking on UNC still being there?   I think that they will.  Their "back up" plan could probably include taking anyone else from any conference one who is not Texas

[Panjandrum]

I would agree but I think there is a need from the other conferences for the ACC to die off.

There is no need.

Did the Big East need to die for everyone else to get new teams and better TV deals?

No.

No but the easist route to get ride of the $50 Mill exit fee is thru the ACC dissolving just like the Big 12 when Texas wanted out.

If Texas ever really wanted out, this conference would be dead by now.

And most schools in the ACC don't want to go anywhere.  Right now, the only school we know is jumpy is Florida State, for obvious reasons.

The easiest way to get out of the $50 million exit fee is for Maryland to prove it's crap and get out of the conference for, like, $15 or $16 million dollars.

[Panjandrum]

Follow #sbjiaf on Twitter right now.  Great stuff.

Greg Ellis @GE4Sports
Good stuff on hashtag #sbjiaf RT @kathleenhessert: For college sports; Sports Business Journal Intercollegiate Athletics Forum in NYC today