This take from nolewr - a poster on my home board. Its like a Mexican standoff - only TIMES 10:
It's an interesting stalemate:
FSU wouldn't mind leaving the ACC but doesn't want to go elsewhere without other regional buddies...
But the Big 12 wants FSU without its regional buddies watering down the money, so that's a stalemate at present.
Meanwhile...
FSU would jump at an SEC offer...
But the SEC wants the VA and NC markets...
But the VA and NC programs won't consider the SEC without an ACCgeddon produced by FSU leaving the conference.
The SEC could easily produce such an ACCgeddon by offering FSU, but they would then lose one of their target markets and FSU is too big a gorilla for them to offer.
The SEC would prefer the Big 12 to get FSU so they have a chance at VA and NC schools in the ensuing ACCgeddon.
But ESPN would prefer the ACC stay intact and won't offer the Big 12 enough money to take enough ACC teams to make FSU happy.
I think there are a lot of elements of truth in that comment.
We don't want to go past 12, FSU doesn't want to be on an island, ESPN doesn't want to cannibalize its own inventory, and the SEC has painted themselves into a corner by not being able to get Va Tech and A&M the first go around.
Best case scenario for everyone is that Penn State gets destroyed and kicked out of the Big Ten, the SEC offers them Mizzou with cash considerations and a AA shortstop, Arkansas and FSU jump to the Big 12, and the ACC just offers UConn and Rutgers to try and smoke out Notre Dame.
The Big 4 conferences all sit at a pretty tidy 12 teams,
the ACC and Big East live as high-level mid-major content farms, and everyone else becomes complete and total cannon fodder for the non-con.*
* For the record, my bolded statement is what I assume will eventually happen after the ACC loses a couple of teams to us and maybe the SEC if they really feel like 16 is the way to go.
